Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

[Edgy MD]

Our insanely popular series, which alphabetically looks into the future of Mets players, moves past the Manny A.'s and toward the left field warning track


Pos: LF
Born: 9/20/1978 in Trail, British Columbia, Canada (32 in 2011)
Acquired: Signed as a free agent from the Red Sox, 12/29/2009. (four years, $66 million, and a $17M club option in 2014, with a a$3M buyout)
2010 Stats:

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	BB-R WAR	FG WAR
95	401	348	48	90	20	6	6	47	10	0	44	91	.259	.347	.402	.749	105	140	7	5	0	4	3	1.1	1.4

(Check out those McReynoldsian stolen base numbers.)

Last Word: Last seen joking about the effects of his concussion, Bay is of course looking forward to a year of renewal and claims to be super-fully recovered. Bloggers are going back and forth on whether CitiField's dimensions are part of his issues (don't believe it). If you want more on where he's at, then listen to his chat with Kevin Burkhardt while draped in the creamy home whites, and try to avoid reading the comments below.

What do you expect of Jason Bay in 2011?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

28-33 HRs, 10-15 steals at a nice rate, OPS approaching .900 (with .380 or so in OBP). Clear head. Almost-absurdly polite clubhouse demeanor.

Do Terry Collins teams run? I wonder whether the Mets will see something of a downturn in SB numbers, if only because the light was so very green under both Willie and Jerry.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: 28-33 HRs, 10-15 steals at a nice rate, OPS approaching .900 (with .380 or so in OBP). Clear head. Almost-absurdly polite clubhouse demeanor. Do Terry Collins teams run? I wonder whether the Mets will see something of a downturn in SB numbers, if only because the light was so very green under both Willie and Jerry.

Was the light so green with jerry? Obviously a lot of the numbers are off with Reyes out much of 2009, but I feel like they weren't running enough, or smart enough, with him. The team, particularly in 2006, was smart aggressive but felt reckless with jerry. (especially David Wright's success rate. I'm going to have to look more closely at these numbers when I have a moment) I remember a lot more dancing around on the bases too that sseemed to fall to the wayside.

With Reyes and Pagan, and then Wright (if Castillo stays, he'd fit into the secondary tier as well) plus 'smart' base stealers in Bay and Beltran who won't steal 30 but will take advantage where they can, you'd have to think/hope that the Mets make use of that speed.


I expect a good year out of Bay. I expect if he'd finished the season he would've finished stronger too, but coming to camp being comfortable and having a lot of that 'get t oknow you' stuff out of the way can't hurt can it?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'll say about 25 home runs, and 90 runs batted in.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I think Reyes' absence DEFINITELY skews those numbers. Healthy, he steals more bases than a handful of teams.

Plus, look at what guys like Bay, Pagan and Wright did last year.

[seawolf17]

I expect McReynoldsian numbers as well.

[TransMonk]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'll say about 25 home runs, and 90 runs batted in.

I'll second this with a .275 average thrown in.

[Guest attgig]

the quesiton about terry collins running is an interesting one. This is kind of the whole moneyball philosophy coming down from up top.

Sandy said he'd pick a manager that carries out the philosophy of the front office. and with depodesta and ricardi, he has guys who anti-moneyball will accuse of never stealing....

I'll be very interested to see if the mets run as much as they have in the past. I'd love to see guys like joe morgan be perplexed as to how much the mets run when it's run by moneyball guys. but we'll see.

[TransMonk]

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/11/28/1839014/terry-collins-managerial-tendencies

Amazing Avenue wrote: In-Game Tactics Terry Collins loved himself some small ball. He was almost always considerably above average in both sacrifice hits and in attempted stolen bases. The difference between his tenure in Houston and the one in Anaheim was that in Houston, Collins had a relatively young team who cold run which he did not have in Anaheim. He realized this in his second season as the manager of the Angels and adapted, which culminated in his first below average year in attempted stolen bases as a manager. It wasn't a small margin either, the Angels ran 20% less than the league average in 1998. While in the National League, Collins was always above average in deploying the hit and run. I don't know if this had to do with him changing leagues or if he simply understood its stupidity, but in 1997-98 Collins stopped issuing intentional walks. All in all, Collins looks like a manager who adjusts to his environment. If the environment dictated to stop stealing bases, he stopped stealing bases. This is a very important factor when judging a manager. There are some managers, like Dusty Baker, who never seem to adjust to the situation at hand and use their strategies as if they were guidelines to success. So despite Collins fondness of small ball strategies, he'll hopefully adjust to the Mets and to Sandy Alderson's expectation of the contrary. (Bullpen usage was excluded because I could not control for context and it mostly has to do with the personnel at hand. If you had a good pitching staff, you didn't go to the bullpen as frequently. What I do know is that Collins was around average in bullpen usage and had an almost exactly average pitching staff. His starters averaged around 6.5 innings per start which would be a very high figure today but I do not know how that number was looked upon in the '90's.)

[Edgy MD]

Eddie Collins stole bases. Terry Collins will steal bases. One thing sabermetrics is suggests for managers is letting players play their games and not overusing managerial tactics to the point where you're forcing players into a system that doesn't suit their games.

In his prior places of employment, he was above average in stolen base attempts and (sorry to say) bunt attempts. His own testimony states that he'll run but he'll try to keep the running reponsible and high-percentage. That suggests that Bay should get his modest chances.

[Edgy MD]

Amazin' Avenue, yes, is a source of mine.

[seawolf17]

Dave Collins:

Stolen Bases
1980 NL 79 (3rd)
1981 NL 26 (4th)
1984 AL 60 (2nd)
1985 AL 29 (10th)
Career 395 (73rd)

[metirish]

Bay will lead the team in homers this season and runs batted in.....

[TransMonk]

metirish wrote: Bay will lead the team in homers this season and runs batted in.....

That could be good or bad.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

All-star! Not a starter, but I think he's going to have a great year and be one of our brightest lights.

[Guest attgig]

156 games played
27 hr.
99rbi
14sb
1cs
.284 ba
.366 obp
.490 slg

Nobody will complain about his defense.
His home/road splits will show a slight favor of road parks but only because 8 of his 27 home runs come in Yankee stadium and citizens bank park, with multi homerun games against cliff lee and cc sabathia.

[Fman99]

.363 BA, 48 HR, 130 RBI, 22 SB, 1 baby rescued from towering inferno, millions of women impregnated simply by witnessing his sheer awesomeness.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm pessimistic. His problem IMO wasn't the stadium so much as a slow bat.

He ought to have a better year, but I wouldn't expect anything too dramatic. I'm calling for a 5% performance improvement (OPS/OPS+ 787/111) and 150 more turns at-bat.

[MFS62]

Fman99 wrote: .363 BA, 48 HR, 130 RBI, 22 SB, 1 baby rescued from towering inferno, millions of women impregnated simply by witnessing his sheer awesomeness.

Careful there, Fman. There's only room for one Derek Jeter in town.

I go for the McReynolds comparison, too.
He'll overcome his Citi-itis, just as David did, in his second year there.

Later

[Vic Sage]

yeah but David's correction came at age 27, a hitter's peak.
Bay is 32, turning 33 next season. And I saw a slow bat, even before he rang his bell.

The McReynolds comps are apt, i think. And if you look at what the Little Rock Slacker did at a similar point in his career, it was around .260-.270ba / 15-25hr / 75-85 rbi

That sounds about right to me for Mr. Bay, as well, with maybe a few more RBI if Beltran and Wright have good years ahead of him.

[Benjamin Grimm]

To: Anyone who's been paying more attention than I have
Re: Jason Bay

How's he been doing this spring? Any reasons for optimism yet?

[TransMonk]

Through 3/12/11:

24 AB, 2 R, 7 H, 1 2B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 10 K, 0 SB, .292/.292/.333/.625

[Fman99]

How 2010 of him. Hitting a lot of singles and plating no one.

Fuckity fuck fuck. It's still only mid-March. He's got time to warm up.

[Guest El Segundo Escupidor]

Fman99 wrote: .363 BA, 48 HR, 130 RBI, 22 SB, 1 baby rescued from towering inferno, millions of women impregnated simply by witnessing his sheer awesomeness.

Christ, somebody took their happy pills this morning....

Vic Sage wrote: And if you look at what the Little Rock Slacker did [...].

...and somebody took their grumpy pills.


I agree more with the latter; OPS+ 114.

[seawolf17]

Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL.

[Ceetar]

seawolf17 wrote: Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL.

*mutters lots of swear words*

Why don't these guys have the decency to work out there little strains in February, not days before the games count?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

seawolf17 wrote: Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL.

Jesus Christmas. What a complete fucking bust

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: seawolf17 wrote: Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL. *mutters lots of swear words* Why don't these guys have the decency to work out there little strains in February, not days before the games count?

Or maybe come clean with the trainer before Nick Evans is put on waivers.

[Guest attgig]

who was the genius to put evans on waivers before the start of the season?

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Ceetar wrote: seawolf17 wrote: Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL. *mutters lots of swear words* Why don't these guys have the decency to work out there little strains in February, not days before the games count? Or maybe come clean with the trainer before Nick Evans is put on waivers.

They said he pulled it during BP today right?