Joe Morgan's Head Explodes

[Guest Edgy DC]

Felix Hernandez tops C.C. Sabathia for Cy Young.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Felix Hernandez tops C.C. Sabathia for Cy Young.

I'm sure Michael Kay will have a fit as well. an absolute fit. I hope he waits until 5.

I guessed enough old school folk would be, well, old school, and Price would end up winning.

[metirish]

with only 13 wins??????...but CC won 20.....Easy coast bias ...

[Guest Edgy DC]

C.C. didn't even score second.

Pitcher	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Points
Felix Hernandez, Mariners	21	2	3	1	1	167
David Price, Rays	4	15	7	1		111
CC Sabathia, Yankees	3	10	12	2	1	102
Jon Lester, Red Sox			1	9	12	33
Jered Weaver, Angels		1	2	6	2	24
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox			2	5	4	20
Cliff Lee, Mariners, Rangers			1	1	1	6
Rafael Soriano, Rays				1	3	5
Trevor Cahill, Athletics				1	2	4
Joakim Soria, Royals				1		2
Francisco Liriano, Twins					1	1
Justin Verlander, Tigers					1	1

[seawolf17]

Apparently, 18 voters listed Derek Jeter first, which is why Felix won; he was technically second.

[Frayed Knot]

There's two groups this is going to upset and I'm happy to see both get their panties in a knot

1) YLDBs who'll rant and rave about anti-Yanqui bias and jealousy yyybbb.

2) Non-baseball sports geeks.
When this question came up a lot at the tail end of the season the strictly baseball guys (Olney, Kurkjian, etc.) for the most part both supported and predicted King Felix to win. Five or six years back, they admitted, would be a completely different story but they now not only were they on board about the newer/better interpretation of stats and year-end records but believed most baseball writers "got it" also.
It's going to be the non-baseball guys, those multi-sport writers/announcers (who in my view hate baseball to begin with) who will denounce this as 'Geeks Gone Wild' and another step in baseball's demise before they start sermonizing about how 'Bob Gibson would have found a way to win those games' and other such horse-shit.

[Vic Sage]

first, the Mets hire a front office of Alderson-Depodesta-Ricciardi,
then, King Felix wins the AL CY over CC...

yes, folks, it's morning in Mets-America!

I'm practically giddy with a nearly unbearable lightness of being.

[metirish]

Frayed Knot wrote: There's two groups this is going to upset and I'm happy to see both get their panties in a knot 1) YLDBs who'll rant and rave about anti-Yanqui bias and jealousy yyybbb. 2) Non-baseball sports geeks. When this question came up a lot at the tail end of the season the strictly baseball guys (Olney, Kurkjian, etc.) for the most part both supported and predicted King Felix to win. Five or six years back, they admitted, would be a completely different story but they now not only were they on board about the newer/better interpretation of stats and year-end records but believed most baseball writers "got it" also. It's going to be the non-baseball guys, those multi-sport writers/announcers (who in my view hate baseball to begin with) who will denounce this as 'Geeks Gone Wild' and another step in baseball's demise before they start sermonizing about how 'Bob Gibson would have found a way to win those games' and other such horse-shit.

Peter Gammons via twitter

" Felix got what he deserved , and credit should go to those who have helped us "main-streamers" out of our boxes.

[bmfc1]

"I'm sure Michael Kay will have a fit as well. an absolute fit. I hope he waits until 5."

Sorry, the rant began as soon as the show started. He calls it not just a New York-bias but a "Yankee bias" (good call, FK). (Is this the same Yankee bias that awarded Gold Gloves to 3 MFYs?). LaGreca is telling him that he's wrong.

Kay: "The Yankees never get the benefit of the doubt."

[Gwreck]

Maybe now we can retroactively get Johan that 2008 Cy Young Award he deserved but was denied due to bad voting.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

"The revolution is over, Mr. Kay! Condolences! The tradition-dry-humping, logic-molesting idiots lost! My suggestion to you is simple: Get a link to Fangraphs and a CLUE, sir!"

[Guest themetfairy]

bmfc1 wrote: Kay: "The Yankees never get the benefit of the doubt."

Um, yeah, whatever Dude....

[Willets Point]

Well of course there's a pro-Yankee bias. The sports media and baseball people in general have been fawning over their every move for decades.

Oh wait, he mean anti-Yankee bias.

HA
HA
HA
HA
HA
HA
HA

That was a good one.

[seawolf17]

If he seriously thinks that, then he needs to ask Prince Derek to return his Gold Glove.

[metirish]

I wish the thread title was "Michael Kay's Head Explodes"

I mean, get a fucking grip man .

[dgwphotography]

Vic Sage wrote: first, the Mets hire a front office of Alderson-Depodesta-Ricciardi, then, King Felix wins the AL CY over CC... yes, folks, it's morning in Mets-America! I'm practically giddy with a nearly unbearable lightness of being.

This off-season is going too well so far.... I fear that this is just a dream, and will be awakened soon to a harsh reality...

[Guest Edgy DC]

This just in: Craig Swan has been retroactively awarded the 1978 Cy Young Award.

[metirish]

Edgy DC wrote: This just in: Craig Swan has been retroactively awarded the 1978 Cy Young Award.

Swanie will be chuffed he will

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Like. Fookin'. Clockwork.

(The title itself is hilarious.)

THE DARK SIDE TO OVERTAKE CY YOUNG AWARD By Murray Chass November 17, 2010 The standard for wins by an American League pitcher was lowered to 16 last year. It is about to be lowered even further � to 13. That�s the number of games Felix Hernandez won this past season, and I expect he will be announced Thursday as the A.L. Cy Young award winner. I could be wrong, of course, and I hope I am, but if I am, I will be surprised. By the time you read this, you may know if I am right or wrong. I have no inside information on which to base my belief. I have not surveyed the voters. I don�t even know who the voters are, and I wouldn�t try to find out. I base my belief on what has been floating around about Hernandez and his season statistics. The Seattle right-hander had the league�s lowest earned run average, 2.27; the lowest opposing batting average, .212; the most innings pitched, 249 1/3, and missed by two of having the most strikeouts (232). What he didn�t have was wins. When he won his last start of the season, he finished above .500 at 13-12. Just a few years ago a pitcher with a 13-12 record would never have been considered for the Cy Young award. But last year Zack Greinke won the A,L, award with 16 victories and Tim Lincecum won his second straight National League award with 15 wins. The development, I believe, is directly related to the growing influence of the new-fangled statistics which readers of this site know I have no use for, a fact that sends stats-freak denizens of the blogosphere into a stats-freak frenzy. �Look out, he�s at it again� the cry will go out, as if a carrier of the black plague were loose in the land. And a flood of e-mail messages will pour in to my inbox calling me vile names (they are only the best educated and articulate of responders) and telling me I don�t know what I�m talking about. But I do know one thing. I know that Roy Halladay, a fellow who knows something about pitching, agrees with me. Besides his otherwise impressive statistics, the best argument Hernandez has going for him is his lack of run support. Elias Sports Bureau says the Mariners� 3.06 runs per Hernandez start was the A.L.�s lowest. The Mariners say in Hernandez�s 12 losses, the team scored a total of seven runs while he was in the game. I accept that those figures represent terrible run support and would make it difficult for any pitcher to win. But not impossible. I have long believed that good pitchers find a way to win. Two examples: Steve Carlton compiled a 27-10 record in 1972 for a Phillies team that otherwise had a 32-87 record. Carlton led the league with a 1.97 e.r.a., 30 complete games, 310 strikeouts and 346 1/3 innings pitched. Murry Dickson was a 20-game winner for one of the most inept teams in history, the 1951 Pirates, whose 64-90 record belied their level of talent. The only reason they didn�t finish last was Dickson�s 20 wins. Both Carlton and Dickson had more run support than Hernandez, but both found ways to win in spite of the teams they played for. In a conference call with baseball writers to discuss his Cy Young award Tuesday, Halladay was asked about Hernandez and the Cy Young award given his low victory total. �It�s tough,� Halladay said. �Felix�s numbers are very, very impressive, but ultimately they look at how guys are able to win games. Sometimes the run support isn�t there, but you find ways to win games. Guys who are winning deserve a strong look no matter what Felix�s numbers are. When teams bring pitchers over, ultimately they want to win games.� But in this new age of formulas for every action on a baseball field, acronyms have replaced wins. Mythical replacement players have become more important than wins and losses, unless the wins and losses are adjusted by other formulas. Probably the most visible sign of the metric takeover of baseball coverage is the frequency of its use in The New York Times, for whom I covered baseball for four decades with nary a mention of Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average. That mouthful � or eyeful � of a metric, according to Tyler Kepner of the Times, tries to calculate each player�s overall contribution on defense. The Times has increasingly used statistically-based columns, often at the expense, I believe, of the kind of baseball coverage it used to emphasize. But Kepner�s use of �Total Zone Total Fielding� was the clincher, demonstrating that the Times has gone over to the dark side. Kepner, the Times� national baseball writer, used the statistic in reporting that metric men were critical of the selection of Derek Jeter, the Yankees� shortstop, as the Gold Glove shortstop. The Total Zone formula, Kepner wrote, rates Jeter 59th, or last, among major league shortstops. �Within an hour of Tuesday�s announcement of the American League Gold Glove awards,� he wrote as he planted both feet firmly on the dark side, �editors at Baseball-Reference.com summed up the general reaction to Derek Jeter�s latest victory at shortstop: �We can�t believe it either,� a notation briefly on the site said.� If Hernandez doesn�t win the Cy Young award, I suspect the metric men will come out in critical force. But to me, this is the wrong year for Hernandez, I think he�s the best pitcher in the league, and I think he should have won the award last year. But not this year, not with 13 wins, whatever his other statistics, whatever his run support. �Do wins count anymore? I don�t think they count as much,� said Jack O�Connell, secretary-treasurer of the Baseball Writers Association, whom I call the curator of the post-season awards. �I think these stats will play into it. I don�t like that. Some say wins don�t count. Someone wrote recently that Bob Welch shouldn�t have won in 1990. He won 27 games.� O�Connell said he thought wins started to become devalued in 2005 when Bartolo Colon won the award with 21 wins. �People complained that he won because of his wins,� O�Connell said. He agreed with me that Lincecum won last year with 15 wins because two St. Louis starters, Adam Wainwright (19 wins) and Chris Carpenter (17) split the vote. Wainwright received 12 first-place votes, Lincecum 11 and Carpenter 9. Lincecum had 100 points, Carpenter 94 and Wainwright 90. �This could happen with Hernandez this year,� O�Connell said. �Sabathia and Price could split votes. I suspect as long as these stats are out there people are going to use them. I�m not saying that�s a bad thing. But wins do matter.� The Yankees� CC Sabathia won 21 games; no pitcher won 20 last year. Sabathia�s feat should count for something, but in the new age, the standard that stood for excellence for more than 100 years means nothing. It is ignored. It is not a factor. The stats capellers know better and have better standards. But know these facts about Hernandez: He had to win his last start of the season to finish with a winning record. Seventeen pitchers in the American League won more games than he did, and seven others won as many.

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's a terrible terrible article. He cries victimhood and doesn't even bother making the case for Sabathia.

Meanwhile he decries "new-fangled" statitistics which he doesn't cite because he has no use for them. The thing is... I don't need to consult them. The numbers he's comfortable working with and notes are all I need.

The Seattle right-hander had the league�s lowest earned run average, 2.27; the lowest opposing batting average, .212; the most innings pitched, 249 1/3, and missed by two of having the most strikeouts (232).

Sounds like the best pticher in the league to me.

Besides his otherwise impressive statistics, the best argument Hernandez has going for him is his lack of run support. Elias Sports Bureau says the Mariners� 3.06 runs per Hernandez start was the A.L.�s lowest. The Mariners say in Hernandez�s 12 losses, the team scored a total of seven runs while he was in the game.

Wait, he has Elias's number? Maybe they can tell him that the Mariners were the worst offense in several decades.

I accept that those figures represent terrible run support and would make it difficult for any pitcher to win. But not impossible. I have long believed that good pitchers find a way to win.

No, it actually is impossible to win with no runs.

Steve Carlton compiled a 27-10 record in 1972 for a Phillies team that otherwise had a 32-87 record. Carlton led the league with a 1.97 e.r.a., 30 complete games, 310 strikeouts and 346 1/3 innings pitched.

Fucking Carlton is what we call an outlier. What was his run support, though, Murray? You're using these new-fangled statistics, then let's compare apples to apples.

Both Carlton and Dickson had more run support than Hernandez, but both found ways to win in spite of the teams they played for.

Prove it.

�It�s tough,� Halladay said. �Felix�s numbers are very, very impressive, but ultimately they look at how guys are able to win games. Sometimes the run support isn�t there, but you find ways to win games. Guys who are winning deserve a strong look no matter what Felix�s numbers are. When teams bring pitchers over, ultimately they want to win games.�

Wow, that's some pretty tepid support.

Kepner, the Times� national baseball writer, used the statistic in reporting that metric men were critical of the selection of Derek Jeter, the Yankees� shortstop, as the Gold Glove shortstop. The Total Zone formula, Kepner wrote, rates Jeter 59th, or last, among major league shortstops.

Of course it comes down to Jeter. Of course it does.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Yeah, it's brutal. At this point, he has to be aiming at baiting people (at least, in part). And like a 50-year-old divorcee with an exposed thong, it's more than a little unbecoming.

Edgy DC wrote: �It�s tough,� Halladay said. �Felix�s numbers are very, very impressive, but ultimately they look at how guys are able to win games. Sometimes the run support isn�t there, but you find ways to win games. Guys who are winning deserve a strong look no matter what Felix�s numbers are. When teams bring pitchers over, ultimately they want to win games.� Wow, that's some pretty tepid support.

Hey, at least Halladay's a really, really good pitcher. Chass... well...

[ashie62]

It seems to me in my youth the guy with the most wins usually got the award.

Ron Bryant won in 1973 with 24 wins and not much else.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bryanro01.shtml

Felix Sabathia is a worthy choice.

[dinosaur jesus]

What was Carlton's run support in 1972? About league average, actually. Carlton wasn't an outlier; he just pitched great. And Murry Dickson 1951 is an even worse example (though it's hilarious that Chass reached that far back in his memory to come up with him). The Pirates hitting wasn't inept at all (they had Kiner, after all), and when Dickson pitched, it was half a run above league average (lucky for him, because he didn't actually pitch all that well that year).

I know Murray Chass is a busy man these days, but if he wants help looking things up, he should give me a call. It took me about 45 seconds to find that stuff.

[Frayed Knot]

Caught about 10 minutes of Francesa who - to his credit - was defending the Felix CY ... at least sort of.

He'd do a decent job of explaining to disgruntled Yanqui fans about baserunners allowed, and ERA, and run support, and how those things trump the simple calculation of wins, and how if you swapped teams the W/L results would be very different, yyybbb. Where he then hedged his bet was in trotting out the argument that Hernandez, in contrast to Price-Abathia, didn't have to pitch in any tough games so "they still need to adjust the formula".

No, Mike, there is no formula to adjust. Placement is still a judgement call just like it always was, it's just that now the voters are utilizing more info than they ever did to get to those placements.
The part that cracks me up about this 'statsaphobia' some of these old-timers have is the notion that 'Wins' (or RBI in the case of MVP awards) isn't just a stat itself and the only thing different about the recent voting trend they're screaming about is that today's writers are merely using more and different stats in place of the old limited and misleading ones to go along with their judgements.

[Ceetar]

I couldn't make it through that Chass article. I just couldn't do it. I think I'd rather poke myself in the eye. That guy has no business writing anything that gets published.

I'm sure he writes stuff in between scathing hateful unfounded articles and profoundly ignorant ones that are almost readable, but he shouldn't be writing anything.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ashie62 wrote: It seems to me in my youth the guy with the most wins usually got the award. Ron Bryant won in 1973 with 24 wins and not much else.

Ron Bryant won the Cy Young Award in 1973? On this forum, that's sacrilege.

(Now my head's gonna explode).

[G-Fafif]

Harold Reynolds, whom I've come to enjoy on MLBN, sounded Chassian regarding the AL Cy. Something about Sabathia and Price have to pitch in the A.L. East, which should count for something (never mind that Hernandez had to pitch in the same division with the eventual league champions), and because the Mariners weren't in a race, he got to pitch for himself/his statistics as opposed to having to pitch for his team.

Which means what exactly? Instead of trying to get batters out, he tried to...get batters out selfishly?

I admit there's something that feels a little off about a 13-game winner -- as archaic and useless as the pitcher's "win" is -- winning the Cy Young in a year when two very good pitchers won 21 and 19 games, but the Republic of Baseball won't crumble. It may even be a little more secure in its foundation when award for pitching the best went to somebody judged to have pitched the best.

Chass, obviously, is a Chasshole.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Ashie62 wrote: Felix Sabathia is a worthy choice.

Felix Sabathia?

[Guest Edgy DC]

You know, there's pressure in trying to keep your team from falling off a precipice also. And there's pressure in always pitching with no room for error. It's got to be at least part of the picture with all the granniees the Mets yielding this year.

[metirish]

The Chass article was terrible....and he's proud of his stance I am sure......looked like a chance for him to take digs at the NYT but also at Kepner which seems harsh. Kepner had a decent article up yesterday.


With Only 13 Wins, Hernandez Earns Cy Young

By TYLER KEPNER Published: November 18, 2010 Felix Hernandez had the lowest run support of any pitcher in the major leagues this season. He found much more support Thursday from members of the Baseball Writers� Association of America. Hernandez, the Seattle Mariners right-hander who had only 13 wins last season, won the American League Cy Young Award in a landslide. He took 21 of 28 first-place votes, beating Tampa Bay�s David Price, who had four first-place votes, and the Yankees� C.C. Sabathia, who had three. Hernandez, who was 13-12, had the fewest victories ever by a starter who won the award in a nonstrike season. Price was 19-6, and Sabathia was 21-7. In past years, one or the other might have won easily. But most voters no longer emphasize a pitcher�s record, and Hernandez�s other numbers were overwhelming. �I didn�t have the wins, but you look over all the numbers and you say, �Wow,� � Hernandez said, adding later: �I�m so happy. My first reaction was crying.� Hernandez had a 2.27 earned run average while logging 249 2/3 innings and striking out 232. He allowed fewer than seven hits per nine innings, and opponents hit .212 against him. Hernandez�s victory Thursday continued a trend that began last season, when Zack Greinke won the A.L. award with only 16 wins and Tim Lincecum took the National League prize with just 15. Increasingly, voters are looking beyond a pitcher�s record to decide who performed best. Some voters disagree, of course, and so does much of the baseball community. In players� choice voting announced last month, Price was selected most outstanding A.L. pitcher. His 2.72 E.R.A. ranked third in the league, behind Hernandez and Boston�s Clay Buchholz (2.33). �David Price was incredible,� said Mel Antonen, formerly of USA Today, who voted for Price. �I understand the dominance of Felix, and I understand what the statistics say, but in a lot of ways Price was every bit as dominant for a team that needed it to get into the playoffs. I understand the argument for sabermetrics and the new wave of thinking, but it�s not the only way of thinking.� Antonen cited Price�s consistency, noting that he allowed three earned runs or fewer in 28 of his 31 starts. He said he was also strongly influenced by Price�s performance in September, when he went 4-0 with a 1.67 E.R.A. The Rays won all six of Price�s starts in September and secured the best record in the league. The Mariners lost all six of Hernandez�s starts in May, when they still had Cliff Lee and a glimmer of hope at contending. Hernandez was 0-3 with a 4.79 E.R.A. in May. As it turned out, the Mariners� offense was far too weak to save their season. The team scored only 513 runs, the fewest of any A.L. team in a full season since the creation of the designated hitter in 1973. But Hernandez did not get much sympathy for that handicap from the National League Cy Young Award winner, Roy Halladay. �Obviously Felix�s numbers are very, very impressive,� Halladay said on his conference call Tuesday. �But I think, ultimately, you look at how guys are able to win games. Sometimes the run support isn�t there, but you sometimes just find ways to win games. I think the guys that are winning and helping their teams deserve a strong look, regardless of how good Felix�s numbers are.� Most voters were more forgiving, without needing to dig deeply into complicated metrics to make their case. Hernandez led the league in many advanced categories, but he also ranked first in E.R.A. and innings while finishing second in strikeouts, one behind the Angels� Jered Weaver. �If you look at every conceivable measurement for all the candidates, Felix Hernandez � other than wins � pretty much dominated the field,� said Erik Boland of Newsday, who voted for Hernandez. �So based on that, and based on the award being for best pitcher, not most valuable pitcher � because if it was most valuable pitcher, it could have been Sabathia or Price � all the measurements, rather dramatically, point toward Felix.� Joe Smith, who covers the Rays for The St. Petersburg Times, followed a strong candidate this season in Price. Like Boland, who covers Sabathia, Smith also voted for Hernandez for some of the same reasons. �Wins are a factor in this type of award, but not the main factor, because it�s one of the least controllable things a pitcher has,� Smith said. �I try to vote based on who was the best pitcher in the league, not the most valuable pitcher or the best pitcher for the best team. Last year I voted for Greinke, and this year I voted for Felix.� Hernandez had 12 starts in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer and did not win. (Price had five such starts, Sabathia three.) In no-decisions and losses, Hernandez�s E.R.A. was 3.34, compared with 3.76 for Price and 5.25 for Sabathia. Hernandez also had 15 starts of at least seven innings with no more than one earned run; the last A.L. pitcher to do that was Pedro Martinez in 2000. In six starts against the Texas Rangers, the best team in his division, Hernandez was only 2-3 with a 4.28 E.R.A. Yet in six starts against other playoff teams (the Yankees, the Minnesota Twins and the Cincinnati Reds), he was 5-1 with a 1.08 E.R.A. In three starts and 26 innings against the Yankees, Hernandez was 3-0 with 31 strikeouts and a 0.35 E.R.A., allowing one earned run. Over all, though, Hernandez�s record was ordinary. It was much better last year, at 19-5, when Greinke won the award. This year Hernandez improved, but the Mariners played worse, scoring only 3.06 runs a game for him, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The voters did not penalize Hernandez for that bit of bad luck, and Hernandez did not hold it against his teammates. He said they simply tried too hard for him. �I think I had great numbers last year and didn�t get it,� Hernandez said. �This year I had great, great numbers � better numbers than last year. I was not like: �O.K., I should get it.� But I think I deserve it.�