Well look on the bright side ...

[Frayed Knot]

We're falling into top-5 draft territory.

Owners of MLB's 6th worst record at the moment.
Not that I'm suggesting tanking for a better pick - the MLB draft is too skittish for that sort of thing even if it was ethical.
But we'll definitely have a protected 1st round pick should we sign any 'Type A' FAs this winter plus early rights to the land where gems are more plentiful.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Been looking at things that way for a while now.

Here's the thing, though-- a Type A still loses a high 2nd-rounder, at least (higher than where the team got Matz this year).

Insulation against such losses is the main reason I was tense over the Wagner trade, and blahblahblah, blahblahblah.

[Benjamin Grimm]

How likely do we think the Mets are to sign a Type A guy this winter?

[Guest Edgy DC]

They're certainly being provoked to. I'd call it 50/50.

[Guest attgig]

How likely do we think the Mets are to sign a Type A guy this winter?[/quote:3w4069wj]

probably depends on how much Holliday/Bay is willing to sign for.

Would it be worth trying to trade for a LF'er and lose in house prospects instead?

[Frayed Knot]

How likely do we think the Mets are to sign a Type A guy this winter?[/quote:3lk0wdzn]

Dunno. The point is that not only will their 1st round pick be real high but they would NOT lose it unlike recent years such as:
2006 - ceded 18th pick to Philly for signing Wagner;
2007 - 29th to Giants for Alou;
or 2009 - 24th to LAA for F Rodriguez

Instead, even a Type A signing would take away only (depending on how many "supplemental" picks there are next June) around pick # 50-something.

[Frayed Knot]

Of course having a Top-6 draft pick is no guarantee it'll bring you a franchise player

Here's ten years of Top-6 picks (ending with 2005 so as to gain some perspective) and a thumbnail sketch of each.
Of the 59 different players (one was picked twice) I count a lot more who either never reached the majors (14) or were/are marginal players than ones who reached the level of a star* (16)
Two were NYM picks: Getz in 1997, Humber in 2004


1996:
1 - Kris Benson (Coll RHP) 69-74. 4.41 over 11 injury racked seasons
2 - Travis Lee (Coll 1B) Career ended in 2006. 115 HRs, .256
3 - Braden Looper (Coll RHP) 70-64 + 103 saves over 12 ML seasons
4 - Billy Koch (Coll RHP) Career ended in 2004. 4 seasons as regular closer (163 saves)
5 - John Patterson (Coll RHP) 18-25, 4.32 over 5 seasons
6 - Seth Greisinger (Coll RHP) 10-16, 5.51 over parts of 4 ML seasons.


1997:
1 - Matt Anderson (College - RHP) Pitched in the majors between 1998-2005 (15-7; 5.19) and in the minors thru 2008
2 - JD Drew (College - OF) Did not sign
3 - * Troy Glaus - (College SS) 4-time All Star
4 - Jason Grilli (College RHP) Reached ML in 2000, Mostly situational reliever since
5 - * Vernon Wells (HS - OF) 9-year ML and counting. 2-time All Star
6 - Geoff Getz (HS - LHP) 7 years in minors plus 2 independent. Highest = AA


1998:
1 - * Pat Burrell (College - 3B)
2 - * Mark Mulder (College - LHP)
3 - Cory Patterson (HS - OF) Raced thru the minors but then stalled. 10 ML seasons - 5 as regular
4 - Jeff Austin (HS -RHP) Pitched in pieces of 3 ML seasons. Out of baseball by �06
5 - * JD Drew - Redrafted after not signing in �97
6 - Ryan Mills (College - RHP) 7 minor league seasons. Peaked at AAA Out of baseball in 2005


1999:
1 - * Josh Hamilton - A star eventually, although not for the team that picked him and not without drama in between
2 - * Josh Beckett - All Star
3 - Eric Munson - a college catcher, got 1,000 ABs in the majors and hit .214 Spent 2008 & 2009 in AAA
4 - Corey Myers - HS infielder never made MLB. Stayed in the minors thru 2007 getting as high as AAA
5 - BJ Garbe (HS OF) never made MLB. Reached AA and left baseball after 2006
6 - Josh Girdley (HS LHP) Stayed in minors thru 2004, never rose above A-ball


2000:
1 - * Adrian Gonzalez (HS) Became a regular and then a star 6 years and 4 organizations after the draft
2 - Adam Johnson (College RHP) - Pitched in 9 games in MLB. Last seen in independent ball in 2008
3 - Luiz Montanez (HS SS) Utility player in 2008-9
4 - Mike Stodolka (HS - LHP) Never played MLB. Reached AAA in 2008
5 - Justin Wayne (College RHP) Pitched parts of 3 seasons with a 5-8 career record. Out of baseball
6 - Rocco Baldelli (HS - OF) #3 ROY. Looked like solid player/possible star, then illness & injury (or maybe lack of plate discipline) caught up


2001:
1 - * Joe Mauer (HS - C) Star
2 - Mark Prior (Coll RHP) Injury-jinxed career
3 - Dewon Brazelton - (Coll RHP) Pitched pieces of 5 seasons n ML (8-25, 5.38). Out of baseball
4 - Gavin Floyd (HS - RHP) Reached ML in �04. Regular starter in 2008-09. (36-28, 4.65)
5 - * Mark Teixeira (Coll 3B) Star
6 - Josh Karp (Coll RHP) Never reached ML - topped out at AAA. Out of baseball after 5 minor lg seasons


2002:
1 - Bryan Bullington (Coll RHP) 13 games & 5 starts in ML for 3 orgs
2 - * BJ Upton (HS SS) ML by age 19. Starter/potential star.
3 - Christopher Gruler (HS RHP) Topped out in A-ball. Out of baseball by �06
4 - Adam Loewen (HS LHP) 3 partial years in ML before injuries ended pitching career. In A-ball trying to come back as OF
5 - Clint Everts (HS RHP) 7 seasons of minor leagues. Now reliever in AAA
6 - * Zack Greinke (HS RHP) Reached ML in 2004. Turned corner by �08


2003:
1 - Delmon Young (HS OF) Part-time player in 4th ML season
2 - Rickie Weeks (Coll 2B) Mostly regular starter in 6th season
3 - Kyle Sleeth (Coll RHP) Pitched 3 years in minors, topping out in AA. Out of baseball
4 - Tim Stauffer (Coll RHP) 8-13, 5.12 over parts of 4 seasons
5 - Christopher Lubanski (HS OF) In 3rd AAA season
6 - Ryan Harvey (HS RHP) 7th minor lg season. Reached AA


2004:
1 -Matt Bush (HS SS) Failed as both SS & pitcher. Out of baseball
2 - * Justin Verlander (HS RHP) 2-time All Star
3 - Philip Humber (Coll RHP) 30 ML innings pitched
4 - Jeff Neimanm (Coll RHP) 1st ML season in 2009
5 - Mark Rogers (HS RHP) Attempting comeback after 2 missed injury seasons. Hasn�t advanced beyond A-ball
6 - Jeremy Sowers (Coll LHP) Part-time starter over 4 seasons. 18-28, 4.95


2005:
1 - * Justin Upton (HS SS) Becoming a star
2 - Alex Gordon (Coll 3B) Mediocre starter over parts of 3 seasons
3 - Jeff Clement (Coll C) In AAA after parts of 2 ML seasons
4 - * Ryan Zimmerman (Coll 3B) Four years as starter. All Star in 2009
5 - * Ryan Braun (Coll 3B) 3-year ML starter. Twice All-Star
6 - Rickey Romero (Coll LHP) Reached ML in 2009

[Centerfield]

Cool analysis. Still, I'd guess that 1-6 nets you a higher percentage of stars/starters than picks 7-12.

[Gwreck]

Funny thing is that we traded both of those 2 picks -- before they reached the majors* -- for some of the best players our team has ever had.

* Yes, Humber had a few scattered ML innings but that barely counts.

[ashie62]

I'll take Proven players over potential every day.

Chance of a type A free agent.50/50 at best

Think "Low Budget" by the Kinks

[Frayed Knot]

Cool analysis. Still, I'd guess that 1-6 nets you a higher percentage of stars/starters than picks 7-12.[/quote:tm7j2der]

I'm sure you're right.

I just didn't want to make it seem like I was encouraging the argument that 'playing for a better slot' (read: playing for, or rooting for, losses) is some sure-fire way to get a better player. I think a lot of fans have been conditioned to think that way via the absurd over-analysis that accompanies the NFL (and, to a lesser extent, the NBA) drafts where the "experts" convince you of their self-importance by deeming each slot moved up will net you the quantifiable better player and only by listening to them will you know who that player is. That attitude is bogus in those sports too only many times more so in baseball.

[ashie62]

Out of the 60 names..I see 7 or 8 that made it..Mauer & Braun big.

I'll still take a proven FA

[Frayed Knot]

Out of the 60 names..I see 7 or 8 that made it..Mauer & Braun big.

[Guest Edgy DC]

And it depends on the Type-A. Kevin Appier?

[Gwreck]

Right, but we also lost a Type-A at the same as we signed Appier, so it was a wash. (Or slight improvement, as we gained a better spot than we lost). Plus the players we netted turned out pretty well for us.

[Guest Edgy DC]

A net wash over the two transactions, but the Appier signing, maybe not. Who did the Athletics take? Bonderman? Crosby? Neither a great player, but each good enough to hint that the cheap-ass Mets might have done better to walk on by a type-A like Appier.

That's a maybe. When you factor in a the Mo Vaughn deal and the over-priced contracts of that era, it's all pear-shaped, as irish might say.

[Frayed Knot]

2001 draft:
- Mets obtain the 18th overall pick from the Rockies in compensation for the signing of FA Mike Hampton and choose Aaron Heilman
- they also got the 38th overall pick as a supplemental choice and chose David Wright
- the Mets lost their own 1st round pick, #26 overall for the signing of Kevin Appier - A's use the pick to select Jeremy Bonderman
- A's also get the 37th pick (the one right before Wright) as the supplemental choice for losing Appier and selected John Rheinecker (Whew!)

[Guest The Second Spitter]

2001 draft:
- A's also get the 37th pick (the one right before Wright) as the supplemental choice for losing Appier and selected John Rheinecker (Whew!)

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, well, the Mets got 0.9 Wins Above Replacement out of Mo Vaughn and lets say another 5.0 out of Appier for 2001 (the numbers don't go back past 2002 at fangraphs.com, and I don't know how to calculate it, but that's certainly on the generous side). That's 5.9 WARs over three seasons for $37,833,334 and that's not counting the $17+ mills that Vaughn was owed when he retired. I don't know what becomes of that.

Bonderman has given his eventual team (Detroit) seven seasons (really five, plus two partials) and 17.2 WARs for $16,330,000. I'd say Oakland is the clear winner here. They just didn't know it until after they dealt Bonderman too Detroit in some monstrous three-way with the Yankees. I'm certain it would look similarly bad if you take Vaughn out the equation and just stick with Appier to the end of his contract.

[Frayed Knot]

To be fair, the A's got Juan Dominguez in return for John Rheinecker, who put up a respectable 5-10 record for the Sacramento River Cats (AAA) at a 5.86 ERA.

[Frayed Knot]

The best thing form a NYM standpoint of the whole Appier/Vaughn swap was that the Mets inherited the insurance policy that the Angels purchased for Mo's contract which made that final year he sat out here about 80% free. Meanwhile LAA wound up cutting Appier with more than year left and had to eat some huge amount of money.

[Theoldmole]

They might sign a type A personality.

[Frayed Knot]

2010 Draft

1. Nationals
2. Pirates
3. Orioles
4. Royals
5. Indians
6. Diamondbacks
7. Mets
8. Astros
9. Padres
10. Athletics
11. Blue Jays
12. Reds
13. White Sox
14. Brewers
15. Rangers (for failure to sign Matt Purke)
16. Cubs
17. Rays
18. Mariners
19. Tigers/Twins loser
20. Braves
21. Tigers/Twins winner
22. Rangers
23. Marlins
24. Giants
25. Cardinals
26. Rockies
27. Phillies
28. Dodgers
29. Red Sox
30. Angels
31. Rays (for failure to sign LeVon Washington)
32. Yankees

[MFS62]

Well, at least that #7 spot protects their first round pick if they sign a type A free agent.
Later

[Frayed Knot]

Well, at least that #7 spot protects their first round pick if they sign a type A free agent.[/quote:2hjjccqe]

Which, of course, was the thesis of sorts that gave this thread both it's start and it's subject heading.



7th overall picks in the last 20 years:

1990 - Dan Wilson, catcher, Reds -- 14 year career, 1 AS game, averaged about 300 ABs/year
1991 - Joe Vitiello, OF, Royals -- ~700 ML ABs over parts of 7 seasons
1992 - Calvin Murray, OF, Giants -- 600+ ML ABs, about half of those in one season
1993 - Trot Nixon, OF, Red Sox -- 12 seasons about 7 of them as a full-times/LH-platoon. Career = 3,300 ABs & 137 HRs
1994 - Doug Millon, LHP, Rockies -- Reached AA in 4 minor league seasons. Died at the end of 1997
1995 - Jonathan Johnson, RHP, Rangers -- 42 ML games including 4 starts over parts of 6 seasons. 2-4, 6.63
1996 - Matt White, RHP, Giants -- Did not sign
1997 - Dan Reichert, RHP, Royals -- 21-25, 5.55 over 5 seasons
1998 - Asutin Kearns, OF, Reds -- 3rd in RoY (2002) but then downhill after about year three. Career to date = 2,900 ABs & 105 HRs
1999 - Kyle Snyder, RHP, Royals -- 8-17, 5.57 over 5 ML seasons. 3-8, 4.24 for AAA Buffalo in 2009.
2000 - Matt Harrington, RHP, Rockies -- One of the strangest, saddest tales of botched negotiations, lawsuits, and musical agents, Harrington never signed even after being drafted several times and wound up playing strictly in independent leagues through 2007.
2001 - Chris Smith, LHP, Orioles -- The Wantagh, NY native never advanced beyond A-ball in 4 minor league seasons. Out of baseball since 2006.
2002 - Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers
2003 - Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles
2004 - Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds -- Went from being dubbed one of the best pitching prospects in the minors to a bust, bounced back to go 8-5, 4.43 in 20 ML starts this year. Still only 23.
2005 - Troy Tulowitski, SS, Rockies
2006 - Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers -- Emerging as a potential ace in his first full ML season at age 21
2007 - Matt LaPorta, 1B, Brewers -- Main cog in the trade to land CC Sabathia. .254/.308/.442 w/7 HRs in 142 ABs in initial ML season
2008 - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds -- College player with a good first full season in minors split between A & AA
2009 - Mike Minor, LHP, Braves -- Bit of a surprise pick when it happened. No record yet.


Maybe just a coincidence, but perhaps it's a good sign that the picks in this slot have gotten better over the years.
The last 8 choices have produced 3 current stars and several more potential ones as opposed to the mix of platoon players and failures of earlier years.

[seawolf17]

2001 - Chris Smith, LHP, Orioles -- The Wantagh, NY native never advanced beyond A-ball in 4 minor league seasons. Out of baseball since 2006.[/quote:r7n73s9f]
Coaching at SUNY Old Westbury last I looked.