IGT 4/18/08 Santana against Hamels

[Guest Triple Dee]

[Willets Point]

There's a lot of hubris in that poster, but it still made me laugh.

[Guest Triple Dee]

Survey sez;

One more for the GOOD GUYS!!!

[nymr83]

A guy who has had an ERA between 3.03 and 3.62 and a whip between 1.07 and 1.16 each of the last 3 years has been "awful for years"???

Heilman has been awful now for about 2 weeks (the length of this season), lets cut him some slack based on past performances

[Guest themetfairy]

Heilman is an enigma. He has stretches of brilliance, but he also has stretches of suckitude.

[Willets Point]

themetfairy wrote: Heilman is an enigma. He has stretches of brilliance, but he also has stretches of suckitude.

Don't we all?

[Guest themetfairy]

At work I've had some stretches that have been better than others, but I can't think of a time when I've really sucked.

[Guest AG/DC]

If you're regularly pitching in the eighth inning in games where your team is tied or leading by a slender margin, all homers are at the worst possible time.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Heilman's issue isn't giving up homers at the wrong times; it's that he gives up homers generally (more than you'd like for your 8th inning guy, that is).

I thought for sure we would live to see Castillo's failure to get that last run in the big inning come back and bite us so the Philly comeback was not a huge surprise. Otherwise, nice win against a good team.

[Guest AG/DC]

The tack-on run was nice. I was worried we go into the prevent offense.

[Guest Triple Dee]

Heilman's career ERA @ CBP is 10.24.

Lack of attention to detail like this, is where Willie really loses it.

[Guest AG/DC]

I'm going to say too much attention to that sort of thing would be foolish of any manager.

We're talking about less than ten innings, against a team that's usually been among the top hittnig teams, in a ballpark that has served hitters well.

[Guest Triple Dee]

Okay, if you want a larger sample space, then how about a career 8.10 ERA against the Phils over 36.2 ip.

Compared with
v All Other Teams (min 15 ip);

FLA- 58.3 IP - 4.17 ERA
WAS 49.3 IP- 2.37 ERA
ATL - 47 IP - 4.79 ERA
PIT - 22 IP - 2.86 ERA
MIL - 19 IP - 3.32 ERA
CIN- 17.6 IP - 5.60 ERA
SDG - 17.6 IP - 4.58 ERA
CHI - 16 IP - 3.38 ERA
SFO - 15.6 IP - 3.45 ERA

Which team screams out to the manager, "Don't pitch Heilman"?

[Guest AG/DC]

Depends on who else is available.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't think there's anything magical about the Phillies that makes Heilman ineffective against them even if he has been ineffective. And managing that way is nuts, sayeth MASATO (Metfans Against Statistical And Tactical Overkill).

[Centerfield]

Heilman Shmeilman. Hey, first place Mets!

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I don't think there's anything magical about the Phillies that makes Heilman ineffective against them even if he has been ineffective. And managing that way is nuts, sayeth MASATO (Metfans Against Statistical And Tactical Overkill).

+1.

If it's anything, it's a Heilman thing.

[nymr83]

]Okay, if you want a larger sample space, then how about a career 8.10 ERA against the Phils over 36.2 ip.

how many of those guys are still on the phillies? its like the dumb stats that "chipper owns the mets" or "burrell is a met killer" of what possible use are those numbers against Santana, Maine, Perez, etc who werent here for all of that?

[Guest Triple Dee]

Nymr83 wrote: how many of those guys are still on the phillies?

This would be a potentially decent argument if Heilman had a long career, but his career numbers are basically a 3-year average, and the Phillies line-up hasn't changed that much in three years. Howard, Rollins, Utley and Burrell were all starters in 2005, and Victorino was on the bench. That's half their line-up.

But I love how people complain about Willie "managing on a hunch" and then come out and say it's okay if he overlooks data like this.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Aside from the millions of dollars, being a Mets relief pitcher is such a thankless job. I can think of 29 other teams that would be thrilled to have a late-inning reliever with a history of effectiveness against lefties and righties who's been as consistently successful over the last few years as Aaron has been. Remember when everyone was on the Heilman-for-Closer bandwagon late in '05? Nothing about his performance has changed much since then.

When it comes to the bullpen, the grass is always greener somewhere else, as we'll see until Duaner has couple of rough outings.

[Guest Triple Dee]

="OlerudOwned"]Aside from the millions of dollars, being a Mets relief pitcher is such a thankless job. I can think of 29 other teams that would be thrilled to have a late-inning reliever with a history of effectiveness against lefties and righties who's been as consistently successful over the last few years as Aaron has been.

The object of my reproof is Willie's management not Heilman.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

="Triple Dee"] ="OlerudOwned"]Aside from the millions of dollars, being a Mets relief pitcher is such a thankless job. I can think of 29 other teams that would be thrilled to have a late-inning reliever with a history of effectiveness against lefties and righties who's been as consistently successful over the last few years as Aaron has been. The object of my reproof is Willie's management not Heilman.

No, I know. You're one of the ones I'm agreeing with. My post was just an observation on the impatient, home team-booing fanbase as a whole.

[Guest holychicken]

I swear that people unfairly hate Heilman because of the way he looks.

[stevejrogers]

holychicken wrote: I swear that people unfairly hate Heilman because of the way he looks.

Really, how so?

[Guest Triple Dee]

SteveJRogers wrote: ="holychicken"]I swear that people unfairly hate Heilman because of the way he looks. Really, how so?

People are generally wary of baby-faced adults.

[Guest AG/DC]

Heilman saved the castle last night. The data was worth bupkis.

Some data sets are indicators. Others are just data.

Some adversity should lead to changes. Other adversity is worth fighting through.

If I read that David Wright was throwing up a .683 OPS career against Pittsburgh (he is), I'd be a fool to make too much of that.

Viva MASATO.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

="holychicken"]I swear that people unfairly hate Heilman because of the way he looks.

Holy crap, I thought I was the only one.

He's got a smugish face, or something like that. I don't know. it's certainly irrational, but kind of fascinating.



Very punchable.

[Guest Triple Dee]

AG/DC wrote: Heilman saved the castle last night. The data was worth bupkis..

Yeah, because he struck out Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth, hence proving the previous 36.2 ip was an aberration.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

You're going to have to show some cause-and-effect here. Because B follows A does mean A caused B, etc etc

[Guest Triple Dee]

I can't quite figure out why you find the idea that the Phillies may have figured Heilman out, and consequently he should be used sparingly against them, such a difficult proposition to come to terms with.

You're either disagreeing because you don't believe it's true (even though the statistical evidence supports the opposite conclusion), or you're disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing.