Zee-Toe

[Frayed Knot]

Now that the two sides have apparently met (at least w/Boras) it's probably a good idea to give this topic it's own thread as we follow the trials & tribulations of this soap opera which probably won't end anytime soon.

Starting with the excerpt from Jayson Stark's blog from the other thread:


The Mets and Barry Zito's agent, Scott Boras, haven't talked money yet. But they clearly have a major philosophical difference about the potential length of Zito's contract, according to a source who spoke with both Boras and Mets GM Omar Minaya. Boras has told teams that Zito's deal needs to be at least six years. But the Mets don't want to go beyond four years. And it's nearly impossible to envision them extending past five years. This could be a gigantic obstacle, but an official of another team that has kicked Zito's tires said Tuesday: "I wouldn't believe any of that talk. I still think the Mets will do whatever it takes to get Zito, despite what everyone is saying now."

• Another source who has spoken with the Mets advises us to discount reports that the club is actively pursuing Miguel Batista or any other free-agent starter besides Zito. The Mets were interested in Vicente Padilla before he re-signed with Texas. But with him off the board, the Mets are "not in on Batista or any of those guys at this time," the source said. "The only guy they have high-level interest in right now is [Zito]." Which seems like more confirmation that the Mets remain Zito's most likely destination.

• No agent is more famous for overplaying his hand than Boras. So one GM joked last week that Boras had so little interest going in Zito this year that, other than the Mets, "it's all mystery teams. Usually, with Scott, you have four or five real teams and one mystery team. This year, it's one real team and all the rest are mystery teams." But that has changed since the meetings began. The Rangers, Mariners and Angels are all "definitely in" on Zito, according to one club that has been talking to Boras. However, Boras could be running into similar roadblocks with two of those teams that he has run into with the Mets. Because both Texas and Seattle are wary of being used to drive up some other team's price tag, neither wants to offer a contract longer than four years. The Angels' intentions are a little more mysterious. But one executive wondered "if they have any money left, after giving their center fielder (Gary Matthews Jr.) $50 million."

[metirish]

Here's what I think,5 years at $60 million with an attainable player option for a sixth year,of course Hicks might just blow everyone away....

[Guest Iubitul]

metirish wrote: Here's what I think,5 years at $60 million with an attainable player option for a sixth year,of course Hicks might just blow everyone away....

I don't think that gets it done. I like the 5 years with the 6th year option, but I think it will take closer to $70-$75 million

[metirish]

Yes,the player option would bring the deal to $75 million,throw in some other clauses like,win a Cy Young and get an extra $2 million,I think Omar can get creative and he seems quite persausive so I think Zito is coming..

[nymr83]

as usual, I care more about years than dollar signs.. I'd rather give Zito $16m per year for 4 years than give him $14m per year over 6 years.
I have less objection to including "reasonably obtainable options" (ie options that are sure to kick in if he's healthy) than i do to a deal that is 6 years no matter what as injury is my major concern, i doubt this guy will simply fall off the face of the earth (Chan Ho Park style) unless he gets hurt.

[nymr83]

as usual, I care more about years than dollar signs.. I'd rather give Zito $16m per year for 4 years than give him $14m per year over 6 years.
I have less objection to including "reasonably obtainable options" (ie options that are sure to kick in if he's healthy) than i do to a deal that is 6 years no matter what as injury is my major concern, i doubt this guy will simply fall off the face of the earth (Chan Ho Park style) unless he gets hurt.

[Guest Iubitul]

metirish wrote: Yes,the player option would bring the deal to $75 million,throw in some other clauses like,win a Cy Young and get an extra $2 million,I think Omar can get creative and he seems quite persausive so I think Zito is coming..

No - I think it would have to be $70-75 million for the first five.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I'm with the tall libertarian.

[Guest KC]

Who is that?

[MFS62]

If all else fails, Boras will go back to the Rangers owner who spends like a teenager at the mall with daddy's credit card.
Scott, who's your (sugar) daddy?

Later

[metirish]

MFS62 wrote: If all else fails, Boras will go back to the Rangers owner who spends like a teenager at the mall with daddy's credit card. Scott, who's your (sugar) daddy? Later

Well not to defend Boras but I imagine that's why Zito hired him,to get the biggest contract possible....

[smg58]

I'm not so concerned about years. Zito is similar to Glavine, always trying to outsmart hitters because he can't overpower them. Glavine remains an above average pitcher at 41 largely because he's never needed to overtax his arm to succeed, and Zito strikes me as being the same type of pitcher. He's certainly been a model of durability up to this point, and I'd be willing to bet he stays that way.

The Mets need to decide how good a pitcher they think Barry Zito really is. Is he the guy who's been good but not elite the past three seasons, or the Cy Young caliber pitcher he was his first three years when Rick Peterson was his pitching coach? Whoever signs him will be paying for the latter, whether they get that pitcher or not.

[Guest KC]

I wouldn't care if he signed with an AL team for stupidish big money. Given
the amount of dough some rather mediocre guys have already signed for I'm
sure that Boras is licking his chops thinking the Mets will do anything to make
it so. I hope the Mets have a point where they aren't afraid of four weeks of news-
paper stories, talk radio, and internet yabba yabba if they let him go somewhere
else and just know when to NO THANKS.

I'll take him, the Mets need pitching, but please don't go overboard just to win out,
particularly in terms of years, just for the ridiculous auction process.

[stevejrogers]

KC wrote: I hope the Mets have a point where they aren't afraid of four weeks of news- paper stories, talk radio, and internet yabba yabba if they let him go somewhere else and just know when to NO THANKS.

You mean like a SS 6 years ago? The Wilpon's may have finally lived that one down, but I think Phillips has been trying to fight the "24 and One" comment by praising PayRod often on his commentaries.

[Guest KC]

No that's not what I mean. How you get from point a to point b many times
is just freakin' astounding ... but thanks for letting my little post go unanswered
for a whole seven minutes without anyone bringing up Wilpon, Arod, or Steve Phillips.

[nymr83]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: I'm with the tall libertarian.

who is the libertarian?

[Guest cleonjones11]

Abe Lincoln?

[Guest attgig]

i could see 4 years at 60 with a 5th year option for 15-20 and a 3-5 mil buyout.

4/60 seems ok, and the 5th year option appeases borass. the buyout is the route the mets go with unless zito's amazing.

[Guest iramets]

No, he'll go higher than that.

I'd thought he had a declining year in '06, but that was based on a judgment I came to after his poor start (opening day against the Yankees he left with a 47.00 and change ERA, and he went 2-3 in his first five decisions, including two losses to the Yankees, so I thought he'd had an off-year, but it really wasn't after all was said and done.) He's worth at least Pedro-money--not as spectacular a pitcher, but much more durable. No way we're getting him for less than 5 years and 75 mil. That would be a bargain in this market, and I'll think he'll get at least 6 years and over 90 mil. The Mets will blink first, and overpay to get Zito.

I always imagine that there;s a sliding scale to sign Free Agents: for Zito to sign a one-year deal, the figure would be, I don't know, 30 mil? And as you assume further risks, the annual bite gets lower and lower, so maybe we're talking about

2007 30 mil
2008 22 mil
2009 13 mil
2010 8 mil
2011 7 mi
2012 5 mil with a 5 mil buyout for 2013.

This is just for the purposes of computing his value, not the actual structure of a deal. Obviously his value for 2007 is highest because that's the year you're figuring the probability of a great season is highest. I wonder if agents make such offers explicitly--if Boras says, "You want Zito for three years? Fine, we want 65 mil for a three year deal, and the next three years cost you another 25 mil. Which deal do you like? Your call."

[Guest Rotblatt]

]No way we're getting him for less than 5 years and 75 mil. That would be a bargain in this market, and I'll think he'll get at least 6 years and over 90 mil. The Mets will blink first, and overpay to get Zito.

$90M for 6 years in this market doesn't seem so terrible to me. I don't think he's an ace, but he only turns 29 next year, and he's been pretty durable.

If we can get him at $75M over 5, with an option and, say, a $3M buyout, that's even better.

I don't know if it's possible, though, if Texas really is talking $100M over 6 years. Paying that much is a little crazy, from where I sit, and trying to better it? Gah. I'd rather we try to trade for one of the White Sox pitchers.

[metsmarathon]

iramets wrote: 2007 30 mil 2008 22 mil 2009 13 mil 2010 8 mil 2011 7 mi 2012 5 mil with a 5 mil buyout for 2013.

i'd expect the curve to be a bit flatter, but its a realistic methodology. it may not be how the agent goes into the negotiations, but surely something akin to this is in his mind.

[Guest Edgy DC]

According to Randolph, he's a horsefish... with an arsenal.

"He's not a typical horse. He's not an overpowering guy but he's got enough in his arsenal to win his share of ballgames. He's the big fish right now everyone is knocking themselves over to get to. Hopefully, he'll look at New York as the place he wants to spend the next four or five years."

[MFS62]

I heard yesterday on the radio that Zito is interested in a music/ entertainment career, and that is why playing in New York is very attractive to him. It may overcome the extra dollars that Hicks might throw at him.

Later

[Vic Sage]

yeah, but Boras doesn't get a commission on those revenue streams. Scotty will steer Zito to whoever offers the richest deal.

Look, if there were a better pitcher available either as a FA or thru trade, i'd agree that outbidding Texas would be silly; or if we were looking to spend money elsewhere to make a big impact (like 2b or OF), I'd agree we shouldn't go hogwild for Zito.

But at this point, Zito is the guy. It appears we're not prepared to make any other moves. We need a solid pitcher in our rotation if we expect to go to the WS, and right now i'm not sanguine about a single arm we've got pencilled in. Don't tell me we're a better team without his 200 IP/32 GS. So, if it takes an extra year and an extra $10-$20m (over 6 years) to sign him, i think we should.

Or we can count on guys like Maine, Perez and Dave Williams (behind Glavine & El Duque) to carry us.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I'm with Vic. Zito looks to be their best remaining option and they should do what they need to do to get him.

Of course, if Texas offers $252 million over ten years, the Mets shouldn't top that; they do need limits. But they should push to their limit, and a little beyond, if they have to.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Vic Sage wrote: It appears we're not prepared to make any other moves.

This is the part I don't buy for a minute.

[Frayed Knot]

Well, if you believe all the scuttlebutt, the Mets are more nervous about the years than the dollars - although I suppose you could argue it's all the same thing.

What Boras/Zito reportedly are looking for is somewhere in the 6x$17 range to start and then maybe push it up from there by going the usual route of convincing each team that there's an un-named suitor on hold that minute ready and willing to go higher.
Could I [you] live with that? ... I probably wouldn't swallow any harder on it than I did with the Beltran, Pedro or Wagner deals.



Best line of the day yesterday was (NYDN's) Bill Madden saying that Boras is trying to convince the BoSox that he has a mystery country bidding on Matsuzaka.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Me too, Edgy. Latest word is, we're exploring a trade of Milledge & Heilman + prospect (Humber?) for Haren.

That's a lot to give up, but Haren is a pretty exciting kid, and someone I'd value quite a bit higher than Zito.

If Humber's the prospect, it might be too much for me, but it's certainly worth considering.

In other words, we don't have to play the free market game if it's not to our liking, since we have some chips available to trade.

[Vic Sage]

and i'm fine with saving our chips for a major deal, if that ends up being Omar's strategy.

but what i DON'T want us to do is go into the season with the current rotation because we insisted on staying at 5yr/$75m rather than go 6yrs/$100m on Zito.

frankly, we'd be better off making the Harden trade AND signing Zito.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I'd rather they spend the money and keep the chips.