Howard MVP

[Frayed Knot]

Pujols 2nd
Berkman 3rd
Beltran 4th

still looking for the complete voting

[metirish]

Good,I'm happy that that crackhead Pujols didn't win.

[seawolf17]

BOOOOO.

I voted for Reyes. But that might make that Ryan Howard autographed baseball card I pulled a few months ago from a pack bump up in value a bit.

[TransMonk]

Reyes 7th
Wright 9th

2006 NL MVP Voting
Player 1st 2nd 3rd Pts
Ryan Howard, Phillies 20 12 -- 388
Albert Pujols, Cardinals 12 19 1 347
Lance Berkman, Astros -- -- 21 230
Carlos Beltran, Mets -- 1 5 211
Miguel Cabrera, Marlins -- -- 2 170
Alfonso Soriano, Nats -- -- 1 106
Jose Reyes, Mets -- -- 1 98
Chase Utley, Phillies -- -- -- 98
David Wright, Mets -- -- 1 70
Trevor Hoffman, Padres -- -- -- 46

[metirish]

Complete voting here FK...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2669508

[Guest Edgy DC]

2006 NL MVP Voting
Player	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts

[metirish]

Ok,dumb question,how is Soriano's 1 third place vote worth more than Reyes's 1 third place vote?

Beltran gets $200,000 for fourth..nice work.

[Frayed Knot]

metirish wrote: Ok,dumb question,how is Soriano's 1 third place vote worth more than Reyes's 1 third place vote?

Scoring: 14 points for first place, nine for second, eight for third and on down to one for 10th.

IOW, there are other votes not shown on that chart
This is the one award where voters list their top 10 choices, not just 1st, 2nd, 3rd

[metirish]

] IOW, there are other votes not shown on that chart

Thanks,makes sense.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Smart answer: Each voter gets ten votes, but only the guys who got top-three votes are shown. It's a lot more fun than the awards that only allow you to vote for three guys.

[nymr83]

i'm shocked that Beltran faired so poorly.

[Gwreck]

="metirish"]Good,I'm happy that that crackhead Pujols didn't win.

I don't like Pujols much either but giving the award to Howard is impossible to reconcile with the numbers they put up.

Howard's 8 extra homers and 7 extra RBI cannot make up for the fact that he struck out 181 times to Pujols' 50; Pujols also had an average 28 points higher (the rest of the numbers were fundamentally the same, with slightly higher totals to Albert in almost every other category.

Howard actually had another star (Utley) hitting in that lineup too.

Stupid vote.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Albert Pujols had an OPS+ of 180 to 170 for Ryan Howard, but he missed some time, and had 634 plate appearances to Howard's 704.

The relative lack of strikeouts for Pujols may well have led to a handful more of productive outs than Howard. Maybe even two handfuls. But they also led to 20 double plays, versus Howard's 7.

You still may want to go with Pujols, but I think the other view is indeed reconcileable with the numbers.

[metirish]

Some no doubt will say it's northeast bias...

[metsmarathon]

the runs created stat gives howard an edge over pujols, 150-140, or thereabouts. i'm sure howard's defensive liabilities cut into his lead as far as an overall better player goes.

and if howard got any additional votes over pujols for playing for a team in contention late in the season, that's just unfailingly dumb. for so many many reasons.

win shares show pujols with a slim lead, 39-38 over beltran, and a wide, wide margin over howard, who sits 6th in the NL with 31 win shares.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Where does Howard lose out the most on win shares --- batting, baserunning, or fielding?

[G-Fafif]

metirish wrote: Some no doubt will say it's northeast bias...

Yet not quite north enough or east enough for my tastes.

It's not necessarily an argument against Howard, whose numbers were hard to ignore (obviously) and whose impact on the Phillies getting as close as they did was enormous, but I wonder if anybody else has ever...

*Won a Gold Glove
*Won a Silver Slugger
*Started in the All-Star Game
*Tied his franchise's record for home runs in a season
*Broke his franchise's record for runs scored in a season
*Played on the team with the sport's best record

...and finished as low as fourth in the MVP voting.

Then again, I wonder if anybody has ever done those six things in the same season, period.

[metsmarathon]

....

[metsmarathon]

player	batting	fielding
pujols	36.3	2.4
beltran	30.0	8.3
howard	29.8	1.2

howard gets killed on hitting, per win shares.

if i were to guess, i'd blame that on the hitter-friendliness of his home park - its about the only thing that maybe makes sense

CBP was rated as a 103 park factor for hitters, BS3 was a 98, and SS was a 95.

so howard is going to get de-rated for hitting in those friendly confines.

that, and perhaps win shares needs to do a better, or smarter, job of looking at defense.

for a first baseman, this is what gets looked at, in order of decreasing importance

First Basemen: Plays Made, Errors, Arm Rating and Errors by third basemen and shortstops

maybe that doesn't adequately capture the real difference between howard's and pujols' glove work???


...


fwiw, baseball prospectus' WARP3 shows pujols at 12.9, beltran at 11.8, and howard way down at 9.4, and the biggest difference there is his glove.

[Elster88]

G-Fafif wrote: ="metirish"]Some no doubt will say it's northeast bias... Yet not quite north enough or east enough for my tastes. It's not necessarily an argument against Howard, whose numbers were hard to ignore (obviously) and whose impact on the Phillies getting as close as they did was enormous, but I wonder if anybody else has ever... *Won a Gold Glove *Won a Silver Slugger *Started in the All-Star Game *Tied his franchise's record for home runs in a season *Broke his franchise's record for runs scored in a season *Played on the team with the sport's best record ...and finished as low as fourth in the MVP voting. Then again, I wonder if anybody has ever done those six things in the same season, period.

Wow. You sure as hell convinced me Greg (sc = 0). Not to mention he won the Gold Glove in CF.

[metirish]

yeah,excellent points...I guess his one bad month hurt him....

[nymr83]

the franchise records dont realy matter to me because on half the teams in the league he wouldnt have set them, but a silver slugger and gold glove in a middle of the field position for a playoff team should = automatic MVP.

i'd have been less annoyed to only lose to one guy like Pujols who arguably was a 1-man show that got his team into the playoffs, but to lose to 3 guys, 2 of whom didnt get into October, is annoying.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think being on a playoff team is irrelevant. In fact, the Gold Glove, deserved by Beltran or not, is too much a byproduct of the visiblity of being on a playoff team and the visibility of being a slugger, so that's made less relevant also.

]fwiw, baseball prospectus' WARP3 shows pujols at 12.9, beltran at 11.8, and howard way down at 9.4, and the biggest difference there is his glove.

I guess I've got to math like the WARP guys, but I've got this.

Ryan Howard had an OPS+ of 170.

Albert Pujols had an OPS+ of 180.

So there your park factor is accounted for.

Now, maybe I'm way off here, but I've heard estimated in the past that a replacement level hitter is a 60, OPS+-wise.

Ryan Howard had an OPS+ above replacement of 110.

Albert Pujols had an OPS+ above replacement of 120.

That shows it. Pujols was a 9.1% better hitter than Howard (OPS+-wise). When he was in the lineup. But Howard was in the lineup 11% more.

Multiply Pujols's 634 AB by 120 and we have 76080.

Multiply Howard's 704 AB by 110 and we have 77440.

Now that's a slim edge (1.8% difference), and the work is crude. I'm certainly not married to that conclusion, and I'm happy to say that the difference is eclipsed when we account for Pujols being the superior baserunner and fielder, but I can't see how WARP comes to such a dramatically different conclusion --- looking a batting alone --- one that pretty much unambiguously disqualifies Howard.

[metsmarathon]

(edgy, you mean win shares, right, and not WARP?)

the best i can do is say that i agree with you.

howard and pujols were close enough with their bats to make the difference in playing time bring them to about a draw, offensively. at least based on everything i can really look to to tell a difference between the players.

since there are no real baserunning stats other than SB & CS, its hard to say how much better a baserunner albert is than howard, and i'd guess hat its not enough to make up for the difference in win shares. ditto the strikeouts versus GIDP difference between the players.

as near as i can tell, there's not much difference between albert pujols and ryan howard, offensively.

defensively, howard has a much lower fielding percentage and zone rating, and since those are about the best metrics we have in fielding measurement, other than our eyes, he's nowhere near as good as pujols.

according to baseball prospectus, there's a 32 run difference between ryan howard at first and albert pujols.

according to win shares and the hardball times, there's less than half a win difference between the two players' glovework.

it makes no sense to me.

the one thing i can take away from almost all of this is that albert pujols is at least as good if not better both offensively and defensively than ryan howard, and he's somehow not the mvp.

...

based on the hardball times' figurings... prince fielder is the second best firstbaseman in the NL, and delgado is about 6th best, just ahead of todd helton.

BP's figurings on wins above replacement players may have me scratching my head sometimes when it comes to defense, but when i compare them to win shares, it seems like i like their results better.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Elster88 wrote: ="G-Fafif"] ="metirish"]Some no doubt will say it's northeast bias... Yet not quite north enough or east enough for my tastes. It's not necessarily an argument against Howard, whose numbers were hard to ignore (obviously) and whose impact on the Phillies getting as close as they did was enormous, but I wonder if anybody else has ever... *Won a Gold Glove *Won a Silver Slugger *Started in the All-Star Game *Tied his franchise's record for home runs in a season *Broke his franchise's record for runs scored in a season *Played on the team with the sport's best record ...and finished as low as fourth in the MVP voting. Then again, I wonder if anybody has ever done those six things in the same season, period. Wow. You sure as hell convinced me Greg (sc = 0). Not to mention he won the Gold Glove in CF.

I'd start a "Carlos was robbed" thread, but after the abuse in the Willie thread I'll refrain!



I do think he deserved to be much higher than fourth. Sometimes the MVP becomes the "most home runs" award, though Mark McGwire would disagree....

[metsmarathon]

singularly outlandish numbers typically trump overall better seasons in the eyes of many a voter, i think.

"jeez, the guy hit 58 home runs! how could he not be the MVP?"

[Guest Edgy DC]

Phirst Phillie winnier since Schmidt?

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Steven A. Smith somehow tries to make Howard's MVP case by dragging race into it, then comes off as ignorant himself with gems like "But the reality is the talent that is Pujols, while fairly unique, is a dime a dozen in the laundry list of Latin talent that has invaded baseball".

As always, FJM is on the case.

[metirish]

WOW,but that was a pile of hot dung form Smith....

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's some good stuff.

What's FRAR?