Trade Tracker: Kris Benson for Jorge Julio and John Maine

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I wouldn't Knock Knady. I like him and think he's done a pretty good job considering the medical calamities and all. He's also younger, cheaper, etc. and oughta wind up with 20-some dingers.

I'm even willing to swallow the idea that Cameron needed to be moved for what they could get for him lest we'd have been "stuck," couldn't afford Delgado, whatever. That the mets doubled-up his skill set with Beltran wasn't the best situation for cameron either.

But have ya looked at what the guy's been doing lately? Quite simply, Cameron's a great player and it's to everyone's shame that they didn't make a better offer when he was available.

[Frayed Knot]

In a sport where all hitters are streaky Cameron streakiness stands out and he's in one of his "UP" rolls right now.

But this trade was a future move also. Cameron wanted to get back to CF and, while he was a good soldier moving to RF, he'd be gone after this year and we'd be searching for a new corner OFer again instead of at least having Nady as an option.
The question will always remain about whether Omar pulled the trigger too quickly on the deal w/o trying to drive the price up, but at worst it's a wash right now.

[TransMonk]

Benson sent to O's doctor

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Where the trade stands through 8/6/06:

What the Mets Traded Away:

Kris Benson

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
22	9 �9	133.2	140	62	46	1.39	4.71

Benson is currently on the 15 day DL.

What the Mets Traded For:
Jorge Julio*

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
47	1 � 4	50	42	67	24	1.32	4.14

*Combined seasonal stats (Mets 18 games & Dbacks 29 games)

John Maine

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
7	2 � 3	39	26	31	13	1.00	2.08

What the Mets Ultimately Received:
Jorge Julio#

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
18	1 � 2	21.1	23	33	10	1.45	5.06

O. Hernandez#

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
12	5-4	68.1	64	61	21	1.24	4.21

John Maine

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
7	2 � 3	39	26	31	13	1.00	2.08

#Mets stats only

[TransMonk]

The way Maine is pitching, this deal looks more like a steal every day:

Kris Benson stats:
22 G, 9 W, 9 L, 133.2 IP, 140 H, 62 K, 46 BB, 1.39 WHIP, 4.71 ERA

Julio, Hernandez, Maine total combined Mets stats:
37 G, 8 W, 9 L, 128.2 IP, 113 H, 125 K, 44 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.71 ERA

So far in 5 less IP, the Mets have double the Ks and saved a full run in ERA.

[nymr83]

and yet i still feel far more confident in Benson to start game 3 than Hernandez or Maine. it should also be pointed out that Benson is pitching in the AL and in Camden Yards.
I'd undo this trade in a second.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'll take hard data over feelings at this point.

There's also money saved here.

[nymr83]

that hard data doesn't account for the difference in leagues, which are looking particularly unequal this year. a guy with a 4.7 in the AL is having almost as good a yeart as a guy with a 3.7 in the NL (the 3 pitchers combined).

also, Maine alone has 39 innings....talk to me when he has the 133 Bnson has thrown. Henandez for the year (if you dont cherrypick his Mets stats) has a 4.97 ERA, hugher than Benson's and thats in the NL.

so while the mets have gotten more quality out of the 3 guy combined, neither of those starters is more trustworthy than benson right now.

[TransMonk]

Hard data accounting for the difference in leagues:

Total for all AL pitchers in 2006: 13847 IP, 7062 ER, 4.59 ERA
Total for all NL pitchers in 2006: 15874.2 IP, 8030 ER, 4.55 ERA

Total for AL starters in 2006: 9129.1 IP, 4856 ER, 4.79 ERA
Total for NL starters in 2006: 10406 IP, 5457 ER, 4.72 ERA

Not sure where the inequality is.

As for how trustworthy Benson is...I wouldn't feel any more secure in our postseason capabilities if he were our 3rd man in the rotation.

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's plenty of data for right now. And, yeah, park factors still won't make up the difference.

As for how trustworthy Benson is right now, right now he's on the disabled list and no good to anybody.

And counting Hernandez's stats with the Mets is not "cherrypicking" his stats. That's all that counts.

[nymr83]

it isnt all that counts. the mets have locked up a playoff spot, what hernandez does for the mets right now doesnt matter and is no better indicator of what he'll do in the postseason than what he did for the d-backs.
and since you're cherrypicking i'll do it too... Benson has a 3.83 ERA in his 101 night game innings, it is only in day games that he gets hit hard. guess when most playoff games are played. he has a 4.29 since the all-star break, compared to hernandez's 4.39, both in 4 games

i'd still undo this trade in a second.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]It isnt all that counts. the mets have locked up a playoff spot, what hernandez does for the mets right now doesnt matter and is no better indicator of what he'll do in the postseason than what he did for the d-backs.

That's absurd. It's also not what we're measuring.

]and since you're cherrypicking i'll do it too...

You can keep saying that, it's still untrue.

]Benson has a 3.83 ERA in his 101 night game innings, it is only in day games that he gets hit hard. guess when most playoff games are played. he has a 4.29 since the all-star break, compared to hernandez's 4.39, both in 4 games

What's his ERA when the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligned with Mars?

]i'd still undo this trade in a second.

Well, you can't. Because, despite your best intentions, you're not allowed to trade for a guy on the disable list.

[nymr83]

edit- nevermind.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, it's not really fair of me to say "absurd" and not support it. But if it was the opposite, if Orlando Hernandez had done more or less OK for nine starts for Arizona, and then pitched rather poorly for 12 starts here, and I went on to claim that it doesn't matter, because those nine starts at the beginning of the year for another team were just as indicative of what to expect in October, wouldn't you hasten to disagree with me?

I hope so, because it would be a really difficult position to support.

[nymr83]

i just dont think theres any reason to look at his numbers for the mets without taking his other numbers into account. Peterson didn't "fix him in 10 minutes" he is still the same pitcher that stunk up the joint for arizona, he's had some better luck of late but he is still the same guy.

as for john maine i really hope he is half as good as he has looked, but until he has more innings under his belt i have to wait and see.

if you'd like to ressurect the "bets thread" i'll bet that Benson has a better ERA+ in the 2nd half than Hernandez (assuming we can find ERA+ for half a season?)

[Guest Edgy DC]

Sure, you take it all into account. You just logically weigh some factors more heavily than others.

The Peterson fix-in-ten-minutes is really silly to keep repeating at this point. Do we know he's better on the Mets because he's on the Mets? No. But it becomes a safer assumption the longer his improved performance holds out. And it's now longer than his nine-start run with Arizona. I don't know what you base your contention of luck on. He's had a lot more success than failure in his career. His performance is what it is

I'm not interested in betting on what happens from this point forward. I've made no claims as to what will happen. What this thread hopes to do is measure what has happened as it continues to happen.

It's also reframing the issue. We're not measuring Benson vs. Hernandez. We're measuring Benson vs. Hernandez + Maine + Whatever We Got from Julio.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The Minnesota Twins gave Kris Benson a wedgie and stuffed him in his locker last night.

3.2 innings, 10 hits, 6 earnies, 0 walks, 0 whiffs, 1 homerun.

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Anna's probably not as vocal today as she was when Kris was pitching well.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Hey, zero walks ain't bad!

[Willets Point]

End of season update?

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I'll get the final numbers up soon. Internet and cellular services throughout most of eastern North Carolina were out for most of yesterday. Too busy to check in today until this evening. So I'm just getting caught up with the forum again after 2 days.

[Valadius]

Bump.

Damn right this paid off.

[Zvon]

CRACK! SKREETCH! MEEEEEOW!

"Bring out your dead!
Bring out your dead!"
(...................thread)

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

This deal is still paying dividends. I promise to update this thread once all the final stats are in. Too busy enjoying the Mets play off run at present.

[MFS62]

The year before the Mets got him, John Maine was the sixth best prospect in the Orioles' organization. They brought him up that year and he faltered. As a result, he slipped down several spots on their prospect list.

If he was their sixth best, I'd sure like to know the names of the players who were ranked higher. I should know them, because they must be household names by now.

Later

[metsmarathon]

maine looks, and has for the entire season, like he has some pretty good upside moving forward past this year. the ball seems to get on top of hitters in a hurry, quicker than they expect it.

i can't wait to see if he steps to the next level in 07. or in the next 8 games.

oh, and thanks, anna!

[Guest Edgy DC]

This also seems to be pattern with Omar Minaya, with his 1-for-2 deals: get a major leaguer you're going to punch in right away for better or for worse and get a prospect who has trended in the wrong direction, has fallen out of his team's favor, and can take his time in Norfolk (New Orleans) and benefit from a new organization with new coaches and turn himself around.

Perez and Maine are our third and fourth starters right now, but both were the second guys in the deal when we got them.

Minaya seems to know how to divide his eggs in multiple baskets.

[Frayed Knot]

MFS62 wrote: If [Maine] was their sixth best, I'd sure like to know the names of the players who were ranked higher. I should know them, because they must be household names by now.

Be careful about treating those lists as gospel. Often it's that a higher ranked guy is considered better for the long haul but is on a lower rung and simply ins't ready yet. They're trying to project the better career, not see who wins the race to get there first. And, IIRC, Maine WAS ranked higher a year or so before that, but these things tend to flucuate wildly from year to year and if projecting this kind of stuff were easy ...


In any case, it winds up that 4 of the 7 starts in the LCS will be started by the supposed "throw-ins" from in-year trades.
That's either real good, real lucky, or real desperate depending on your POV

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, allow me to amend my post above. Maine and Perez aren't our third and fourth starters, but our second and third.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Better late than never, but this is a rather unheralded trade that ultimately turned out quite well for the Mets.

How the trade ended up:

What the Mets Traded Away:

Kris Benson

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
30	11 �12	183.0	199	88	58	1.40	4.82

What the Mets Traded For:
Jorge Julio*

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
62	2 � 4	66	52	88	35	1.32	4.23

*Combined seasonal stats (Mets 18 games & Dbacks 44 games)

John Maine

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
16	6 � 5	90	69	71	33	1.13	3.60

What the Mets Ultimately Received:
Jorge Julio#

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
18	1 � 2	21.1	23	33	10	1.45	5.06

O. Hernandez#

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
20	9-7	116.2	103	112	41	1.23	4.09

John Maine@

Games	Record	Innings	Hits	Strike outs	Walks	WHIP	ERA
16	6 � 5	90	69	71	33	1.13	3.60

#Mets stats only
@excludes postseason stats