All Purpose Mid-Season Trade Speculation Thread

[Guest Rotblatt]

I figured we should have one of these. Who if anyone should be on the block? Who if anyone should we be targeting?

I've gone on the record (since destroyed in a firey blaze, most likely) as saying that we should try and target young 1B/Cs with significant upside who are blocked by regulars. My two favorites have been 25-year olds Ryan Howard and Kelly Shoppach.

As it turns out, SoSH just started a thread about what they think Stoppach will get in return. The answer so far: not much. "Decent bullpen arm" is about the average expectation, which makes me wonder if I'm valuing him too highly. One poster seems to think that he'll wind up a Mirabelli clone (MLB average OPS of .757 in part-time duty). On the surface, their comaprisons make sense, since Mirabelli & Shoppach have similar minor league averages--.806 OPS for Shoppach and .795 for Mirabelli--but Mirabelli stayed in the minors until he was 28 and dominated the younger players his age 27 & 28 seasons (.845 & .930 OPSs, respectively). By all accounts, Shoppach is ready now. His OPS so far in AAA is .963 with 11 dingers in 140 AB.

In my view, we'd use him as Piazza's backup the rest of the year, then run with him next year. If we can seriously get him for just a bullpen arm, I'd give up anyone not named Looper or Heilman in a flash. If DeJean starts turning it around, we'll have a surplus of arms, especially with 28-year old Padilla doing his best Pedro imitation in AAA (0.78 WHIP, 0.88 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 8.4 K/BB in 41 IP).

Shoppach scouting report:

]Kelly Shoppach was selected in the 2nd round, with the 48th pick overall in the 2001 amatuer draft by the Boston Red Sox. Shoppach grew up in Fort Worth, Texas with his parents Kenny and Gail Shoppach. He played his high school ball at Brewer High School before moving on to Baylor University. Shoppach is your typical dirt dog player, all hustle and no stop in him, an attitude instilled in him by his father.

Ryan Howard would take significantly more than a bullpen arm to land. OPS of 1.099 in AAA this season after putting up 1.033 in AA & .966 in AAA last year (374 & 111 ABs, respectively). The problem with trading for Howard is that the Phillies are in our division and currently in the mix, meaning it's very unlikely they'd trade him to us. They're also not likely to be interested in our OF or RPs. Our SP, on the other hand, could interest them, but we still have the whole inter-league trading problem.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Brett Harper's stock is soaring right now. There's also some third base prospect who Inside Pitch (for what it's worth), says could move Wright to first in a few years.

My thinking is that they Mets are seriously focused on Harper and will look short-term for their first-basing solutions.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Interesting! Harper wasn't really even on my radar.

In looking at his numbers, he certainly seems to be on the right track now. His first three seasons were pretty bad, but he finally earned a promotion to AA last year with a 1.004 OPS at the age of 23. Struggled a bit in AA over his final 174 ABs--his K/BB ratio plummetted and everything dropped--but still managed a .437 SLG. Repeating this year, he looks great, although he could stand to take more pitches: 195 AB, 17 HR, 18 BB, 48 K, .287 AVG, .347 OBP, .610 SLG.

How's his glove, Edge? And do you know the 3B's name?

[MFS62]

If that third baseman you read about is Shawn Bowman, he's far below the Mendoza Line.
David's spot is safe for now.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm just saying what was written, not that I buy it at all.

If the optimism that Inside Pitch showed in the Mets Top 50 prospects was warranted, we'd be sitting tiight waiting for the second coming of the 27 Yankees.

I can't get the source, because my subscription is to the magazine only, for $39.95, while the magazine plus the website access costs $79.95 -- which (a) is a bad policy, and (b) has me thinking we need to pool our brains and resources and start a fan mag of our own.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: has me thinking we need to pool our brains and resources and start a fan mag of our own.

The thought of that is positively scary. Is the world ready?

BTW - congrats for the award for your publication.

Later

[Willets Point]

The WATP Weekly!

[Guest Rotblatt]

Here's BA's list of best in the minor leagues, via ESPN:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2047028&num=1

methodology:

]It's our weekly snapshot of baseball's hottest prospects, combining prospect status with recent performance. This list is not a replacement or an update to our Top 100, because it will often change drastically from week to week based on performance. We are not replacing Delmon Young or Joel Guzman as the top prospects in baseball, rather we are giving you a snapshot of the hottest prospects. Keep up with news on these prospects plus many more on a daily basis with the Daily Dish and The Baseball America Prospect Report. We love to hear your opinions, so send your list to Kevin at kevingoldstein@baseballamerica.com, but keep in mind there are only 20 spots on this list, and chances are there are more than 20 hot prospects during a week-long span. We aren't intentionally forgetting your guy, there's just only so much room. Also remember the key word in the title -- prospect -- so, 25-year-old Class A organizational players who are tearing the cover off the ball rarely apply.

Mettastic guys:

]17. Justin Huber, 1b, Royals (Double-A Wichita) Continuing to put Texas League pitchers on the barbie, Huber ranks second in batting (.366), first in on-base percentage (.467) and second in slugging (.591), and tied for first in RBIs (36). . . . Special Mention Category Brian Daubach, 1b, Mets (Triple-A Norfolk) Daubach didn't make his major league debut until his was 26, but he put together four straight years of 20-plus home runs with the Red Sox from 1999-2002. Signed by the Mets in the offseason, the 33-year-old first baseman is batting .373-8-32 in 39 games for the Tides.

Guys on the list meeting my criteria that we could try and trade for:

]5. Conor Jackson, 1b, Diamondbacks (Triple-A Tucson) Creeping towards .400, Jackson has raised his average to .399 by going 10-for-15 in his last five games. Despite nearly four times as many walks (32) as strikeouts (9), Jackson's .495 on-base percentage doesn't even lead his own team because his teammate is �

Okay, so that's not going to happen any time soon. Wouldn't it be nice to have a David Wrightish clone at 1B, though?

]13. Dan Johnson, 1b, Athletics (Triple-A Sacramento) On the morning of May 1, Johnson was batting .224. Since then he's hit .427-6-20 in 22 May games, including a 16-for-36 run in his last nine.

He had a nice 2004, hitting 29 HR in 536 ABs while posting a .403 OBP. I doubt Beane will give him up, but if he plays well in Durazo's absense, it could mean Durazo would be available when he gets back. Only problem there is Durazo's weak glove.

]16. Josh Willingham, c, Marlins (Triple-A Albuquerque) The PCL slugging leader (.669) has 33 RBIs in 36 games, much of it thanks to some deadly clutch hitting (.571 average with runners in scoring position).

With LoDuca signed for 3 years, Willingham might very well be on the block, but probably not to division rivals. He's still learning defensively, having switched from the infield a year or two ago. He's 26.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm not really shopping, but, if I were, I wouldn't worry too much about Durazo's glove.

For one thing, he could get late inning defensive help from a grouchy Mientkiewicz.

Then he could win another championship, and, despite being again one of the lesser-used guys on a championship team, keep another championship ball.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I like the way you think, Edgy.

[MFS62]

Rotblatt, thanks for the info.
That player at Sacramento would have me drooling if it weren't for the fact that I remember reading something about his home ballpark a while ago. IIRC, it had either a very short fence or the wind constantly blowing out (Like the famous Seals Staduim, SF, jetstream).
I wonder what his home/away splits are.

Later

[Guest Rotblatt]

SoSH is obsessed with trading for Adam Dunn. I don't quite get it, since their offense is, you know, pretty good, even with Millar sucking at 1B. Plus signing Dunn would mean either he or Ortiz (or Nixon or Manny) sits out during NL games, which might not matter much now, but come October . . . Plus, pitching is their bigger problem.

Anyway, they repeated a rumor heard of Dunn being shopped to the MFY for a ridiulous package of Cano, Duncan & Wang.

Now, as unrealistic as the specifics there are, they do raise an interesting idea--trading for Adam Dunn, who will soon be too expensive for the Reds (who have plenty of top-notch OF prospects) to keep. I think his contract is up after this year (he's making ~$4.6M).

Dunno about you guys, but for a guy like Dunn, I'd be willing to give up an awful lot. He's 25, a power lefty, he takes a shitload of walks, and can play either 1B or OF. Oh, and he can steal a base too.

You might ask, why would the Reds trade Dunn, but I think it's clear from Dunn's comments that he's not enamoured of the Red's organization. He hasn't liked Miley's use of him--not to mention Miley taking away his massage chair--and he's pissed off about Graves being let go

The knocks against him: not hitting lefties well this year (.628 OPS instead of 1.111, although he's hit them fine other years). Not particularly good defensively.

So what would it take to get him? Well, they desperately need pitching. I'd give up Petit or Humber in a heartbeat, and throw on Heilman as well. Plus Seo and their choice of Matsui, Cairo or Keppinger, if they really want a 2B.

This is assuming, of course, that we immediately sign Dunn to oh, say a 7-year extension.

The idea of Dunn, Wright, Beltran & Reyes being the backbone of our lineup for the next 5 years makes me very, very happy.

on edit:

Think of the lineup! I can't even come up with a batting order, because it's too bloody difficult! 1. Reyes 2. Cameron? Wright? 3. Beltran 4. Floyd? Wright? Dunn? 5. Dunn? Floyd? Wright? 6. Wright? Floyd? Dunn? 7. Piazza 8. Matsui . . .

Not to mention, we'd have a lot of flexibility in the offseason. If we didn't think Diaz was ready and wanted to move Cameron or Floyd for pitching, we could try and sign either an OF or a 1B, since Dunn can play either. And in general, we'd have enough offense to be able to trade some away, if needed . . .

[metsmarathon]

petit, heilman, seo, and keppinger?

all for adam dunn?

i think that's a bit of overpayment...

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm so stand-pat.

How about we wait until the trade deadline and see if he's htting lefties by then?

The Mets could potentially accomplish a lot by standing still the next few years.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]petit, heilman, seo, and keppinger? all for adam dunn? i think that's a bit of overpayment...

Sure, it's a lot--maybe even more than we'd need to give up--but IMO, players like Dunn don't come around too often. If that's what it took to get him, I'd be fine with it, although less, of course, is better. Keppinger, despite his solid year so far, still isn't really considered much of a prospect, Seo is a #4 pitcher at best, and Heilman is still a mystery. Petit & Heilman probably have the most value for the Reds . . .

Dunn is just a monster. Despite hitting only .241 right now, he has a .398 OBP. And 15 HR to go along with a .560 SLG. And he's only 25!! In his worst year, he had a .354 OBP, 27 HR, and a .819 OPS. That's about what Beltran is on pace for so far this year.

Dunn is scary good, but undervalued by peeps because he K's so much and doesn't hit for average. Long-term, we need a 1B. If he's anywhere near the trading block, we need to elbow our way to the front of the line and start dealing.

[metirish]

I'd rather trade for Sean Casey who would fill the need at 1st,can hit , is a great guy, and loves NY...and I doubt would cost what Dunn would.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think players like Dunn come around a little more often than one might think when they're breathing in front of you.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Splits v. Lefties:
2005: .639 (1.108 v. right) 68 AB
2004: .829 (1.015 v. right) 180 AB
2003: .787 (.832 v. right) 119 AB
2002: .906 (.829 v. right) 169 AB
3-year split (2002-2005): .846 (.902 v. right)

I'm guessing this year so far is just an abberation.

In terms of staying pat, I hear you, but we don't have internal options at 1B or C next year and are going to have to do something. Well, unless we get Floyd in at 1B, use Diaz in LF and Castro suddenly realizes the potential he had when he was a 1st round draft pick . . . All possible, but not terribly likely.

The FA market will be thin for 1Bs this offseason, which makes it a little more reasonable to me for us to try and trade for Dunn.

[nymr83]

i'd pay up Seo or Heilman + Humber or Petit + Keppinger or Cairo for the guy easily. Dunn is a great young hitter and exactly what this team needs at 1B.

[Frayed Knot]

The speculation about Dunn stems from Cincy mgmt saying that they'll "talk about anyone" recently. That doesn't mean they're actively shopping Dunn but talk like that always sets off a frenzy. And now with Wily Mo Pena coming off the DL the strength of the Reds in clearly in the OF/1B dept.

fwiw, Dunn is in his 4th full season so would controlled by his team from now thru the end of '07. He's into the arb-eligible range so those wouldn't be cheap years but he wouldn't go on the open market until the winter '07/'08.
Casey already has hit his 6th year so he's under control for as long as his current contract lasts (I don't know what that is).

Things like that are major factors when deciding not only IF you should make a bid for these guys but also what the price should be.

[nymr83]

also, we can get a discount from Dunn by promising him a new massage chair every season that we won't take away.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]I think players like Dunn come around a little more often than one might think when they're breathing in front of you.

I don't get it. Are you talking about Diaz? There's still room for Diaz on the team--we'd make Dunn the 1B.

As for players like Dunn coming around often, here are his top 3 comps through Age 24 (from Baseball-Reference):

1. Reggie Jackson (948)
2. Darryl Strawberry (941)
3. Troy Glaus (924)

Most similar by age:

22. Darryl Strawberry (959)
23. Pete Incaviglia (944)
24. Reggie Jackson (948)

Thanks for the contract info, Frayed! I wasn't sure about any of that.

As for Casey, his contract was extended through 2006, according to ESPN.com. "Sean Casey had his contract extended through the 2006 season on Friday, the clearest message yet that the Cincinnati Reds have no intention of trading him. Instead, they picked up an $8.5 million option for the additional year."


Casey's a solid target too, but it sounds like Dunn might be a better bet . . .

[seawolf17]

Yeah! Let's get a guy whose career track is similar to Darryl Strawberry! That'd be a GREAT idea! (sarcasm mode turned off)

Honestly, I'd love to see Dunn at Shea.

[Guest Rotblatt]

heh. Baseball Reference should have an Off-Field Career Tracker to go along with their on-field one . . .

[seawolf17]

If you think about it, the similarity score ranked by age tells you a lot. Look at Straw:

Curt Blefary (966) - age 22
Reggie Jackson (975)
Reggie Jackson (955)
Reggie Jackson (939)
Jose Canseco (932)
Reggie Jackson (944)
Jose Canseco (954)
Reggie Jackson (951)
Reggie Jackson (955)
Roger Maris (918)
Roger Maris (938)
Greg Vaughn (938)
Greg Vaughn (930)
Jay Buhner (961)
Jay Buhner (928)
Eric Davis (891) - age 37

He goes from Blefary, who flamed out at 25; to Reggie & Canseco, two feared sluggers; to Maris, a B-level power threat at best; to Vaughn, who struck out more than anything else; to Buhner, a career .254 hitter; to Eric Davis, who got hurt and fizzled after 30, except for one or two good seasons.

Obviously, you have Straw's "other" issues, but it's still a neat comparison.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I just mean that when a guy with good numbers is on the market and you're wanting, you convince yourself that his skills are scarcer than they seem.

It was said over and over that our opportunity at Vladdie Guererro was an opportunity of great rareness. The Mets blew it. But went out and got a similarly valuable outfielder in Beltran this offseason. More expensive, perhaps, as the market shifted, but still.

I don't put much stock in similarity scores because they're not ballpark or era adjusted. The league is full of peeps right now hitting like young Reggie.

Now, there're some downright awful ideas among potential free agent firstbaseman, third basemen, and outfielders this offseason, but some good ones also. I'm not advocating any of them, only that the availability of such fallback alternatives in the offseason market (and presumably quite a few of them in the deadline trade market) should mean that the acquisition of Mr. Dunn shouldn't cost us so damn much of the future.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I can respect that, Edge, but I still think that Dunn is a special player--right up there with Vladdy and Beltran. But even younger.

As for costing us too much of the future, I tend to think that giving up the chances that Petit will be an ace and Heilman will turn into a solid #2/3 pitcher are totally worth exchanging for a 25-year old slugger whose averaged better than a .380 OBP & .510 SLG through 4 years. Especially since we'd control him for 2+ years. I mean, his best is likely yet to come . . . Oh , and I view Cairo/Keppinger as replacement level players, for the most part--valuable pieces in the right circumstances, but basically throw-ins.

I might add that compared to the Kazmir trade, my idea is the epitome of prudence. Not that every trade is good simply because it's not as bad as that one, but just to keep things in perspective . . .

[Willets Point]

I get a nervous tick in my eye whenever I hear my adoptee's name in trade rumors.

[Frayed Knot]

fwiw;

Buster Olney on BB2N says that Cincy claims not to be in trade mode at this time.

Also Olney, plus Gammons the other day on the radio, both say that Prince Fielder remains a year or so away from being ready - which is only significant in that it means there's no push to deal Lyle Overbay any time soon (unlike Weeks being ready helping to push Spivey out the door)

[smg58]

Not Dunn. I would not trust a one-dimensional power hitter coming from that sandlot to here. Sean Casey would be a better fit. And why not ask about Ryan Freel, while we're at it? Freel leading off and Reyes batting second would make a lot of catchers nervous.