The Braves are coming to town -- IGT 6/12/26

[Frayed Knot]

First meeting with Atlanta but not the last. As Gary mentioned during Wednesday's game, the fact that the Mets have yet to face either Atlanta or Philly means that over 27% of their remaining games this season [26 of 94] will be against one of those two.

The Braves, a 76-86 team last season, sit with the best record in the sport this year and an 8 game lead in the NL East. So while we watch NYM bats hit significantly under their back of the baseball card stats, Brave hitters are almost all going in the other direction.

C - Drake Baldwin: 128 OPS+ last year / 163 this season; 1B - Matt Olson: 140 / 153; 2B - Ozzie Albies: 90 / 121; Cf - Michael Harris: 90 / 140

Annnnd they're getting ridiculous contributions from bench players/injury replacements. SS Ha Seong Kim goes down, pick up two 31 y/o career backups in Mauricio Dubon and Jorge Mateo and watch them put up by far the best seasons of their careers: Dubon = 107 OPS+ vs career 85, and Mateo 135 / 77. Or sign on the verge of being out of the game entirely Dom Smith and watch him hit near .300 with his best season since the shortened 2020 campaign, aka: the year he picked up some down ballot MVP votes (finished 13th).

Now they are dealing with some injuries, namely Ronald Acuna was just IL'd with (yet another) hamstring issue, and Both of their catchers: Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy. But their pitchers are all healthy with all the starters pitching above league average and basically half their pen has WHIPs under 1.00

The Braves are on a two game losing streak right now having lost two one-run games to the suddenly resurgent (and 1st Place!!) White Sox before getting rained out on Thursday. Prior to that, of course, they had won 8 of 10 so I don't think this 'slump' will bust them.

 

Friday's opener will be a 7:15 game on Apple+ game (boooo) featuring Spencer Strider [7 starts this year, 4.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP] vs Nolan McLean.

Then a 4:10 game on Sat (SNY) and 1:40 on Sunday (PIX).

[Centerfield]

So the Braves are over performing and the crash down to mean is going to be cruel and epic. Got it. 

[metirish]

Ugh,  I don't have Apple TV anymore, oh well 

[MFS62]

Well done, FK.

And scary.

Later

[seawolf17]

We're going to either win these three games by the combined score of 28-23, or lose all three like 38-2.

[Frayed Knot]

5 hours ago, MFS62 said:

Well done, FK.

And scary.

But wait (as they say on informercials) there's more ... and it gets worse!

So not only is Atlanta 4th in MLB in BA (.256), 9th in OBA (.323), 3rd in SLG (.428) and 3rd in OPS (751) -- behind only LAD & NYY in both SLG & OPS -- but put duckies on ponds and those numbers jump across the board. This is a concept very unlike the 2025 Mets who had every starter (except Pete) lose 100 or more points off his (or her, we have to be inclusive these days) OPS when runners were involved including a 300 to 500 point loss in the cases of Lindor and Soto until the universe at least started to align itself somewhat in the post-ASB portion of the season. A bit of regression to the mean and all that.

So that .256 Braves BA? .... yeah, that turns into .283 w/men on and .285 if they're RiSP.  The .323 OBA? that becomes .354 & .355.  A .428 slug stat? Not with men on it isn't, try .460/.459. All of which combines for a 706 bases empty OPS, an 814 Runners-on OPS, and an 813 RiSP OPS

I'd like to find out what color the sky is in a world where my team does that sort of thing. 

 

[MFS62]

Yikes!

Later

[Edgy MD]

MJ finding his power stroke and staying in the lineup.

And hey, when did Mike Yastrzemski become a Bravo?

ATLANTA

Starting Pitcher:

Spencer Strider RHP 4-1, 4.00 ERA, 43 SO

Lineup:

1. Mauricio Dubón (R) LF
2. Michael Harris II (L) CF
3. Matt Olson (L) 1B
4. Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
5. Dominic Smith (L) DH
6. Austin Riley (R) 3B
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L) RF
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS
9. Austin Wynns (R) C

METS

Starting Pitcher:

Nolan McLean RHP 3-4, 3.98 ERA, 82 SO

Lineup:

1. Carson Benge (L) RF
2. Bo Bichette (R) SS
3. Juan Soto (L) LF
4. Jared Young (L) 1B
5. A.J. Ewing (L) CF
6. Marcus Semien (R) 2B
7. Brett Baty (L) 3B
8. MJ Melendez (L) DH
9. Luis Torrens (R) C

[MFS62]

Will Hank Fischer from Yonkers be there?

later