A.J. Ewing's Summer Slump Is Both Multitudinous and Fixable

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

New York Mets rookie sensation A.J. Ewing has dropped to a 45 wRC+ in August, and though that might look like a reasonable slump for a rookie, the struggles actually began in July. After recording 1.0 fWAR and producing a 119 wRC+ between May and June, he has plummeted to a 74 wRC+ since last month. So, let's analyze what we should really worry about regarding the two versions of Ewing we have seen.

Curiously, both halves of our sample consist of exactly 177 plate appearances each.

Period	WAR	wRC+	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	xBA	xSLG	Barrel%	IdealAtkAng%
MAY-JUNE	1.0	119	28.1%	63.4%	.278	.426	6.3%	37.4%
JULY-AUGUST	0.3	74	30.1%	71.0%	.238	.388	9.8%	44.4%
DIFFERENCES	-0.7	-45	+2.0%	+7.6%	-.040	-.038	+3.5%	+7.0%

At first glance, two results stand out: Ewing is producing less, but several metrics show that he is making better contact. His Barrel% has increased by 3.5 percentage points, his ideal attack angle rate has also shown a very interesting improvement, and he has increased his swings at pitches inside the strike zone. Now, the concerning part is that Ewing has not been able to convert those improvements into actual results. And clearly, much of the problem has intensified during this month. Here are two key reasons: the drop in his power against fastballs, and his swing-and-miss rates against breaking balls.

A.J. Ewing vs. fastballs

Metric	August	2026
xBA	.311	.283
xSLG	.233	.458
xwOBA	.379	.367
Whiffs%	6.7%	15.1%

Ewing has made a great improvement by reducing his whiff rate by 8.4 percentage points, but his drop from .458 to .233 in xSLG has been terrible. He is making contact, but pitchers are considerably limiting his impact.

Here, you can see where the problem is concentrated inside and outside the strike zone. In nine of the 12 zones, his slugging has been almost nonexistent, especially up and on the inner half of the zone. Exit velocities haven't been the issue, but rather where a large portion of those balls in play are going.

Those exit velocities in the strike zone have been great, but the location of the batted balls has stopped presenting a threat. This part of Ewing's problem ties into his struggles against breaking balls. Unlike the lack of production against fastballs, this month he is producing the best xSLG (.578) and highest average exit velocity (94.4) against any pitch group this year. However, his swing-and-miss issues have climbed back to their peak (38.2% whiff rate), just like they did in June. This trend becomes even more dangerous as pitchers succeed in neutralizing Ewing's impact against fastballs, and breaking pitches have once again caused his put-away rate (i.e., rate of being struck out on two-strike counts) to spike (25.9%).

Let's analyze this interesting comparison here. On the left are Ewing's whiff rates during May and June against breaking pitches, while the right side shows the results from July to the present. Stability in the upper part of the zone has been maintained, but whiffs spiked in the lower zones and the outer edges.

In short, pitchers are finishing at-bats against Ewing with more high fastballs and plenty of breaking pitches down, especially away. His season-long xSLG against fastballs leaves some hope if he manages to make adjustments to hit more consistently toward the pull side, but his situation against breaking balls poses a bigger problem. If he connects, Ewing destroys them. Too often, though, he fails to make contact at all. So, a large part of his struggles from July until now could turn around if he improves his swing selection.

At just 22 years old, Ewing has shown enough talent to keep this slump from turning into a major problem. Seeing how he works to make adjustments to this newfound, exploitable weakness down this final stretch of the campaign will be one of the most interesting storylines within the Mets' disastrous season.

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[smg58]

This ties in well with a thread that was started yesterday.  In oldpeoplespeak, pitchers have enough of a book on Ewing to adjust to his weaknesses.  This is basically a variant of the "sophomore jinx."  Nobody in March was expecting Ewing to contribute meaningfully this season at the top level, and it's forgivable if he's rawer than most rookies.  The good news is the holes in Ewing's game look easy to fix, and for better or worse the Mets can afford to give him plenty of time. 

[Centerfield]

Why do you feel like the holes are easy to fix?

(not saying they're not, just wondering what you see that leads you to conclude that)

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

All you have to do is start a Ewing Sucks thread. Usually works.

[smg58]

38 minutes ago, Centerfield said:

Why do you feel like the holes are easy to fix?

(not saying they're not, just wondering what you see that leads you to conclude that)

From what I'm gathering, what Ewing most needs to do is avoid chasing the breaking pitches down and away.  He's hardly unique in that regard, and it's certainly not a shocking issue for somebody who wasn't expected to be here yet.  His talent and his rapid advance through the system suggest that he can make the adjustments when he needs to.  It's not a guarantee, of course.

[Centerfield]

2 hours ago, Johnny Lunchbucket said:

All you have to do is start a Ewing Sucks thread. Usually works.

Not for nothing, around the time he started slumping, I questioned if Benge was untouchable and mentioned how much more confident I was in Ewing. 
 

Really, I suck. That’s kinda what’s going on here. 

[smg58]

I will go on record as saying that I really enjoy discussing the Mets with all of you here, even when we disagree, and none of you suck.

Benge didn't have a whole lot of AAA experience, either, and his season has been one of adjustment and counter-adjustment as well.  Hopefully he's cleared his biggest obstacles.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

He's killing this team

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Him and Alvarez I mean.

[Centerfield]

AJ looks visibly frustrated. There was a close call that went against him yesterday. He thought to challenge, then thought better of it.  Then it kinda made him defensive the rest of the AB. 
 

He looks like he’s caught in between. Maybe thinking too much. And he’s missing hittable pitches when he gets them. 
 

easier said than done, but maybe he needs to clear his mind and just see the ball, hit the ball and take your swinging Ks if it happens. 

[smg58]

22 hours ago, Johnny Lunchbucket said:

Him and Alvarez I mean.

To be fair, I'd have a different attitude toward the situation if the Mets were fighting for a playoff spot.  As it stands, I'm not worried about him killing what's already dead, and I think he and the Mets would be better served by him working through this up here.

[Lefty Specialist]

They adjust to you, and you adjust to them.  Been going on for 150 years.  I'm confident Ewing will figure it out, and yeah, he's only 21.

Alvarez is another problem though.  He's had plenty of major league time and he seems to keep getting into bad habits, like swinging at pitches up in his eyes and down and away.  He seemed to figure it out for a bit, but he's back to his free-swinging ways.