A.J. Ewing's Summer Slump Is Both Multitudinous and Fixable

New York Mets rookie sensation A.J. Ewing has dropped to a 45 wRC+ in August, and though that might look like a reasonable slump for a rookie, the struggles actually began in July. After recording 1.0 fWAR and producing a 119 wRC+ between May and June, he has plummeted to a 74 wRC+ since last month. So, let's analyze what we should really worry about regarding the two versions of Ewing we have seen.

Curiously, both halves of our sample consist of exactly 177 plate appearances each.

At first glance, two results stand out: Ewing is producing less, but several metrics show that he is making better contact. His Barrel% has increased by 3.5 percentage points, his ideal attack angle rate has also shown a very interesting improvement, and he has increased his swings at pitches inside the strike zone. Now, the concerning part is that Ewing has not been able to convert those improvements into actual results. And clearly, much of the problem has intensified during this month. Here are two key reasons: the drop in his power against fastballs, and his swing-and-miss rates against breaking balls.

A.J. Ewing vs. fastballs

Ewing has made a great improvement by reducing his whiff rate by 8.4 percentage points, but his drop from .458 to .233 in xSLG has been terrible. He is making contact, but pitchers are considerably limiting his impact.

Here, you can see where the problem is concentrated inside and outside the strike zone. In nine of the 12 zones, his slugging has been almost nonexistent, especially up and on the inner half of the zone. Exit velocities haven't been the issue, but rather where a large portion of those balls in play are going.

Those exit velocities in the strike zone have been great, but the location of the batted balls has stopped presenting a threat. This part of Ewing's problem ties into his struggles against breaking balls. Unlike the lack of production against fastballs, this month he is producing the best xSLG (.578) and highest average exit velocity (94.4) against any pitch group this year. However, his swing-and-miss issues have climbed back to their peak (38.2% whiff rate), just like they did in June. This trend becomes even more dangerous as pitchers succeed in neutralizing Ewing's impact against fastballs, and breaking pitches have once again caused his put-away rate (i.e., rate of being struck out on two-strike counts) to spike (25.9%).

Let's analyze this interesting comparison here. On the left are Ewing's whiff rates during May and June against breaking pitches, while the right side shows the results from July to the present. Stability in the upper part of the zone has been maintained, but whiffs spiked in the lower zones and the outer edges.

In short, pitchers are finishing at-bats against Ewing with more high fastballs and plenty of breaking pitches down, especially away. His season-long xSLG against fastballs leaves some hope if he manages to make adjustments to hit more consistently toward the pull side, but his situation against breaking balls poses a bigger problem. If he connects, Ewing destroys them. Too often, though, he fails to make contact at all. So, a large part of his struggles from July until now could turn around if he improves his swing selection.

At just 22 years old, Ewing has shown enough talent to keep this slump from turning into a major problem. Seeing how he works to make adjustments to this newfound, exploitable weakness down this final stretch of the campaign will be one of the most interesting storylines within the Mets' disastrous season.