Let's talk about Teruaki Sato

[Benjamin Grimm]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mets-reportedly-interested-in-npb-star-teruaki-sato

 

Quote

 

The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies are among those to be linked to star Japanese slugger Teruaki Sato, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Sato, 27, could come to MLB in the offseason through Nippon Professional Baseball’s posting system.

Heyman specifically pointed out the Mets’ scouting of and potential interest in Sato, adding that he may need to switch from third base to first base if he lands in Queens. The Mets may be expecting Bo Bichette to opt into his contract next season and man third base, leaving space only at first for Sato.

The lefty-swinging Sato has turned into a superstar with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers, winning 2025 Central League MVP honors after mashing 40 home runs with 102 RBIs. He’s again crushing the ball in 2026, hitting 27 home runs on a 1.026 OPS in 103 games. Sato has hit at least 20 home runs in five of his six NPB seasons.

 

 

[MFS62]

I was going to post this in the Polanco thread.

The numbers:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=sato--000ter

Later

[Gwreck]

Bichette could also play second next year if he returns and Sato needs to play third.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's worth noting that this is a "posting" situation, and that Sato won't be a traditional free agent.

[Centerfield]

Teriyaki Sato is a name I'd come up with if I didn't know any real japanese people and was forced to name one on the spot.  

[Benjamin Grimm]

Better than "Mister Roboto", I guess.

[The Hot Corner]

Probably a step up from Polanco, both offensively and defensively.  If he can emulate Murakami and Okamoto (low Ave. w/ high power output) he would be a significant upgrade at first base for the Mets.   

The Mets would still need a strong right hand bat to help balance the line up.  First base, DH, or LF are the best places for them to find the right-hand power bat they desperately need.  

[smg58]

I'm worried that he'll need to have Murakami's level of power to make the strikeouts tolerable and will likely come up short in that regard.  I think Ty France would be a better fit for less money.

[seawolf17]

His B-R page says he's never even played an inning at first base.

How about we find an actual first baseman this offseason? You know, let's try something novel that oh, I don't know, EVERY OTHER MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM DOES.

[Edgy MD]

I think the Major Leagues are filled with firstbasemen who ended up there after sliding over from other positions.  Some did in high school. Some did in the minors, and some did in the majors, often well into their careers.

[Centerfield]

37 minutes ago, seawolf17 said:

How about we find an actual first baseman this offseason? 

David Stearns checks the CBA to see if this is allowed. 

[Edgy MD]

In the Mets own division:

• In Atlanta there's Matt Olson, who seems for all the world like a pure firstbaseman, but he spent half his time in the outfield in the minors.
   
• Philadelphia is playing Alec Bohm over there, moving him from third to accommodate Luis Arraez playing second, forcing Brandon Scott to move to third.  Bohm going to first forces their superstar firstbaseman back into the outfield, from where he moved to first at 31 despite having played a total of 1/3 of an inning there previously in an emergency situation.  He had earlier in his career moved from catcher, where he played in junior college, to center, to right, to first, and now back in right.
   
• Miami's most frequent occupant of first base this season has been Kyle Stowers, who has spent all of nine out of his total 3,700+ minor-league innings at the cold corner.
   
• And here we are playing Washington, breaking in a brand-new first baseman, a converted outfielder who is not situated where he is because his experience and nuanced dexterity make him a fine asset.  He's there because he's hitting like a mofo but he's too hefty to put anywhere else.

Folks don't play first because they're good at and experienced at playing first.  They play there because they can hit and lefthandedness and/or defensive limitations relative to the other eight guys make them poor choices to play elsewhere.

The Mets had the best defensive firstbaseman in history, but when his bat stopped being effective, his glove couldn't stop them from getting rid of him, and Cleveland quickly realized they were right.

The Rays have baseball's best record, and they're playing a guy at first who was a middle infielder up until he reached the cusp of the majors.

And then there's Scott Hatteberg, whose experience concerns over his move to first were so overblown, somebody made a movie about it. 

So yeah, when looking for someone to play first, I have no problem with considering everybody to be candidates.  Guys transitioning from third, catcher, shortstop, weak-side linebacker, goaltender, fishmonger, lumberjack ... if they can hit, they're a candidate to play first.

[MFS62]

LOL!

Rules for playing first base:

1) Put foot on first base

2) Catch the throw from the infielder

3) Take foot off bag before the runner spikes you.

Requirements for playing first base

1) The ability to hit 

 

Later

 

[smg58]

I know Keith has criticized the Mets for taking first base too lightly, and I wouldn't expect anything different from him given that Edgy's description of him is accurate and it's obvious he took an enormous amount of pride in that facet of his game.  But moving people around is not unique to us.  Bichette was asked to switch positions during the World Series, Edgy mentioned what the Phillies did just to accommodate Luis Arraez, and the Nationals just announced that they are moving C. J. Abrams from shortstop to second base right now, in the heat of a pennant race.  I was watching a Mets game that was nationally televised, and Vientos made a bad play at first.  The head announcer asked the color commentator if it was reasonable for the Mets to ask Vientos to switch from third to first and expect things to work out.  The color commentator was Todd Zeile.

Of course fans will hold you to account if you do something risky and it doesn't pan out, especially in New York.  But defense didn't put the Mets where they are this season.

[MFS62]

9 minutes ago, smg58 said:

 

Of course fans will hold you to account if you do something risky and it doesn't pan out, especially in New York.  But defense didn't put the Mets where they are this season.

But when the GM says that he would stress run prevention, any defensive gaffes that cost games become magnified.

Later

[Edgy MD]

The Fielding Bible has The 2026 Mets at 2 defensive runs save at first base, which isn't turning a season around (not a season like this, anyhow) one way or another, but it's 10th in all of MLB.

Last season, they were 29th, with -10 defensive runs saved (which maybe should be called 10 defensive runs squandered).

I don't know how authoritative that is, but they are a Bible.

[smg58]

2 hours ago, MFS62 said:

But when the GM says that he would stress run prevention, any defensive gaffes that cost games become magnified.

Later

I'm not arguing this point at all.  Stearns did not appreciate that Cedric Mullins and Marcus Semien had declining defensive value and were no longer on the good side of average.  (And if he is as obsessed with analytics as some of his detractors make him out to be, he would/should have known.)  And Baty is not going to become a good outfielder by playing there occasionally.  (Plus with Robert healthy and Benge and Ewing established here, there is really no need.) 

[smg58]

1 hour ago, Edgy MD said:

The Fielding Bible has The 2026 Mets at 2 defensive runs save at first base, which isn't turning a season around (not a season like this, anyhow) one way or another, but it's 10th in all of MLB.

Last season, they were 29th, with -10 defensive runs saved (which maybe should be called 10 defensive runs squandered).

The Mets are a top 10 defense according to the Fielding Bible, although our backup catcher is responsible for a fair chunk of that.  The only noticeable negatives (at least last time I checked) are Alvarez (he's had trouble staying healthy, but I think DHing consistently against lefties will keep him in the lineup and help his bat and glove in the long run), Soto (we read the fine print when we bought him), and Semien (umm, yeah, that kind of flies in the face of why we supposedly got him in the first place).

[seawolf17]

Fine. "Defense isn't the reason we suck.: BUT.

Mets first basemen: FIRST in errors, 30th in Fielding Percentage, 30th in DPs, 29th in WAR, 28th in offensive WAR.

Fuck Stearns and his stupidass plans.

 

[Gwreck]

On 8/15/2026 at 9:53 AM, Edgy MD said:

if they can hit, they're a candidate to play first.

I generally agree, but there does have to be some sort of balance too.

In an article this week, Will Sammon of the Athletic pointed out that the Mets were 29th out of 30 MLB teams in first base production as measured by WAR.  

[Edgy MD]

Yes, and that is bad.  But it is not an indictment of looking at players who have been playing other positions.  It's an indictment of looking to players who have had spotty health history, underwhelming track records, and an enticing affordability relative to Pete Alonso.

To a lesser extent it's also an indictment of bad luck.  They placed a handful of conservative bets, but almost all of their rolls with regard to first base came up snake eyes.

Branch Rickey called luck "the residue of design."  That may be so, in full or part, but it's sure been some gross and sticky residue over there this year.

[Centerfield]

Hanshin Tigers confirm that Sato will be posted this winter. 

[Benjamin Grimm]

This might get interesting...

[MFS62]

Which brings us back to - if management thinks he can provide a substantial difference in the run production they had last year, try to sign him.

Later

[Gwreck]

Obviously something has to be done to improve run production over last year.  And assuming there’s an interest in doing something more than just “hope Lindor, Soto, and Bichette are all better/healthier,” Sato is a very interesting candidate.

The one obvious red flag I see is defense.  He makes a lot of errors at third and probably isn’t a long-term solution there.  But on a short-term basis?  The Mets have a lot of infield prospects that aren’t going to be ready for 2027 but could easily take that job in a year or two.

If Bichette opts out, Sato is an obvious choice.  

If Bichette stays?   Sato could play third (moving Bichette to second, Semien cut/to bench).  The Mets could try another season of a new first baseman who’s never played there before.  Or Sato could be an everyday DH.  

In a situation in which Bichette stays and/or the Mets are willing to cut/bench Semien, my preference is still Brandon Lowe.  But Sato a close second place.
 

[Frayed Knot]

Wouldn't it be confusing with Soto and Sato on the same roster?

Just for kicks they should hire Sammy Sosa and Chris Sabo as coaches (or as players, although they're kind of old for that).

 

The all-time four-letter Consonant-Vowel-Consonant-Vowel team: Sammy Sosa, Juan Soto, Chris Sabo, Barry Zito, Luis Sojo, John Jaha, Mike Laga. And then you get Lady Gaga to sing the national anthem.

[Centerfield]

Okamoto went from .992 in Japan to .762 in MLB. A drop of 230 points. 
 

Murakami was 1.051 in NPB. And put up an .825 OPS in MLB. Down 226 points. 
 

Seiya Suzuki has a larger body of work. He had a 1.069 OPS his last year of NPB. His career OPS in MLB is .823. A difference of 246 points. 

Sato had a .991 OPS last year. Take away 230 points or so and you’re looking at a .761 OPS. 

[Centerfield]

As far as power:

Suzuki has averaged 22.6 HR over his 5 year career. He hit 38 his last year in Japan. 
 

Okamoto was hurt in 2025. But hit 27 HR in 2024. He hit 33 for Toronto last year. 
 

Murakami was also hurt in 2025. In 2024, he hit 33 HR. He hit 35 for CWS this year. 

[Gwreck]

28 minutes ago, Centerfield said:

Sato had a .991 OPS last year. Take away 230 points or so and you’re looking at a .761 OPS. 

.761 OPS would put you at #68 among all MLB hitters in 2026.

 

[ashie62]

28 minutes ago, Centerfield said:

As far as power:

Suzuki has averaged 22.6 HR over his 5 year career. He hit 38 his last year in Japan. 
 

Okamoto was hurt in 2025. But hit 27 HR in 2024. He hit 33 for Toronto last year. 
 

Murakami was also hurt in 2025. In 2024, he his 33 HR. He hit 35 for CWS this year. 

I'd gladly take something close to the production quoted above

I had set a very low bar on what Okamota and Murakami would do in the preseason 

I'd like to be wrong again with Sato thriving as a Met

I've spoken well of Jared Young as a low cost 1B option for next year. That concussion looked so bad the I hope it doesn't linger or effect his future health