Brandon Nimmo Sucks

[Fman99]

His numbers will be there at years' end but he's very spurty. He'll go two weeks looking lost and awful and then have a day like yesterday. I'd like to see him be more even keeled, production wise. I also think his overall game has suffered as he's tried to become a power hitter. Much like McNeil's did when he took the same approach a few years back.

[Centerfield]

Brandon Nimmo since his 2 HR day in Washington.



BA: .185

OBP: .313

SLG: .370

OPS: .683



In other words, more of the same.

[Benjamin Grimm]

He's definitely a concern. I was glad when he was resigned after the 2022 season, but I think the eight years made me raise my eyebrows. I don't remember for sure, and I can't check because I've repositioned my eyebrows a few times since then.

[batmagadanleadoff]

The Athletic had a piece published yesterday or today featuring a few baseball players who are struggling according to traditional stats but whose peripheral and modern stats remain high (barrel rate, hard hit rate, chase rate, BABIP, a few others). The theory is that those players will likely bounce back. Brandon Nimmo was the featured player in the article.

[Centerfield]

Brandon Nimmo OPS by Month



2025

April: .673

May: .698



Not bouncing back.

[Edgy MD]

Had two hits upon his return to a table-setting spot in the order yesterday.



It was something.

[The Hot Corner]

I definitely prefer him in the 2 spot of the line up rather than 4th or 5th.

[Centerfield]

Brandon Nimmo OPS since my last post 7 days ago: .985



Season OPS up to .713 now. Obviously not good, but trending up, hopefully. I don't understand why he can't be OBP Nimmo when he hits lower in the order too.

[Edgy MD]

Something about either his philosophy or the team's appears to have been telling him that his job is different if he hits in the middle of the order. It is that sort of stinking thinking that turned Jeff Francoeur from a young megatalent to a goofy broadcaster with an indifferent career behind him. If it takes moving Nimmo in the lineup to disabuse him of that, it is worth it.



Ballplayers and coaches who aren't necessarily dumb can be narrow-minded and get locked into a bad idea. The game comes at them so fast (especially for the hitters), that they intentionally filter out conflicting information — even if it is conflicting for a good reason — in order to maintain focus in a high-pressure situation. And sticking with a bad idea that you have committed to and worked hard on is somehow less frightening than making a further adjustment (and perhaps getting caught in between approaches) mid-season.



Please see, for instance, Travis d'Arnaud's deeply frustrating long swing period. We were all STOP THAT SHIT NOW!!! and he was all maybe, if I continue to fail relentlessly, I'll switch things up in the offseason.



It's like they made a deal with The Devil and somehow couldn't stop if they wanted to.

[MFS62]

I think it also goes back to baseball tradition (or how they learned it).

They've been told and coached that it is the job of hitters high up on the order to get on base. So (IMO) the batter may change his approach and is more selective, walking or hitting the ball "where it's pitched" -result avg and OBP up and power down.

They also have been told that a hitter's job down in the order is to drive in runs, so they swing harder, aren't as selective and don't concentrate on the walk.- result power up and OBP down.



I think Nimmo is an OBP player playing an OPS position. No wonder why at times looks gets confused.

It might be better for him to be put in one position in the order and just left there.

As Yogi Berra said, "half of this game is 90% mental".



Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Check out his splits. Nimmo's OPS is almost 150 points higher on the road. Citi Field ranks as about the most extreme pitcher's Park in baseball for offense, hits and homers. Citi Field is even tougher on hitters in April and May, when hard hit balls simply die in the outfield. It's colder at Citi Field than most anywhere else in the five boroughs until the Summer warm weather arrives.



Maybe thats part of why the Mets sucked last year until about Memorial Day. Maybe that's why Soto started so slowly.

[MFS62]

Interesting numbers.

Thanks.

Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Of course, when I referenced Soto's slow start, I meant slow start for Soto. With his practically league-leading walks, he's still an asset. A lineup top to bottom comprised of players with Soto's current numbers is a lineup good enough to contend.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=194371 time=1748973634 user_id=68]
Check out his splits. Nimmo's OPS is almost 150 points higher on the road. Citi Field ranks as about the most extreme pitcher's Park in baseball for offense, hits and homers. Citi Field is even tougher on hitters in April and May, when hard hit balls simply die in the outfield. It's colder at Citi Field than most anywhere else in the five boroughs until the Summer warm weather arrives.



Maybe thats part of why the Mets sucked last year until about Memorial Day. Maybe that's why Soto started so slowly.

[Centerfield]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=194371 time=1748973634 user_id=68]
Check out his splits. Nimmo's OPS is almost 150 points higher on the road. Citi Field ranks as about the most extreme pitcher's Park in baseball for offense, hits and homers. Citi Field is even tougher on hitters in April and May, when hard hit balls simply die in the outfield. It's colder at Citi Field than most anywhere else in the five boroughs until the Summer warm weather arrives.



Maybe thats part of why the Mets sucked last year until about Memorial Day. Maybe that's why Soto started so slowly.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Centerfield post_id=194375 time=1748975527 user_id=65]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=194371 time=1748973634 user_id=68]
Check out his splits. Nimmo's OPS is almost 150 points higher on the road. Citi Field ranks as about the most extreme pitcher's Park in baseball for offense, hits and homers. Citi Field is even tougher on hitters in April and May, when hard hit balls simply die in the outfield. It's colder at Citi Field than most anywhere else in the five boroughs until the Summer warm weather arrives.



Maybe thats part of why the Mets sucked last year until about Memorial Day. Maybe that's why Soto started so slowly.

[Frayed Knot]

fwiw, Nimmo's explanation, going back to early '24, was that he sensed pitchers starting to get wise to his discriminating eye and had curtailed feeding him stuff off the corners hoping that he'd fish for it. iow it wasn't necessarily a top-down organizational dictate, nor something specifically related to his spot in the order. He just figured that if they were going to feed him more strikes then he needed to swing the bat more, which is more and less a continuation of the trend of his entire career starting from early on when he was often selective to a fault (too many close, called third strikes) towards becoming more aggressive as he's aged.



His walk rate has been trending downward for several years now. From his 'Isolated BB-rate' [OBA - BA] of around 130 pts from '17 thru '21 (about double league average) to a down-but-still-good low 90s since, it's not a skill he's lost but it probably isn't one he can get back to where it was five+ years ago simply by deciding to. The more current problem is that his BA has dropped some 40 & 50 points last season and this one: now .224 & .232, down from the 270s in '22 & '23. Combine that with a lower walk rate and the lost OPS/OPS+ points start to drift away. His walk rate so far this year is right around lg avg which may be the result of a small sample size or maybe not.