On Track

[roger_that]

At their current rate, the Mets will go 102-60. (Or a little better, but that's how it rounds off.)



Realistic? You tell me.

[batmagadanleadoff]

You tell me.

If you're gonna order us around, which you always do, you need to say "Simon sez".



You didn't say "Simon Sez".



The rest of this post is even dumber than the driving school in the Bronx post.

[Lefty Specialist]

=roger_that post_id=189975 time=1745010548 user_id=128]
At their current rate, the Mets will go 102-60. (Or a little better, but that's how it rounds off.)



Realistic? You tell me.

[batmagadanleadoff]

At their current rate, the Mets will go 102-60. (Or a little better, but that's how it rounds off.) Realistic? You tell me.

On track? The Mets are winning 63.1% of their games. If they continue to win 63.1% of their games, and get to play 162 games, they will finish with a 102-60 record. So yes, the Mets are on track to win 63.1% of their games. By the same logic, Aaron Judge is on track to bat .400. Tyler Soderstrom is on track to hit 77 HRs this season. The Padres are on track to win 128 regular season games. And I'm on track to eat lasagna every single day for the rest of my life, having eaten lasagna for dinner last night.



But please check out this year's crop of NFL prospects for further proof.



https://phpbb3.leaptoad.com/mets/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=34337https://phpbb3.leaptoad.com/mets/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=34337

[Bob Alpacadaca]

I don't think 102 wins is out of reach for this team. McNeil, Alvarez and Manaea will be back soon. A lot of things will need to break right, but it's definitely possible!

[batmagadanleadoff]

Well, that's the other issue. What does the OP mean by "realistic"? Possible? Plausible? Likely? What?

[roger_that]

OK, now we're on track for slightly better than 105 wins (13-7 = .650 = 105-57), which I think is pushing plausibility, still within possibility, not terribly likely, but within the bounds of conceivability if no one else gets seriously hurt and Manaea, McNeil, and Alvarez come back strong.



Manaea can fill a slot in the rotation easy, of course, and you just put Alvarez behind the plate and send Senger to AAA, but what do you do with McNeil? Specifically what do you do with Acuna and Baty? The conventional thinking is that one of them, most likely Baty, goes to AAA, but I don't know. I'd try to find a way to keep all three at the MLB level, and go one pitcher short or maybe go with Taylor in CF and send Siri (or Azocar if Siri's not back) down to AAA. They've got two OFers playing DH, and McNeil can spell Taylor in center if need be.



Of course, someone will most likely get hurt between now and McNeil's return, but that's my thinking. This business of having only one available backup infielder seems not to be a great long-term strategy--when Vientos went out today, we really had to hope we wouldn't need to put Torrens or whoever in if one other infielder got hurt. Eventually having only one backup infielder is going to cost the Mets a game, in my opinion.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=roger_that post_id=190121 time=1745106269 user_id=128]
OK, now we're on track for slightly better than 105 wins (13-7 = .650 = 105-57)

[roger_that]

Pete is still on track to threaten, but not to break, Hack Wilson's RBI record. At this pace, he's going to drive in over 186 runs on the season. He's only going to hit 48 lousy HRs though (48.6, to get technical).

[roger_that]

This is a good point to project starting pitching, since all five starters have gotten 4 starts apiece to date.



Good news for Senga is he's on track to go 24-8, with 6.5 WAR, an 0.79 ERA and probably a Cy Young Award.



Bad news for Peterson is he's on track for an 8-8 year despite a 3.27 ERA in 32 starts.



Probably split the difference? I'll take that.



Megill has a decision in every start so far, making him 16-16 on the year.

[roger_that]

Current winning percentage is .68181818181818etc., which works out to about 110 and 1/2 wins.



I'm enjoying this while it lasts.

[Cowtipper]

Their current ERA of about 2.30 is unsustainable and will soon regress to the mean.



Their low average is much more likely to stick than their low ERA as a .225 team is not unheard of in this game, but even a sub-3 ERA is, so a bump in BA is not guaranteed and likely won't compensate for the inevitable rise of the ERA.



Plus, they haven't yet had their traditional slew of injuries yet, which is due to happen eventually.



So they're still probably a low-90s win team.

[roger_that]

To be sure. The offense will improve and the defense deteriorate. Both are unsustainable.



The stat to consider offensively is not BA, which has become less important lately, but OPS. The Mets' OPS is about .700 (OPS+ is just about league average .100). Last season's OPS/OPS+ was .734/108, and I'd say this year's model, by adding Soto, is probably a bit better than that.



By driving in only one crummy run today, Pete falls further behind Hack Wilson's pace. At this rate, he'll drive in just under 177 runs for the season.

[roger_that]

While the team improves to a new projected high of 113-49 (112.7, actually), Pete continues to slump, reducing his projected RBI to a mere 169.

[roger_that]

We've been lucky so far, of course, but not according to Pythagorus: the Mets' Pythagorean record is just about precisely (.008 off, in the "lucky" direction) their actual W/L record.

[roger_that]

Tonight's win over the Phillies pushes us past the .700 mark (.708) and on track for nearly 115 wins (114.75).



With only one crummy RBI, though, Pete falls even further from Hack Wilson's pace--he's down to 168 on the year at this pace.

[Cowtipper]

Magic number is now down to 135!

[roger_that]

Yet another lousy single-RBI game for Alonso (albeit a well-timed one) reduces his RBI pace for the season to 168.



The Mets meanwhile, in reaching an 18-7 mark, push their expected wins (at this rate, of course) above 116.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

It took us until August last year to get 10 games over .500.

[roger_that]

Now to those who persist in seeing the Mets as a low 90s-win team this year, and I can't show them wrong yet, nor would I try, the implication is that from here on in, they're going to go 75-62 or so, a .547 clip (which when combined with 18-7 comes out to a 93-69 record.) Which means to expect some disappointing stretches out ahead.



We're not through a sixth of the season yet, so anything is possible.



Lindor, btw, is now on track to drive in over 90 runs.



The really encouraging thing is that Soto hasn't begun to unload yet, and he's as sure as anyone to end the year with an over-.900 OPS. (He's cleared it in 6 out of his 7 big league seasons).Thus far he's only around .760, which implies that we should see some vastly improved hitting soon. And Vientos hasn't gotten on track yet.



So even when Pete cools off, and the bullpen returns to its level, we should be scoring more runs than we have so far.



For the Mets to crack 100 wins, which seemed like a grandiose dream a few weeks ago, they'll "only" need to go 82-55 for the remainder of the season, or .599, which now looks like a pretty reasonable goal.

[MFS62]

No matter what the math says, whatever mojo this thread has conjured up, it seems to be working. (like wearing that lucky cap when the team is winning)

Keep it going.



Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

For the Mets to crack 100 wins, which seemed like a grandiose dream a few weeks ago, they'll "only" need to go 82-55 for the remainder of the season, or .599, which now looks like a pretty reasonable goal.

It's always the case -- and I do mean always -- that the baseball team with the best record after 25 games played is on pace to win 110 games or so. At least. I'll check into this thread in about an hour or so to see if the Mets are on track to win more games than they were on pace to win an hour ago. Lefty, Lefty, Lefty.

[roger_that]

[FIMG][bIGPURPLE][/bIGPURPLE][/FIMG]=MFS62 post_id=190615 time=1745450805 user_id=60]
No matter what the math says, whatever mojo this thread has conjured up, it seems to be working. (like wearing that lucky cap when the team is winning)

Keep it going.



Later

[whippoorwill]

It's a cool thread

[roger_that]

Thanks for the encouragement.



Alonso is a doubles-machine so far, on track to break the record for doubles in a season. At his current pace, he's on track to hit over 71 doubles. I think the record is in the 60s.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=roger_that post_id=190645 time=1745502578 user_id=128]


Alonso is a doubles-machine so far, on track to break the record for doubles in a season. At his current pace, he's on track to hit over 71 doubles. I think the record is in the 60s.

[roger_that]

Meanwhile, Lindor has pushed himself (permanently?) over the .300 mark for the season. He's also on track to hit over 32 HRs on the year, which is eminently reasonable.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=roger_that post_id=190649 time=1745503679 user_id=128]
Meanwhile, Lindor has pushed himself (permanently?) over the .300 mark for the season. He's also on track to hit over 32 HRs on the year, which is eminently reasonable.

[kcmets]

Alonso is a doubles-machine so far, on track to break the record for doubles in a season. At his current pace, he's on track to hit over 71 doubles. I think the record is in the 60s.

I had a feeling this was a little off, so I looked it up...



https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/mlb-player-most-doubles-in-a-seasonEarl Webb has the most doubles in a season, with

67 doubles in 1931

[Edgy MD]

Earl Webb is the fuckin' man.



[fimg=500]https://rmyauctions.com/images_items/item_47713_1_97855.jpg[/fimg]