Who do you want back, and who should go?

[metsmarathon]

Jose Quintana no

Pete Alonso yes, but within reason. meaning, less than freddy freeman money

Sean Manaea yes, 3 year deal

Luis Severino likely no, but QO

J.D. Martinez no

Harrison Bader sure, if he'll stay

Phil Maton yes

Adam Ottavino no

Ryne Stanek maybe, but i'd rather have maton

Drew Smith no

Jesse Winker maybe, but i'd rather have bader



i like the defensive upside of bader for the outfield. i like winker a lot, but i do worry that he'll wear thin over a full year. and if we get soto, we won't need either of 'em.



stanek pitches like his hair is on fire, but on the whole i trust maton more.



i'm also on team trade mcsquirrel. it's a bit of a risk since we have so many relatively unproven youngsters on infield, but if you can get something really useful back for him, i'd pull the trigger.



I'm very curious what'll happen with iglesias. he'll get a job somewhere if it isn't here, but i don't know that he gets the full time gig that he'd be looking for. maybe on a second division team. on this team, he can be a near-regular super utility player, and regular mentor for the kids. I hope he can see that as worth his while. I do think we got the best year out of him that he's ever going to give, but i like the approach he brings to the game.

[metirish]

Am I missing something with Maton ? I thought he was awful, yet many here like him



Genuine question

[Cowtipper]

Metrics are cute, but a closer's job is to save victories, and blowing the 4th-most saves is losing victories. All sorts of mental gymnastics can be made to make him look good, but when you distill it down, he is not a good closer. A closer's job is to close. If a save is blown, closing did not happen. Diaz has been among the most proficient at making sure closing does not happen. Which means he is bad at his job and should be removed from his job.



If FIP is what you're interested in, then make him a middle reliever. Not a closer.

[MFS62]

^ This.

Peripheral numbers are nice, but his job is to close.

I just don't know enough about who is out there to replace him.

Later

[Centerfield]

=Cowtipper post_id=177278 time=1729605761 user_id=166]
Metrics are cute, but a closer's job is to save victories, and blowing the 4th-most saves is losing victories. All sorts of mental gymnastics can be made to make him look good, but when you distill it down, he is not a good closer. A closer's job is to close. If a save is blown, closing did not happen. Diaz has been among the most proficient at making sure closing does not happen. Which means he is bad at his job and should be removed from his job.



If FIP is what you're interested in, then make him a middle reliever. Not a closer.

[Cowtipper]

=Cowtipper post_id=177273 time=1729601019 user_id=166]
The Cult of Diaz is insanely strong.

[MFS62]

=Centerfield post_id=177292 time=1729616628 user_id=65]
Considering the Mets system has developed exactly one relief pitcher (Familia) in its entire history that can be compared to Diaz,

[batmagadanleadoff]

Jeff Reardon, too. And the Mets didn't draft Jesse Orosco, but they definitely developed him. Randy Myers was very effective for a few years. Tug McGraw?

[ashie62]

I would prefer Jeff McNeil be traded but I seriously doubt that will happen



It's really hard to sign effective relievers so I would sigh Stanek and Maton. I'm not in love with Maton, but still



I'd like them to sign at least one of the starters, Severino would be my preference



The OF and DH types are flotsam and jetsom to be moved on from

[MFS62]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=177297 time=1729618535 user_id=68]
Jeff Reardon, too. And the Mets didn't draft Jesse Orosco, but they definitely developed him. Randy Myers was very effective for a few years. Tug McGraw?

[Edgy MD]

Maton doesn't necessarily need to be signed. The Mets hold an option on him.



I disagree that it's really hard to sign effective relievers, so much as it is hard for relievers to maintain a consistent level of effectiveness from year to year — especially ones who have been around long enough to reach free agency.



But yeah, the Mets have developed some terrific relievers. They haven't always stuck around, but Jason Isringhausen had 300 saves.



It's just the nature of relieving that for many of the best arms, relieving is their second act. Sometimes, you don't catch on as a starter when you come up and transition to relieving with your next team. Isringhausen, Berenguer, and Dotel, among others fall into this category. The question is whether you're willing to stay with an arm through that transition. In a different world, the label on José Butto might be "failed starter," traded to the Cardinals this offseason for a player-to-be-named-later. Instead, they've taken a different tack, and he may well develop into somebody terrific out of the pen.

[Lefty Specialist]

Yeah, I'd stick with Butto. i like his arm. He has potential to be that bridge to the closer they need.

[Centerfield]

I wouldn't label Butto as a failed starter in any world.



7 starts, 38 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.132 WHIP.



I'd say he did pretty well starting, but needs to show it's sustainable.

[Edgy MD]

Those aren't https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=buttojo01&year=Career&t=pthe splits I have.

[th]Role[/th]	[th]W[/th]	[th]L[/th]	[th]W-L%[/th]	[th]ERA[/th]	[th]G[/th]	[th]GS[/th]	[th]GF[/th]	[th]SV[/th]	[th]IP[/th]	[th]H[/th]	[th]R[/th]	[th]ER[/th]	[th]HR[/th]	[th]BB[/th]	[th]SO[/th]	[th]HBP[/th]	[th]BK[/th]	[th]WP[/th]	[th]BF[/th]	[th]WHIP[/th]	[th]H/9[/th]	[th]HR/9[/th]	[th]BB/9[/th]	[th]SO9[/th]	[th]SO/W[/th]
	as Starter		2		6		.250		3.76		15		15		0		0		79.0		61		33		33		8		42		74		4		0		1		336		1.304		6.9		0.9		4.8		8.4		1.76
	as Reliever		6		1		.857		2.63		25		0		5		3		41.0		22		12		12		3		21		48		1		1		1		160		1.049		4.8		0.7		4.6		10.5		2.29
	Total		8		7		.533		3.375		40		15		5		3		120.0		83		45		45		11		63		122		5		1		2		496		1.216		6.2		0.8		4.7		9.2		1.94

But you're certainly right in that that isn't the profile of a failed starter, so much as a starter who hasn't caught on as yet. I withdraw the characterization. They could even return to trying to establish him in the rotation, but I'm almost certain that they won't.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't expect they will either, but I suppose it depends on how the roster shapes up over the next five months.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Putting aside the "closer" role, why is it that some pitchers are relievers instead of starters? Is it mainly a matter of talent -- that it takes more talent to be a starter than a reliever? Or is it mainly an issue of stamina --- and that relievers can't pitch as many innings as starters --- the way some track and field athletes can run a great 40 yard dash but would never be able to compete in a mile race, or a marathon?

[Edgy MD]

Stamina is certainly one characteristic that supposedly tracks you into the starter or relief role. Another is diversity of offerings. There are plenty of starters who made good with two pitches (Seaver [mostly], Ryan [totally], deGrom [mostly], and Glavine, among others), but when development staffs are sorting them out in the minors, if you have one or two effective pitches they typically send you to the bullpen, and if you have three or four, they tend let you start.



I tend to think, at the major league level, it's all luck. If there's an opening in the rotation, and you have one or two good starts, you get pigenholed as a starter. If there isn't, but there's a need in the bullpen, and you flourish there, good luck getting a chance to start.



If you've started all through the minors, but you have the bad luck to not succeed immediately as a starter, and whoever you were subbing for returns from his injury, and you hang around the pen and get a few big outs, great, but you might as well tattoo "CAN ONLY RELIEVE" onto your forehead.



It's unfortunate, but it's the nature of tracking.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Those aren't https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=buttojo01&year=Career&t=pthe splits I have. [th]Role[/th] [th]W[/th] [th]L[/th] [th]W-L%[/th] [th]ERA[/th] [th]G[/th] [th]GS[/th] [th]GF[/th] [th]SV[/th] [th]IP[/th] [th]H[/th] [th]R[/th] [th]ER[/th] [th]HR[/th] [th]BB[/th] [th]SO[/th] [th]HBP[/th] [th]BK[/th] [th]WP[/th] [th]BF[/th] [th]WHIP[/th] [th]H/9[/th] [th]HR/9[/th] [th]BB/9[/th] [th]SO9[/th] [th]SO/W[/th] as Starter 2 6 .250 3.76 15 15 0 0 79.0 61 33 33 8 42 74 4 0 1 336 1.304 6.9 0.9 4.8 8.4 1.76 as Reliever 6 1 .857 2.63 25 0 5 3 41.0 22 12 12 3 21 48 1 1 1 160 1.049 4.8 0.7 4.6 10.5 2.29 Total 8 7 .533 3.375 40 15 5 3 120.0 83 45 45 11 63 122 5 1 2 496 1.216 6.2 0.8 4.7 9.2 1.94

But you're certainly right in that that isn't the profile of a failed starter, so much as a starter who hasn't caught on as yet. I withdraw the characterization. They could even return to trying to establish him in the rotation, but I'm almost certain that they won't.


The splits I posted were for 2024 only. Maybe your's are career numbers?



I'm not so convinced the Mets won't allow him to start. He was good out of the pen, but he doesn't recover fast, so his use is somewhat limited. Is there an opposite of a rubber arm guy? Also, starters are more valuable than relievers. Maybe in generations past Butto would now be pigeonholed as a reliever. I think this regime will explore how best to use him.



Assuming we sign two starters to pair with Peterson and Senga, I fully expect Butto to be in the mix for 5th Starter, along with Megill and whatever reclamation projects we pick up.

[Cowtipper]

With all the very good prospects coming up, I think we can find new homes for Jeff McNeil and Brett Baty will no real ill effect. Say adios to Bader, too, as he was absolutely useless offensively for what seemed like 2/3 of the season. Say adios to Martinez as he played like he was just in New York to collect another paycheck.



Alonso is a tough one. I'd hate to lose a guy who can contribute 34 home runs and 88 RBI in his prime, but he is going to want a fat contract and a long-term deal, so inevitably some team is going to be left holding the bag on him and I don't want it to be the Mets. He does not profile as the sort of guy who will be consistently useful at age 34-35-36. If the Mets can finagle a three, maybe four-year deal out of him, maybe give him a shot. But anything else and I'd say no. It would be tough to say goodbye, but he wouldn't be worth a long-term deal in the long run.



Bring back Iglesias and Taylor. Both excellent sparkplugs and great surprises. Ditch Vogelbach 2.0, DJ Stewart. Bring back Torrens—he faded offensively, but was still a good guy to have around. If Winker is okay being in a reserve role, I'd say bring him back, but if not, he should go.



Pablo Reyes, Eddy Alvarez and Joe Hudson are all still in the Mets system. I'd say bring back Reyes and Alvarez, but get rid of Hudson. He was too bad at Triple-A to legitimize keeping around.*



*EDIT: Apparently they all refused their minor league assignments and are now free agents. So, bring Alvarez and Reyes back, at least.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: Stamina is certainly one characteristic that supposedly tracks you into the starter or relief role. Another is diversity of offerings. There are plenty of starters who made good with two pitches (Seaver [mostly], Ryan [totally], deGrom [mostly], and Glavine, among others), but when development staffs are sorting them out in the minors, if you have one or two effective pitches they typically send you to the bullpen, and if you have three or four, they tend let you start.

This ^.

Later