The Odds are not so odd anymore.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=171040 time=1726808349 user_id=68]
Mets ESPN playoff odds are only 8% better than the Braves, even though they're two games up on the Braves with just nine games left to play.





Padres 87-66 (+2) (99.5%)

Mets 85-68 (--) (63.3%)

DBacks 85-68 (--) (82.0%)

Braves 83-70 (-2) (55.2%)



The DBacks are given an almost 20% better chance of making the playoffs than the Mets even though the two teams have identical records and the Mets hold the tiebreaker advantage over the DBacks.



Must be that looming head-to-head series with the Braves, right? (But the DBacks and Padres end their seasons playing each other). Or that the Mets finish the season with a tough schedule, at least on paper, playing three playoff contenders.

[Lefty Specialist]

Those 3 games in Atlanta are basically the season. I'll look at the odds after that.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Those 3 games in Atlanta are basically the season. I'll look at the odds after that.

Yeah, but more so for the Braves than for the Mets.

[Lefty Specialist]

I've been scarred by too many late-season collapses to look at the odds until they're 3 ahead of the Braves with 2 to play.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=171255 time=1726979488 user_id=68]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=171040 time=1726808349 user_id=68]
Mets ESPN playoff odds are only 8% better than the Braves, even though they're two games up on the Braves with just nine games left to play.





Padres 87-66 (+2) (99.5%)

Mets 85-68 (--) (63.3%)

DBacks 85-68 (--) (82.0%)

Braves 83-70 (-2) (55.2%)



The DBacks are given an almost 20% better chance of making the playoffs than the Mets even though the two teams have identical records and the Mets hold the tiebreaker advantage over the DBacks.



Must be that looming head-to-head series with the Braves, right? (But the DBacks and Padres end their seasons playing each other). Or that the Mets finish the season with a tough schedule, at least on paper, playing three playoff contenders.

[RealityChuck]

Because the "odds" are not mathematical odds. They are the results of a simulation. Garbage in, garbage out.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Because the "odds" are not mathematical odds. They are the results of a simulation. Garbage in, garbage out.

This is what I thought. But I figured that they must have simulated the rest of the season like a million times to arrive at their odds. I'm guessing that what's going on is that their model has the Braves as being a slightly better team than the Mets and winning the Mets/Braves series more often than the Mets in their simulations.

[Edgy MD]

It's ESPN. ESPN isn't so much a journalism outlet, but a brand. And now they've got a sports book affiliated with that brand, so I wouldn't make too much of odds from there, as it's in their interest to queer the method by which they arrive at those odds.



Not saying these odds are necessarily influenced by the gambly-gambly side of ESPN, but I don't trust 'em.



Apart from the day-to-day record, internal personnel things can be moving the needle — the return of Albies, the apparent setback of Senga, the Mets using Diaz for four innings over two days, the Braves scheduling Fried over Morton against the Mets — but that's just speculation.

[kcmets]

Lefty Specialist wrote: I've been scarred by too many late-season collapses to look at the odds until they're 3 ahead of the Braves with 2 to play.

Yeah, I mean not to be a Doubtin' Deborah Downergal but would

anyone be super surprised if the Braves swept this series?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Of course not. That's why we're heading into this series with this feeling of suspense.

[Edgy MD]

Of course, I'd totally blame kcmets if that's what goes down.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

The pressure to win tonight will be insanely intense. It's a Really Big Game ®

[Centerfield]

Nightmare scenario.



Lose the first two. Get rained out. End up tied after the Brewers series. Go back down to Atlanta and lose one more.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Mets and Braves ESPN odds to make the playoffs are now practically even after the Braves took the opener of their three game series. Mets (78.0%), Braves (69.2%). Probably because the Braves need just a split of the remaining two games to secure the tiebreaker and Sale likely to pitch one of those two games. Let's see what kind of havoc the Hurricane weather wreaks on the rest of the series.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=171722 time=1727271469 user_id=68]
Mets and Braves ESPN odds to make the playoffs are now practically even after the Braves took the opener of their three game series. Mets (78.0%), Braves (69.2%). Probably because the Braves need just a split of the remaining two games to secure the tiebreaker and Sale likely to pitch one of those two games. Let's see what kind of havoc the Hurricane weather wreaks on the rest of the series.

[batmagadanleadoff]

ESPN odds now has the Braves as the odd team out. Their odds to make the playoffs dropped by about 10% even though both the Mets and Braves didn't play yesterday. The Mets odds stayed the same.

[rchurch314]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=171875 time=1727372707 user_id=68]
ESPN odds now has the Braves as the odd team out. Their odds to make the playoffs dropped by about 10% even though both the Mets and Braves didn't play yesterday. The Mets odds stayed the same.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, FanGraphs odds have always smelled the best to me.

[kcmets]

Postseason Probability

Morning of September 26th



DET 93.4%

KCR 85.0%

NYM 76.2%

ARI 73.4%

ATL 50.4%



-- baseball-reference.com

[Edgy MD]

I tried to put together a table to get all the numbers in one place, and it looks like ESPN (who I expressed doubt in) and FanGraphs (who I endorsed) are working with the same math.



Shows how much I know.

[/TR]
[/TR]
[/TR]
[/TR]

[th]TEAM[/TH]	[TH]ESPN[/TH]	[TH]BB-REF[/TH]	[TH]FANGRAPHS[/TH]	[TH]AVERAGE[/TH]
[th]NYM[/TH]	[TD]77.8%[/TD]	[TD]76.2%[/TD]	[TD]77.8%[/TD]	[TD]77.3%[/TD]
[th]ARI[/TH]	[TD]60.5%[/TD]	[TD]73.4%[/TD]	[TD]60.5%[/TD]	[TD]64.8%[/TD]
[th]ATL[/TH]	[TD]61.6%[/TD]	[TD]50.4%[/TD]	[TD]61.6%[/TD]	[TD]57.9%[/TD]

[rchurch314]

well, ESPN doesn't EXPLAIN where I can see, where this stuff comes from. Par for the course with them of course. I wonder if they're flat out stealing it. Even if they duplicated effort, randomness might have it slightly different.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=rchurch314 post_id=171885 time=1727381195 user_id=195]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=171875 time=1727372707 user_id=68]
ESPN odds now has the Braves as the odd team out. Their odds to make the playoffs dropped by about 10% even though both the Mets and Braves didn't play yesterday. The Mets odds stayed the same.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Braves 87-71 (--) (85.6%)

Mets 87-71 (--) (57.3%)

DBacks 88-72 (--) (57.1%)



The Braves are heavy favorites to make the playoffs, among the three teams battling for the last two NL spots. Makes sense as they hold tiebreakers over both the Mets and the DBacks, and so, for all practical purposes, are a half a game ahead of both teams even though they are all tied in the standings.



The Mets and DBacks are essentially even, odd-wise, to make the playoffs -- the Mets only slightly ahead of the DBAcks even though they hold the tiebreaker there.



What I can't figure out at all, is how all three teams could be given a better than 50% of making the playoffs when this is now a game of musical chairs and when the music's over, one team is guaranteed to be left on the outside, looking in.



OE-- I guess it's possible. Because two of the three teams will qualify, the combined odds for all three teams should add up to 200%. But it doesn't seem right at first blush, even though it is.

[rchurch314]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=172092 time=1727512783 user_id=68]
=rchurch314 post_id=171885 time=1727381195 user_id=195]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=171875 time=1727372707 user_id=68]
ESPN odds now has the Braves as the odd team out. Their odds to make the playoffs dropped by about 10% even though both the Mets and Braves didn't play yesterday. The Mets odds stayed the same.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Who knows. It's more of a toy, as far as I'm concerned. I assume everybody else thinks the same.



ESPN's odds also has the Brewers as favorites to win tonight's (Saturday) game 57.5% to 42.5%. Also ESPN's opening betting money line has the Brewers at (-125) -- that is, if you're betting the Brewers, you must bet $125.00 to win $100.00.

[batmagadanleadoff]

ESPN odds updated with one day left in the regular season:





Braves >99.9%

Mets 52.1%

DBacks 47.9%



That's odd. The DBacks odds went up by 10% with their loss tonight to the Padres.



The tiebreaker favors the Mets -- but the DBacks play at home, for whatever that's worth.

[Chad ochoseis]

The Braves miss the playoffs if:



- they lose to the Royals, a playoff team, tomorrow and



- the Diamondbacks, a slumping but good team, win tomorrow and



- the Mets sweep them on Monday.



It's not a likely scenario, but I'd bet on it if you gave me 1000-1 odds.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Chad ochoseis wrote: The Braves miss the playoffs if: - they lose to the Royals, a playoff team, tomorrow and - the Diamondbacks, a slumping but good team, win tomorrow and - the Mets sweep them on Monday. It's not a likely scenario, but I'd bet on it if you gave me 1000-1 odds.

Isn't it easier to just root for the DBacks to lose tomorrow? Then the Mets would have to win just once to clinch a spot. And they'd get three chances to win just that one game. Not that my rooting would have any effect on anything.

Edited September 28, 2024 by Guest

[Chad ochoseis]

Oh, yeah. I'm a yuge Padres fan until tomorrow. I was pointing out the ridiculousness of the >99.9% probability for the Braves.



For them to miss the playoffs, they need 4 outcomes to go against them. If each game was purely 50-50, there would be a 6.25% chance of that happening. Each game isn't 50-50, of course, but they're not far enough from 50-50 to turn that 6.25% into < 0.1%.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'd prefer to treat each game as a 50-50 coin flip. It's easier and not so far-fetched. Plus. I don't go for those junk-science narratives about some teams wanting it more than others or clutching up to meet the moment or teams having nothing left to play for -- that's all nonsense. Besides, ESPN odds and all the other odds are estimates, let's not forget. So let's treat them as ballpark figures instead of mathematical certainties. Perhaps very educated estimates, but still estimates. Which we all know anyways, but sometimes, tend to forget momentarily in the heat and emotion of the discussion.