Reintroducing the NHOP!

[Willets Point]

We could have a First Wild Card party tonight.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets have six games remaining before their series in Atlanta, and the Braves have eight.



In the unlikely event that all fourteen games have Happy Outcomes, the Mets will begin the series eight games up with six remaining, and the series will be meaningless.



In the equally (I hope!) unlikely event that all fourteen games have Unhappy Outcomes, the Mets will be six games out and their backs will be against the wall.



So that's the range: From eight games up to six games out. The window will narrow each day, of course.





Also, if the Mets pitching rotation remains in place over the last twelve games, this is how it will play out:



In Oakland: Bassitt, deGrom, Scherzer.

At home vs. Miami: Carrasco, Walker.

In Atlanta: Bassitt, deGrom, Scherzer.

At home vs. Washington: Carrasco, Walker, Bassitt.



That would leave deGrom and Scherzer in rotation to start the first two games of the Wild Card series, if necessary. If the Mets advance directly to the NLDS, they'll have time to set the rotation however they'd like.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday:



Three Happy Outcomes: Losses by the Braves, Dodgers, and Cardinals.

Two Unhappy Outcomes: Mets lose and Padres win.





When the Mets get to Atlanta, they will be at best 7 games ahead, and at worst, 5 games behind, with 6 remaining.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Willets Point]

The Cardinals play the Padres so one of those magic numbers will go down by one tonight.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday, the Mets were idle, but we had two Happy Outcomes (losses by the Braves and Padres) and two Unhappy Outcomes (wins by the Cardinals and Dodgers.)



The Dodgers and Padres are both close to dropping off our chart. The Dodgers' Magic Number over the Mets is down to 3, and the next Padres loss or Mets win will cement the Mets as the First Wild Card, should they fail to win the division.



The loss by the Braves means that the Mets can still have the division clinched before they arrive in Atlanta, but to do so would require the Mets to win their next five AND for the Braves to lose their next six. Eleven Happy Outcomes in eleven games.



When the series against the Braves begins, the Mets will be somewhere between seven games up and four games behind in the standings.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Willets Point]

For maximum efficiency, the best results tonight are a Mets win, Padres win, Cardinals loss, and Braves loss. That would eliminate the Padres, reduce the Cardinals to 2, and take Atlanta to the single digits.

[Centerfield]

Putting aside Tie Breakers for a moment...



If the Mets go 7-4 over their last 11, they finish at 102-60.



To tie them, the Braves would have to go 9-3 over their last 12 to tie. I can see both of these happening.



If the Mets go 6-5 over their last 11, the Braves would need to go 8-4 to tie. Given that the Braves has 6 games remaining against the Nats and Marlins, 8-4 seems almost a given.



I think this weekend's series represents the last chance for the Mets to get some separation. Go Phils!

[Fman99]

Putting aside Tie Breakers for a moment... If the Mets go 7-4 over their last 11, they finish at 102-60. To tie them, the Braves would have to go 9-3 over their last 12 to tie. I can see both of these happening. If the Mets go 6-5 over their last 11, the Braves would need to go 8-4 to tie. Given that the Braves has 6 games remaining against the Nats and Marlins, 8-4 seems almost a given. I think this weekend's series represents the last chance for the Mets to get some separation. Go Phils!

A tie, though, is loaded, because if even 1 of those wins is Mets over Braves, then the Mets win the season series. So the Mets could go 6-5 including losing 2 of 3 to ATL and the Braves would actually have to 9-3 to "beat" them, by virtue of the tiebreaker.

[MFS62]

The real places where all the action is are the sports betting sites.

They must be going nuts with all the betting possibilities and the daily changing odds.



Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

=Centerfield post_id=108385 time=1663951124 user_id=65]
I think this weekend's series represents the last chance for the Mets to get some separation. Go Phils!

[Gwreck]

We could add some AL teams to this chart for purposes of potential tiebreaks for home field advantage.



Mets are:



4 games behind Houston (5 because of a loss in the season series)



3 games ahead of NYY (season series split; Mets up +4.5 in second tiebreak, intradivison record)



10.5 games ahead of TOR (Magic number is 3)



CLE, SEA, TB, BAL, CWS cannot finish with a better record than the Mets.

[Willets Point]

A big SMILE for all the Happy Outcomes tonight.



https://64.media.tumblr.com/89baaa9d330141031d8c0a5f0ec56276/88666b85afb93874-1e/s540x810/4dba60fb7f3f4cc5e246b3985ac3878b5716fe8c.jpg>

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday was a very good one for Happy Outcomes, with four: Mets win, Braves, Padres, Dodgers lose. The only Unhappy Outcome was a win by the Cardinals.



The Padres now drop off our chart, as their Magic Number has been reached and they can no longer finish with a better record than the Mets. This ensures that if the Mets end up in the Wild Card round, they will have home-field advantage and will play the [CROSSOUT]lowest-ranked opponent[/CROSSOUT] second Wild Card team.



When the Mets' series in Atlanta begins on Friday, the Mets will be somewhere between seven games ahead of the Braves and two games behind, with six games remaining.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Fman99]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Yesterday was a very good one for Happy Outcomes, with four: Mets win, Braves, Padres, Dodgers lose. The only Unhappy Outcome was a win by the Cardinals. The Padres now drop off our chart, as their Magic Number has been reached and they can no longer finish with a better record than the Mets. This ensures that if the Mets end up in the Wild Card round, they will have home-field advantage and will play the lowest-ranked opponent.

I get that the Mets have clinched the top wild card, but doesn't that make them, at best, the 4 seed? Isn't the NL Central winner automatically the 3 seed by virtue of winning their division and wouldn't they get to play the 6 seed, last in wild card?

[Benjamin Grimm]

You're right... NL Central winner (most likely) will play the sixth seed, and the fourth plays the fifth.



My bad.

[Benjamin Grimm]

There are still a lot of different ways that this can play out. I think I have this right, but please correct me if you see any omissions or errors.



The Rays and the Blue Jays currently have the same won-lost record, but the Rays have the tie-breaker advantage.



The Red Sox can tie the Rays or the Blue Jays, but they lost the season series to both teams, so the best they can do is the third Wild Card. The Twins have the same record as the Red Sox, but they won the season series against the Rays and the Jays, so they can, in theory, finish ahead of either or both teams.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Only one Happy Outcome yesterday, a loss by the Cardinals. Three Unhappy Outcomes: Mets lost, Braves and Dodgers won.



The Dodgers' Magic Number over the Mets is down to 1. If the Mets win all of their remaining games, and the Dodgers lose all of their games, the two teams will have the same record and the Mets will get the edge because of the tiebreaker.



When the Mets arrive in Atlanta on Friday to play the Braves, they will be somewhere between five games ahead and two games behind, with six games remaining. The combination of the Mets losing yesterday and the Braves winning ensures that neither team will have the division title wrapped up beforehand.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday, the Mets won (Happy Outcome) but the Braves did too. (Unhappy Outcome).



The Cardinals-Dodgers game produced both a Happy and Unhappy Outcome. By winning, the Dodgers eliminate the Mets from contention for the top playoff seed, but by losing, Cardinals can no longer get the second seed. If the Mets win the division, they are now guaranteed to be able to skip the Wild Card round. Both teams now drop off our chart, meaning that going forward, it's only about the Braves.



On Friday, when the Mets series in Atlanta is about to begin, the Mets will be somewhere between four games ahead of the Braves and one game behind.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Gwreck]

The Guardians, having clinched the AL Central, can no longer be a wild card team.



Guardians can only be the #3 seed (unless they win out and the other New York team loses out).

[Benjamin Grimm]

Corrected, thanks.

[Willets Point]

So basically the Mets can be seed #2 or seed #4.

[Gwreck]

Not just “basically;” those are the only two possible seeings.



As #4, if they win the WC series (likely against the Padres), they face the Dodgers in the DS.



As #2, they would face the Cardinals/Phillies (or Brewers) winner in the DS.

[Fman99]

=Gwreck post_id=108688 time=1664205239 user_id=56]
Not just “basically;” those are the only two possible seeings.



As #4, if they win the WC series (likely against the Padres), they face the Dodgers in the DS.



As #2, they would face the Cardinals/Phillies (or Brewers) winner in the DS.

[Willets Point]

=Gwreck post_id=108688 time=1664205239 user_id=56]
Not just “basically;” those are the only two possible seeings.

[Fman99]

So by another measure, if the Mets go 6-2, then they'd win the NL East, as that'd imply that they also took at least 1 from ATL (since they only have five games against MIA and WAS), and would have the tiebreaker edge over them via the season series record, even if the Braves go 8-1 in that same span, as they'd finish with identical 103-59 records.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Only one outcome yesterday, and it was an unhappy one, as the Braves beat the Nationals.



When the Mets series against Atlanta begins, they will be somewhere between three games ahead and one game behind the Braves.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Double Unhappiness tonight: Braves win, Mets lose. Magic Number is 8, with 7 games remaining.



Mets can still control their fate: If they take two of three from the Braves and three of four of the remaining games against Miami and Washington, they'll win the division.



If they only win one game in Atlanta (or wherever the games are played) they'll need some outside help; the Braves will have to lose one or more games against the Marlins and Nationals.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Willets Point]

Make it easy on us and win 7 straight to end the season.

[Gwreck]

It strikes me as odd to see the NHOP above .500 when the teams are tied in the standings.



The Mets and Braves could each go 4-3 down the stretch, remain tied at the end of the season, but if the Mets have won 1 of the 3 games in Atlanta, they get the tiebreaker and the division.



Example:

Mets win Wed vs MIA

Mets win Fri at ATL

Mets lose Sat at ATL

Mets lose Sun at ATL

Mets win 2 of 3 vs WAS

4 happy outcomes of 7.



Braves win Wed at WAS

Braves lose Fri vs NYM

Braves win Sat vs NYM

Braves win Sun vs NYM

Braves lose 2 of 3 at MIA

3 happy outcomes of 7.



Cumulative: 7 happy outcomes out of 14 (.500)



(Alternately, if we only count the Mets/Braves games as having only one “outcome,” then it's 6 happy outcomes of 11, which then is .546 — but then the outcomes aren't all created equal).

[Frayed Knot]

=Gwreck post_id=108869 time=1664338259 user_id=56]
It strikes me as odd to see the NHOP above .500 when the teams are tied in the standings.