Who gets traded first?

[whippoorwill]

There's a lowrie?

[kcmets]

Yup! © Makes $10 million this year and next.

[dgwphotography]

=seawolf17 post_id=16703 time=1564064756 user_id=91]
=dgwphotography post_id=16689 time=1564053050 user_id=78]
=kcmets post_id=15686 time=1562893257 user_id=53]
Took Noah; kinda hoping it's him, tiring of him and I'm sure he feels the same.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Buster Olney writes that teams are getting the impression Mets will trade Syndy.

If I wasn't absolutely convinced they'd somehow screw this up I'd say "go for it." I like Syndy as much as the next guy, maybe more, but a real team in the same situation would also be considering the same thing, and would probably do it.



Meanwhile, Ken sez:

I don't hate this idea one bit, except for the near certainty they'll screw it up

[Ceetar]

keep and extend both you can't replace them.

[Edgy MD]

Well, it's a challenge, but sure you can.

[Ceetar]

It'd be almost impossible to find someone as good.

[seawolf17]

Oh, you can replace them easily. Plenty of guys who would be happy to pitch for the major league minimum.

[Edgy MD]

It'd be almost impossible to find someone as good.

I hate trades, but the guy himself replaced R.A. Dickey after a Cy Young season (eventually, anyhow). Smart management finds good players, sometimes in the packages you traded players for. http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/BillJamesOnline.com currently has Syndergaard as the 43rd-ranked starting pitcher, behind such luminaries as Jake Odorizzi, Wade Miley, and Shane Bieber. That's hardly the last word, but I'm not sure how one gets from 43rd-best to "almost impossible to find someone as good."

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Interesting. Zack Wheels is 54

[Guest 41Forever]

Olney on ESPN radio today talking about the Mets, saying Syndergaard is likely to get traded in part because he will start to get expensive. Said the same thing about Diaz. About Brodie, he said, "He's a fantastic agent, has a great personality, everybody likes him. I thought he was a terrible hire at the time, and I've seen nothing to change my opinion." (If those aren't the exact words, they're pretty close.)



Said there is no chance Syndergaard goes to MFY, saying Houston or San Diego more likely, and Diaz a good fit to LA.



Take all with the needed grains of salt, of course.

[Ceetar]

Olney's a hack.





I don't think Bill James online is the #1 source for rankings though, especially lately. Sure, you can make smart moves or sign good players on their way up that you see potential in, but those are still probably longer shots than just keeping Syndergaard and Wheeler. fWAR has Syndergaard 20th and Wheeler 23rd. xFIP has Wheeler 24th and Thor 30th. similar for SIERA. Sure, there are some guys that have done better in smaller samples, maybe that pushes them to 40ish.



but still, There are a lot of pitchers. That basically puts them on the bubble for Ace level. It's clearly front line starter. You're just not replacing that easily, cheaply, or with high probability. They're 32 and 39th of 191 pitchers with at least 70 IP over the last two years. 17 and 19 if you raise the floor to 'qualified' meaning they mostly stayed on the mound and maintained that success. That's where the real crux is. Finding a guy that's been doing it reliability.



You can find guys that had really great second halves, or really thrived in their first 120 IP in the majors or whatever. But Wheeler and Syndergaard have extended that for longer than many. The error bars are smaller.



I mean, maybe the error bars aren't smaller than the combo of like Max Fried (not actually available) and the package you can get by trading Syndergaard, but it'd have to be a really special package. And then you want to lose two of these guys? That's really tough.

[whippoorwill]

Edgy MD wrote: It'd be almost impossible to find someone as good. I hate trades, but the guy himself replaced R.A. Dickey after a Cy Young season (eventually, anyhow). Smart management finds good players, sometimes in the packages you traded players for. http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/BillJamesOnline.com currently has Syndergaard as the 43rd-ranked starting pitcher, behind such luminaries as Jake Odorizzi, Wade Miley, and Shane Bieber. That's hardly the last word, but I'm not sure how one gets from 43rd-best to "almost impossible to find someone as good."

Sounds fishy to me

[Lefty Specialist]

Sorry, if I'm trading Syndergaard, I want an insanely good package in return. If no one offers insanely good, keep him.

[Edgy MD]

The methodology isn't to rate who has been best in the first half of this year, but to use a broader deeper data set, analyzing current trends against the historical record, modeled after https://www.billjamesonline.com/the_worlds_1_starting_pitcher/tennis and golf ratings, where an injury won't make you disappear suddenly from rankings, but rather gradually fade. The order even changes in the offseason.

[kcmets]

2020 potential rookie-of-the-year CF would be a good start in trade talks for Noah.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: The methodology isn't to rate who has been best in the first half of this year, but to use a broader deeper data set, analyzing current trends against the historical record, modeled after https://www.billjamesonline.com/the_worlds_1_starting_pitcher/tennis and golf ratings, where an injury won't make you disappear suddenly from rankings, but rather gradually fade. The order even changes in the offseason.

Syndergaard's trade value is predominantly about his upside, his potential, his untapped ceiling, which Bill James's rankings ignores entirely. In Syndergaard's case, is the past merely prologue? Or is the past the future as well? TBD.

Edited July 26, 2019 by Guest

[A Boy Named Seo]

Houston scares me because they're smarter than the Mets. Gerrit Cole's K/9 went from 8.7 in Pittsburgh to 12.4 his first season in Houston and is at 13.5 this year. They did the same shit with Verlander. He was already 34 and striking dudes out, but his K/9 jumped by 2 anyway.



They way Seattle played Brodie, how can I not be afraid they trade us a few lemons and Noah's slider starts exploding again?

[batmagadanleadoff]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Houston scares me because they're smarter than the Mets.

Who isn't? The Mets are one of the dumbest organizations in all of baseball. And on top of that, they're cheap and broke.

[Methead]

Dumb, cheap, and broke is no way to go through life.

[smg58]

Other than McNeil, Alonso, and DeGrom, there is nobody untouchable. Did you notice we're a sub-.500 team? I would happily settle for sanely good for anybody else. But I also wouldn't feel forced to deal anybody who isn't a free agent.

[seawolf17]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Houston scares me because they're smarter than the Mets. Who isn't? The Mets are one of the dumbest organizations in all of baseball. And on top of that, they're cheap and broke.

Yep and yep.

[kcmets]

=Methead post_id=16797 time=1564158044 user_id=61]Dumb, cheap, and broke is no way to go through life.

[Edgy MD]

I'm the only one who picked Frazier still. He's already been dealt at the deadline once.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=smg58 post_id=16798 time=1564158760 user_id=62]
Other than McNeil, Alonso, and DeGrom, there is nobody untouchable.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

I confess I didn't vote in this poll because the order of guys who get traded isn't all that important and much depends on stuff that can't be predicted inasmuch as it takes 2 to make a deal. I'm just using this as an all-purpose speculation thread

[Ceetar]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Houston scares me because they're smarter than the Mets. Who isn't? The Mets are one of the dumbest organizations in all of baseball. And on top of that, they're cheap and broke.

see?

[Ceetar]

Anyway, Bill James has long ceased to be an authority on baseball analysis. I don't know what goes into his rankings, but there are plenty of other ones out there. Regardless, my point stands. Wheeler and Syndergaard are good, and even if there as many as 40 pitchers better than them, that's not a large pool to pull from, or a cheap one, in order to replace the talent you're losing.

[Ceetar]

On the other hand, I just stumbled upon (Via one of the spammy, but worthless Mets blogs) some site that's made up their own player projection system and infused it into some weird trade valuation thing. It's almost complete nonsense/opinion, so maybe Bill James isn't completely worthless.

[Edgy MD]

Wheeler and Syndergaard are good...

That's your point? Has anybody disputed this?