Can You Cano?

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

i think of this as two separate deals:

1. Cano as a free agent for 3 years at $x dollars (3 being the number of years i think can reasonably project his productivity). If you factor in the subtraction of Bruce and Swarzak's 36.5 million, they are at 83.5 million for 3 years of productivity right now. That is way too much of course so the real key is how much they are getting back from the M's. Murphy and Dozier are currently projected as $10 million per year guys. I think Cano is a little better than both, say $12 million. Mets hopefully have much smarter guys than me doing the math and are getting $45+ million back.

2. Kelenic, Dunn & Bautista for Diaz. Two top prospects that are years away and a flyer for an established pre-arb young star. Doesn't sound so crazy. Can anyone compare that to recent trades for a young star?

None of this means I like the deal!

Edited November 30, 2018 by Guest

[HahnSolo]

I'm now thinking about Swarzak. I was figuring on a bounceback, or at least healthy, year.

I guess they're even more in the market for FA relievers now.

[smg58]

The fact that McNeil is not included makes it only marginally awful. But it's still not clear where Cano and McNeil will both play. It's worth keeping in mind that Cano's bat presents a decent, but not huge, upgrade over the kind of first basemen that get claimed off waivers.

The bottom line is: you are trading your #3 and #4 prospects, plus taking on an albatross contract that belongs to a confirmed cheater that you don't yet have a position for, for a relief pitcher. Diaz is really good, and I will feel bad if the fan reaction to him is negative over this, but he is a relief pitcher.

I suppose it makes the Mets a few games better over the short term without substantially adding to the 2019 payroll. But now we need more bullpen depth (we traded two relievers and only got one back, and were shorthanded to begin with), plus we have unresolved situations at catcher and centerfield that went unaddressed. And we added a medium-impact left-handed bat when we needed a high-impact right-handed one.

And trading multiple top-5 prospects while taking on a contract that will get worse over the next five years is not a recipe for sustained success. It gets worse if the gutted farm system and burdensome contract come with no desire to add payroll.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Are we even sure yet that it's a "fact" that McNeil isn't included?

[smg58]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Are we even sure yet that it's a "fact" that McNeil isn't included?

Fair point. Nothing is official yet, but it's being reported that way.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I know. It's very confusing. I certainly hope that McNeil isn't included, but until there's an official announcement, we're just juggling a lot of rumors.

[A Boy Named Seo]

So, um, the Mets got the best player in the trade, so we won the trade, right? Right??

[Lefty Specialist]

This has to be the prelude to something else, because I'm not crazy about it right now. McNeil better not be in it, and there better be plenty of money coming back. Dunn and Bautista I can live with, but Kelenic really hurts.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Hopefully Syndergaard is not their path to re-stocking the top of the farm system, but I think that may be likely.

[Centerfield]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Hopefully Syndergaard is not their path to re-stocking the top of the farm system, but I think that may be likely.

This is scary.

Wouldn't we have been better off just making Syndergaard our closer?

[dgwphotography]

Wasn't BVW also Syndergaard's agent? Maybe he's privy to something we aren't?

[Centerfield]

I hate this trade. Not just for what it might be if Kelenic is good, or if Diaz blows out his elbow, but because of what it signals right now.

1. Money. It always comes down to this doesn't it? Understand this. When we trade our high-priced veterans, we make the other teams pay full freight. This is why we get dick back in return. The only piece that has been useful in all of our mid-season dumps is Gerson Batista. And he's only useful because he's the throw-in for this trade. He's the piece that literally no one cares we are giving up. But when we take veterans back, we hold them up for as much money as possible. Meaning we have to give up two of our best prospects. You want to talk about sustained success? You don't trade chips like Kelenic for salary relief. And that's what it is. If we eat more money on Cano, Kelenic is not part of this deal.

2. The idea of a fair trade. I'm reading things like "If both sides think it's bad, it's a pretty good trade." Yes, this is generally true. You know when it's not true? When one side is hampered with an expensive star with a full no trade. Giancarlo Stanton. Ken Griffey Jr. These are the trades that look one-sided. And anyone says "Why couldn't the Mariners get more value for Griffey?", someone will point to the no trade clause and it all makes sense. No trade clause trades are one-sided. They handicapped team gets fleeced. This is why you try to avoid no-trades. It is unspeakably break even in a trade where the other guy has the no trade. If the returns are close enough to be deemed fair, you've lost. And here, I think we lost the trade outright. In a deal where we had all the leverage in the world and Seattle had none, we somehow came out behind. This speaks very poorly to Brodie's ability to make future trades where we don't have a mountain of leverage on our side.

On top of this, I think Cano will decline fast, and I think the Mets will not take the money they saved and spend it on elite talent. I think Kelenic is going to be a star, and we are going to regret this for years. But we can save that for another day. I hate this trade for those reasons that we know are true today.

[Centerfield]

Per Ken Rosenthal, Mariners GM DiPoto was said to be "euphoric" over the return for Cano and Diaz.

[A Boy Named Seo]

I'm sure he is. They got 2 of the Mets last 4 #1 picks and a young, 100MPH flame-thrower who can become Edwin Diaz if he learns the strike zone. Cool.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'm really leery of baseball players who missed most of their 35 year old seasons. I know how good Cano was up until his suspension, but even without the half a season missed at 35 years old, he's way closer to the end than to the beginning. Plus, what was already noted here -- "Who's on Second?" Obviously, the Mets didn't make this trade to platoon McNeil and Cano. Did the Mets move all these players to acquire Cano, and on top of all the question marks he already brings, the Mets intend to play Cano at a position he's practically never played at all in the Majors?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Here's a view from the Seattle News Tribune that's not fully enthusiastic about the deal:

Is potential Cano-Diaz trade to Mets too costly for Mariners?

Says the Mariners are trading two superstars to get one potential superstar.

[Centerfield]

Here's a view from the Seattle News Tribune that's not fully enthusiastic about the deal: Is potential Cano-Diaz trade to Mets too costly for Mariners? Says the Mariners are trading two superstars to get one potential superstar.

I'm happy to give them back their two superstars.

Let's call the whole thing off.

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

here is a comparable deal for the Diaz part of the trade:

Highly Rated Outfield Prospect (Clint Frazier / Jared Kelenic) + Highly Rated Lefthanded Starting Pitcher Prospect (Justus Sheffield / Justin Dunn) + Mid-Level Relief Prospects (Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen / Gerson Bautista) for Star Reliever (Andrew Miller / Edwin Diaz)

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17184738/cleveland-indians-acquire-star-reliever-andrew-miller-new-york-yankees-prospects

if the $60 million is true, the overall deal looks a lot better in terms of value exchanged. Whether it is the right deal for the Mets is questionable, but we will know eventually.....

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm not happy about it in a matter of taste.

The Mets are so crazy about getting guys at a discount; and they're so crazy about "saves" as a thing; they'll do anything to get them.

Now we have a 36-year-old ex-Yankee steroid cheat who's gonna steal the position of the one guy everyone wants to watch next year to cheer for.

[Benjamin Grimm]

My hope is that somehow it's Frazier that's displaced by Cano, and not McNeil, but who knows?

Cano may end up at first base with the Mets dealing Alonso for a catcher.

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

I expect McNeil will start 3x/week for either Frazier or Alonso against RHP plus occasional starts for Cano. He will also get an outfielders glove and a picture of Ben Zobrist to hang in his locker.

now get us another top reliever, and upgrades at C & CF

[Benjamin Grimm]

There really hasn't been many updates to this story today. Does this mean they're furiously finalizing the details behind closed doors? Or could it be that it's fizzling?

[Centerfield]

I've been rooting for failed physicals.

It's saved our ass once before.

[Benjamin Grimm]

[ashie62]

Mets players who may be involved have been notified by management per Dicomo

[Zvon]

Ashie62 wrote: Mets players who may be involved have been notified by management per Dicomo

Management: "Hello Jay? Mets management here. You may have been traded."

Bruce: "May have? Well get back to me when you know more."

Management: "Oh no, it's a done deal. It's official."

Bruce: "Ugh! Gimme the bottomline."

Management: " Okay....you may have been traded."

[Frayed Knot]

I do recall Nimmo being named as part of the Jay Bruce deal as that one was coming down to the wire.
Obviously he didn't wind up being part of it.

[metirish]

Centerfield wrote: I've been rooting for failed physicals. It's saved our ass once before.

BVW ass is in the jackpot right now

[seawolf17]

metirish wrote: Centerfield wrote: I've been rooting for failed physicals. It's saved our ass once before. BVW ass is in the jackpot right now

[A Boy Named Seo]

[tweet:mjfufzti]

[/tweet:mjfufzti]