2019: Go for broke or break it down!

[Mex17]

It all hinges on who the GM is and what he or she decides to do with deGrom. Either you lock him up or you trade him. Either way, make the commitment and go for it.

The "trade deGrom" option means that you also trade Wheeler along with whoever else you can move who is not under team control through 2021 at minimum. You sacrifice the next two seasons, wait out the Cespedes, Bruce, and Wright contracts, and stock up your minor leagues for another run starting in 2021.

The "lock up deGrom" option means that you go into the market big time. No limits, but sensible based upon need. A version of that can look something like this. . .


Nimmo-RF
McNeil-2b
Conforto-LF
Jones-CF
Bruce-1b
Frazier-3b
Grandal-c
pitcher
Rosario-ss

deGrom
Syndergaard
Matz
Wheeler
Vargas

Kimbrel
Britton
Gsellman
Lugo
Swarzak
Zamora
Smith

Plawecki
Lagares
Flores
Rivera
Reinheimer

[Lefty Specialist]

Bruce is the piece that doesn't fit. Either going for it or breaking it down, he shouldn't be your first baseman.

[smg58]

I agree that Bruce doesn't fit, but I think you have to be prepared to go with him if you can't do better in return for him than a middling prospect and eating half his contract. Now I think his performance after his return (.243./.344/.467) was comparable enough to reasonable expectations that it shouldn't come to that, but you need to hold on to your leverage if you're trying to work out a deal.

[Gwreck]

Going for it means, to me, signing Machado or Harper. Get the best talent available. This might mean having Frazier play first/trading him. I don’t see Jay Bruce fitting in anywhere and would expect him to be traded for anything we can get; or we carry him as a lefty power bat off the bench.

[Ceetar]

I certainly don't think the Mets should persue half-measures, but break it down IS NOT AN OPTION.

Between Nimmo, Conforto and deGrom/Thor, there is a ton of talent that is also still locked up for 2020. Also possibly/probably Rosario, Plawecki, McNeil, Smith?, Matz, Cespedes and maybe even Lagares.

This is definitely not a closing window, and there is zero reason to slam it shut.

I'd like to see Machado, as I think he provides the better fit with less maneuvering than Harper.

Sometimes there are 'lesser' players that end up performing better though. Look at the top SP free agents last year for example, they all sucked. It's hardly the _only_ way to build a team. Is there more value in Donaldson, Dozier, A.J. Pollock? Focusing on catcher and Grandal? or Ramos?

They gotta build the pen. It's the hardest part and the biggest crap shoot, but you could argue that Alderson's best GM move was Addison Reed to pair with Familia.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If I'm interviewing a GM candidate, and he says that his plan would be to tear it down and plan for two seasons of losing, I'd shake his hand, and say "it was a pleasure meeting you. Thank you for coming by. Now get the fuck out of my office."

[Centerfield]

I don’t think they will do either. I think they will make the same type of moves they made last year and we will end up hoping to snag a wild card if everything breaks the right way.

[Lefty Specialist]

Centerfield wrote: I don’t think they will do either. I think they will make the same type of moves they made last year and we will end up hoping to snag a wild card if everything breaks the right way.

Yeah, that's their M.O. The half-measures and the junkheap signings hoping to catch 'lightning in a bottle'.

The bullpen absolutely killed this team this year. They have to get a quality closer and set-up man. And some of the flotsam and jetsam needs to be cleared out or sent back to the minors.

I want to see Alonso next year. he has nothing to prove in the minors. I'd rather see Dom Smith hold down that spot if you're waiting for the Super-Two deadline to pass (as they probably will). Rather see Bruce in the outfield and Lagares/Nimmo man center. I expect they'll see very little of Cespedes; anything they get is a bonus, and somebody else will be hurt by then anyway.

Machado would be nice, but he'll cost a fortune in dollars and years. Another team will lock him up. And I don't want Harper.

[metsmarathon]

it's interesting to see what we do next year. we've got a hell of a rotation, though we've said that before... and we have some good young pieces in the outfield and mid-infield.

and a whole lot of dead weight on the roster that needs to be planned around.

are we really expecting two of bruce/frazier/cespedes to be riding the pine (or on the DL) all next year?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I would love to see them unload both Bruce and Frazier, but that might be too much to hope for. Hopefully they can deal at least one of the two. Frazier has less of a financial commitment ahead of him, so he may be easier to trade.

[Vic Sage]

lineup:
Nimmo*- Cf
McNeil*- 2b
Machado - 3b [fa]
Conforto*- Lf [Arb1]
Grandal#- C [fa]
Bruce* - Rf [$14m]
Frazier -1b [$9m]
[pitcher]
Rosario- SS

bench:
Plawecki - C [Arb1]
Lagares - Cf [$9m]
Flores - IF [Arb3]
TJRivera - Ut
D.Smith* -1b/OF

Rotation:
deGrom [Arb3]
Syndergaard [Arb2]
Wheeler [Arb3]
Matz* [Arb1]
Vargas* [$8m]

Bullpen:
Kimbrel [fa]
A.Ottavino [fa]
J.Wilson* [fa]
Swarzak [$8.5m]
Gsellman
Lugo
Zamora*

[DL - Cespedes] [$29m]

[Centerfield]

lineup: Machado - 3b [fa] Grandal#- C [fa]

lololol

Bullpen: Kimbrel [fa] A.Ottavino [fa]

LOLOLOLOL

[Mex17]

I think Machado signing anywhere to be a third baseman is a pipe dream, the guy has stated that he wants to play shortstop and he has the leverage.

But. . .

If you sign Machado as a shortstop, then Rosario becomes a trade chip, maybe a pretty big one that you can package others around to send to Miami for Realmuto.

[Ceetar]

Mex17 wrote: I think Machado signing anywhere to be a third baseman is a pipe dream, the guy has stated that he wants to play shortstop and he has the leverage. .

as always, money talks.

[Frayed Knot]

But he'll get offered money either way and, given the choice, he'll take the team that signs the check ANNNNNNND allows him to play SS
So for those who want them to go after MM (I personally think his haircut alone disqualifies him from consideration) you also have to tell us what you plan to do with Rosario.

[Lefty Specialist]

Rosario's a trade chip if you sign Machado.

In other words, Rosario's Mets future is quite secure.

[Centerfield]

To clarify, I don’t think Machado is even a remote possibility. But if for some reason he wants to sign here and play SS the answer is simple. Rosario moves to 2B, McNeil goes to 3B. Everyone pretends it works until it doesn’t and then you move everyone back where they should be.

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's exactly what I was thinking.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: But he'll get offered money either way and, given the choice, he'll take the team that signs the check ANNNNNNND allows him to play SS So for those who want them to go after MM (I personally think his haircut alone disqualifies him from consideration) you also have to tell us what you plan to do with Rosario.

this isn't the NBA with max contracts. Someone can simply offer him _more_.

Let's see what happens when he actually starts negotiating.

I'm not worried about what to do with Rosario or Frazier or McNeil. you make room and figure it out.

[smg58]

Machado playing shortstop was less about him wanting to play shortstop and more about him wanting to maximize the number of bidders. I doubt seriously he will leave money on table over it.

[Edgy MD]

lineup: Machado - 3b [fa] Grandal#- C [fa] lololol Bullpen: Kimbrel [fa] A.Ottavino [fa] LOLOLOLOL

I think Kimbrel is probably the most likely big shot free agent to land in Flushing, douchey beard and all.

[Ceetar]

second google result for Kimbrel is "Pitchers trending down"

Kimbrel's real good, and he seems to have bounced back from the worries in that post, but I just don't think most of these top names are good enough to warrant what they'll be asking. Thought I guess it'd be nice to bring in a solid guy to replace Familia that even if he trends down is still pretty reliably very good at least for a few years? Especially if you don't trust the organization evaluations to figure out which random other reliever will thrive here.

I do like Ottavino though. I'm hoping they'll glean a useful arm or two from the cache they built up the last two years too, provided the new pitching coaches aren't completely inept, which it seems like they're probably not. The Mets need a strong bullpen more than anything else.

[Edgy MD]

I agree with regard to Kimbrel. But I think Mets history — and non-Alderson Mets history in particular — suggests a propensity to go big on big-shot, name-brand, possibly declining, possibly douchey closers.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Do we think they might consider bringing Familia back?

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I agree with regard to Kimbrel. But I think Mets history — and non-Alderson Mets history in particular — suggests a propensity to go big on big-shot, name-brand, possibly declining, possibly douchey closers.

well hopefully Mets history in particular is mostly irrelevant because it'll be a new guy making the call with little to no oversight from traditional Mets sources.

Is Kimbrel douchey beyond the look? I don't know much about him I don't think.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Going out and blowing the free agent budget on a closer is exactly the kind of thing an incompetant organization like the Mets loves doing, *especially* when they want to make a show of how serious they are. It's almost always a shortsighted waste of $$.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree. Bolster the middle of the bullpen and let Lugo or Gsellman or whoever else proves to be the best drift towards the late innings.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I agree with regard to Kimbrel. But I think Mets history — and non-Alderson Mets history in particular — suggests a propensity to go big on big-shot, name-brand, possibly declining, possibly douchey closers. well hopefully Mets history in particular is mostly irrelevant because it'll be a new guy making the call with little to no oversight from traditional Mets sources. Is Kimbrel douchey beyond the look?

Possibly.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Going out and blowing the free agent budget on a closer is exactly the kind of thing an incompetant organization like the Mets loves doing, *especially* when they want to make a show of how serious they are. It's almost always a shortsighted waste of $$.

I mean, yeah, but...the Red Sox acquired Kimbrel and his contract in a trade in roughly the same way. He had 11, 13, 13(buyout) coming to him and they gave up 4 players. They'd finished 5th the previous year and then won the division all three years they had him.

Obviously Kimbrel now gets more than $25 guaranteed or whatever, but the Mets really do need the bullpen help the most.

[Centerfield]

Are big name closers worth it?

Right now there are five closers with a multi-year deal worth over $40 million.

Aroldis Chapman (5 years, $86 million)
Kenley Jansen (5 years, $80 million)
Mark Melancon (4 years, $62 million)
Wade Davis (3 years, $52 million)
Craig Kimbrel (4 years, $42 million)

Four of those guys are on teams that made the playoffs this year. The one guy who did not make the playoffs is Mark Melancon, who also hasn't been very good.

On a per year basis, there are 7 guys making more than $10 million per year. Those five guys above, plus Brandon Morrow and Cody Allen.

6 of those 7 guys are pitching in the playoffs, again, with Mark Melancon as the only exception.

Source: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/closer/

Now, you certainly don't need an expensive closer. Out of the ten playoff teams, six feature the guys above, while four have relatively cheap solutions. Vizcaino in Atlanta, Cory Knebel in Milwaukee, Rondon/Giles in Houston and Blake Treinen in Oakland are relatively inexpensive (making less than $5 million). But with the exception of maybe Houston, I think it's safe to say that every playoff team has a pretty terrific closer.

I don't see that the Mets have that guy in their organization. I guess they could trade for someone. But I think if they are serious about competing next year, they need a lockdown guy, one way or another.