Extendos

[Edgy MD]

I would beg the incoming GM of the Mets to make his or her first order of business locking up Jake deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler. At the same time, I kno, that extensions, like any longterm contract, comes with the strong possibility of a team with a limited budget (and all teams have that) eating some serious shit as the contract progresses. Also, even short-term, nailing all three down could hamper the team's ability to improve the offense.

That said, I would beg the incoming GM of the Mets to make his or her first order of business locking up Jake deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler.

So if you're that guy, and you hear me begging, what do you do?

[fimg=650:6lc3xhdp]https://www.yardbarker.com/media/8/b/8bc7d62b6b8ebe5af6b8c0e26fdde6b841561ca6/thumb_16x9/11105198.jpg[/fimg:6lc3xhdp]

[Benjamin Grimm]

I would make my first order of business locking up Jake deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler.

Well, maybe not first order of business, but it would definitely be at or near the top of my offseason to-do list. All three might be a bit of a stretch, so I'd focus first on deGrom and Wheeler. Syndergaard has a little more runway before free agency kicks in.

[Edgy MD]

Think of the motivation it would be for Matzy if they all cash in around the same time.

[seawolf17]

All three, to identical contracts. And you announce them on the same day. FOREVER LINKED.

[Edgy MD]

I'd have trouble giving them all identical contracts, given differences in consistency, age, and injury history, but sure.

So far it's uncontroversial (five out of five voters) that all should be offered extensions, budgets be damned, and I guess the risk is somewhat cancelled out in the redundancy. Anybody want to lay out what size contracts they are willing to proffer?

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I would make my first order of business locking up Jake deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler. Well, maybe not first order of business, but it would definitely be at or near the top of my offseason to-do list. All three might be a bit of a stretch, so I'd focus first on deGrom and Wheeler. Syndergaard has a little more runway before free agency kicks in.

Yup.

I'd kick the tires on Conforto too, but he's a Boras guy so who knows.

But it's hard to see the Mets extending their pitchers, getting more offense and upgrading their bullpen.

[Guest 41Forever]

Lock them up! Elite starting pitching is the toughest thing to find in baseball. I think the Mets will try to extend all three and build around them.

[Guest d'Kong76]

New GM: Mr. Wilpon, I think we should float extendo offers for at least
two of our top pitchers... maybe three.

Fred: Good idea, leak it to the press at once and then hold off for a few
while it gets twatted or twerped... that thing Stump uses.

New GM: Any idea on numbers, who gets what?

Fred: Make believable offers, but low ball them enough so they'll decline.
This ain't Monopoly money, Son.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Anybody want to lay out what size contracts they are willing to proffer?

Darvish signed for 6 years, 21 per.

Arrieta signed for 3 years, 25 per.

All three are better than these guys. So on the free market they'd be $25 million plus. But they're not yet free agents yet.

deGrom is the best of them, but he's already 30 years old. Buying out his last two years before free agency is worth something. I don't know 6 years, 25 per year? That's $150 million.

Wheeler is the closest to FA. But he's had a history of arm troubles. Maybe you get away with four years.

Noah, I have no idea. He's multiple years away, but has had trouble staying healthy the past few years. I don't even know where you start.

[smg58]

I think you wait and see with Thor. With the other two, I'd act now, but I have a clearer idea for DeGrom (the 6 and 150 is probably realistic) than Wheeler.

[Edgy MD]

41Forever wrote: Lock them up! Elite starting pitching is the toughest thing to find in baseball. I think the Mets will try to extend all three and build around them.

I don't know if this is necessarily true or not, but to the extent that I think it is, I think it's even truer to say that elite starting pitching is the toughest thing to sustain, which is why teams fear to tread where fans rush in.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I took deGrom, first thing first. Getting Fred to do it will be like pulling teeth.
Free Shirt Fridays next year will be $10 Shirt Fridays.

[Frayed Knot]

On the '80s Mets, "locking up" their top players had a different meaning.

[Centerfield]

Lock them up! Elite starting pitching is the toughest thing to find in baseball. I think the Mets will try to extend all three and build around them. I don't know if this is necessarily true or not, but to the extent that I think it is, I think it's even truer to say that elite starting pitching is the toughest thing to sustain, which is why teams fear to tread where fans rush in.

I agree with this. But if you're going to win a championship, risks have to be taken and fingers crossed. The way I see it, a championship team needs good starting pitching.

You can:
1. Develop it within your system
2. Trade for it
3. Sign Free Agents

The Mets have developed these guys, but there's no one else coming down the line. They don't really have the chips to trade for elite starters, and if you're going to sign free agents, you pay anyway. Might as well get your own guys.

[Gwreck]

Especially because signing your own players costs only money.

No draft pick loss (signing other FAs).
No player loss (trade).

We know who these players are. Sign them all to extensions.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, no, I voted for sticking their head out and signing all three. Fuck me, but I want the chips down and down on those guys.

One meaningful factor is that, with Wright retiring, deGrom and Syndergaard are positioned to take up the "Face of the Franchise" mantle.

I'll put the money down:

• deGrom: Three years, $70 million, with an option for a fourth year at the same rate, that automatically vests after 75 starts.
  
• Syndergaard: Three years, $60 million, with an option for a fourth year at the same rate, that automatically vests after 75 starts.
  
• Wheeler: Three years, $50 million, with an option for a fourth year at the same rate, that automatically vests after 75 starts.

Yeah, I know deGrom is going to want more than three years guaranteed — all of them will — but I open there.

[seawolf17]

I'd go higher.

[*]deGrom: Five years, $110 million
[*]Syndergaard: Five years, $110 million
[*]Wheeler: Four years, $60 million

Or go longer and give them the mid-contract opt-out that has been so popular the last few offseasons.

[Centerfield]

I'd go higher. [*]deGrom: Five years, $110 million [*]Syndergaard: Five years, $110 million [*]Wheeler: Four years, $60 million Or go longer and give them the mid-contract opt-out that has been so popular the last few offseasons.

I think each pitcher would want 2 more years tacked on.

[Benjamin Grimm]

And, at this point anyway, deGrom should get more than Syndergaard.

[Edgy MD]

I'd go higher. [*]deGrom: Five years, $110 million [*]Syndergaard: Five years, $110 million [*]Wheeler: Four years, $60 million Or go longer and give them the mid-contract opt-out that has been so popular the last few offseasons. I think each pitcher would want 2 more years tacked on.

Wheeler ain't getting no six years based on a half season of success with no free agency leverage.

Who does he think is? Oliver Perez?

[Vic Sage]

i don't understand why they would extend either deGrom or Syndegaard.

DeGrom is 30, in his prime and coming off a career year. We have him under control for 2 more seasons (ages 31-32), during which he'll be able to arbitrate to get a better salary, albeit less than he'd get on a strictly open market. Any extension would be equivalent to buying his ages 31-32 seasons at a higher salary, just to guarantee we can pay more for his ages 33+ years. But age 33 + is exactly when you DON'T want to have a high-contract pitcher on the payroll. He may well be past his prime at that point; most pitchers are. Sure, he may still be able to produce premium seasons at that point, but it's less likely. And yes, he may still be producing very good and above average seasons at that point, and that is certainly worth having, but they may have to overpay to get them. It's just not necessary to extend a guy who still has 2 more guaranteed seasons with us, and won't be a FA until he's 33.

Now, i love deGrom as much as anybody, and it's not my money so I hope they pull the Brinks truck up to his door (as well as Syndy and Wheeler) but I've got timid and over-leveraged ownership who are not necessarily going to change their budgetary ways. If the Pons have $25-$30m tied up in a 35 year old pitcher, I don't think it's like they'll then spend more money on another $30m pitcher to make up for the natural dropoff in production that aging inevitably brings. Sure, i would hope they'd gamble on him having an extended prime, and be willing to cut their losses if they're wrong, but that's not the Pon way of doing business. And i don't believe FOR A SECOND that they'll pay all 3 of them now.

As for Syndy, he's got THREE arb years left, after which he'll be 30 and still in his prime. Does it make sense to buy out his arb years to get his 30-32 years? Maybe it does. I would wait one more season to see how he holds up. A lot of scouts think his motion will cause serious debilitating injury, so its not certain that he gets thru his arb years with us, much less is still a premium pitcher at 30.

Wheeler, for me, is the real question. He's got only 1 arb year left, and will become a FA at age 30 (like Syndy). If he has another year like this one, he'll get a FA deal for a GREAT DEAL of money in 2020. So, depending on whether they believe he's likely over his injuries and has turned the corner, and really is the Ace-type pitcher he's shown himself to be in the 2nd half, it may well be better to give him the raise next year, instead of in 2 years, in order to keep him off the market in 2020, where we'll have to bid for his services and pay even more to keep him.

[Edgy MD]

Unless his arm breaks in one of his two final starts, deGrom is going to get a hewj reward in arbitration. The reason why teams extend somebody in that situation is to trade some longer-term stability to him in exchange for that leverage he brings to the arbitration table, and to lock in cost-certainty during that period.

[Vic Sage]

Edgy MD wrote: Unless his arm breaks in one of his two final starts, deGrom is going to get a hewj reward in arbitration. The reason why teams extend somebody in that situation is to trade some longer-term stability to him in exchange for that leverage he brings to the arbitration table, and to lock in cost-certainty during that period.

The Mets will have to pay a great deal in arb, but still less than they would if they were bidding on him on the open market; and the same would be true of the year after that. An extension beyond the 2 years of arbitration works for deGrom because it will pay him more NOW than arb would for those 2 years, as well as guaranteeing him some more years on the back end (1 more? 5 more?). If he is actually on track for a HOF career, and we then pay him like he is right now, then he'll be getting underpaid vs the marketplace for those extended age 33+ years, which is a risk deGrom is probably willing to take and the risk would be worth it for the Mets, as well. But if he's just a very good pitcher having a career year, and we end up paying him like a future HOFer, we would be paying him more, both NOW and LATER. "Cost certainty" is not a plus if that cost is over the market.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: And, at this point anyway, deGrom should get more than Syndergaard.

I agree.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Anybody want to lay out what size contracts they are willing to proffer? Darvish signed for 6 years, 21 per. Arrieta signed for 3 years, 25 per. All three are better than these guys. So on the free market they'd be $25 million plus.

Then the question becomes what, if anything, do you take from those signings?

The Darvish deal has been a disaster although the Cubs expect him ready for ST and have five years to try and get some value out of it
The Arrieta signing has worked out better but not great as the Phillies slide back toward .500 and Jake's H/9 & HR/9 rates slide back up to near where they were in his Baltimore days [5.9, 6.3, 8.0, 8.5] [0.4, 0.7, 1.2, 1.0] in 2015-2018

2019 will be Arrieta's age 33 season (Mar) while Darvish will turn 33 in August

[seawolf17]

They were also FAs, and with our guys we're buying out some arbitration years. So it's not an exact parallel.

[Vic Sage]

yes, but buying out a guy's arbitration years generally costs MORE, not LESS, than the player would get in arbitration.

A team pays more now so it can lock a player in at today's rates after he would've become a FA, and its generally worth it to the team because, if the player is good, you've got him for more years by paying more now and paying less than the market rate later, as salaries increase and his stays the same. The player is willing to trade a higher salary later for a better one now, because shit happens and later may never come.

With deGrom, the question is do the Mets want to pay him at the top of the current market as he comes off a career year and likely CY (which is MORE than he'd get in arbitration over the next 2 years), so that we can have his years after age 33, and to have him at less than what the market may be for him at that point? That would work out well if he is on his way to a HOF career, since those are the sorts of pitchers who maintain a high level of production in their mid30s. Its the really-good-but-not-HOF guys whose careers start to decline at that point (some precipitously). If that happens, we're paying him more both now and later.

[Mex17]

deGrom is easy. 5 years, somewhere between $130-$150 million. Just get it done.

I've read too that BVW wants to extend Wheeler as well. I makes sense to me to buy out two years, keep him locked up through his age 31 season, and see what happens. What I do not know are three things. . .

-His estimated 2019 arbitration number
-His free market value
-What the point in between those two figures ought to be

Some of you I believe subscribe to and frequent websites that dole out that kind of info. Would you care to chime in on Wheeler?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Van Wagenen was interviewed by Steve Gelbs on Mets Hot Stove last night. He said that he doesn't like indecision, and that his preference is to determine Jacob deGrom's future before the season starts. He seemed to be implying that if they can't extend Jacob during this offseason, that they may very well trade him before Opening Day.

[seawolf17]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: He seemed to be implying that if they can't extend Jacob during this offseason, that they may very well trade him before Opening Day.

brb getting my pitchfork and torch ready to storm citi field