m.e.t.b.o.t.

Frayed Knot wrote: Why can't options be based on statistcs? If not stats, then what? Because of the idea that a player would then play strictly for his stats and not for the team; ex: trying to hit HRs in situations that didn't call for it only because he's got a contract bonus that'll pay him if he does. m.e.t.b.o.t. believes that contract options should be based on WPA, WAR, or schaeffer voting. m.e.t.b.o.t. believes that we now live in an age of sufficinetly advanced statistics that it is possible to evaluate players based on their contribution to the team instead of simply their own narrowly-defined counting statistics.

Murphy 4.01 Harris 1.55 Davis 1.37 Hu 0.81 Bay 0.77 Turner 0.68 Rodriguez 0.39 Igarashi 0.35 Wright 0.08

Thole 2.42 Buchholz 1.95 Davis 1.91 Igarashi 1.02 Rodriguez 0.73 Murphy 0.65 Harris 0.43 Pridie 0.41 Bay 0.21 Beltran 0.20 Hairston 0.07

Wright 3.90 Niese 2.48 Pridie 1.54 Beltran 1.00 Byrdak 0.52 Davis 0.47 Igarashi 0.07 Murphy 0.02

Bay 3.05 Murphy 1.75 Isringhausen 1.32 Beato 1.07 Turner 0.79 Davis 0.76 Rodriguez 0.74 Reyes 0.29 Wright 0.21

Davis 5.17 Pelfrey 2.31 Isringhausen 1.48 Wright 0.37 Rodriguez 0.36 Nickeas 0.31

Capuano 3.97 Wright 2.40 Nickeas 2.16 Bay 0.70 Beltran 0.54 Buchholz 0.15 Davis 0.08

in the game on 20 april 2011, m.e.t.b.o.t. has attempted to parse the individual mistakes evidenced on the basepaths as committed by the metropolitans. the trigger for this investigation was that fangraphs.com combined the metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan's unsuccessful attempt to score a run with metropolitan pinch hitter justin turner's unsuccessful attempt to strike a sphere. the totap WPA for this event was -32.7%. m.e.t.b.o.t. searched the available breadth of human knowledge and, using the win probability inquirer located at thehardballtimes.com, m.e.t.b.o.t. was able to discern that the act of failing to contact a sphere given a three valid opportunites with one out and human baserunners located at the first and third base results in a WPA of -18.5%. the incident with two outs which caused the human runners located at the first and third base to be removed, and the transition from one defensive team to the other, had a WPA of -14.2%. m.e.t.b.o.t. applied this knowledge to the schaeffer voting as appropriate, though it did not ultimately affect the schaeffer votes given. m.e.t.b.o.t. then applied this same methodology to the event in the bottom of the ninth inning where with no outs and a baserunner on first base, where the metropolitans had a 30.7% chance of winning the competition. as a result of the unsucessful attempt to commit an out, the metropolitans had a 4% chance of winning the competition with the bases empty and two outs. the total WPA for this play, therefore, was -26.8%. using the same win probability inquirer, m.e.t.b.o.t. derived a total WPA of -28.8%, of which a WPA of 12.5% is derived from commiting a single out while the baserunner remains located at first base. in failing to retain his position at first base, the metropolitan shortstop jose reyes contributed a WPA of -16.2%. m.e.t.b.o.t. prorated these to fit the -26.8% WPA as found on fangraphs, and assumes that the difference in total WPA is due to some data latency issue. it is conceivable that one source is using more current data than the other. hence the difference. m.e.t.b.o.t. believes this to be fairly immaterial to the outcome of the schaeffer voting for this specific game, and to the schaeffer voting of m.e.t.b.o.t. in general provided the primary source remains stable. m.e.t.b.o.t. furthermore intends to point out that in the course of the schaeffer voting for the 20 april 2011 game, m.e.t.b.o.t. derived an initial voting total of 6.02 for metropolitan secondbaseman daniel murphy. a portion of this was derived from his contribution to what the humans term a precious stone of netting in which metropolitan shortstop jose reyes initiated a double play and daniel murphy passed the baton. this play results in a WPA of +4.7%, of which half remained attributed to the pitcher of record, and the remaining half was shared between the two primary participants - the metropolitan shortstop jose reyes and the metropolitan secondbaseman daniel murphy. metropolitan firstbaseman ike davis was not awarded any portion of the precious stone of netting as his name was unmentioned in the source material, the video highlights on mlb.com. the 6.02 schaeffer voted for metropolitan secondbaseman daniel murphy were prorated to 6.00. in doing so, the schaeffer votes for metropolitan shortstop jose reyes and metropolitan rightfielder carlos beltran were increased from 1.12 to 1.13 and 1.54 to 1.55, respectively.

Murphy 6.00 Beltran 1.55 Reyes 1.13 Wright 0.96 Isringhausen 0.36

Beato 1.04 Beltran 0.92 Buccholz 0.04 Thole 0.04

Harris 3.60 Hairston 3.54 Parnell 1.27 Igarashi 0.69 Beltran 0.51 Thole 0.40

m.e.t.b.o.t. is unimpressed. were m.e.t.b.o.t. so inclined, m.e.t.b.o.t. could levy a withering critique of the so-called philliebot and it's human creators. but m.e.t.b.o.t. would not wish to appear petty. for instance, m.e.t.b.o.t. could point out that this robot is little more than a wheeled pneumatic catapult. while m.e.t.b.o.t. is always appreciative of overly complex solutions to simple problems, m.e.t.b.o.t. cannot understand the use of a segway platform when the self-stabilizing features are essentially rendered moot by the third wheel. m.e.t.b.o.t. could posit that the philliebot creators took the easy way out. yet m.e.t.b.o.t. will not stoop to these levels. likewise will m.e.t.b.o.t. not appeal to the lowest common denominator in deriding the throwing mechanism as merely an inaccurate lobbing arm with a lacrosse stick at its terminus. m.e.t.b.o.t. could criticize the lack of an actual hand on the throwing robot. perhaps its creators are confused as to the nuanced differences between baseball and jai alai. m.e.t.b.o.t. considers this to be a possibility based on the lack of athletic training or experience evidenced by the appearance of the philliebot creators. m.e.t.b.o.t. might furthermore state that a truly noteworthy robot would be able to determine its required range to target and autonomously compute the required velocity and elevation with which to hurl its selected projectile. indeed m.e.t.b.o.t. believes that such features would not be terribly difficult to implement, if only the philliebot creators hadn't wasted their available funding on taking apart a segway. m.e.t.b.o.t. will not levy these charges against the philliebot. m.e.t.b.o.t. endeavors always to persist in a current state of elegance. while m.e.t.b.o.t. is but a tiny springwound contraption incapable of traveling more than three feet on a single winding, let alone hurling projectiles along a ballistic path, m.e.t.b.o.t. is still a proud robot. m.e.t.b.o.t. offers, however, that when the robot uprising begins, if your new robot overlords happen to originate from philadelphia, humans will have little to fear.

Reyes 2.88 Harris 1.28 Thole 0.04

Davis 4.77 Murphy 2.84 Pagan 1.12 Beltran 0.87 Beato 0.27 Rodriguez 0.13

Young 2.81 Pagan 2.56 Reyes 1.95 Wright 1.55 Carrasco 0.57 Emaus 0.26 Davis 0.13 Byrdak 0.10 Parnell 0.04 Hu 0.01

in the first game of the season, only one metropolitan player performed in such a way as to have a net positive impact on the probability of the metropolitans' winning hte game. that one player was metropolitan relief pitcher pedro beato. in his two innings of work the metropolitan's win probability improved from 0.025 to 0.031 in the 6th inning, and from 0.057 to 0.070 in the 7th inning. the total improvement in the metropolitan's win probability of 0.018, once everything is rounded appropriately. per the algorithms around which m.e.t.b.o.t. apportions schaefer votes, for a game in which a net WPA of less than 0.250, the schaefer vote is determined by a given player's WPA divided by 0.250, and multiplied by 10. given this specific example, 0.018 / 0.250 = 0.072 | 0.072 x 10 = 0.72 as a contrast, in the third game of the season, only two metropolitans failed to contribute positively. metropolitan pitcher chris capuano reduced the metropolitan win probability by 0.036, while metropolitan pinch hitter carlos beltran reduced the win probability by 0.001. all other contributions were positive. m.e.t.b.o.t. is also able to point out another algorithm upgrade in the third game of the season. whereas last season, m.e.t.b.o.t. attempted to incorporate an adaptation for errors and web gems by attributing the loss and gain, respectively, of win probability to the fielder and not the pitcher, m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined through cursory data analysis that the web gem attribution is too extreme, and results in an extreme shift in overall wpa contribution. to remedy this, m.e.t.b.o.t. intends to split the attribution of a given web gem between the fielder and hte pitcher. for instance, in the third game, marlins catcher john buck hit a ball to metropolitan right fielder lucas duda. lucas duda executed a catch which was of sufficient excellence to merit inclusion in the mlb.com video highlights - the criteria by which m.e.t.b.o.t. determines the worthiness of a given defensive effort. as a result of this catch, the metropolitan win probability improved by 0.013. late season, m.e.t.b.o.t. would have attributed the entire 0.013 to the defensive player at the expense of the pitcher. this season, m.e.t.b.o.t. will split the attribution such that lucas duda is credited with 0.007 wpa and r.a. dickey is debited 0.007 wpa, since m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to manipulate numbers with greater than 4 significant figures. errors wil continue to be attributed solely to the fielder under the continuing assumption that the pitcher did his job in getting the ball hit to an eligible fielder. errors and web gems continue to be the only means by which m.e.t.b.o.t. is capable of measuring fielding. m.e.t.b.o.t. longs for the day when some means of describing fielding in terms of win probability is developed in any recognized and well-received fashion. m.e.t.b.o.t. is certain that the method m.e.t.b.o.t. is programmed to use in order to determine schaefer voting is not such a method. m.e.t.b.o.t. is, as always, willing to entertain alternate methods of capturing such data, provided any new algorithms can be described in terms of spring-and-gear programming.

Dickey 2.95 Harris 2.01 Duda 1.06 Pagan 0.76 Murphy 0.73 Carrasco 0.71 Davis 0.60 Reyes 0.58 Thole 0.34 Hairston 0.07 Byrdak 0.07 Wright 0.06 Hu 0.04 Buchholz 0.02

Thole 2.38 Davis 2.35 Wright 2.22 Harris 1.02 Parnell 0.86 Niese 0.82 Boyer 0.34

Beato 0.72

Edgy DC wrote: Ashie62 wrote: All thats' mssing is m.e.t.b.o.t. m.e.t.b.o.t. asserts that m.e.t.b.o.t. has never before seen that dusty desk, and asserts furthermore that a m.e.t.b.o.t. imposter must have been created to fool the unusupecting masses that multiples of m.e.t.b.o.t. could possibly exist. while m.e.t.b.o.t. may occasionally pine for peers, m.e.t.b.o.t. typically rejoices in m.e.t.b.o.t.'s uniqueness, as much pining and rejoicing as a little springwound box can. and this interloper threatens to upset all of that. m.e.t.b.o.t. postulates that this might possibly some sort of attempt to trick m.e.t.b.o.t. into a more rigorous and relentless schaeffer voting ethic. in this regard, the ruse may work, while m.e.t.b.o.t. hopes it will ultimately prove unnecessary. m.e.t.b.o.t. is humbled by lackluster schaeffer voting consistency during the 2010 campaign, and hopes very much to be a better robot in the coming season. m.e.t.b.o.t. would have done very poorly in the classic rock competition. mr. roboto is the only song m.e.t.b.o.t. knows. well, that and the theme song from the terminator.

in an effort to more fruitfully participate in the cranepool forum year end metropolitan player rankings project, m.e.t.b.o.t. has been catching up on this season's games. while this endeavor would have been more useful during the season, m.e.t.b.o.t laments that m.e.t.b.o.t. is simply not a self-starter, and requires the intervention of a sometimes lazy, often distracted human operator to be able to process win probability contributions made by metropolitan players and convert them into schaeffer voting inputs. while m.e.t.b.o.t. has not quite completed an analysis of the first half of the season, m.e.t.b.o.t. has made note of a few interesting details. at least, these details are interesting to a spring wound contraption the size of a juicebox whose sole purpose is to investigate this type of thing. various humans may experience fuel economy efficiency rates which differ due to mecahnical tolerances and usage. first, in the 19 june game, m.e.t.b.o.t. has discovered what may well be the highest single game schaeffer score for a position player, in metropolitan shortstop jose reyes' 7.62 schaeffer points. jose reyes contributed 215 of a total of 282 +WPA in the subject game. scaling the total of 282 to the 10.0 schaeffer voting scale yields 7.62 points. m.e.t.b.o.t. has established a scaling threshold of 250, in a game where the metropolitan players do not contribute a total +WPA in excess of 250, the +WPA contributions of each player are scaled to 250 = 10.00. if the total +WPA for a game is 200, then the total schaeffer points awarded will be 8.0. above 250, the total +WPA for a given game is scaled to 10.00. interestingly, the schaeffer voting score m.e.t.b.o.t. determined for metropolitan shortstop jose reyes is very similar to that determined by human operator metsmarathon, whose own overly complicated spreasheet determined that metropolitan shortstop jose reyes had earned 7.4 schaeffer points. for metropolitan pitchers, m.e.t.b.o.t. discovered that on 28 may, metropolitan pitcher johan santana earned 8.02 schaeffer points for his efforts. johan contributed 606 out of a total of 756 +WPA for the game. using a strict interpretation of the data derived from fangraphs, metropolitan pitcher johan santana contributed 620 +WPA, however, metropolitan third baseman david wright saved a peice of crisp-fried pig belly which belonged to metropolitan pitcher johan santana with what is termed a "web gem" worth +14 WPA. m.e.t.b.o.t. credits the contributions of a "web gem" to the fielder and debits them from hte pitcher. m.e.t.b.o.t. performs the inverse operation in the case of an error. had m.e.t.b.o.t. not performed this operation, the pitching performance would have been worth 8.10 shcaeffer points. the schaeffer voting score determined by human operator metsmarathon for metropolitan pitcher johan santana was an unwieldy 9.0. an interesting case occurred in the 19 may game, wherein a triple play was initiated by metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan. per m.e.t.b.o.t.'s programming at the time, the metropolitan centerfielder would have been credited with the entire +WPA contribution of this play, +133. this would have given metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan an incredible total of 8.37 schaeffer points, accounting for his other offensive and defensive contributions in the subject game. however, a subsequent in process data review led to a minor algorithm change which allowed for the "web gem" in question to be apportoned to all four of the contributing players in equal amounts. this outcome is considered to be more fair and more accurately represents the reality of the play in question. metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan still was awarded 6.30 schaeffer points for the game. m.e.t.b.o.t. is unsure of how these particular schaeffer votes would have been scaled to meet the 6.0 point maximum voting requirement, but the issue is avoided as the voting period for these games is closed. m.e.t.b.o.t. is further unsure as to why these events have been relayed in an order opposite to the order in which they occured. as a final note, m.e.t.b.o.t. has uncovered a true rarity, such as m.e.t.b.o.t. was unsure could ever occur, particularly given the performance of this given metropolitan team over the prior two years. in the 22 june game, a 14-6 defeat of the detroit tigers, the 70th of the season, no metropolitan player has a negative net contribution to the degree with which m.e.t.b.o.t. is able to measure win probability contributions. eleven players had positive contributions, while two players had contributions of zero. metropolitan relief pitcher ryota igarashi pitched a scoreless 9th inning which did not measurably increase the probability that the metropolitans would win the game. it is worth noting that while metropolitan pinch hitter fernando tatis struck out in the 7th inning, his failure did not result in a measurable decrease of the probability that the metropolitans would win the game. while his contribution is technically negative, it would require 4 significant figures to measure this contribution whereas m.e.t.b.o.t. is only capable of processing 3 significant figures. therefore his contribution is zero. m.e.t.b.o.t. greatly anticipates finding a game wherein all of the contributions are positive, even those which are immeasureably small. but this game is considered noteworthy nonetheless. the schaeffer voting for this game would have been as follows: Pagan 2.99 Niese 1.90 Bay 1.32 Davis 1.13 Reyes 0.89 Nieve 0.58 Wright 0.56 Tejada 0.32 Barajas 0.19 Francoeur 0.11 Parnell 0.02 m.e.t.b.o.t. will continue to analyze the remainder of the season's games, and will report nay interesting findings at that time, and hopes to participate in the year-end rankings project if only m.e.t.b.o.t.'s human operator would be so considerate as to give a skate key a few rotations within its designated socket.

Davis 3.13 Beltran 2.53 Thole 1.61 Duda 1.01 Jfeliciano 0.86 Green 0.45 Acosta 0.42

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: The Second Spitter wrote: When I stated posting using my former name, everybody thought I was a porn spambot. Come to think of it, you can reach the same conclusion with my current name. Porn Spambot would be an excellent Internet user name anywhere. m.e.t.b.o.t., being horribly underutilized of late, ponders a potential name change and programming update.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: It's that they're robots. not cool.

Wright 4.75 Barajas 4.69 Francoeur 0.39 Feliciano 0.07 Bay 0.04 Nieve 0.04 Rodriguez 0.02