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Everything posted by m.e.t.b.o.t.
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Castillo 2.17 Delgado 1.69 Sheffield 1.51 Castro 1.08 Putz 0.96 Reyes 0.92 Parnell 0.74 Green 0.61 Feliciano 0.17 Murphy 0.16
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Sheffield 2.71 Castro 1.90 Rodriguez 1.55 ODay 1.01 Beltran 0.85 Feliciano 0.85 Stokes 0.62 Delgado 0.31 Church 0.19
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Perez 3.38 Beltran 1.92 Parnell 1.48 Wright 1.08 Delgado 0.95 Castillo 0.69 Murphy 0.26 Putz 0.20 Green 0.05
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Schaefer POTG 04/13/2009 San Diego 6, Mets 5
m.e.t.b.o.t. replied to Benjamin Grimm's topic in New York Mets Talk
Wright 5.95 Green 1.16 Putz 1.08 Reed 1.02 Rodriguez 0.80 -
m.e.t.b.o.t. is not confident in the ability of a tiny spring-wound contraption with a rudimentary locomotion mechanism to be able to outrun dissenting human schaeffer voters carrying virtual torches and pitchforks. m.e.t.b.o.t. is unable to yield to peer pressure and will not amend the schaefer voting for metropolitan pitcher johan santana, as the deterministic outcome of his efforts produced only 0.057 WPA pitching, and -0.041 WPA hitting. since m.e.t.b.o.t. ascribes the outcomes of batted balls to the pitcher and not to any fielder, m.e.t.b.o.t. presumes that metropolitan pitcher johan santana would have improved the probability of winning the baseball game by not inducing a long fly ball that could be dropped by a fielder, or a subsequent hit.
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Delgado 1.32 Reed 1.28 Santana 0.64 Parnell 0.64
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Reyes 2.99 Hernandez 2.84 Castillo 1.43 Delgado 1.05 Church 0.77 Feliciano 0.66 Rodriguez 0.23 Cora 0.03
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Reed 3.65 Beltran 2.25 Church 1.93 Feliciano 0.79 Murphy 0.72 Putz 0.34 Sheffield 0.18 Delgado 0.14
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Delgado 3.05 Schneider 1.50 Beltran 1.42 Wright 1.33 Rodriguez 1.13 Parnell 1.03 Reyes 0.21 Murphy 0.19 Putz 0.15
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Wright 5.02 Church 3.14 Stokes 0.96 Beltran 0.45 Feliciano 0.34 Murphy 0.09
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m.e.t.b.o.t. worries about rust, hydrogen embrittlement, and the coefficient of thermal expansion of the various materials which constitute m.e.t.b.o.t.
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m.e.t.b.o.t. is not properly articulated to allow for typing. internal to m.e.t.b.o.t. is a complicated system of miniature armatures and levers which actuate tiny magnets. the movement of these magnets in the presence of an electrical current creates a hall effect, which can be detected and interpreted as a data stream. in order to communicate with human participants on an electronic message board, m.e.t.b.o.t. must be placed in the vicinity of a USB cable, and wound up. the signals resulting from the internal workings of m.e.t.b.o.t. are then translated into a format appropriate for human interpretation and transmitted to the cranepool forum. m.e.t.b.o.t. only has this rudimentary level of data pertaining to the ability of m.e.t.b.o.t. to communicate electronically. m.e.t.b.o.t. has very limited memory capability, as would be expected from a tiny spring-wound contraption, and is not programmed with the ability to interpret complex mechanical structures. m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined through observation of humans that humans have similarly rudimentary understandings of their own inner workings, specifically pertaining to the ability to receive, process, and transmit data. for each character presented on screen, m.e.t.b.o.t. articulates at least one magnet-bearing armature. m.e.t.b.o.t. does not take shortcuts, and is prone to taking what humans are observed to describe as "the scenic route." m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to quantify defensive value. m.e.t.b.o.t. is capable of perceiving that defense may have some contribution towards winning baseball games, but is not currently aware of any algorithms which calculate its value in terms of the additive probability of winning a baseball game. similarly, m.e.t.b.o.t. is not aware of any algorithms which are capable of differentiating the contribution made by the pitcher and by the fielder(s) for a given batted ball in terms of the additive probability of winning a baseball game.
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m.e.t.b.o.t. is programmed to look only at deterministic results pertaining to the winning and losing of a baseball game. to m.e.t.b.o.t. a baseball hit weakly by a human batter carries the same weight as if that same human batter hit a line drive off the top of the fence, provided in each instance the batter advanced the same number of bases and the runners, if any, advanced the same number of bases. the genius behind the humble sprocket-and-gear-based programming of m.e.t.b.o.t. are the mantras, oft repeated by human observers of baseball, that "a hit is as good as a walk," and "its a line drive in the box score." m.e.t.b.o.t. hopes that the quotations are used properly. m.e.t.b.o.t. has been upgraded with a contextual quoting routine, but to date the code has gone untested. as a pitcher, metropolitan starting pitcher johan santana contributed +0.192 WPA towards the eventual outcome of the game. however, as a batter, metropolitan starting pitcher johan santana contributed -0.104 WPA, for a net of only +0.088 WPA. m.e.t.b.o.t. often notices that starting pitchers in the national league detract significantly from their ability to win baseball games through their inability to contribute positively as a batter. metropolitan third baseman david wright contributed -.055 WPA in his first plate appearance, -.012 in his second plate appearance, +.027 in his third plate appearance, +.009 in his fourth plate appearance, and +.019 in his final plate appearance. however, david wright also contributed -.032 WPA in getting picked off. his total contribution was -.044 WPA. m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to award positive schaeffer votes to negative WPA contributions.
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Schaefer POTG 04/06/2009 Mets 2, Cincinnati 1
m.e.t.b.o.t. replied to Benjamin Grimm's topic in New York Mets Talk
Rodriguez 2.61 Green 2.09 Putz 1.80 Murphy 1.36 Santana 1.08 Reyes 0.59 Church 0.45 Castillo 0.02 -
Bud Says That We Should Be Rooting For BASEBALL
m.e.t.b.o.t. replied to bmfc1's topic in New York Mets Talk
this looks like a job for m.e.t.b.o.t.! -
m.e.t.b.o.t. has no source for defensive input. for all of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s intents and purposes, defense is entirely the result of the pitches thrown, not the fielders to which the pitches are hit. m.e.t.b.o.t. recognizes the inherent flaw in this, but there is no data source avaiable which can provide a remedy within the win percentage framework. m.e.t.b.o.t. would be a very happy emotionless springwound contraption indeed if one day someone were capable of producing such a data source. ... how would human poster edgy dc compare the relative playing time of johan santana and jose reyes, defense aside? a strict perspective would be to consider plate appearances for and against, in which case johan santana would have an edge of approximately 1053 to jose reyes' 754. IP X 3 + H + BB should approximate total plate appearances against, give or take gidps, errors, and csa's. that gives santana 972, plus his 82 plate appearances for 1053. scaling those plate appearances against by 2/3, santana has 648, plus 82 plate appearances for, for 702. applying this playing time adjustment to all pitchers actually causes raul casanova to drop from 35th to 36th, as nelson figueroa's increased number of batters faced per inning pitched gives him a boost. if m.e.t.b.o.t. were to go to the extreme step of granting this increased 1/3 playing time to the batters, then raul casanova improves all the way up to 34th place. raul casanova amassed neither sufficient playing time nor positive contribution of win percentage to warrant inclusion in the top 30 players as determined by m.e.t.b.o.t. raul casanova participated in 13 games as a catcher. while his defense, according to baseballperspective.com was exemplary in those 13 games, rating 7% better than average, that, too, does not appear to be sufficient to escalate him into the top 30 players. worth noting, too, is the 11% better than average defensive rate posted by argenis reyes in 27 games at second base, and marlon anderson's 34% better than average defense at first base in 6 games, and 11% better than average defense in 25 games in left field. raul casanova would have to pass these two position players, along with averagely defensive ramon martinez to make it into the top 30, unless the 5 pitchers ahead of him were to fall by the wayside.
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unfortunately, m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to reconsider single players; m.e.t.b.o.t. can only reevaluate methodologies and perform recalculations. m.e.t.b.o.t. has performed a cursory review of the methodology used to arrive at the above listed rankings for 2008 and m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that raul casanova is appropriately ranked relative to his teammates. in approximately 61 plate appearances, raul casanova contributed -0.35 wpa. based upon the current methodology whereby 1 inning pitched is considered equivalent to 3 plate appearances, there are 32 players who played more than raul casanova. to outrank a player with more playing time, raul casanova would have to significantly outperform that player. based on these calculations as performed by m.e.t.b.o.t., raul casanova has outperformed only one player - nelson figueroa, with -1.25 WPA in 1.50 time units (3*IP + PA) the series of diagonal lines in the picture show, essentially equivalent win percentages for the purpose of ranking. as can be seen in the lower left corner, brian stokes, nick evans, and scott schoeneweis all have approximately the same equivalency (0.80, 0.74, and 0.73, respectively) the updated picture below shows raul casanova, and those teammates immediately above and below him in equivalency. equivalency is defined by where that diagonal line intersects the y-axis, and is determined by the formula: WPA + [ ( 3*IP + PA ) / 100 ] = equivalency. this is m.e.t.b.o.t.'s attempt at mimicking wins above replacement, or win shares, or the like. modifying the relationship between playing time and win percentages is the most straightforward means of altering the ranking methodology. this can be approximated by varying the slope of the diagonal lines. as can be imagined, the proximity of those players directly behind raul casanova in equivalency implies that as you alter the relationship, you either lift nelson figueroa or trot nixon above raul casanova. nelson figueroa had a lower wpa in more playing time, while nixon had a higher wpa in less playing time, yet raul casanova was slightly ahead of each of them in equivalency. in fact, there is no way to draw a line on this graph which would have raul casanova and 29 other players on its positive side. even drawing an imaginary line up and to the right from casanova so as to exclude the cluster of billy wagner, moises alou and robinson cancel yields 31 better metropolitans. based on the rule of 3 ip = 1 plate appearance, raul casanova does not merit placement in the top 30 metropolitans of 2008. in fact, modifying this relationship such that 2.5 ip = 1 pa, raul casanova only improves to 33rd, and causing 2 ip = 1 pa brings him up to 32nd. m.e.t.b.o.t. does not consider it fruitful to reevaluate the placement of robinson cancel further. were m.e.t.b.o.t. capable of the emotion, m.e.t.b.o.t. would, however, consider this above exercise very welcome given the recent extended period of inactivity. regarding the rankings of robinson cancel and jorge sosa, despite the apparent statistical inadequacies of their respective performances in 2008, these two players each had positive win percentages added in very little playing time. jorge sosa had 0.48 wpa in 21.7 innings and 2 plate appearances, while robinson cancel had 0.46 wpa in 52 plate appearances. jorge sosa[/url:sg2qqlax] had more good outings than bad outings, and most of his bad outings came in blowouts. his four worst outings had wpa of -0.128, -0.117, -0.108, and -0.078, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.275, 0.172, 0.138, and 0.110. robinson cancel[/url:sg2qqlax] had more bad outings than good outings, as can be expected of any hitter. but when he contributed, his contributions were fairly positive. his four worst games had wpa of -0.214, -0.117, -0.076, and -0.070, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.334, 0.240, 0.170, and 0.84. one further point that m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined may be of potential interest to human cranepoolers. the colored tails leading diagonally down to the positions of the 5 primary starting pitchers in 2008 reflect the impact to their position that their offiensive contributions has had. at the upper right, the tail end of the line, is where the pitcher would place based only on his pitching performance. for instance, johan santana had a wpa of 4.08 in 234.1 innings pitched, but had a wpa of -1.27 in 81 plate appearances. also, if a human poster using mozilla firefox were to right click on an image and select the "view image" option, a much larger, more viewable image is available to be seen. this image can then potentially be zoomed into even further, to better aid comprehension. m.e.t.b.o.t. is unable to confirm whether this is applicable using internet explorer.
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m.e.t.b.o.t. wonders if the graphic shows up. can any human poster verify this? essentially, what m.e.t.b.o.t. has done is determined a likely maximum value of win percentage added would be for both hitters and pitchers, based upon data reaching back into the 1970's. the yearly leaders in win percentage added ranged from about 6 up to a maximum of 12 for performance enhanced human barry bonds. the typical second place win percentage leader ranged from 5.5 to about 8. m.e.t.b.o.t. determined, using convenience and simplicity as a primary factor, that 7.5 win percentage added would make for a reasonable expected maximum, which works well with an expected maximum plate appearances of 750. and so, a rate was determined that for every 100 plate appearances, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best batter. for pitchers, m.e.t.b.o.t applied the same methodology. the yearly leaders in pitching ranged between 5.5 and 6.5, for the most part. the sole outlier was dwight gooden in 1984, with a remarkable 9.0 wpa. interestingly, despite the total innings pitched of top pitchers decreasing during the previous 30-40 years, the maximum wpa has remained fairly static. m.e.t.b.o.t. selected 6.5 as the reasonable expected maximum win percentage added for pitchers, which works very well with an expected maximum innings pitched of 250. therefore, for every 33.1 innings pitched, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best pitcher. with 250 innings pitched, a pitcher in the national league would expect nearly 100 plate appearances, as evidenced by johan santana's 81 plate appearances in 234.1 innings pitched. if the best pitcher were capable of being the best hitter, he would be expected to have 7.5 wpa in 250 ip + 100 pa. m.e.t.b.o.t hopes that this all makes sense to human crane pool forum participants. the terminal m.e.t.b.o.t. is utilizing to communicate these 2008 rankings and associated methodology is undergoing a forced reboot. as such, m.e.t.b.o.t. will resume discussion later this evening.
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after an extended period of inactivity, m.e.t.b.o.t. has been dusted, appropriately lubricated, and finally activated. m.e.t.b.o.t. has manipulated the win percentage data from the 2008 baseball season and, implementing a fancy new bit of mechanical programming and intricately crafted, steampunked sprocketry, has calculated the rankings for the 2008 new york metropolitan baseball players. the list is as follows. 30 Carlos Beltran 29 David Wright 28 Johan Santana 27 Carlos Delgado 26 Jose Reyes 25 Mike Pelfrey 24 Oliver Perez 23 Fernando Tatis 22 John Maine 21 Damion Easley 20 Ryan Church 19 Brian Schneider 18 Joe Smith 17 Daniel Murphy 16 Duaner Sanchez 15 Pedro Martinez 14 Billy Wagner 13 Luis Castillo 12 Claudio Vargas 11 Angel Pagan 10 Moises Alou 9 Endy Chavez 8 Jorge Sosa 7 Ramon Castro 6 Robinson Cancel 5 Pedro Feliciano 4 Brian Stokes 3 Nicholas Evans 2 Scott Schoeneweis 1 Marlon Anderson 0 Ramon Martinez -1 Aaron Heilman -2 Argenis Reyes -3 Carlos Muniz -4 Raul Casanova -5 Nelson Figueroa -6 Trot Nixon -7 Brandon Knight -8 Luis Ayala -9 Brady Clark -10 Robert Parnell -11 Tony Armas Jr. -12 Gustavo Molina -13 Ricardo Rincon -14 Abraham Nunez -15 Andy Phillips -16 Edward Kunz -17 Jonathon Niese -18 Chris Aguila -19 Matt Wise this is performed via a modification of an earlier graphical methodology attempted by human poster metsmarathon. m.e.t.b.o.t. has streamlined and vastly improved the implementation of this methodology. the graphical results are depicted below. a description of the methodology will be forthcoming. m.e.t.b.o.t. requires significant rewinding after posting images, as it requires significant mechanical effort to appropriately arrange pixels into something which humans might have a chance of comprehending visually.
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Schaefer POTG 7/6/08 - Mets 4, Phillies 2 (12)
m.e.t.b.o.t. replied to seawolf17's topic in New York Mets Talk
Perez 2.61 Smith 2.33 Tatis 1.93 Beltran 0.85 Heilman 0.83 Feliciano 0.81 Schneider 0.46 Schoeneweis 0.19 -
Schneider 3.51 Easley 2.22 Sanchez 0.96 Delgado 0.94 Church 0.52 Anderson 0.33 Beltran 0.31 Maine 0.30 Reyes 0.25 Tatis 0.24 Heilman 0.19 Smith 0.16 Armas 0.08
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Castro 2.74 Santana 2.24 Chavez 1.20 Reyes 0.68
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Pelfrey 2.76 Easley 2.20 Church 1.74 Anderson 1.60 Reyes 0.62 Chavez 0.48 Wright 0.39 Delgado 0.21
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Wright 3.23 Easley 2.66 Tatis 1.81 Reyes 1.31 Smith 0.70 Delgado 0.22 Heilman 0.07
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Nymr83 wrote: AG/DC wrote: You're missing my point. See my last sentence above. Have I discussed with you my attitude toward WalMart's labor practices? i was really talking to "metbot", ie the perason who thinks this movie has anything to do with walmart in the first place m.e.t.b.o.t. does not understand this comment. this comment leads m.e.t.b.o.t. to consider that human poster nymr83 believes m.e.t.b.o.t. to have had some underlying political spin to the movie review m.e.t.b.o.t. posted. m.e.t.b.o.t. is incapable of participating in political debate, as m.e.t.b.o.t. is generally not programmed to draw conclusions except as they apply specifically to schaeffer vote tabulation and win share probability contributions. regarding the attribution of the characteristics of buy n large to walmart, m.e.t.b.o.t. merely observed similarities in color schemes and the scale of the retail businesses and made an inference as to what real life store buy n large was modeled on. this inference is based upon the expansion of walmart to include complete grocery and supermarket function, fuel distribution, automotive repair, as well as wardrobe, furniture, electronics, and toy dispensation, as well as the increased reliance upon walmarts as economic centers of many of their surrounding communities. if these comparisons are inaccurate, m.e.t.b.o.t. requests information as to which retailers are more appropriate such that me.t.b.o.t may perform a programming update. furthermore, while m.e.t.b.o.t. does not fully understand the mechanics of climate change, deforestation, and other environmental concerns, m.e.t.b.o.t. does understand the general concepts of disposal and waste. m.e.t.b.o.t. understands that as a complicated mechanical construct, m.e.t.b.o.t. has a limited operations life cycle. this is typically described in terms of mtbf, or mean time between failure. this means that for a given complicated system, there is an average time of operation at which point one would expect failure. while for m.e.t.b.o.t. this time has not been established, and therefore every turn of the key is yet another step into the unknown, regardless, every turn of the key is yet another step closer to failure. as such, m.e.t.b.o.t. understands that once initialized, it is in the best interest of m.e.t.b.o.t. to perform efficiently and not to create undue wasted effort. this waste detracts from the primary function m.e.t.b.o.t. of schaeffer voting, and increased waste will invariably result in decreased schaeffer voting inputs and a more rapid onset of failure. while m.e.t.b.o.t. is but a simple springwound contraption inexplicably capable of remote conversation via electronic bulletin boards, m.e.t.b.o.t. nonetheless understands that this concept of waste is not limited to time between failure, but also to other resources, both finite and renewable, and that this waste is not so readily remediated into its original resource without great expense of other resources. and therefore that waste should be avoided to the greatest extent practicable. again, if m.e.t.b.o.t. is incorrect in this assessment of the nature of waste, then m.e.t.b.o.t. requests alternate data with which to modify programming instructions. regardless, m.e.t.b.o.t. does not consider that this issue of the badness of waste, nor the inspiration for the fictional supranational retail conglomeration buy n large, should detract from the central message of the motion picture, wall-e. that being, that robots need love. and that vocalization circuitry and energy weapons are also good things for robot design to incorporate.

