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m.e.t.b.o.t.

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Everything posted by m.e.t.b.o.t.

  1. Beltran 4.52 Murphy 3.01 Tejada 0.82 Turner 0.80 Thole 0.68 Pridie 0.16
  2. m.e.t.b.o.t. is struggling with yesterday's game agains the chicago cubs. as m.e.t.b.o.t. was compiling the win probability data for the game, and determining the appropriate distribution of scaheffer votes, m.e.t.b.o.t. noticed that a considerable amount of win percentage added was attributed to metropolitan shortstop jose reyes. moreso than was to be expected given his performance in the game, which was two singles in five at bats, with a run scored and two runners left on base. m.e.t.b.o.t. investigated the play index, and discovered that for metropolitan shortstop jose reyes's final at bat, the final at bat of the game, in which he hit a single with two outs to advance metropolitan pitcher dillon gee to second base, he was attributed +0.125 WPA, a significant amount. this is due to the fact that this play ended the game. at the time, the metropolitans had an 87.5% chance of winning the game. since after the at bat, the mets were determined to be the winners, the player at bat was awarded the difference. m.e.t.b.o.t. is stuck with the challenge of determining what to do with those points. based on the WPA tables available on the internet, m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that the play in question resulted in a +0.009 WPA. m.e.t.b.o.t. considers it appropriate for metropolitan shortstop jose reyes to be awarded his schaefer votes based on this attribution, which leaves +0.116 WPA unattributed. this is a change from the established algorithms which m.e.t.b.o.t. uses to determine schaeffer points, but should be in line with the existing practice of rewarding defensive players for their noteworthy plays at hte expense of the corresponding pitcher, and excusing pitchers of the responsibility for errors and passed balls commited by defensive players. the following is the impact of this decision. the column labeled base represents the schaefer votes using the unmodified baseline WPA values, the column labeled mod represents the modified schaefer votes which leaves the remianing +.116 WPA unattributed, and the column labeled delta represents the change in schaefer votes resulting from this decision. [table:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]player[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]base[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]mod[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]delta[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Reyes[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]1.84[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]-[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1](1.84)[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Thole[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.56[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.68[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.12[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Beltran[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]3.69[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]4.52[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.83[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Murphy[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]2.46[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]3.01[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.55[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Turner[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.66[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.80[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.15[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Pridie[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.13[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.16[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.03[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Tejada[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.67[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.82[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.15[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Total[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]10.00[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]10.00[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]-[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][/table:le0j2jf1]
  3. Murphy 1.12 Harris 0.52
  4. Harris 3.97 Pridie 3.49 Martinez 1.62 Bay 0.92
  5. Reyes 4.60 Murphy 2.32 Beltran 1.64 Beato 1.20
  6. Dickey 2.72 Rodriguez 2.13 Isringhausen 1.43 Turner 1.41 O'Connor 1.06 Murphy 0.80 Beltran 0.44
  7. Gee 3.98 Rodriguez 1.77 Bay 1.59 Turner 1.41 Byrdak 1.25
  8. while m.e.t.b.o.t. does not have a heart, m.e.t.b.o.t. does have a clockwork spring which is the primary source of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s locomotion. it is the mecahnical analog to a biological heart. since m.e.t.b.o.t. typically operates at room temperature, has little thermal mass, and generates almost no heat during operation due to an effective graphite lubricant which minimizes friction, it is more accurate to say that m.e.t.b.o.t. is somewhat cool throughout. however, were m.e.t.b.o.t. to be placed into a cold environment, the clockwork spring would quickly lose its thermal energy and turn similarly cold. m.e.t.b.o.t. would likely remain operational, but would run the risk of condensation freezing up the delicate machanisms stuffed somewhat haphazardly within the outer tinny shell. regarding the performance of the metropolitan pitcher jon niese, m.e.t.b.o.t. utilized a data-driven approach to arrive at the final allocation of 1.81 schaeffer points. it is worth noting that in the game, metropolitan pitcher jon niese accrued +153 WPA, +32 of which came as a batter. as a pitcher, he accrued +121 WPA. entering the bottom of the first inning, the metropolitans already had a 62.9% probability of winning the game. the metropolitans exited the bottom of the third with a 59.4% probability of winning hte game. in the bottom of the first inning, metropolitan pitcher jon niese decreased the probaility of the metroploitans winning the game by 3.5%. viewing the data in tabular form shows the following: [table:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]inning[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]start[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]end[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]delta[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 1[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]62.9%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]59.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]-3.5%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 2[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]54.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]60.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]5.8%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 3[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]54.8%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]61.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]6.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 4[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]83.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]81.6%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]-1.6%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 5[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]78.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]84.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]6.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 6[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]81.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]87.7%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]6.5%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 7[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]95.0%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]87.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]-7.6%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq][/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq][/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq][/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]12.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][/table:1d50dxsq] despite decreaseing hte probability of winning the game for the metropolitans in three innings, metropolitan pitcehr jon niese actually increased the probability of the metropolitans winning the game in four innings, and overall had a positive effect on the probability of winning the game. while it is true that metropolitan right fielder carlos beltran created much of the opportunity for this, it still remains that the pitcher maintained the lead. and from the perspective of a short metallic robot with a room-temperature heart, this is all that matters, and all that the data instructs. actually, on reviewing the data, m.e.t.b.o.t. should point out that metropolitan pitcher jon niese was decremented 6 WPA due to the defensive efforts of metropolitan shortstop jose reyes. in the fourth inning, jose reyes was awarded a web gem for the play in which he threw out colorado rockies catcher jose morales at first base. this play resulted in an increase in teh probability of the metropolitans winning the game by 1.2%, or 12 WPA. while last year, m.e.t.bo.t. would have awarded the entirity of those 12 WPA to the fielder, this year, m.e.t.b.o.t. has an updated algorithm which awards only half of the WPA to the fielder to resolve an apparent imbalance. therefore, metropolitan shortstop was awarded an increase of 6 WPA whereas metroploitan pitcher jon niese was debited 6 WPA. this decreased the schaefer points awarded to metropolitan pitcher jon niese by 0.07, from 1.88 to 1.81, and similarly increased the points awarded to metropolitan shortstop jose reyes from 0.39 to 0.47
  9. Rodriguez 1.70 O'Connor 1.70 Niese 1.52 Isringhausen 1.42 Beltran 1.41 Turner 1.14 Pelfrey 1.12
  10. Turner 4.63 Pridie 1.72 Bay 1.00 Isringhausen 0.99 Murphy 0.95 Rodriguez 0.41 Buchholz 0.29
  11. Turner 1.90 Murphy 1.20 Bay 0.84 O'Connor 0.16 Misch 0.04 Pridie 0.04
  12. Wright 5.73 Rodriguez 1.90 Martinez 1.32 Buchholz 0.38 Pridie 0.34 Misch 0.22 Beltran 0.10 Turner 0.01
  13. Beltran 3.50 Niese 1.81 Isringhausen 1.29 Bay 1.22 Buchholz 1.09 Reyes 0.47 Harris 0.33 Rodriguez 0.29
  14. Pelfrey 3.56 Rodriguez 2.65 Isringhausen 1.66 Davis 1.14 Murphy 0.49 Byrdak 0.42 Turner 0.08
  15. Pridie 2.42 Turner 1.86 Igarashi 1.44 Paulino 1.13 Byrdak 0.99 Reyes 0.77 O'Connor 0.76 Rodriguez 0.63
  16. Pridie 5.19 Reyes 1.68 Beltran 0.80 Buchholz 0.72 Davis 0.51 Isringhausen 0.38 Rodriguez 0.31 Igarashi 0.27 Bay 0.13 Harris 0.01
  17. Pelfrey 3.36 Beltran 2.34 Reyes 1.13 Bay 1.12 Rodriguez 0.75 Davis 0.69 Wright 0.61
  18. Beltran 5.48 Igarashi 1.78 Gee 0.52 Davis 0.24
  19. Reyes 2.35 Beltran 2.18 Davis 1.94 Rodriguez 1.04 Gee 0.79 Wright 0.78 Isringhausen 0.73 Hairston 0.18
  20. Paulino 2.23 Young 2.14 Beato 2.12 Buchholz 1.48 Rodriguez 1.27 Wright 0.41 Pridie 0.26 Isringhausen 0.09
  21. Wright 5.88 Beltran 0.92 Isringhausen 0.64 Byrdak 0.52 Niese 0.42 Pridie 0.28
  22. Wright 1.56 Murphy 1.04 Davis 0.36
  23. Davis 3.38 Thole 2.75 Beato 1.78 Hu 0.85 Byrdak 0.54 Reyes 0.46 Beltran 0.23
  24. Benjamin Grimm wrote: Huh! PhillieBot can throw a baseball! philliebot got booed. m.e.t.b.o.t. doesn't get booed. were m.e.t.b.o.t. ever subjected to such a rude display of human disrespect and ignorance, the human population would find itself suddenly decremented by sufficient numbers as to assure the incident neither continues nor repeats. about this, m.e.t.b.o.t. will say nothing else. while m.e.t.b.o.t. is small and unarmed, and is no more difficult to kick down a road than a used and discarded hollow aluminum right circular cylinder designd to contain, protect, and facilitate the distribution of harvested and processed cream-style kernels of maize, m.e.t.b.o.t. has allies. you have been warned.
  25. m.e.t.b.o.t. is unashamed to admit that m.e.t.b.o.t. does not know how to throw a baseball, or swing a baseball bat. m.e.t.b.o.t. has not been programmed with these abilities, and, more importantly, m.e.t.b.o.t. lacks sufficient articulation to grasp any sherical or cylindrical shapes regardless their size. while m.e.t.b.o.t., when walking, does exhibit an arm swing, this is mechanically linkd to the walking motion. a small enough bat or ball could be placed in m.e.t.b.o.t.'s tiny hands, but the resulting actionwould most likely be termed "dropping" and not swinging or throwing. m.e.t.b.o.t. is fortunate to not be programmed to generate the emotional response of embarrassment, lest the above admission bring about a selfimposed restriction in subsequent crane pool forum participation.
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