metsmarathon

Centerfield, because if the king isn’t the franchise, then I don’t know who is… Who is the Tom Seaver of the 2025 Mets?

Judiciously using my brain I know that there’s a position adjustment In the score. Like, the difference between a shortstop and a firstbaseman is about 200 points. Between a DH and 1b is 14 points. So yeah, it’s amazing how often players who play the same position come up as similar to each other. And with that, I know all that I need to know about the remainder of this conversation. It’s about as useful as looking to the sim scores to predict Pete’s future career based on Nate Colbert.

a few years back, Pete’s most similar player was shohei. That shohei appeared on Pete’s list wasnt really my point. Rather it was an entry into my next point. Right now, if you look, shoheis most similar batter is ryan howard. Wait. Actually, his most similar overall is Pete. His most similar thru age 29 is Ryan Howard. And some other big lumbering sluggers are all over the list. In what way are shoei and Pete and Ryan Howard at all similar, other than that when you add up their homers and doubles and triples etc you get around the same numbers? What examples do you have of success using sim scores to predict player performance, other than as a reminder that aging curves exist?

Getting into WAR, Pete doesn't look good at all. Actually I was surprised by how little WAR he got in 2025 with his 38 HRs and league-leading 41 doubles: 3.4. That's pretty piddling, considering. Bret Baty came in at 3.1, in hundreds of fewer plate appearances. BTW, is the 3.4 you cite as the first prediction a prediction or a description of his 2025? Those other numbers look pretty sad. And I don't understand why you're clinging to McGwire as a good thing for Pete. Since he was juiced (and achieved some big numbers in his thirties), doesn't that suggest that Pete would require massive injections of steroids (which he will not be able to get) in order to match McGwire's performance in his thirties? Sorry. I keep thinking I’m being clear, when clearly I am not. 3.4 WAR was the zips projection at the end of 2024 for Pete’s fWAR in 2025. He actually had 3.6. Brett Naty had 2.3. Bbref has different numbers. 3.4 war for Pete, and 3.1 for Baty. They REaLLy like his fielding over there. But I tend to mostly use FanGraphs war. I don’t have the newly updated projections that account for Pete’s pretty good 2025, but expect them to tick slightly higher. Once they are created and released by the guy who makes them. I’m not hanging my hat on any Big Mac similarity. I’m rejecting similarity scores altogether. Unless you’re really going to tell me that shohei Ohtani is destined to age like Ryan Howard because when you add up the number of doubles and triples and homers and other stuff you get kinda the same number. Similarity scores are a somewhat fun way to look at what kind of player a guy WAS. They have very limited value in looking at what kind of player a guy WILL BE.

Why would you look at similar batters through age 29? Pete's turning 31 in a few weeks. As to McGwire, are you under the assumption that Pete's getting away with taking steroids? I'm convinced he's not. Your table has data comparing what Pete had done through his age 29 season, to what other players had done in their entire careers. Mine was at least comparing apples to apples. As to McGwire, I’m just saying clean Pete is most similar to dirty Mac, based on that chart. And if that’s a problem, hey, I’m not the one using similarity scores to try to make a point.

Oh. Actually FanGraphs has done the job for us. There’s a projection for his next five years, per Zips. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-ahead-at-this-offseasons-opt-out-candidates/ With a table and everything. It predicts the following war totals: 3.4, 2.7, 1.8, 1.2, 0.7 The bottom line is that yes, there’s concern about how a bat-first righty 1b will age, but he’ll do better in free agency this year than last, and could get into the low 100M contract strata.

Also, it’s clear that you’re using data that’s already a year old. (We both are) it doesn’t include his age 30 season, which was pretty good, and likely changes some of the similarities. Expect Colbert to drop off, probably. If you want to look at freely available projections go over to FanGraphs and peep their zips projections. Also a year out of date, but much more predictive value. And they really underestimated Pete’s age 30 season. 26 doubles, 32 homers, 242/335/466 slashes. Even with that, Zips, last year, projected Pete to net 2.2 and 1.6 war in his ages 31 and 32 seasons, with 30 and 26 homers respectively. I’d expect those numbers to go up when they re-run it. A decline ahead, sure, but not quite so disastrously. Yes it could all go wrong and age could catch him in a hurry. It gets us all if we’re lucky. But you’re using the wrong tools in the wrong way to asses how risky bringing Pete back truly is.

Hold up. Wait. You’re looking at the similar batters table, and NOT the similar batters through age 29 table?! (I guess bbref doesn’t update the charts until the offseason) Mark McGwire (966.0) Matt Olson (958.3) Chris Davis (948.2) Cecil Fielder (942.8) Richie Sexson (936.2) Glenn Davis (914.9) Tony Clark (904.7) Ryan Howard (904.0) Tino Martinez (902.4) Nate Colbert (902.2) Sure, many of the same names show up, but damn if that ain’t a rosier picture! McGwire went on to do some things (asterisk) and Olson is doing pretty well. But look. I’m gonna throw a whole lot of cold water all over this exercise. A name popped up that intrigued me, looking at these sim scores. I hope this name causes you yourself to question this approach as well. At age 26, Pete’s lost similar batters table was shohei ****ing Ohtani. Would you think them to be remotely similar players, pitching aside - of course. Sho’s current list of similar hitter includes the following names: Ryan Howard (921.5) Fred McGriff (912.4) * David Ortiz (910.3) * Carlos Delgado (905.0) Willie McCovey (903.0) * Matt Olson (902.5) Richie Sexson (901.2) Mo Vaughn (900.8) Pete Alonso (888.7) Albert Belle (878.5) Now. You’re telling me that the same tool you’re using to say, woah, Pete’s destined to break down just like these guys, is also telling you that shoei is going to turn into an overweight black guy with really bad knees. There ain’t no similarity between sho-time and David ortiz, Ryan Howard, Albert belle, or mo Vaughn, other than that if you add up all their cumulative stats you end up with about the same numbers. It’s a curiosity at best, that can maybe be useful in seeing what other guys had similar production through their careers. Here’s the explanation of how they get it: There’s nothing predictive in ANY of that. But, yeesh. Sorry about Ohtani. Looks like we dodged a bullet there.

I would surmise that similarity scores on bbref have very little predictability value.

This is really the first time the pitching plan collapsed so spectacularly. Is it bad luck or bad design, at least as far as hefners influence matters? I think the biggest problem is and has often been a ack of a situational hitting approach. Too often players swinging for the downs (and missing) when contact will do. That would tend to explain much of our performance in close and late games. Fix that, and you fix a lot.

You know what they say… expect the Mets.

But I do think that a lot of the answer is, “you’re better than this” Because the offense looks like it’s trying too hard, and the pitching staff too. So if I were Mendoza I’d say to the guys, “who are you when you’re at your best? Be that guy. Don’t try to hit the ball outta the damn park each time - just be a good hitter who’s aggressive on his pitches, and we’ll start string hits and runs together, instead of getting our own selves out. And pitchers, throw the ball like you mean it, instead of tying to be cute. Be the big leaguers you are. Relax, have fun, and go win some ****ing games.”

What’s your message to this team? What do you tell them? How do you break them out of this funk? Obviously, “stop sucking” but more specifically, what do you think the team needs to hear? It’s all up to you!

Let me see that tong

Baty’s OPS+ is higher than Vientos’ at 112 to 105 And Baty has been the better defensive player by about 11-12 runs or so according to both bbref FanGraphs. So much so that vientos defense negates his offense, at least using bbref’s calculations. FanGraphs has a slightly different calculation, with Baty having the war edge 1.9 to 0.5 But in either case, the bulk of the difference is defense.

Winner winner chicken dinner. That’s ****ing brilliant!

I too like the idea but not the execution. But cmon… oh noes there’s a ballpark race - how can this be in a big serious important city like New York!? Hey, old guys! How long have we had various incarnations of computer animated video races like the delta dash or whatever else, up on the scoreboard? Have you been ****ing all over that, too, for the past 20, 30 years? **** I can’t even remember how long ago they started. Jeezus alooo! What a bunch of old fussy ruddies. Sorry. Auto correct. What a bunch of old fuddy-duddies! My only complaint is that the costumes are a miss, in that they look like they were each designed and built by a different committee of non-artists. There’s no stylistic unity across them. They’re gonna be awkward and hilarious and awesome trundling around the warning track, careening to and fro. I love the idea of borough-authentic foodstuffs - it’s where I thought they were going with the pizza - but these are still pretty fun. Remember fun!? It’s ****ing baseball, not a funeral for a kid who drowned saving a puppy from a frozen lake.

1. What will the Mets' record be? 96-66 2. Predict the NL East standings from 1 to 5: nym phi atl was Fla 3. Will the Mets make the playoffs (if so, as the division champ or 1st, 2nd, or 3rd WC)? Division 4. If so, how far will they go? World Series 5. Who will be the World Champion? Mets 6. Number of regular season HRs for Pete Alonso: 47 7. Who will be on the cover of the 2025 winner of the Tabloid Cover Derby? Juan Soto

Yay!

you want a dark horse? i'll give you a dark horse. jonathon frickin' pintaro, a 27-year old who the mets signed last june out of the frickin' pioneer league, where he was posting a 4.40 ERA for the... uh... [checks notes...] frickin' glacier mother-fricking range riders. the range riders! is that even a real team?! here's what fangraphs has to say about hte guy: yeah, that's a dark horse right there. let's go!

july 27

****ing hell. That took too long. Can we just not do this again next year…?

When Boris Becker speaks, you listen.

In. We’ll see about the draft.

Speculation is that the deal presented by Boras to the Mets is similar to that of Cody Bellinger. In addition to having opt-outs after every year, that contract provides that the club is responsible for buyouts if the player elects to leave. Bellinger's deal contained a provision that if he opted out after 2024, the club owed him an additional $2.5M. If Bellinger opts out after 2025, the player is owed an additional $5M. It's not hard to see why Cohen would have an issue with that kind of structure. It's mind-boggling to have to pay a buyout when the player elects to leave. And not surprisingly, the Cubs found themselves having to unload that contract this winter. Again, this is just speculation, but if that's true, I can see the Mets holding firm and refusing to accept that. On the other hand, if Boras removes that "pay to leave" feature, I can see public pressure swinging back to Pete's side to give in more on the AAV. Maybe I'm an idiot, but I'm still optimistic. I think Cohen's visible frustration yesterday shows how much he wants Pete back. And I think Boras' immediate response suggests that Cohen's words had the intended effect. I think they're still each other's best option. Jeez. If that’s the structure then yeah, I can see why it would not be to the teams best interest. I mean I can kinda talk myself into it, from boras’ side. Like, hey, if he had a good enough year that he’s going to want to retry free agency you probably got more value out of the one year… but still, it’s pretty icky.