metsmarathon

Hold up. Wait. You’re looking at the similar batters table, and NOT the similar batters through age 29 table?! (I guess bbref doesn’t update the charts until the offseason) Mark McGwire (966.0) Matt Olson (958.3) Chris Davis (948.2) Cecil Fielder (942.8) Richie Sexson (936.2) Glenn Davis (914.9) Tony Clark (904.7) Ryan Howard (904.0) Tino Martinez (902.4) Nate Colbert (902.2) Sure, many of the same names show up, but damn if that ain’t a rosier picture! McGwire went on to do some things (asterisk) and Olson is doing pretty well. But look. I’m gonna throw a whole lot of cold water all over this exercise. A name popped up that intrigued me, looking at these sim scores. I hope this name causes you yourself to question this approach as well. At age 26, Pete’s lost similar batters table was shohei ****ing Ohtani. Would you think them to be remotely similar players, pitching aside - of course. Sho’s current list of similar hitter includes the following names: Ryan Howard (921.5) Fred McGriff (912.4) * David Ortiz (910.3) * Carlos Delgado (905.0) Willie McCovey (903.0) * Matt Olson (902.5) Richie Sexson (901.2) Mo Vaughn (900.8) Pete Alonso (888.7) Albert Belle (878.5) Now. You’re telling me that the same tool you’re using to say, woah, Pete’s destined to break down just like these guys, is also telling you that shoei is going to turn into an overweight black guy with really bad knees. There ain’t no similarity between sho-time and David ortiz, Ryan Howard, Albert belle, or mo Vaughn, other than that if you add up all their cumulative stats you end up with about the same numbers. It’s a curiosity at best, that can maybe be useful in seeing what other guys had similar production through their careers. Here’s the explanation of how they get it: There’s nothing predictive in ANY of that. But, yeesh. Sorry about Ohtani. Looks like we dodged a bullet there.

I would surmise that similarity scores on bbref have very little predictability value.

This is really the first time the pitching plan collapsed so spectacularly. Is it bad luck or bad design, at least as far as hefners influence matters? I think the biggest problem is and has often been a ack of a situational hitting approach. Too often players swinging for the downs (and missing) when contact will do. That would tend to explain much of our performance in close and late games. Fix that, and you fix a lot.

You know what they say… expect the Mets.

But I do think that a lot of the answer is, “you’re better than this” Because the offense looks like it’s trying too hard, and the pitching staff too. So if I were Mendoza I’d say to the guys, “who are you when you’re at your best? Be that guy. Don’t try to hit the ball outta the damn park each time - just be a good hitter who’s aggressive on his pitches, and we’ll start string hits and runs together, instead of getting our own selves out. And pitchers, throw the ball like you mean it, instead of tying to be cute. Be the big leaguers you are. Relax, have fun, and go win some ****ing games.”

What’s your message to this team? What do you tell them? How do you break them out of this funk? Obviously, “stop sucking” but more specifically, what do you think the team needs to hear? It’s all up to you!

Let me see that tong

Baty’s OPS+ is higher than Vientos’ at 112 to 105 And Baty has been the better defensive player by about 11-12 runs or so according to both bbref FanGraphs. So much so that vientos defense negates his offense, at least using bbref’s calculations. FanGraphs has a slightly different calculation, with Baty having the war edge 1.9 to 0.5 But in either case, the bulk of the difference is defense.

Winner winner chicken dinner. That’s ****ing brilliant!

I too like the idea but not the execution. But cmon… oh noes there’s a ballpark race - how can this be in a big serious important city like New York!? Hey, old guys! How long have we had various incarnations of computer animated video races like the delta dash or whatever else, up on the scoreboard? Have you been ****ing all over that, too, for the past 20, 30 years? **** I can’t even remember how long ago they started. Jeezus alooo! What a bunch of old fussy ruddies. Sorry. Auto correct. What a bunch of old fuddy-duddies! My only complaint is that the costumes are a miss, in that they look like they were each designed and built by a different committee of non-artists. There’s no stylistic unity across them. They’re gonna be awkward and hilarious and awesome trundling around the warning track, careening to and fro. I love the idea of borough-authentic foodstuffs - it’s where I thought they were going with the pizza - but these are still pretty fun. Remember fun!? It’s ****ing baseball, not a funeral for a kid who drowned saving a puppy from a frozen lake.

1. What will the Mets' record be? 96-66 2. Predict the NL East standings from 1 to 5: nym phi atl was Fla 3. Will the Mets make the playoffs (if so, as the division champ or 1st, 2nd, or 3rd WC)? Division 4. If so, how far will they go? World Series 5. Who will be the World Champion? Mets 6. Number of regular season HRs for Pete Alonso: 47 7. Who will be on the cover of the 2025 winner of the Tabloid Cover Derby? Juan Soto

you want a dark horse? i'll give you a dark horse. jonathon frickin' pintaro, a 27-year old who the mets signed last june out of the frickin' pioneer league, where he was posting a 4.40 ERA for the... uh... [checks notes...] frickin' glacier mother-fricking range riders. the range riders! is that even a real team?! here's what fangraphs has to say about hte guy: yeah, that's a dark horse right there. let's go!

july 27

****ing hell. That took too long. Can we just not do this again next year…?

When Boris Becker speaks, you listen.

Speculation is that the deal presented by Boras to the Mets is similar to that of Cody Bellinger. In addition to having opt-outs after every year, that contract provides that the club is responsible for buyouts if the player elects to leave. Bellinger's deal contained a provision that if he opted out after 2024, the club owed him an additional $2.5M. If Bellinger opts out after 2025, the player is owed an additional $5M. It's not hard to see why Cohen would have an issue with that kind of structure. It's mind-boggling to have to pay a buyout when the player elects to leave. And not surprisingly, the Cubs found themselves having to unload that contract this winter. Again, this is just speculation, but if that's true, I can see the Mets holding firm and refusing to accept that. On the other hand, if Boras removes that "pay to leave" feature, I can see public pressure swinging back to Pete's side to give in more on the AAV. Maybe I'm an idiot, but I'm still optimistic. I think Cohen's visible frustration yesterday shows how much he wants Pete back. And I think Boras' immediate response suggests that Cohen's words had the intended effect. I think they're still each other's best option. Jeez. If that’s the structure then yeah, I can see why it would not be to the teams best interest. I mean I can kinda talk myself into it, from boras’ side. Like, hey, if he had a good enough year that he’s going to want to retry free agency you probably got more value out of the one year… but still, it’s pretty icky.

without doing much analysis, there's no hall of famers on next year's first time ballot, and probably only hamels even sticks around past a first year.

who is the absolute coward who anonymously chose not to vote for ichiro..?!

The contingency is Bregman, who’s caught in the same morass.

Damn. I mean, if you look at FanGraphs value tab, he’s barely a $20M player so perhaps that’s actually fair. I think him in the lineup would some compounding impact above that, especially batting behind Soto. But gosh it’s hard to look at that and then go say pay him $30M. Irrespective of that… I still want him back. $27 for one and see how it goes.

if so, what a colossal failure for both sides to come together.

I believe. I believe. It’s silly, but I believe.

Perhaps a mix of both, most likely. Either way, hell, I’m ok with it.

Please please please please please

i'll be relatively shocked if this isn't what ends up happening.