metsmarathon

I’m still not convinced that stearns isn’t a very smart clever baseball man, who has a plan in mind to make the Mets a perennial top contender. And maybe that plan has names like Imai, and okamoto, and Tyler rogers, and Kyle Tucker. But he’s still a smart clever baseball man with a heart that’s three sizes too small.

Yup You do that for Pete. You do it for Edwin. And when Jeff McNeil comes up for his next contract you push him out the door fast enough that it doesn’t slam on his back, as a courtesy.

i remember running in the woods, in late in the day on september 19th, 2024, and then out of nowhere and with near simultaneity, feeling a thump against my foot, hearing a pop, and seeing the soft cool earth rushing unexpectedly towards me and landing on my side. as i lay there, looking down at my leg, i knew instantly, i'd edwin diazed myself. and the thought that gave me the most strength in that moment, and still does over a year later was that at the time of my injury, that mother****er was out there pitching in the major leagues having returned to the mound less than a year after suffering the same injury in entirely different circumstances. and if he could come back from a torn patellar tendon, and still get major league hitters out in high leverage situations - yes, he'd lost a tick from 2022 and was shaky at times as he learned to trust his repaired and rehabbed knee, then i'd certainly be able to return to running long distances and being a relatively fast dude for my size and age. he was my avatar during the magical 2024 playoff run, and while he didn't know it - how could he possibly know it - every save, every time he got that big out, every time he worked out of a jam, and especially when he demanded to have the ball back in his hand after failing to cover first in the clincher against the braves, he did it for me, to be a model of resilience and recovery and hope and perseverance. and i think it gave my kids that same feeling that dad'll be ok, too. he will always be a part of my life from now on. and i love him for that. it's the most irrational yet perfectly rational take i can offer, and i'm crushed that the mets let him leave.

Now is not the time for nuanced rationalism. I’m cantankerous. If we put together a better team that’s competitive for a long time, I’ll be thrilled. I just won’t be happy about it.

Juan signs are the best signs.

I need multiple rings. I’m ****ing serious. Pete should’ve been a met for life and they chased him away. They seem to’ve alienated Díaz too, and he walked for Pennie’s more. Diaz meant a lot to me personally. The heart and soul of the team is gone, no offense to Lindor, and these were OUR guys. We’d embraced them and loved them and our general manager with his heart three sizes too small discounted all of that (after also doing the same to the heart and soul of last year’s team. Whoever he brings in next will have a long way to go before they are ours, and unfairly so because part of that will be who they are replacing. But that burden is borne the most by stearns. And it may well take multiple rings to lift.

I can be pretty forgiving if there’s a World Series title around these parts. If it’s an 85 win, #6 seed if we get lucky team…not so much. In a vacuum, any one departure would have been fine, but 3 icons leaving in the same offseason is extraordinarily tough to bear, and I agree that it’s not at all clear that factor has been sufficiently considered. Agree. It's World Series or bust. If they don't win it all, none of this will have been worth it. I need a sustained run of World Series wins to slake my bloodthirst this afternoon.

Stearns does know that for a franchise to be successful, the fans need to want to spend money on the team, right?

Anybody know a good pitchfork sharpener? Or is it more fun if it’s rusty and dull?

**** this news. make it go away. go sign pete. and, y'know, more relievers, too.

Love this if as a setup man. Less love if as the closer. Just pour some damned sugar on me already!

I’m also paywalled, but based on the snippets I e read, yeah, that’s what it smacks of. Basically it feels to me like this is a hit piece on the brown guy who the popular white guy they just traded away apparently had some beef about.

Brown guys bad. White guy good. Ugh, We still doin’ this narrative?

Not the strongest ballot. Really have to try hard to justify most of my votes. Beltran, jones, Felix, utley and wright are easy peasy votes. Pedroia and abreu also get gift nods, with an extra-gifty gift to hamels. Pettite and arid can eat a dick. Same with Ryan Braun. Sorry manny, you were ****ing amazing but dirty. Boo.

aw, man i really liked brandon nimmo. granted, he was not good in the outfield last year, and his on base hasn't been where it used to be... and the whispers going around are that he wasn't a fan of lindor... so... i dunno. i think the trade makes the mets a better defensive team, but not necessarily a better hitting-for-contact team... actually, semien's k rate was 17.4 to nimmo's 21.6, so.... hmm... that's actually an improvement. i'm still curious what this means for the bevy of young middle infielders the mets have.... i guess they're not super high on too many of them. or could another shoe be dropping?

Doesn’t the pitching coach factor into any of this…?

Of course the only two players I’ve ever owned a jersey of opt out of their contracts in the same off season. I’m significantly more invested in Diaz staying, despite Pete being one of my most favorite Mets players ever. Pay the man. There’s no Equal, I don’t want no Sweet’n’low, and don’t go bringing that Stevia horseshit around here.

Damn, this really spins my “centerfield is the tom seaver of the crane pool forum” in a harsh new light…

Centerfield, because if the king isn’t the franchise, then I don’t know who is… Who is the Tom Seaver of the 2025 Mets?

Judiciously using my brain I know that there’s a position adjustment In the score. Like, the difference between a shortstop and a firstbaseman is about 200 points. Between a DH and 1b is 14 points. So yeah, it’s amazing how often players who play the same position come up as similar to each other. And with that, I know all that I need to know about the remainder of this conversation. It’s about as useful as looking to the sim scores to predict Pete’s future career based on Nate Colbert.

a few years back, Pete’s most similar player was shohei. That shohei appeared on Pete’s list wasnt really my point. Rather it was an entry into my next point. Right now, if you look, shoheis most similar batter is ryan howard. Wait. Actually, his most similar overall is Pete. His most similar thru age 29 is Ryan Howard. And some other big lumbering sluggers are all over the list. In what way are shoei and Pete and Ryan Howard at all similar, other than that when you add up their homers and doubles and triples etc you get around the same numbers? What examples do you have of success using sim scores to predict player performance, other than as a reminder that aging curves exist?

Getting into WAR, Pete doesn't look good at all. Actually I was surprised by how little WAR he got in 2025 with his 38 HRs and league-leading 41 doubles: 3.4. That's pretty piddling, considering. Bret Baty came in at 3.1, in hundreds of fewer plate appearances. BTW, is the 3.4 you cite as the first prediction a prediction or a description of his 2025? Those other numbers look pretty sad. And I don't understand why you're clinging to McGwire as a good thing for Pete. Since he was juiced (and achieved some big numbers in his thirties), doesn't that suggest that Pete would require massive injections of steroids (which he will not be able to get) in order to match McGwire's performance in his thirties? Sorry. I keep thinking I’m being clear, when clearly I am not. 3.4 WAR was the zips projection at the end of 2024 for Pete’s fWAR in 2025. He actually had 3.6. Brett Naty had 2.3. Bbref has different numbers. 3.4 war for Pete, and 3.1 for Baty. They REaLLy like his fielding over there. But I tend to mostly use FanGraphs war. I don’t have the newly updated projections that account for Pete’s pretty good 2025, but expect them to tick slightly higher. Once they are created and released by the guy who makes them. I’m not hanging my hat on any Big Mac similarity. I’m rejecting similarity scores altogether. Unless you’re really going to tell me that shohei Ohtani is destined to age like Ryan Howard because when you add up the number of doubles and triples and homers and other stuff you get kinda the same number. Similarity scores are a somewhat fun way to look at what kind of player a guy WAS. They have very limited value in looking at what kind of player a guy WILL BE.

Why would you look at similar batters through age 29? Pete's turning 31 in a few weeks. As to McGwire, are you under the assumption that Pete's getting away with taking steroids? I'm convinced he's not. Your table has data comparing what Pete had done through his age 29 season, to what other players had done in their entire careers. Mine was at least comparing apples to apples. As to McGwire, I’m just saying clean Pete is most similar to dirty Mac, based on that chart. And if that’s a problem, hey, I’m not the one using similarity scores to try to make a point.

Oh. Actually FanGraphs has done the job for us. There’s a projection for his next five years, per Zips. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-ahead-at-this-offseasons-opt-out-candidates/ With a table and everything. It predicts the following war totals: 3.4, 2.7, 1.8, 1.2, 0.7 The bottom line is that yes, there’s concern about how a bat-first righty 1b will age, but he’ll do better in free agency this year than last, and could get into the low 100M contract strata.

Also, it’s clear that you’re using data that’s already a year old. (We both are) it doesn’t include his age 30 season, which was pretty good, and likely changes some of the similarities. Expect Colbert to drop off, probably. If you want to look at freely available projections go over to FanGraphs and peep their zips projections. Also a year out of date, but much more predictive value. And they really underestimated Pete’s age 30 season. 26 doubles, 32 homers, 242/335/466 slashes. Even with that, Zips, last year, projected Pete to net 2.2 and 1.6 war in his ages 31 and 32 seasons, with 30 and 26 homers respectively. I’d expect those numbers to go up when they re-run it. A decline ahead, sure, but not quite so disastrously. Yes it could all go wrong and age could catch him in a hurry. It gets us all if we’re lucky. But you’re using the wrong tools in the wrong way to asses how risky bringing Pete back truly is.