metsmarathon

jeez, jose's only the fourth best player in the majors this year so far (per fangraphs' WAR, tied with howie kendrick and curtis granderson at 2.9).

oh. this. meh.

wtf is the mo zone anyways?

batmagadanleadoff wrote: metsmarathon wrote: gee. you'd think it would be possible to look at those 61 homers that were his at shea in its first 32 games of 2008 and determine whether or not they would have cleared the fences of citi field (wind and weather and what not all being equal), and likewise for the citi homers versus shea, to determine/infer just how many home runs, approximately, the field is robbing us of. As the sample size grows (currently at 2 1/3 seasons) you should be able to determine Citi Field's HR effect by simply looking at the totals (323 road, 283 home) -- idiosyncracies about specific HR's clearing that stadium but not this one should smooth out. metsmarathon wrote: also, fuck, man. our offense is shit this year, home or away. especially without wright, davis, and pagan for extended stretches, and jason bay who probably couldn't hit a home run in a little league field. that should inherently depress the numbers a bit, shouldn't it? This shouldn't effect the data. If the Mets offense sucks, then it should suck (HR-wise) both on the road and at home. It's the same team, road and home. sorry, i was focusing more on the shea vs citi thing at the bottom. the stadium to date data suggests that cit field depresses home run rates by 13ish percent. that's a big number, i suppose, but really, it means that a hitter who would have hit, say, 36 homers in a fair environment would hit 34 homers playing half his games in an unfair environemnt such as ours. 36 homers, 18 at home. 18 - (18x13%) = 18 - 2.34 = 2ish. 2-3 homers we should expect citifield to be robbing power hitters of, based on the home/road comparison. fuck you jason bay, and fuck you too david wright, for letting this stadium get inside your fucking head so. damned. much. the reason i'd like to look at the would they clear the fence thing is to strip from the discussion the mental games the stadium seems to play with players, especially our own. i'm sure i could independently investigate it; i'm just surprised that with all of the hullabaloo, nobody has.

i'd like to think the best way he can get 3000 is for it to be a grossly botched safe call. or if he gets thrown out trying to leg it into a double, or taking a wide turn. something like that.

gee. you'd think it would be possible to look at those 61 homers that were his at shea in its first 32 games of 2008 and determine whether or not they would have cleared the fences of citi field (wind and weather and what not all being equal), and likewise for the citi homers versus shea, to determine/infer just how many home runs, approximately, the field is robbing us of. also, fuck, man. our offense is shit this year, home or away. especially without wright, davis, and pagan for extended stretches, and jason bay who probably couldn't hit a home run in a little league field. that should inherently depress the numbers a bit, shouldn't it?

i've got reyes, pelfrey, and rodriguez as the schaefer player, pitcher, and reliever, respectively, with a fine, fine showing by turner.

Dickey 4.2 Pagan 1.3 Bay 1.3 Thayer 1.1 Murphy 1.1 Isringhausen 1.0

Gee 4.0 Pagan 1.6 Turner 1.3 Isringhausen 1.1 Murphy 1.1 Beltran 0.9

Niese 3.8 Thole 1.9 Reyes 1.8 Murphy 1.1 Pridie 0.8 Pagan 0.6

Pelfrey 5.8 Reyes 3.0 Turner 0.7 Bay 0.5

Capuano 4.6 Reyes 1.6 Turner 1.6 Byrdak 1.0 Beato 0.7 Tejada 0.5

my main mazzilli meory is when he practically removed his arm from his body in an attempt to reel in a home run.

Reyes 3.4 Rodriguez 1.8 Dickey 1.4 Byrdak 1.2 Thole 1.2 Murphy 1.0

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'll take Jeremy Guthrie for Rodriguez, is that what you're asking? (PS, maybe this discussion oughta be separated from the game thread) probably, bu i don't have those powers. going forward, i'd certainly trade frankie for jeremy guthrie, or a jon niese clone. as frustrating and somewhat disappointing as jon niese has been this year, his contributions to the mets this year are of equal value as a dominant frankie rodriguez. the important thing is that there are some 150 players in the majors who can give at least as much value as frankie rodriguez. and even if we traded him away for noone major league ready, it shouldn't cost the team significantly more than 1.5 wins this very season. on the other hand, jose reyes is a much more difficult player to replace, and it is much less likely that we will be able to replace his production either at shortstop or on the roster as a whole.

frankie rodriguez has been excellent this year. in 23 innings, he's allowed all of two runs (though there could be inherited runners he's allowed to score). per fangraphs, he has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement. jose reyes has also been excellent this year. in fact, according to fangraphs, he's our best player, and is worth 2.5 wins above replacement. prorating these performances over an entire season, and assuming that these performance levels are maintained throughout the season, we have frankie at 2.0 wins above replacement and jose at 8.4 wins above replacement. so, in order for trading frankie to keep jose to work our poorly for the mets, presuming the mets are able to keep only one, the mets would have to replace him with a reliever or group of relievers who are collectively worth -1.9 wins per 48 games, or -6.4 wins over the course of an entire season. alternatively, the only way that trading jose reyes makes the mets a better team this year is if they replace him with a 6.4 win shortstop. by the way. jose reyes is the best shortstop in the majors this year with his 2.5 WAR, leading alexei ramirez and asrubal cabrera at 2.0 WAR. last year, the top shortstop was troy tulowitzki, at 6.6 WAR. yes, the gap between jose playing like he is for a full year and frankie pitching the way he is for a full year, is a smidge less than troy tulowitzki. if it comes down to choosing between the two players, is it even a choice? i mean, damn. last year, about 100 pitchers were worth at least 2 WAR, including kyle davies, paul maholm, and barry zito, and 144 batters, including jeff keppinger, jorge posada, and derrek lee. thus far this season, torii hunter, chipper jones and aaron rowand are all 0.6 WAR players. thus far this season, jon niese and jeremy guthrie are 0.6 WAR pitchers. that is how much frankie rodriguez is worth. i think we can get much more in return than a chipper jones '11, or a barry zito '10. i don't think we're trading reyes for a '10 tulo.

Beltran 3.6 Gee 2.5 Murphy 2.3 Thole 0.8 Turner 0.5 Reyes 0.3

metirish wrote: Do all those missing fans come back with a competitive 85 win team?, I don't think so , playoffs is what's needed to get the excitement and fans back IMO. not for most of the summer, and probably not too much for the next year either unless there was something big and productive happening over the off season.

Tejada 1.8 O'Connor 1.3 Murphy 0.6

Pridie 3.8 Harris 1.5 Martinez 1.4 Paulino 1.1 Bay 0.8

Reyes 3.9 Beato 2.4 Bay 1.1 Murphy 0.9 Beltran 0.9 Turner 0.8

Dickey 3.8 Murphy 1.5 Rodriguez 1.4 Isringhausen 1.2 O'Connor 1.1 Turner 1.0

Gee 5.2 Byrdak 1.3 Rodriguez 1.2 Turner 1.1 Bay 0.9 Reyes 0.3

i miss the racing stripes...