A Boy Named Seo

Thanks, Edge. I'm guessing a bunch of the Nats generous play came during that first Mets series. This poor run is sobering and sad and kinda confusing cause I don't think they're necessarily the winning streak team, or this pile of suck we've seen the 10 games since. C'mon real Mets. Show ya selves. Thanks, too, Ceets.

I'm curious how many unearned runs the Mets have allowed this year. My achy guts tells me it's a league-worst contender. Anyone know where to find this stuff? I didn't see it on ESPN, BB-R, but maybe wasn't turning over the right stones.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: So it is Leathersich going down. I was just at Citifield a little while ago to buy tickets and saw Leathersich walking into the park. I woulda said Hi but he was talking on his phone. There were 3 of them together, I didn't get a good look but figure now they must've been Goeddel and maybe, Gilmartin? Phoning in a burrito order.

Poor Wilmer just doesn't look so fluid or natural at short. I do worry about him, maybe more than Muff.

No, I hear the PA announcing guys. Not sure on the 7th inning stretch, but I gotta doubt it.

It's a strange and eerie game to watch. After a strikeout or a hit, there's a smattering of applause from people in the dugout and a handful of fans outside the stadium looking in. Must feel in some ways like a scrimmage for the players.

Edge has a point about gray looking like primer, but this one seems to have a sort of sheen to it under the lights and it looks a bit more silver than gray. Anyone see that, too? I really like em.

Srsly, if they can muster no better than .500 over the next 146 games, they're still an 86-win team. 75-71 gets 'em to 90. That's way doable, yall.

He was so much out.

Don't know if anyone already posted this one or not, but it's great at pointing out how huge the fast start is if the Mets do revert to that ~.500 team some peeps (foolishly) think they are. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-the-mets-might-be-contenders/ So the Mets Might Be Contenders by Dave Cameron - April 20, 2015 As it stands this morning, there are five teams in the National League that have at least a 50% chance of reaching the postseason, according to our Playoff Odds forecasts. The three top teams are the same three that everyone had winning their divisions before the year began; the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Nationals. The fourth team � or first Wild Card, if you want to make it sound a little better � is the Padres, whose winter moves made the largest splash the world has seen since Noah decided to build an ark. And finally, as you�ve likely surmised from reading the headline, there�s the New York Mets, currently given exactly a 50/50 chance of reaching the postseason this year. Yep, that puts the Mets ahead of the Pirates and Cubs, the two young darlings of the Central, each with rosters more stacked with young talent. It also puts the Mets well ahead of the Marlins, a trendy pre-season pick to make a run this year, but instead are a team that is reportedly considering firing their manager after getting their clocks cleaned in Queens over the weekend. After that four game sweep, the Marlins now find themselves seven games behind the Mets; it�s the largest gap between any two division rivals in baseball. Of course, it�s still really early. It�s April 19th, and because the season started a week later this year, that date is even more deceiving than usual. We�re two weeks into a 26 week race. After 13 games last year, the Brewers were 10-3, standing with the best record in baseball; they went 72-77 after that point and finished six games behind the two Wild Card teams. While the games that have been played still count and can�t be taken away, a 10-3 start doesn�t mean the Mets are really a great team. But that�s the thing about baseball in 2015; they don�t really need to be. They don�t even need to be particularly good, because in this day and age, a hot start and a roster that doesn�t suck makes you a contender. [fimg=750]http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-national-league-projected-wins.png[/fimg] The NL in 2015 is broken into four distinct tiers: there are the obvious division favorites, the Wild Card contenders, the Wild Card pretenders, and the Phillies. A visual representation might help. 2015-national-league-projected-wins Thanks to a strong start and a legitimately strong pitching staff, the Mets find themselves squarely in the seoncd tier. In reality, they probably aren�t as good as the Padres, Pirates, or Cubs, but the good news is that they don�t have to be. Their 10-3 start isn�t really predictive of anything � especially since their underlying BaseRuns performance suggests that a more normal distribution of those same events would have led to a 7-6 record at this point � other than the fact that the Mets just don�t need to win as many games going forward as their competitors do. Our forecasts have the Mets as essentially a .500 team, which lines up nicely with their context-neutral performances so far. Their offense is mostly fine � though it will be tested now that they�re losing Travis D�Arnaud and are already without David Wright � with enough decent hitters to make up for the fact that they lack great ones. Their defense is very good at some spots (think center field) and less great at others (yeah, Wilmer Flores is still their shortstop). They run the bases okay. Their bullpen is not horrible, and could be better than that if Bobby Parnell comes back as a contributor. And the rotation could very well be excellent, especially once they kick Dillon Gee out of it. Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom look like a formidable pair at the front, while Bartolo Colon refuses to age, and Jon Niese is a perfectly serviceable mid-rotation starter. With Rafael Montero set to join the rotation soon, and Noah Syndergaard and/or Steven Matz coming later this summer, the Mets have one of the best starting staffs in baseball. Combine three parts meh with one part awesome and you end up with an alright team that won�t embarrass itself, and in the 2015 National League, that�s a Wild Card contender; especially when staked to an early lead over the other race-runners. I�m not going to argue that the Mets are as good as the Padres, Pirates, or Cubs, because I don�t think they are. The Padres can hit in a way that the Mets can�t. The Pirates have the NL�s best player and a better supporting cast of position players, plus a magical wand that forces opponents to hit the ball directly into their extreme defensive alignments. The Cubs have upside stacked on top of upside. All these things have stuff the Mets don�t have. But the Mets have 10 wins, which is something that Chicago, Pittsburgh, and San Diego don�t have, and it�s not any better to have an extra +3 WAR player on your team than it is to have an extra three wins already in the bank. If you thought the Mets were a .500 team at the start of the year, then their current position is not much different than if they�d traded a Shake Shack Concrete for Ian Desmond on Opening Day. We go through this every April, but it�s always worth repeating; regression to the mean doesn�t mean that a team (or player) that has had a good run is due for an offsetting bad run in order to even things out. That�s the gambler�s fallacy, and life doesn�t work that way. The Mets haven�t played well enough that we should dramatically alter our expectations of what they�re going to do going forward, but now, .500 ball for 24 weeks gets you an 85 win finish. And while 85 wins probably doesn�t get you the Wild Card, that�s the mean forecast out of a range of expected outcomes, and it doesn�t take very many things going New York�s way before that 85 turns into 88 or 89. They could almost get there by taking the ball away from Dillon Gee and being aggressive on the trade market early in the year, limiting the number of at-bats and innings that have to go to replacement level players. Right now, we�re projecting 357 plate appearances for John Mayberry, because we don�t think Michael Cuddyer or Curtis Granderson can play the outfield all year long. You don�t have to look too terribly hard to find an outfielder better than John Mayberry, and if the Mets can scrounge up a solid fourth outfielder, all of the sudden this is a team projected to end the year with 86 or 87 wins. In reality, the Mets are probably still the 7th or 8th best team in the National League, but they�ve already collected 10 irrevocable wins, and the 4th, 5th, and 6th best teams in the NL aren�t exactly monsters. The NL Wild Cards will be won by two flawed teams that likely over-perform their actual abilities by a half dozen games or so. The Mets are already further down that path than anyone else, and while it�s easy to look at this roster and see a bunch of question marks, there really does appear to be enough here to make September interesting at Citi Field.

Huge, Murph.

Yikes. Couple of those to Cuddyer looked like strike 3. Sacks drunk. LGM.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Mets are not the only red hot team in the league, as their two new fellow division leaders are also aflame, particularly the top-spending Los Angeles Dodgers. San Francisco is floundering, and they've installed our old bud Angel Pagan as their number three hitter. They seem to have a solid starting eight, but they miss Hunter Pence daily and dearly. PlaceTeamWLPCTGBNGBSTRKGL10 WL10 LHEATDiv WDiv LPCTLg WLg LPCT1[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/NYM.png[/fimg] New York103.769��W88216103.769103.7692[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/ATL.png[/fimg] Atlanta84.6671.5 1.5W164763.66763.6673[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/WAS.png[/fimg] Washington 67.4624.06.5W155655.50055.5004[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/PHI.png[/fimg] Philadephia49.3086.012.5L137237.30037.3005[fimg=25]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/MIA.png[/fimg] Miami310.2317.016.5L437-128.20028.200 PlaceTeamWLPCTGBNGBSTRKGL10 WL10 LHEATLg WLg LPCTDIV[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/67/thumbs/34fklmt62f7bpq20uisaruz8d.gif[/fimg] New York103.769+1.5+1.5W88216103.769DIV[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/72/thumbs/2281.gif[/fimg] St. Louis83.727+2.0+2.0W5731283.727DIV[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/63/thumbs/tayw0n3tsg72i7bwr6ef4u5y3.gif[/fimg] Los Angeles93.750+1.5 +1.5W7821563.0001[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/51/thumbs/2265.gif[/fimg] Atlanta84.667��W164763.6672[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/73/thumbs/x5qgaefxmvbsmrkzw3k8qggwr.gif[/fimg] San Diego 85.615��W173885.6153[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/58/thumbs/ej4v6a8q5w5gegtf7ilqbhoz7.gif[/fimg] Colorado75.5830.50.5L355275.583T4[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/54/thumbs/4l0rcedpoe42tn9sh5kwbl6hg.gif[/fimg] Chicago65.5451.01.5L164565.545T4[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/50/thumbs/fh73oczerrqvptlk706emifth.gif[/fimg] Arizona76.5381.01.5W164776.5386[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/71/thumbs/7xkp9hnp9jq11e1zia4tdcqjh.gif[/fimg] Pittsburgh46.4002.57.5W364934.429T7[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/578/thumbs/x1hlmovt2m0mgs7ghwzgu6lht.gif[/fimg] Washington37.3003.512.5W155625.000T7[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/56/thumbs/706.gif[/fimg] Cincinnati37.3003.512.5L437-137.3009[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/70/thumbs/2256.gif[/fimg] Philadelphia39.2504.519.5L137227.222T10[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/74/thumbs/2296.gif[/fimg] San Francisco310.2315.023.5L1190310.231T10[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/54/60/thumbs/nrndw0ev7vb42le2dbx5i9a62.gif[/fimg] Miami310.2315.023.5L437-128.20012[fimg=55]http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/53/1477/thumbs/147714251970.gif[/fimg] Milwaukee210.1675.528.5L528-3210.167 Am i trippin? The logos in batmag's post quoting Edgy look old skool to me, but in Edgy's original post, they appear contemporary. versus

Giancarlo > Mike Stanton Albert > Joey Belle David > Dave Justice Where does Guillermo "Willie" Hernandez fall into this??? God speed, Melvin Upton.

A crazy amount, but maybe 20 mils or so less than the crazy amount he was projected to land. Glad our pretend trade for Jurickson Profar fell flat. Poor dude's missing his second straight season w/ shoulder surgery. #TeamWILMER

Paul Orendorf... Lololol

If I didn't know he didn't strikeout 9+ dudes per 9 in the minors, I'd have no real worries here, but I do wonder if he'll regress some. Baseball HQ talks about his high percentage of swinging strikes, which they say is a good indicator for success going forward regardless. His walks went up a little in the Majors, too, so if they both 'go back' a little, I figure he should be alright. I'm gonna guess 182 IP, 167 K, 53 BB, 3.39 ERA, 13 wins.

I also expect he'll get traded, but just prior to the July deadline. I'll peg him for 10 wins in 19 starts, 123 IP, 3.84 ERA, just under 6 K/9. We'll get a single-A kid and a PTBNL for him.

I'm scared of his age, recent injury history, and change of venue. Plus he's put up BABIPs the last 2 seasons of .351 and .382, despite a career .314 number. Has he acquired the skill to hit em where they ain't, or is he hella lucky? I'm betting more on the latter. .276, 16 HR, 73 RBI, 64 runs, .320 BABIP

I think the 2nd half splits are a good hint of things to come. 440 AB, .270, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 55 runs.

Speaking of tackiness, I would like to apologize to the decade, the 90's, for keeping my frosted-tip hairdo for well past a duration of time that could be considered by any reasonable person as 'acceptable'. I realize in doing so, I've also delayed the inevitable resurgence of this truly beautiful hair style, as other fashion staples of that era have begun to make their cyclical return to prominence. The President has already made Bugle Boy-style jeans super hot again, and it would have been perfect for the A-ROD brand to be synonymous with the OBAMA brand. Regrettably, I've missed this opportunity. Signed, Bummed in the Bronx

Dear Fans, A couple years back, a story leaked that I commissioned a piece of art where I am depicted as a centaur, and that I hung that piece of art above my bed. This, regrettably, was true. People joked that I used these paintings to inspire sexual inspiration in both myself and my partners (who included Madonna and Kate Hudson, if you'll recall), and this is, of course, is un-regrettably true. The only thing that would turn me on more than the Material Girl's sinewy body was a picture of myself as a man-horse. I mean, shit, that is 5-alarm-fire hot. But I now see the error of my ways and would like to say I'm sorry for the way this painting has allowed my fans to view me over the years. While a horse is a strong and virile creature, I imagine that if I had depicted myself as a golden eagle or better yet, a shark, that the perception of me now would be one not only of virility and strength, but that of a feared and dangerous predator, as well. Plus, they swim really, really fast and a pregnant female can give birth to up to 100 baby sharks! That is some sexual potency right there! So I apologize to my fans and ask in the future that when they think of Alex Rodriguez, to think of him as a vicious, vigourous half-man, half-great white shark, who swims really really fast and lays shit tons of eggs. Thank you, Alex

Sounds like Dario's a pretty long shot for innings, but he could sling a few if the Rule V guy doesn't work out or we need to hock a different LOOGY. I'll guess 15 games, 9 IP, 8 K, 4 BB, 4.50 ERA.

Nah, Marlins got some new stuff, but not good stuff. Plus they never intrigue me, ever.

Definitely. The potential train-wreck factor makes them all the more intriguing.