I mean, of course you never know what's going to happen in a baseball season until you play the season. That's a given. But I think prudent decisions rely upon likelihood of outcomes, and in that sense, projections matter. And yes, sometimes a team comes out of nowhere to compete, but oftentimes (last year excepted), another team that was supposed to be good will be awful. Last year, the Mets were projected to win 83.6 games, good for the 3rd WC. (PECOTA, 2024). For that team, I think trading for frontline starter could have potentially greatly improved their odds to make the playoffs. They were a fringe team, and were projected to have holes in their rotation. This year, the Mets are projected to win 91.1 games. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ WC teams are the Mets (91.1), Arizona (87.0), San Diego (86.0). Philadelphia is the last team out (85.3). No one from the central is reasonably expected to compete for the WC (Milwaukee is the closest at 80.8). And LA is projected to run away with the division. So effectively, that leaves 5 teams (ATL, NYM, PHI, SD, ARI) competing for 4 spots, with the Mets projected to have the second highest win total among those 5 teams. My thinking is that the Mets are well positioned to make the playoffs without Cease. And barring disaster, should be good enough to at least stay in the race until July, when you have more clarity and the price is lower. The downside, is that you could fall out of the race by then, some of your prospects may have lost value, and SD may have already unloaded Cease, or someone else, to a competitor. So I don't know if there is a clear cut right answer, but I'd be inclined to hold onto my prospects for now.