Centerfield

Our Lineup: 1. Lindor .788 26 HR 2. Soto. .946 34 HR 3. Bichette .786 18 HR 4. Polanco .764 20 HR 5. Alvarez .779 20 HR 6. Baty .735 14 HR 7. Vientos .767 20 HR 8. Robert .698 18 HR 9. Semien .714 22 HR

Some good stuff at Fangraphs. fWAR projections for new guys: 1. Bo Bichette 3.9 2. Marcus Semien 3.1 3. Jorge Polanco 1.8 4. Luis Robert Jr. 1.6 Total: 10.4 The path not taken: 1. Brandon Nimmo 2.6 2. Pete Alonso 2.7 3. Jeff McNeil 1.8 4. Cedric Mullins 1.2 Total: 8.3

I'm still a little down about the winter makeover. I'll miss Alonso, Nimmo, Diaz and McNeil. So let's have a positive thread that will cheer us up. Let's ignore the fact that our lineup has all sorts of question marks, up and down the lineup. We'll ignore the fact that hitters 5-9 in our lineup can all put up a .650 OPS. That's not the focus of this thread. In this thread, we'll examine upside. And why this lineup has the chance to go down as the best in Mets history. Let's assume we're good with 1-4. Lindor, Soto, Bichette and Polanco are all coming off strong years. Assuming health (kind of a big assumption with Polanco), these four should be fine. #5. Our #5 hitter is Francisco Alvarez. His overall numbers were decent last year. .787 OPS, 11 HR. But he was a different hitter at the end of last year than the beginning. Second half Alvarez had a .921 OPS with 8 HR. By month, 1.042 in July, 1.059 in August, and he put up a .784 OPS in September playing with five broken hands. Eric Chavez is gone. OPS above .900 season is incoming. 20+ HR in his sleep. #6. Brett Baty. Again, respectable overall numbers. .748 OPS overall. 18 HR. Second half Baty put up an .829 OPS. An .829 OPS and 20+ HRs from the 6 spot is not bad. #7. Mark Vientos. Mark had a down year in 2025 with a .702 OPS. But even in that down year, he still hit 17 HR. He's a year removed from an .827 OPS, 27 HR. I think we're looking at a bounceback year with 30+ HRs from our 7th place hitter. #8. Luis Robert Jr. Last two years haven't been kind to LuBob. But if you go back to 2023, he had an .857 OPS, 38 HR, 20 SB, good for 5.3 WAR. He's only 28 years old. I see big things ahead for our centerfielder. .800+ OPS, 30+ HR. #9. Marcus Semien. So this might be the biggest stretch. The other four guys are young. There's no reason we can't get the best of them still. Semien is tougher, he's 35 years old and 2 years removed from his last good season. But maybe he gets invigorated from moving out of Globe Life, a terrible park for hitters. His OPS in away games was .718. And he hit twice as many HR on the road (10) as he did at home (5). We get him away from his toxic relationship with Cory Seager, get him into a better hitting environment, and he responds with a .750 OPS, 20+ HR. And if any of these guys falter, we have Carson Benge and Ronny Mauricio waiting to break out. The Mets offense is going to be unstoppable in 2026.

I have a hard time believing he has anything left. His WHIP was above 1.4 last year, despite the low ERA. But you never know. He was good a few years ago for Philadelphia before falling off.

I'm surprised to hear this. No matter how bad the Wilpons were at running the Mets, I thought they did a great job hiring good talent for SNY. Bill Webb was a legend before DeMarsico. And of course the broadcast booth is legendary. I hope the next guy is good. Really love the Mets broadcast.

It occurs to me. Not only did Mets prospects not work out for busts, they didn't work out for other teams once traded away. I suspect that since our player development has improved, we'll start to regret letting some of these guys go.

As I see it: Your top six (assuming a six man rotation) 1. Freddy Peralta 2. Nolan McLean 3. David Peterson 4. Clay Holmes 5. Sean Manaea 6. Kodai Senga 7. Tobias Myers (spot starter/swingman) 8. Jonah Tong (AAA) 9. Christian Scott (AAA) We appear to be deep, but depth gets used up pretty quickly once injuries set in. Tong may not be ready this year, so counting on him is tough. Scott is unproven, and working his way back from TJ. Yeah, I'd be cool with Jose Quintana. He could maybe work out of the pen if everyone is healthy? Other options are Holmes goes to the pen, or McLean gets sent to AAA. Not ideal, but they're options.

I hear read his name with that corny accent. If you don’t look good, we don’t look good!

I would go: 1. Lindor SS 2. Soto RF 3. Bichette 3B 4. Polanco 1B 5. Baty LF 6. Alvarez C 7. Vientos DH 8. Robert CF 9. Semien 2B Peralta P

Of course. But Edwin Diaz alone should have been the price for us taking back the Cano contract. That contract was an albatross, and Seattle had their hands tied. They had to move Cano, and because of the no trade clause, they had to move him where ever he said he wanted to go. In 2019, Cano had 5 years left on his deal at $24M per year. He was going into his age 36 season. They were in as bad a position as you can be. If the Wilpons weren't (a) broke, and ( selling, they could have stuck to their guns and forced Seattle to include Diaz as part of the trade. And if it didn't work out, walk away. But they knew they were selling. Which is why they didn't care about taking on the back end of the Cano deal. They knew someone else would be paying that contract. They also knew that Kelenic and Dunn weren't going to be able to help them in a championship before selling. Which is why they didn't care about their potential. Instead, their objectives were to get Cano to NY to try to win a championship before they sold, and save as much money as possible. Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak going back to Seattle told you everything you need to know. The Wilpons needed to get out from under those contracts. Which is how Kelenic and Dunn ended up in the deal. There are trades when you take on a bad contract. There are trades when you give up your best prospects. Those two things should never happen in the same trade.

Over the last 40 years, I count only 3 seriously regrettable trades concerning the prospects lost: 1. Melvin Mora for Mike Bordick, 2000. Admittedly with some benefit of hindsight. 2. Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, 2004. No hindsight required, it was dumb at the time. 3. Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javy Baez, 2021. (I’d guess I’d also consider the July 2002 deal for Reed/Middlebrooks that gave up Jason Bay). Whether the deals worked (Leiter, Piazza, Delgado, Cespedes, Lindor), didn’t work (Alomar, Cano), or worked but didn’t make a difference re: playoffs (Viola, Santana), the Mets weren’t burned on the prospects lost. Good stuff. The only ones I'd add are: 1. Jared Kelenic. This is the one that upset me the most. I know that he didn't end up turning into anything, but Cano had a no-trade clause. There was no need to include our best prospect. And even though he ended up being a bust, I feel BVW grossly underestimated his trade value. If he was going to be moved, he should have warranted a better return. Same situation as Kazmir. If you were going to trade him, you better get max value. 2. Jason Isringhausen. Izzy was not a prospect, but was still very young. Only 26. And not only did Billy Taylor suck, Izzy immediately turned into the reliever we were looking for. I wish he could have collected all of those saves as a Met.

If I had to summarize: Lineup. Not sure if it's better or worse. Definitely different. I think the fact that it's not clearly worse is a win from where we were a few weeks ago. Bullpen. Again, not sure if it's better or worse. I think bullpens are unpredictable anyway. At least we have some bounce-back candidates. Rotation. I think we are clearly better. We have Peralta. Hopefully a full season of McLean. Scott and Tong could be ready sometime this year. Obviously the key will be Senga, Manaea and Peterson. All can pitch like a Number 2 starter. All can be unpitchable.

Here's where I was two and a half weeks ago. It's crazy how close we came to this. I can't believe Tucker was available short-term. We almost got him. Bo Bichette wasn't even on my radar. And had he been, I don't think I would have thought he'd sign short term either. So I guess we're a lot better off than I thought they would be a few short weeks ago. I'm still not convinced Bichette is a big enough bat to replace Alonso and protect Soto. But I'll take it over the other options. The range of outcomes is crazy for this team. With all the question marks everywhere, this team could win 95 games, or it could win 82. I'm guessing they'll split the difference and end up around 88-90. That should be good enough to snag a wild card.

It will be interesting to bump this at the end of the year, or even in a few years, and see how this turned out. I remember years ago listening to some trade rumors about the Marlins. Maybe it was Stanton? Yelich? Anyway, the buzz was they wanted Rafael Montero. Someone online said maybe we could offer Jacob deGrom instead. I had never heard of him, so I agreed. Yes! Send that deGrom kid. I'm on board. Obviously that deal never happened. When they traded for Cespedes, I was glad they didn't have to give up Steven Matz. Then later thought they would have been better off giving up Matz instead of Fulmer. And then Fulmer fell off the table. So you never know. The Cubs wanted Matt Allen instead of Pete Crow-Armstrong. My Mets fandom is packed with prospects I would have been upset to give up. Maybe Jett will end up being Dilson Herrera.

Jett for me. I figured he would eventually slot in if Semien struggled. I can see him going .280/.360/.450. 15 HRs, 45 SB. With good defense at 2B. History tells me I have no idea how to gauge prospects, but this is what I was hoping for.

Reaction online seems fairly positive. I don’t know. I’m notoriously bad at judging trades. I’m sure I’ll come around once I see Peralta pitch. Right now I’m mourning Jett and Sproat. Was especially excited to see a little guy over achieve.

Deal done. Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat going to the Brewers.

A few reports on Twitter that talks are heating up. Jett Williams would be going to the Brewers. Per Pat ragazzo.

How much more does he think he will get as a 33 year old? Let's say he puts up two more seasons with an .817 OPS. Who is going to give him more than he has left on his deal?

With the Robert trade and Bellinger returning to the Yankees, it's likely that the Mets are done adding significant position players. Will Sammon has an article suggesting as much even before the Bellinger signing. I do think they need to fill out the bench a bit, unless I'm forgetting someone. 1. Lindor - SS 2. Soto - RF 3. Bichette - 3B 4. Polanco - 1B 5. Baty - LF 6. Alvarez - C 7. Vientos - DH 8. Robert - CF 9. Semien - 2B Bench: Mauricio, Taylor, Torrens Potential Rookies: Jett Williams, Carson Benge, Ryan Clifford What do we think? It's certainly different from last year. I feel like 1-4 isn't as strong as last year. 5-9 are all question marks. All of them could post an OPS of anywhere from .650 to .850.

I would guess they’re out. Baty needs ABs and they want to leave some opening for Benge.

He was good enough to hit behind Vladdy Jr., so…yes? Of course, I suppose there is an open question about the best way to structure the top of the lineup. One wonders about Soto leadoff with Lindor and Bichette following. Or Bichette leading off with Soto and then Lindor. So I’ve been trying to get familiar with Bo. I was surprised to see he doesn’t walk a lot. His OBP isn’t that high for someone who hovers around .300 for BA. And although he has power, he’s not really a power hitter. And he doesn’t really seem like much of a stolen base threat either. But what he does though, is hit. He makes contact, hits for average, and shoots the gaps. And though we talk about RISP being inconsistent from year to year, it seems like Bo does it all the time. RISP, close and late, for him it’s repeatable. And the reports are that he hits good pitching (closers). I don’t think pitchers will fear him the way they feared Pete. But it seems like Bo might be more likely to drive him in, or at least keep the rally going.

Heyman said Bellinger is down to the Mets, Yankees and two other teams. Which means it’s basically the Mets and Yankees. If the Dodgers were even remotely interested Heyman is not going to miss the opportunity to exaggerate the leverage. Because it’s public like this, I’m assuming that this is Boras just trying to get every last drop from Hal. I’d be shocked if he didn’t return to the Yankees.

The owners were always going to ask for a cap. Even if they back off of that, they were never going to give up their biggest chip before the game even starts. Whether they stick to that will determine how long the stoppage is. If they insist on one, get ready to lose a year of baseball. I disagree about the Yankees. I think Hal is different than his father. He’d love nothing more than an artificial limit on his spending. He probably would have wanted one years ago. It’s tough to figure out the Dodgers. All the deferred money will eventually catch up to them. I figure at some point, this group will have so much payroll debt that they’ll sell, then the new ownership group will need to wipe the slate clean. The easiest fix for the Dodgers is to undo their sweetheart TV deal. Something about the McCourt bankruptcy left them having to share a fraction of their actual TV money. Which puts them on better footing than the other 29 clubs. I don’t know if that deal can be undone legally. But that would be a much easier goal than a hard salary cap.

Can confirm.