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Everything posted by Centerfield
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This is a "make it look easy" thread. Straw and Frazier are on opposite ends of the spectrum here.
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Hey, you know what's also awesome? Anthony Swarzak has made 7 appearances for the Braves to the tune of a 1.17 ERA. Man, I love the Brodie era.
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Let's keep going. I think of it as a Diaz for Kelenic trade...Kelenic is a great prospect. So was Rosario. You never know how those will turn out, obviously. Diaz has had great nights and a couple stinkers. Well, first off, even if you isolate it this way (which I illustrate above is not proper), it's a Diaz for Kelenic and Dunn and Bautista trade. I don't see why you would gloss over Dunn, a first round pick and a top 100 prospect. But let's leave that aside for the moment. You compare Kelenic to Rosario. This is unfair, and frankly, a little lazy. I agree that Rosario was once a great prospect, but his numbers in the minors were nothing approaching Kelenic. Rosario's MiL OPS was .741. He hit 17 HR's over the course of 5 seasons in the system. Kelenic has an OPS of .915. He's already hit 19 HR's over last season and this. Rosario was always a "has the tools to one day be great" prospect. Like Lindor or Gregorious, who took time to find their hitting. Kelenic is a "already hitting the shit out of the ball" prospect. He's often called the best hitter in that draft. The last time we heard descriptions like that, it was Michael Conforto. And none of this guarantees that Kelenic will turn into anything (or that Rosario will continue to struggle). But it's improper to lump Kelenic with Rosario, and especially improper to disregard Dunn and Bautista entirely.
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I think it's too soon to call it a disaster. Looking back, I considered it a Cano trade, but now I think of it as a Diaz for Kelenic trade with a bunch of bad contracts headed in each direction. The Mariners already have shed Swarzak and are about to shed Bruce. Cano has sucked so far, but I don't think we're relying on him to carry the team. Kelenic is a great prospect. So was Rosario. You never know how those will turn out, obviously. Diaz has had great nights and a couple stinkers. A lot to unfold there. "A bunch of bad contracts headed in each direction". This isn't nearly as bad as "very fine people on both sides", but the gloss-over philosophy is the same. Let's look at these bad contracts. Mariners Bad Contract: Cano: 5 years - $120 Million Total: $120 Million Mets Bad Contracts: Bruce: 2 years - $26 million Swarzak: 1 year - $8 million Total: $34 million If we isolate this portion of the trade as "a bunch of bad contracts headed in each direction" then this portion of the trade is an unmitigated disaster for the Mets. After the trade, the bad contracts looked like this: Seattle Bad Contracts Cano: $20 million (sent to Mets) Bruce: 2 years - $26 million Swarzak: 1 year - $8 million Total: $54 Million Mets Bad Contract: Cano: 5 years - $10 Million Total: $100 Million It's already a landslide in favor of Seattle. But as I mentioned earlier, the contracts the Mets unloaded were not zero value contracts. DiPoto has been able to unload about $16 million of the Swarzak/Bruce deals. Meaning Seattle ends up: Seattle Bad Contracts Cano: $20 million (sent to Mets) Bruce: $16 million (sent to Philly) Swarzak: $2 million (sent to Atlanta) Total: $38 Million $100 million in bad money for the Mets compared to $38 million in bad money for the Mariners. A difference of $62 million! You know what you can get for $62 million? Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel and then waste the leftover $8 million on hookers and blow. Or you can throw in another $4 million and get Adam Ottavino (3 years, $27 million) and Zack Britton (3 years, $39 million) (total cost $66 million). To be fair, there is still a chance that Cano can be productive for the Mets, while Seattle will clearly get no value for the players they unloaded. And there is a lesser chance that the Mets might be able to unload Cano, but the idea that they can unload now the last four years of a 37 year old PED user with a no trade clause...well. You get the idea. This is why it's impossible (or incorrect) to view this portion of the trade as just an exchange of bad contracts. If you're going to separate different parts of the trade, each part should stand up on its own. Anyone who would make this trade, as isolated here, is foolish. Edwin Diaz had to be included for this to even remotely make sense.
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"He's going to be in the lineup pretty much every day." LOLOLOLOL
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=Centerfield post_id=973 time=1547164851 user_id=65] I don't understand this move. We now have six infielders that can potentially start (Cano, McNeil, Frazier, Lowrie, Rosario and Alonso). We have a 7th guy in JD Davis that could potentially be pretty good. We have two starting quality outfielders, and two shitty ones, and no one behind them. We also have Vargas as a fifth starter and no quality lefty relievers. We have no established cleanup hitter. I'm guessing there must be a trade of some sort coming up.
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IGT 06/06 - SFG @ NYM - Sunshine Gay (Dame)
Centerfield replied to kcmets's topic in Archived Game Threads
Saw the Dodgers take the lead and was pleasantly surprised to see the Mets had won. I've only been campaigning for Dom Smith to start in LF for a few weeks. Usually the Mets ignore me for longer. -
You know what's awesome? DiPoto turned around and dumped Swarzak and unloaded $5.6 of that $8 million salary. Bruce was owed $28 million over 2 years. DiPoto unloaded him and ate $18 million. Savings of $10 million. I said at the time that it's incorrect to write off Swarzak and Bruce as zero value, and it was true. We got $36 million in "relief" from that trade. DiPoto turned around and dumped approximately $16 million of that savings, meaning our net savings was $20 million. We took on a $120 million bad contract for a net savings of $40 million. The $20 Seattle gave us and the $20 that was unloaded. So if you play "divide the trade", and just look at bad contract for bad contract, you effectively signed Robinson Cano to a 5 year, $80 million contract, for the his age 36-40 seasons. Well played.
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That thread is amazing. Everyone dismisses the move as stupid. No one would want 36 year old Cano. Eventually, we come to grips with the fact BVW definitely wants 36 year old Cano. We reject the initial trade rumors as giving up too much. Eventually, the trade gets worse. And then worse, and then by the end, it's a fucking nightmare. At the end we all hold out some sliver of hope over the alleged $60 million coming back. It turns into $20 million and we all die. And here we are, 7 months later, the trade having been every bit as bad as we had feared. But watching games anyway. It really says something about the psychology of being a sports fan. What we are doing makes no sense on any logical level.
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I thought I had a thread about this already, but maybe it was on the old board. Anyway, Cot's numbers are out. Mets have a payroll of $160 million, good for 9th in the league. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ Which, on its surface, sounds ok. But once you dig deeper, the numbers don't look as good. As everyone knows, that number includes Wright and Cespedes, players for which the Mets are receiving insurance. If you deduct 75% of those salaries, the Mets actual payroll is $123 million, good for 18th in the league. The Mets' on field salary is $79 million, which is good for 20th in baseball. Some of that is bad luck, obviously, but some of that isn't. Before the season started, we knew David Wright would not play one inning. We knew Cespedes was out for at least half the season, with question marks about his return even before the ankle fracture. Robinson Cano's $19 million is on the shelf, but he's 36 and coming off a PED suspension, and Jed Lowrie's $8.5 million was handed out to a 35 year old without a clear position to play. When you look at who took the field for the Mets last night, it's not hard to see why they are struggling. The players with the highest base salaries are Todd Frazier, Juan Lagares and Jason Vargas. ($9M, $9M and $8M). deGrom is next at $7M (plus a $2M signing bonus). Our two big free agents Ramos and Familia combine for $14 million, then everyone else is $6 million or less. In a nutshell, this is more evidence of what we already know. The Mets don't spend nearly enough, and when they do, they spend it poorly. Rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat...
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Write tomorrow's headlines about Brett Baty today! GOING BATY! Rookie Phenom Homers Twice in Mets Win BATMAN RETURNS Mets Rookie Recalled from Syracuse After Blatant Service Time Manipulation BAT'S ALL FOLKS! Baty Walk-Off HR Wins it for Mets in 11 LOOK AT THE BIG BRAIN ON BRETT Heads up play by 3B saves the day for Mets!
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There were tons of options for closers out there. Probably more than any other position. Ottavino, Britton, Andrew Miller and Dave Robertson. In addition to Familia and Kimbrel and the other name closers. We'd be just fine if we had Ottavino. Probably better. And more than a few on this board advocated for him. As far as Kelenic, we have no idea what he'll be. But he has already demonstrated that he has the type of upside that you hold onto. Andres Jimenez has a good chance to be a good ballplayer. Kelenic has a chance to be a once in a generation talent. And regardless of what he may end up, he is without a doubt a superstar prospect right now. And that means his trade value is high. And so if you trade him, the dumbest thing you can get back is a closer with a one year record of brilliance. Also, he's been moved to high A, after destroying low A. As to whether this was predictable, sure it was. Diaz wasn't likely to repeat 2018 for the same reason as deGrom wasn't. That level is hard to maintain. But prior to last night's blowup, he was doing fine, pitching near career norms, and once he gets a few more inning under his belt, he'll move those numbers closer to the norm as well. The crazy thing about Diaz is that he loses a lot of games. And I know W/L records don't mean a lot, especially for relievers, but that L last night moves him to 1-3 on the year and 5-17 lifetime! That's crazy.
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And so you know it's not hindsight, the reaction poll from the original board: http://www.thecranepool.net/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=27584http://www.thecranepool.net/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=27584 CPF voted overwhelmingly against it. 19 negative reactions to 9 positive ones. 1 neutral. A lot of responses were qualified with "let's see if the Mets spend now" or something along those lines. Clearly they did not.
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And not just a top prospect, but one that has glowing reviews comparing him to Mike Trout. He may or may not pan out, but that speaks to the market value he has right now. He's the type of prospect you trade only under the right circumstances. And those circumstances mean getting a game changing player back in return. Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado. Or a Cy Young caliber starter. Certainly not a closer. No matter how good he was supposed to be. I've said before. There are trades where you take on a shit contract. There are trades where you deal away your top prospect. If those things happen in the same trade that is one trashfuck of a trade.
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Also, I'm sorry for everyone who stayed up to watch this. I've been there before. Stewing. Angry. Wondering why I do this to myself.
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=dgwphotography post_id=11561 time=1559222056 user_id=78] This is one game I'm glad I fell asleep on. If I saw that live, I probably would have nver gone to sleep. I hate west coast trips...
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If you are a fan of this team, and pay attention to everything that goes on in and around the team, and you think ownership has nothing to do with the results on the field, then there is no point in trying to have a productive conversation with you. A little luck here and Noah's ability to settle down may well affect the result tonight. But luck can't be used to explain away that the Mets have had losing seasons in 9 of 11 years while the Dodgers have rattled off six straight division titles.
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I'm not surprised to see that Sandy took the high road. I would have been shocked if Alderson came out with a blistering tell-all. Look, I'm sure Alderson is a good guy, but he's not without fault. He acted as a shield for the Wilpons for years, enabled them to act in their Wilpon way, and threw Cespedes under the bus when he knew the guy was playing hurt. So fuck Sandy too. Along with the Wilpons. And Brodie. Fuck them all.
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Mickey Calloway Deathwatch, 2k19
Centerfield replied to A Boy Named Seo's topic in New York Mets Talk
Should be fired. Even when the restraints were lifted he still doesn't know when to use Diaz.

