Centerfield

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Helps our Pete chances, but significantly reduces our Christian Walker chances. How do you figure? (The first part. I agree about the second part)

I can't believe we're still talking about Arenado. He's already so deep into his decline that he's already at the non productive stage of his career. He's also expensive, signed for several more years, and will cost something in a trade. To top it off, he has a limited no trade clause. So in the event you are lucky enough to find someone dumb enough to take on his contract later, you have to hope that team is not on his no fly list. Easiest pass ever. This is like a Jeff/Brodie move. They'd probably give up Jett.

I have no issue if anyone has criticisms of Cohen. But it's silly to argue against the results. The last 14 years of Wilpon ownership produced two playoff teams. The first four years of Cohen ownership have produced two playoff teams. He identified Stearns as the guy he wanted, then treaded water until he was able to get his man. I'm sorry you're not enjoying this. I think it's been great.

And somewhat related to this, I also wonder if his performance would not be improved with the occasional off day. Or at least DH for the day.

Pete's off year doesn't seem quite as bad if you look at OPS+ 2019: 147 2020: 122 2021: 133 2022: 146 2023: 123 2024: 123 Basically you can count on him to be in the 120s during his down years, 140s during his good years. By comparison, Bregman: 2022: 134 2023: 122 2024: 118 A case can be made that Bregman is declining worse than Pete. And for good measure, Christian Walker 2022: 126 2023: 120 2024: 116 Walker and Bregman give you better defense, but neither give you as much offense as Pete.

This is really no surprise. By 2010 we were fully in the post-Madoff Wilpon era. It's crazy that a big market team opening a brand new stadium would have such a protracted period of losing. In the last 12 years of Wilpon ownership, the Mets had 3 winning seasons, and made the playoffs twice (87 wins, 90 wins). That's hard to do in the Wild Card era. I can't believe we really endured this period and somehow continued to root for this team. What a shit ownership group they were. Not just the money, the assholes they hired, the poor decisions they made, the awful scouting and player development, the shitty PR, the shitty technology, the narcissistic nepo baby with the punchable face. I hope Steve Cohen owns these Mets forever. I was listening to the Stearns interview the other day. I can't believe we have someone this smart running the team. For years, I remember thinking that I could walk in and run the team better than whatever dipshit was on TV. Now I listen to Stearns speak and find myself thinking "I can't believe he's ours". Forget Soto. Stearns might be the best acquisition this team has ever made.

I agree with using OPS+. WAR is tricky as Soto is really nothing like a SS that accumulates alot of defensive WAR. Not counting the guys who stopped playing before age 41 skews the projection high. But assigning a value of 0 skews it way too low. No one puts up and OPS of 0. Similarly no one puts up an OPS+ of 0. One option is using league average as placeholders, but it's entirely possible that our superstar at age 39 is below league average. Assigning a value equal to the worst qualified player of that year is an option, but again, it's hard to know that the retired player would have been that bad. Maybe something like assigning a .650 OPS would be a good placeholder.

=MFS62 post_id=181218 time=1734389186 user_id=60] Ted Williams and Stan Musial celebrated the age of 41 by putting up years of 1.096 OPS with 29 HR and .924 OPS with 19 HR, respectively. And they didn't have the option of the DH. Those are obvious exceptions but you never know how someone will age. Later

Terrific work! This is obviously optimistic in that a player who is bad enough to play himself out of the league or suffer a career-ending injury isn't around anymore to bring the average down. Perhaps some of this can be offset by modern training/nutrition, the universal DH (perhaps reducing the wear and tear that results in decline) and his work ethic (he has a reputation of being a tireless worker and perfectionist). The chart shows 5 "Receiving MVP Votes" level seasons, 6 very good seasons (Lindor/Vientos range), 3 OK seasons, and one bad season. Yeah, sign me up for that now.

His plantar fasciitis crept up in May and got worse over the summer. His production reflects that. His OPS by month: April: .708 May: .751 June: .1.004 July: .607 August: .684 September: .611 Postseason: .608 He'll be 32 next season. So you'd think he's got something left in the tank. I am hoping that the PF bothered him more than he let on, and that he'll bounce back to his typical .800+ OPS next year.

[YOUTUBE] [/YOUTUBE] On Edit: I have no idea how to embed. Try this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IddU3LWO--Qhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IddU3LWO--Q Here it is. Listen at the 4:44 mark. And yes, if the guys that Stearns wants start to sign with other teams, he'll have to adjust. But my takeaway there is that as long as there are options, Stearns would prefer to get the point of the winter where it's a buyer's market. Starting pitching is the area where there's been the most movement. But even there, there are tons of options available: Free Agents Corbin Burnes Walker Buehler Sean Manaea Nick Pivetta Jack Flaherty Jose Quintana Roki Sasaki Potentially Available in Trades Luis Castillo Sandy Alcantara Jesus Luzardo Dylan Cease Sonny Gray Framber Valdez Jordan Montgomery I have no idea how many of these interest Stearns, but I think as long as he has 5 or 6 options for 2 spots, he's not going to be in any hurry to move.

I heard an interesting bit of an interview from David Stearns from the winter meetings. Generally Stearns does a great job of keeping things close to the vest. But he had an interesting answer when asked if he was surprised at the big dollar amounts being awarded this winter. His answer was that in every off season he's seen, there's an initial inflationary period where people are amazed at the contracts being granted, then eventually it shifts to a period where people start to wonder if guys will get paid what they're worth, or even get signed at all. He says it happens every year and he expects this year to be no different. I think this is telling. He signed Sean Manaea on January 12. He signed JD Martinez in March. I'm guessing he doesn't want to wait until March again, but if I'm reading this correctly, he landed the one unicorn of the winter. Now he seems content to get guys at his price. And this makes sense. A lot of guys are still available, especially pitchers. I'll try to find that interview.

…by not mentioning Luis Castillo as a trade possibility. Ken Rosenthal says the Mets are among the teams that have checked in. He makes money. Under contract for the next three years at $24M each. Vesting option for 2028. 31 years old. I don't really know much about him but his stats suggest he's a solid, dependable mid 3 ERA starter.

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Wright deserves it. The other guys belong in the team Hall of Fame. That the Mets have a shitty history without a lot of truly great, long-tenured team-associated players is their fault and papering it over by elevating guys who don't meet the criteria isn't going to change that. Exactly this.

4.76 career ERA. Has never had an ERA below 4.00. 1.316 WHIP. Turned down a QO so costs a draft pick. Not sure what they see here.

Two pitchers who gave up memorable postseason HRs traded for each other. Cortes is a good rotation piece, but he has only 1 year of control left. An odd choice by Milwaukee. I've never heard of the Yankee prospect.

Devin Williams to the Yankees. Per Jeff Passan on twitter. Not sure the return going the other way, but a great pickup by the Yankees.

Also. I kinda like the thought of having Siri as a late inning defensive replacement that can end the game in one swing if it goes to extras.

I also think it will be a combination of Siri and Taylor to start. Then whatever kid is hitting will get some run in CF. Either Acuna, Jett or Gilbert. Hopefully at least one of them will force the issue.

My stated criteria: number retirement should only be for players who put up elite performance with the Mets, meaning either HOF worthy, or just a shade below, and are clearly identifiable with the team. David is clearly identifiable with the team. He played 14 seasons with the Mets, with the last three being derailed by injury. 242 HR, 1777 H, 970 RBI. .296/.376/.491. Career .867 OPS. 7 time All-Star, received MVP votes in 6 different seasons, two GG, 2 Silver Sluggers. Obviously, we think he could have had a much longer career if not for his back injury. Was also hurt in the middle of his career by the stupid dimensions of the park Jeff Wilpon designed. I vote yes. David deserves this honor.

=Gwreck post_id=180963 time=1734023602 user_id=56] Taylor if the opposing starter is a righty, Siri if he's a lefty.

Given the contracts that have been issued since this deal, I feel even more strongly that the Mets should have done this deal with Severino.

So that's like Brandon Sproat, Jett Williams, Ronny Mauricio, and a lower level guy?

It sounds like the Alonso market is not very strong. Not seeing any obvious upgrades I'd be fine with bringing back Pete.

Not even if they paid the entire contract. He's 34 and has already started his precipitous decline. He may have an OPS in the .600s. I'd rather start Acuna at 2B and move McNeil to third.