smg58

The statistical analysis from Baseball Prospectus that suggested that pitching and defense are statistically significant factors in the postseason also said that how a team finishes the regular season isn't one.

Except that the Mets have been assured for a long time that they'll be playing next week. The Cardinals... Presumably the Mets still know where the 'on' switch is. I don't expect them to play like this next week.

Unfortunately, the collapse of the Red Sox and White Sox brings up the down side to the wild card system: there's no real drama left in the AL Central race, as it's now pretty evident that both the Tigers and Twins will be playing beyond next week. On the opposite end of the wild card system, the resurgence of the Phillies is making the San Diego/Los Angeles race very meaningful. The Phillies would have had nothing to play for for the last two months under the old system.

Every year when the postseason starts, you get some article from one of the numbers nerds out there debunking the notion that "pitching is everything." And as long as you take pitching to be 100% absolutely everything, it's an easy one to debunk. But they invariably invoke stats that really do suggest that good pitching will get you farther than good hitting. Delgado is actually very good (at least from what I've seen) at reaching for slightly errant throws, but that kind of thing shows up in the range factor and zone rating (not to mention fielding percentage) of the other infielders, not him. I could see the Twins beating out the Yankees in a five-game series. If Santana wins twice, they only have to win one more out of three. Santana and Liriano together would have made them really scary, though.

Sorry to jump in late, but all I can say is... HOORAY!!!!!!!!

The Pirates need another power bat to go along with Bay. Their pitching is an enigma; they have more than enough talent, but Perez and (for the most part) Duke have gone in the wrong direction once they established themselves in the majors. They've been the anti-Tigers as far as getting the most out of their young arms goes. And they've made some terrible personnel decisions to boot. Perhaps they've figured something out with their pitching, though. We'll see.

He's not an easy decision. He could easily regress, given his age and the fact that this season could produce a career-high OPS, but he's earned at least strong consideration for a return engagement. A lot would depend on his asking price, and the other options and their asking prices.

You have to put Williams below Trachsel. At this point I'd be leaning to Maine for the rotation, but I couldn't keep Trachsel off the roster. Certainly you look elsewhere for pitching next year.

A Boy Named Seo wrote: You could argue that he hasn't kept Pedro and Glavine healthy, but you'd lose that argument quickly. Also, Kazmir's recent shoulder woes make you wonder if Peterson really did see something or if that's just a crappy coincidence for poor Scotty. You would lose that argument very quickly, but I think I remember somebody on the site making that argument when Pedro first went down. I might be confusing his injury with Zambrano's, although that injury may have been a blessing in disguise. I got the impression that Kazmir would be pitching if the games meant anything for Tampa, so I don't know if I'd read that much into it unless the shoulder becomes an issue again for him next year.

Things are different when you win. You could argue that he hasn't kept Pedro and Glavine healthy, but when you look at what the Mets have gotten out of a whole litany of pitchers that nobody really had the right to expect much from, I can't see how you can deny him some sort of credit. The staff has outperformed my expectations (taking this year's injuries into consideration) for three years in a row, and I don't see what else I can use to judge the guy.

I've liked the challenge of 17 teams, actually. I'd like to go 7x7, with OBP and SLG added for offense and losses and homers added for pitchers. I felt there wasn't enough disincentive to stockpiling starting pitchers (at least before Liriano went on the pine and my other starters all forgot how to pitch -- I can't even get an OK start from most of my guys these days). I was fine with 5x5 though, and I get the feeling that reaching a consensus on an alternative will be difficult to achieve if the league has a similar size next year.

Until baseball finds a way to test for HGH and anything else being used by athletes, you can't make any assumptions about guys being cleaner now. So don't go there. As far as the records are concerned, the league and the fans wanted more home runs, most people cheered loudly while looking the other way, and we got what collectively we asked for. And singling specific people out for essentially being better players than the other abusers is unfair as well. What's done is done.

I can add some twangy 12-string, but if somebody's bringing a bodhran my bouzouki might be more appropriate.

Have fun. People will probably be parking for baseball/tennis farther away than your hotel, so there's no reason not to walk it. Can't help you with the cabs, though.

I just dealt a closer, and I don't think I can afford to part with a second one. Then again, I wasn't planning to deal Jones either, so I guess I can be swayed. Good hitting outfielders are really hard to find. A couple of weeks ago I looked at the rosters to see if anybody would conceivably take Jose Valentin for an OF with a better bat, and came up with no good ideas.

My parents were there that day. According to my father, you could hear the first three notes of each song, but once everybody recognized it that was it. I'd have no problem putting up a handful of monuments marking specific moments in the stadium's history, and the Beatles concert would certainly qualify.

The Mets needed Heilman to step up, and he most certainly has.

willpie wrote: Wait, are you guys saying I'm not still in this thing? I went from 14th to 3rd in the month of June, and abogdan had an amazing July (and has managed to hold on to the SB lead despite dealing Reyes, which I didn't think was possible), so big moves can happen. It just gets harder as the season goes on. As for me, I was thinking there was a playoff like Zvon, so my goal was a top 6 finish. I'll still consider that a good year, especially given how bad my first two months were. More than that would be nice, of course...

I don't get this one. I'm not sure how he's an upgrade over any of our relievers at this point.

At this point, I'll settle for one of Pedro or Glavine pitching in October. Crap.

Kaz is hitting .272 at Colorado Springs with three home runs. He hasn't played with the Rockies at any point since the trade. The two reserves I neglected to mention earlier: Infielder Jason Smith (5 HR, 13 RBI, .265/.327/.429), and outfileder Choo Freeman (2 HR, 15 RBI, .248/.310/.359) Yes, the Rockies' 4.09 team ERA is indeed first in the NL, and second in the majors behind Detroit. Their 549 runs rank 10th in the NL and 22nd overall. Their .758 OPS ranks 8th in th NL and 16th overall.

The Colorado Rockies These numbers are as of Thursday morning. 58-62, .483 4th place in the NL West, 5.5 games behind the Dodgers, 4 games behind the Reds for the wild card. News: The Rockies brought back long-time third baseman Vinny Castilla earlier in the week; at last check he was on a minor league assignment for them. The more pressing news is the day-to-day status of their best hitter Matt Holliday, who was hit in the wrist by a pitch earlier in the week. So who are these guys, and how have they managed to stay in contention? Well, the team is largely home-grown, and humidor or not, they've developed some pitchers who can survive playing half their games in Coors Field with their numbers intact. I'm not sure the humidor explains everything about the downturn in offense at the Rockies' home park -- the latest example of which was an 18-inning game on Tuesday that the Rockies lost to the D-Backs by a score of 2-1 -- but I'll leave it to the person covering the KTE when the Mets go out there to expound on that. The position players: Catcher: Yorvit Torrealba (5 HR, 39 RBI, .253 BA/.301 OBP/.424 SLG) has been getting most of the starts lately. The very weak-hitting Danny Ardoin (0 HR and 2 RBI in 105 AB, .190/.261./.257; I'm assuming his glove is really good) is the back-up. First base: Todd Helton (12 HR, 58 RBI, .297/.409/.483). The one "name" player in the line-up. Having an OK year by his standards. The Rockies have to be concerned that a decline is starting, as they will owe Helton $19.1M in 2011. Second base: Jamey Carroll (61 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, .301/.383/.400). He has a rock-solid OBP at the top of the Rockies' batting order, but the 10 for 20 in steals makes you want him to try to run if he gets on. Shortstop: Clint Barmes (7 HR, 54 RBI, .236/.273/.363). Had the great start followed by the bizarre injury last year, and has done little right at the plate since. Third base: Garrett Atkins (19 HR, 81 RBI, .305/.381/.516). Very quietly having a great season. Left field: Matt Holliday (22 HR, 71 RBI, .327/.378/.570). Very quietly having an even better season than Atkins. If his wrist is still an issue, look for the less threatening Luis A. Gonzalez (.250/.274/.371) and Ryan Spillborghs (.290/.330/.460) to platoon. Center field: Cory Sullivan (10 triples, 1 HR 18 RBI, .276/.321/.411). Has shown no pop, and the good speed implied by the 10 triples has not helped him steal bases (only 7 for 12). Spillborghs might play center against a lefty if Holliday is OK. Right field: Brad Hawpe (17 HR, 57 RBI, .299/.385/.514). Another solid bat in the line-up. The pitching match-ups: Friday, 7:10: Byung-Hyun Kim (7-7, 4.65 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 112.1 IP, 12 HR, 91 K) vs Steve Trachsel. For all his misadventures, Kim is still around, and is capable of a decent outing. Saturday, 7:35: Jeff Francis (9-9, 3.39, 1.17, 154 IP, 14 HR, 94 K) vs. emergency Pedro replacement. I don't know who's in this spot for the Mets -- possibly Dave Williams as a call-up -- but this does not look like a good match-up for the Mets regardless. Sunday, 1:10: Jason Jennings (7-9, 3.34, 1.28, 172.2 IP, 14 HR, 118 K) vs. Orlando Hernandez. El Duque gets the staff ace. The starters we're missing: Aaron Cook (8-11, 4.09, 1.42, 167.1 IP, 12 HR, 66 K) Josh Fogg (8-7, 4.59, 1.46, 133.1 IP, 18 HR, 68 K) The bullpen: Brian Fuentes (3-3, 23 SV, 3.35, 1.08, 48.1 IP, 5 HR, 58 K). He brings it. His ERA is rather high given his otherwise excellent peripherals, but he appears to be doing the job. Ramon Ramirez (3-3, 2.90, 1.05, 49.2 IP, 2 HR, 50 K). A solid young set-up guy who appears capable of challenging Francis for the closer role at some point. Jose Mesa (0-5, 3.59, 1.59, 52.2 IP, 5 HR, 29 K). Not the guy you'd expect to be leading the pen in innings. He hasn't been dreadful, but he hasn't been that good either. I think the Mets want to see this guy get the ball instead of Ramirez. Manuel Corpas (0-1, 2.25, 1.08, 12 IP, 1 HR, 15 K). He's had a great first month in the majors. Jeremy Affeldt (7-6, 5.45, 1.53, 77.2 IP, 10 HR, 34 K). He's been used as a lefty out of the pen since the trade that brought him here from Kansas City, and already has three wins to show for 7 innings of work. Tom Martin (2-0, 4.47, 1.40, 44.1 IP, 3 HR, 34 K). Like a lot of veteran lefties, he's played for a lot of different teams, including the Mets in 2001. Ray King (1-3, 4.22, 1.63, 32 IP, 3 HR, 15 K). Strictly a situational lefty, as righties have a .931 OPS against him.

Delgado has been playing like he's not 100% physically, and I'd be more than a little concerned about that. Some rest for him might not be such a bad idea. Wright went through a cold spell earlier in the season too, but got over it quickly enough. He can be streaky, but on the whole he's still having a great year. I don't see a real reason to worry there. I'm much more worried about having four starting pitchers I can trust come October. These last two starts were UGLY.

I don't see how you could put Beltran ahead of Valentin for this award. You could even make a better case than Beltran for Endy Chavez, who like Valentin looked like he was on his way out of the league. Beltran is certainly a lot better this year than last, but I don't see how his 2005 was so bad that he qualifies for this award.

Moot point. Walker pops up, side retired.