nymr83

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Negative points would kill a guy like Looper. When he gets a save, he usually gets about 1 point, because all he did was pitch one inning. But when he blows one, you could argue that he singlehandedly cost the Mets the game, so he'd be sure to get some -5's. Theoretically, if he saved 5 out of every 6 games, he'd end up with a net total of zero points. limit it to -1 per player per game. also, if a closer saves a 1 run game he'll get more credit out of me than "saving" the 3-0 lead (in whch case he is unlikely to even see a point out of me if the starter went 8 scoreless)

excellent work by frayed knot and mets marathon, i love when i dont have to look the numbers up myself.

it is DEFINETALY far above 50%. an out is more valuable to the defense than a base is to the offense.

but jacobs, who was presumably productive in a majority of his games, doesn't have (many) games that DETRACT from their season-long contribution as of where mediocrities/scrubs (whichever you prefer to call them) don't lose any pts in this system for those bad games in which they hurt the team. potential solution: 10 pts per game, but you could grant up to 15 while giving -5.

why would we discriminate against astros fans? yankee and brave fans may not vote.

i now have wireless access at school...so i'll be getting less work done and you'll be hearing more from me, this is truly a lose-lose situation.

By this rationale, you should give Jacobs the same rating as someone who played exactly the same as he did but over the entire year. And that obviously wouldn't work. nope. quality > quantity doesn't mean quality + quantity = quality. So Matsui and Cairo get points for playing the whole year, but lose some for playing at an average or below average level. Jacobs gets points for playing at an above average level, but loses some for only playing for a short timespan. untrue. jacobs cant get pts in games he didnt play, but until we start allowing negative pts for all the times castro took an 0-4 the system will heavily bias quantity over quality, which i dont like.

Mientkiewicz: 4.8 Matsui: 2.7 Cairo: -1.7 ok, so i'll revise my statement, they are all below or marginally above relacement level. ok, defense isn't taken into account so mintky is probably a bit more valuable than this and the 2 blackholes at 2b a bit rse.

Elster88 wrote: This is, IMHO, a terrible way to look at things. Was Cairo's year long contribution less valuable to the team than Jacobs' 1.5 months? Of course not. of course it was. jacobs gave the mets a good chance to win when he played, cairo didn't. it isn't jacobs' fault that he didnt play more or that his platoon mates sucked ass. yancy- good idea, though i'd think we need ard cap on a loss too, say 8 the problem with 5-10 is we'll be valualing some losses way more than others, and i thought the idea was to value all games the same. dickshot- good idea, i like rate statitistics better than raw counting stats anyway, so a per game deal is definetaly something i like. Were Mientkiewicz, Cairo, and Matsui all indeed below replacement level? By what measure? that chart that was posted on mets OPS by position compared to the league seemed to make this obvious to me, i would be happy to go through the numbers tonight when i get home if you wish to argue this point however.

Johnny Dickshot wrote: I also thought about applying a multiple of some kind -- perhaps something as small as the team's winning percentage -- afterward to games won as a means of cutting down guys who score big because of a lack of competition in games the team plays poorly in. Longevity counts for something. Whether a guy accumulates points on merit or not is not in our hands. these are two issues on which i know reasonable people can and will disagree. is your output still as meaningful if the team loses? my answer has to be yes, and the best example is a starting pitcher who leaves for a pinch hitter without having allowed a run in a 0-0 game. whether they win or lose it doesnt change the contribution that he made. on the other end of this spectrum i can see not wanting to reward the guy who homers in a losing cause to turn the 10-1 loss into a 10-2 loss. so i'd be all for playing around with multiples after the fact simply for our amusement...but i'd hate to do it the first time around and then not have data that didnt distinuguish btwn win/loss. as far as longevity goes.. replacement level players are assumed to be readily available. when a player's production, in limited time, combined with a replacement level player's production in the remaining time, is better than the production of another player in full time i have to consider the 1st player more valuable. examples? Seo (13th) was imo more important than zambrano and possibly benson (i dont have benson's numbers in front of me so i won't commit to that position.) Mientkiewicz, Cairo, and Matsui, by virtue of themselves being below "replacement level" can not possibly me more valuable than anyone who made a positive contribution to the mets in 2005 (Jacobs being a prime example.) one more thing- i still think there is an inherent bias against starting pitchers in this methodology. The Mets were alot more successful at preventing runs than they were at scoring them, yet pitchers appear at positions 3, 6, 8, 9, 12, & 13 while hitters occupy slots 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, & 11 (i used the top 13 because we can reasonably expect the 8 starting players and 5 starting pitchers to be the 13 most important players, but i wouldnt object to using the top 10 or 15 or whatever in this conversation.)

the REVISED offseason schedule to be anounced next week after the yankees are out of the playoffs: November ? - Free Agency Period begins November ? +1 - Steinbrenner signs top free agent pitcher November ? +2 - Steinbrenner signs 2nd best free agent pitcher December 5-8 - Winter Meetings in Dallas December 6th- Steinbrenner trades Robinson Cano and Chin Wang for Andruw Jones to play CF for the yankees. anounces need for new 2B December 9th- Steinbrenner trades ptbnl + lots and lots of cash for Alfonzo Soriano. Mets offseason checklist/schedule: November: -make embarrasingly lowball offer to mike piazza, anounce intention not to resign him. - sign ramon hernandez for 3 times the next highest offer, hey he's hispanic! December: - quietly deal Looper and winter meetings for minor leaguers. - watch as Billy Wagner and BJ Ryan sign elsewhere for very reasonable amounts of money, claiming that our youngsters are ready to step up in the bullpen (these same youngsters will thenbe demoted in march in favor of veteran scrubs) - watch Konerko sign elsewhere with the mantra "don't wory, we'll trade for Manny" January: - Manny trade falls apart, mets PR people say not to worry, that Beltran's bounce back year will win the Mets 10 extra games. - Mets deal Matsui to Detroit for ptbnl. March: - Mets enter spring training with the slogan "addition by subtraction mean playoffs now"

i doubt basestealing is meaningless, but in the long run it is not as beneficial as some would like to believe abd is only beneficial for as long as your percentage is high...i dont feel like checking the studies for the correct number but i'd imagine its in the 75% area. this doesnt take into account situations where you get credited for a CS when you werent stealing (failed hit and run.) it also doesn't take into account situations where the necessary success % is lower (2 outs runner on 1st, stealing 2nd comes to mind) or higher (1st and 3rd 1 out, where getting caught at second prevents the guy on 3rd from scoring on an out) in the end i'd build a team around pitching, defense, and obp. if i get players (like carlos beltran, david wright) who can do these things while also adding some steals then great. but if my guys do the other things well but cant steal (john olerud, keither hernandez both come to mind) i could care less about a lack of steals. put another way- if given the choice, i'd rather see reyes lose a bunch of steals and get on base alot more often.

is Benitez #25 or #28? you listed him as the correct answer to both.

congratulations to Wright on an honor he is unlikely to find out about and even less likely to care about. i liked the idea, though i stopped voting halfway through after falling behind and deciding i didnt care to catch up. last year's polling method was simpler but lacked the ability to award the 2nd best player in a given game. i liked this better. obviously we could, and may very well, spend the whole offseason debating a method for POTG for next year, but under the assumption that this will be the method here's the few minor changes i'd like to see: 1. ballot must must must add up to ten points or they will be discarded. 2. at first i liked the idea of only allowing 1/2 or 1/4 points as fractions, the only thing that changed my mind is if some stats-freak decided to make a spreadsheet to plug the box score into and determine his points through mathematical formulas rather than more prejudiced personal choices (i have to think that for alot of people here David Wright's or Mike Piazza's 2 for 4 buys them more points than Kaz Matsui or Miguel Cairo's 2 for 4, even if unconsciously) a few potential problems with this system: i still feel pitchers get the short end of the stick here overall. the system rewards long-term mediocrity over short-term greatness...are people ok with this? i suppose this is back to the HOF argument but i for one favor quality. i think that starting 15 games and pitching great is much more helpful to a team than starting 30 games and pitching just above average. why? because a replacement level player can still start those other 15 games and the combined efforts will be better than the guy who started 30 in alot of cases. GREAT JOB by our resident fantastic four fan....its clobberin time!

1) sure. if manny is available go get him. 2) yes. get a veteran established closer. 3) no thanks. ramon will command too much money and i think he's both a health risk and not as good as i thought he was prior to this year. 4) no thanks. the mets dont need starting pitching and would be best served spending money elsewhere. 5) IF we decide to hand the job to jacobs then a veteran presence makes sense, i'm the world's biggest olerud fan too. 6) i'd like to bring hernandez back BUT at his age i'd hate for anyone to think that he'll repeat this incredible year. don't plan on making him the 2nd most important guy in the pen again. 7) i want to get rid of matsui and cairo very badly. i'd like to bring back ONE of woodward/anderson but i think both is a bit redundant. lineup- i'd love to see the lineup you projected, except the catching position. also if we cant get manny i want a big bat at 1b, sorry jacobs. rotation- i will be upset with any rotation that doesnt include jae seo. i wouldn't mind trading zambrano for bullpen help or in a manny trade, re-upping traschel sounds good too. my rotation would be- martinez, glavine, benson, seo, traschel with heilman waiting for anyone to screw up. bullpen- sign a closer, hernandez, heilman, bell, and let young guys fight it out for the remaining spots. bench- Diaz, Woodward OR Anderson, a veteran backup to jacobs OR jacobs, backup catcher (castro unless he is starting) this might leave us short a shortstop which is one reason to prefer woodard to anderson. not too concerned with backing up 3B...he'll play 155+ i hope. you MUST keep Diaz on this team unless he is needed to get manny. with floyd and cameron out there an injury will come. now for who i DONT want to see on this team: 1. matsui 2. cairo 3. ishii 4. willie....ok i know i cant have that 5. anyone over the age of 35 that doesn't have a potentially productive bat (this means you, gerald williams) 6. any "veteran" reliever whose only "advantage" over our kids is that they've played alot (and proven that they shouldn't play much more)

]12. The downright lousy game I tossed in my final Met appearance was overshadowed by controversy. I soon left as a free agent. Rick Reed? ]25. In my last appearance for the Mets, I blew a save, but got a win. They booed me not out of town, just across it. Armando Benitez? ]30. I was once a solid Met contributor, but by August of this year I had lost starting assignments in the outfield and at first base and was relegated to pinch-hitting. That’s what I did in my final Met appearance: I popped out pinch-hitting to make the last out of a game, and was traded to Philadelphia the next day Rico Brogna?

i'd still try to trade a pitcher for shoppach, and the mets need to add a bat that isn't here now whether in RF, 1B, or elsewhere without subtracting a good bat. Jacobs might be fine at 1st if you still had piazza in his prime and a good 2B but right now the mets are near the bottom at 1B, 2B and potentially C....thats not a good way to start next year. i do like Jacobs but unless we get Manny in RF i'm not sure we can afford to be playing jacobs, castro, and whoever starts at 2b all in the same lineup with cameron coming off the injury and floyd likely to decline.

i wanted to find someone to platoon with castroanyway, if piazza is CHEAP then fine, but i dont want to see him getting a gauranteed 5 or 6 mil just because of his name.

Torborg and Howe are both above the guys you listed to me. they were both given alot more to work with than the guys on the list.

maybe a few of you old folks dont remeber being 22...well i do, because i am. i'm more mature now than i was at 20 and can only assume that at 24 i'll look back and realize i'm not very mature now either. the marlins would be IDIOTS to give up on him rather than try to correct any poor behavior.

our bullpen is misused at best. their "good" stats would only show that everyone is in the wrong role. also where are inherited runners? thats one of the most important things...

]What kind of first base can he play? i couldn't have put it better myself. the mets dont need starting pitching so unless the second coming of pedro becomes available please please please focus on 1B, 2B, and C and what can best be done at those positions either through free agency, trades, or internal promotion (no move can often be the best move when the "veterans" out there are not likely to outhit the kids you already have)

]but the core element is taking care of Pedro for the Mets' sake, not somebody else's race thats really all that needs to be said. someone please show us how it is not in the METS interest to shut him down. i don't think this has anythig to do with his being a "diva." if the 2 starts he is going to miss mattered for the mets he'd be making them and thats what counts. there is no reason to play an "injury prone" veteran the last week of a wasted season. i'd go so far as to say shutting down floyd as a precaution might not hurt either, except that we may wish to trade him and wouldn't want other teams to get the wrong idea.

-pedro hasn't thrown this many innings in 4 years -pedro may be somewhat hurt -pedro has always controlled his own schedule -the mets are paying him for 3 more years and should protect their investment the mets have every right to shut him down and that is the bottom line. they should be ripped a new one if he DIDNT sit.

with 8 remaining the mets weould have to win out to hit my expected win total. i'll be happy with 5-3.