For all his accomplishments in Japan (some of which, like 200 pitches on 3 days rest in a high school game might raise concerns) he is still a guy with 0 major league innings under his belt, for that reason alone paying him that much money isn't a decision i'd normally expect to see made but oh well, its not my team's money. As far as the "prisoner's dilemma" goes, I don't really like the analogy here. Also, the article gets part of it WRONG: ]The dilemma resides in the fact that each prisoner has a choice between only two options, but cannot make a good decision without knowing what the other one will do. Even knowing "what the other one will do" does not solve the dilemma. here's an example: -Prisoner A and Prisoner B rob a bank with illegal guns. -robbing a bank carries a 10 year sentence -illegal possession of a gun carries a 3 year sentence -the prosecutor tells them both that if they both confess he will ask that the sentences for the two crimes be served concurrently (combined jail time: 20 years) if one confesses, he will get probation only and the other will serve the two terms consecutively (combined jail time: 13 years) if neither confesses he will nail them with the gun crimes but doesnt have the evidence to convict on the robbery (combined jail time: 6 years) -it is clearly in their combined best interest to both not confess -let's say the prosecutor allows them to talk before making their decisions, and they agree with each other to remain silent -after that discussion here are prisoner A's options: 1. if he believes B will confess, he had best confess himself to serve 10 years instead of 13. 2. if he believes B will not confess, he should still confess himself to serve nothing instead of 3 years. -the same is true for B, and so they will both (if acting rationally) confess despit their assurances to the contrary to each other. This works in a business context as well, most notably with cartels or other horizontal agreements on price or output levels- no matter what you expect the others to do it is always best for you to "cheat" on the agreement