nymr83

even ifhis ERA drops half a run he's still a disaster at that price.

thats nothing, way to get hosed Zona.

it really makes no sense, the prospects might not be that great but Vizcaino is something. Considering how Johnson pitched this past year and his age I wouldn't take him unless the Yankees took on the entire salary. Why relieve the Yankees of that salary burden? if anything they should be throwing in a top prospect to get rid of the salary.

]Trachsel was good enough last year i don't think a 5 ERA is ever "good enough," when someone that age puts up an ERA that high its time to part ways. i'd be interested (but i'm lazy) in the rebound rates, based on age, of pitcher's who had a bad year (bad by their own standards, like an ERA at least half a run higher than their career avg.) it seems pretty intuitive that the older you get the less likely you are to revert to your career avg or better the following year, but i'm not sure if anyone has ever crunched the numbers and it would be a hell of a project.

i have a weird feeling that Weaver would get it done here. I'd rather take a shot on Mulder, yes he was horrible last year, but he's 29 and has more upside than anyone but the rocket on that list. I'd avoid talking to Clemens on principle (of course I'd have avoided Mota on principle too.)

the stats are pretty sad, i suppose we need some filler at AAA?

]In the group we've selected (ERA qualifiers) it's practically impossible (other than by selecting specifically for it) two groups of pitchers who will have a greater ERA difference than we have here. try WHIP.

i think Maine is 2nd and Pelfrey is already ahead of Williams. Heilman is interesting, if the rest of the bullpen is doing well in April but some starters are struggling how many guys need to fail for Heilman to be moved? I'd try him out as a starter before I'd go to Vargas for sure. Is Humber or Soler going to get an extended look before him? One thing I wouldn't do is have him make a spot start when he's the 7th/8th inning guy. If they're going to move him to the rotation it should last at least a few weeks, and it might entail a trip to AA first to stretch him out in a couple of minor league games.

evryone on that list is either flat-out better than traschel or ALOT younger (and therfore more likely to rebound)

i don't want to bash traschel's Met-career right now, I just want to make sure he isn't being brought back because 2006 was bad and 2007 isn't looking any more promising

]What gives stats a bad name is a pigheaded refjection of easy--to-understand stats (Ws. HRs. RBIs) in favor of arcane impossible-to-understand without a slide rule and a sextant in reaching a general conclusion. in other words, we should only use numbers that are dumbed down enough for people like you? got it. as for Pedro and 70 wins over 4 years its still a TEAM stat, Randy Johnson won 17 games this year and pitched like a total piece of shit, but by your logic he must have done great.

Whitaker and Sandberg do look a heck of alot like the same player. Whitaker walked alot more, he also got caught stealing too often (at 65% its time for the manager to give you a permanent red light), Sandberg barely out-slugged him. Sandberg was the MVP once and 4th twice, Whitaker was 8th once and thats it. Maybe Sandberg is better, but better enough to get in while Whitaker doesn't even get a 2nd year of consideration? no way. Another good comparison to both of them, imo, is Roberto Alomar, is he a hall of famer? is it debatable?

the award is named for Young because he died shortly before it was first awarded, it should have been named for Christy Matthewson.

Wins are a very poor indicator of individual success or talent. Here are the top 10 winners in 2006 along with the top 10 in other pitching categories. Wins- Santana, Wang, Garland, Garcia, Johnson, Rogers, Verlander, Beckett, Blanton, Halladay. ERA- Santana, Oswalt, Carpenter, Webb, Halladay, Sabathia, Arroyo, Zambrano, Young, Smoltz WHIP- Santana, Carpenter, Mussina, Halladay, Webb, Young, Bush, Oswalt, Sabathia, Arroyo IP- Arroyo, Webb, Harang, Santana, Smoltz, Willis, Haren, Carpenter, Capuano, Zito K/BB ratio- Schilling, Santana, Mussina, Bush, Oswalt, Carpenter, Lieber, Haren, Sabathia, Halladay I'd take the 10 guys on any of these other lists over the ten on the wins list. not suprisingly, the Wins list is the one most dominated by players on winning teams, thats because WINS IS A TEAM STAT and not very indicative of an individual's performance.

]Only in small groups. It's idiotic to say that a guy who won 16 games is twice the pitcher as a guy who won 8 in a particular season, but in big samples such as we're discussing here, wins become significant indicators of success No, they don't. They become indicators of longevity when looking at a career and maybe of good health when looking at a player over afew seasons, but they still don't do anything to indicate the quality of performance.

since wins are as much dependant on run support as they are on how the guy pitches i'd find that to be a pointless exercise.

if you look closer you'd see that Blanton allowed alot of HITS this past year but not a high amount of walks, hits tend to be more random and could easily be the result of bad luck... i'd be happy to get him if the price is Milledge straight up. Beane can keep the guy if he wants more.

calculus has a right answer, these questions don't have absolute rights and wrongs, though some positions are alot more right or wrong than others.

I'm not comfortable with Oliver higher than Bradford and especially Heilman Oliver threw 81 mostly low-leverage innings . (70 hits, 21 walks, 1.123 WHIP, 60 k's, 3.44 ERA) Bradford threw 62 innings many of which were low leverage and many of which were in key spots with runners on base if i recall correctly. (59 hits, 13 walks, 1.161 WHIP, 45 k's, 2.90 ERA) Heilman threw 87 innings, more important innings than anyone but Wagner if i remember correctly. (73 hits, 23 walks, 1.161 WHIP, 73 k's, 3.61 ERA) each allowed 2 unearned runs so thats not much of a factor here, i seem to remember Bradford stranding alot of OTHER guys' runners on base (and i have the feeling alot of them belonged to Feliciano) but i can't find inherited runners stats on baseball-reference.com I think between the 3 of them Heilman was clearly the most important to the team when you consider that neither of the other guys pitched better than him and he undoubtedly pitched more important innings. the inning gap between Oliver and Bradford may be reason enough for some to drop him below Oliver, i could go either way.

I wasn't saying Boras was the story here, Meche's deal has me rolling my eyes alot more than anything else. Giving Zito extra years may prove to be a foolish decision (i think it will) but at least you're getting the pitcher you needed for the beginning of the contract, the Giants apparently felt it was worth risking the extra years, but what incentive is there to give all those years and all that money to Gil Meche? if Meche turned down my 2 or 3 year offer I'd tell him to look elsewhere, there were 10-15 pitchers better than him available this offseason and thats being generous to him.

I didn't know who Meche's agent was, but if i'm a mediocre pitcher i want him to be mine. Boras seems to get good players more than they deserve... but getting 55 million for a Gil Meche is miraculous.

rather than weighing it with a number, since i'd be unsure what number to use, i make my regular season list (with tiers) and bump guys up and down based on the postseason, with a very good or very bad postseason needed to move to a different tier.

Well I think Matsuzaka ended up with as much as you could expect for a guy who could only talk to one team. He definetaly took the Giants for a ride on Zito, I hadn't even heard talk of 7 years until the deal was anounced.

can i get sone action against Lima too?

you either mislabeled the chart, or pulled things out of your ... those arent my rankings, maybe the user names are in the wrong places?