]But it shouldn't be overlooked (but is in most pitching stats) that the third out of every inning is more inportant than the first two, because it's the only out that erases baserunners. thats a good point. ]david wright had an awful april this year. would you rather he have an awful september instead? if that meant the Mets would have won more then (and by consequence been up more games in the standings now) it may have been worth it. ]look at it this way. at the end of the season, if you had a 0.333 batting average, you could say that at any point in the season, you had a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit. but if you entered an at bat with a 0.300 batting average during the season, you would think that your chances of getting a hit were only 3 in 10. only after the at bat do you know what your probability of getting a hit there really was by that logic you don't know your chances of winning the game until its over either and your next paragraph makes no sense. your expected win% tables are as useless going into an inning as you'd say a player's BA is going into an AB. ]but you may be wrong. and you may enter the ninth with still only that one run lead, and your best reliever has already been used up. and then, was the 7th inning really all that important in retrospect? you can't go back and a manage a game in retrospect. bring your best reliever in at what you BELIEVE is the most important part of the game AT THE TIME... you say you might still only have a 1 run lead later, well i say you might have no lead at all if you let Mota face Utley, Burrell, & Howard in the 8th because "omg iz not te 9th i cant uze wagnor!"