Benjamin Grimm

Okay, so if the Dodgers beat Arizona, the day will be a wash. More or less.

Manfred recently said that he's become optimistic that the Rays will stay in Tampa/St. Pete. I don't know what he based that one because the article was behind a firewall; I was just able to read the first paragraph. It seems likely that one of the two expansion teams will be in the west, Portland or Salt Lake City. Maybe both, but it seems like Tennessee or North Carolina also have a pretty good shot.

If it was a one-game race, meaning the Mets were one game ahead of both the Reds and the Diamondbacks on Sunday morning, there are three games to be played, and eight possible outcomes: 1. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks win 2. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose 3. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win 4. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose 5. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks win 6. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose 7. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win 8. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 put the Mets in the playoffs, which makes their chance 62.5 percent. (Five out of eight.) With five games remaining, and 32,768 possibilities, it's seemingly more complicated, but the same rules apply.

This is what Microsoft Copilot has to say: 🧮 Total Scenarios Each of the 15 remaining games (5 per team × 3 teams) has 2 outcomes → 2^15 = 32,768 total scenarios 🎯 Goal Count how many of those scenarios satisfy: Mets win ≥ Reds wins Mets win ≥ Diamondbacks wins 🧠 Strategy We’ll iterate over all possible win totals for each team (0 to 5 wins), and count how many combinations satisfy the condition. Let’s define: 𝑀 : Mets wins (0–5) 𝑅 : Reds wins (0–5) 𝐷 : Diamondbacks wins (0–5) Each team’s 5 games have: (5/𝑘) ways to win 𝑘 games So total combinations for a given (M, R, D) triple: (5/𝑀)⋅(5/𝑅)⋅(5/𝐷) We sum over all triples where 𝑀≥𝑅 and 𝑀≥𝐷 ✅ Valid Triples Let’s compute the total: plaintext For M = 0: R = 0, D = 0 → 1×1×1 = 1 For M = 1: R = 0–1, D = 0–1 → 2×2 = 4 For M = 2: R = 0–2, D = 0–2 → 3×3 = 9 For M = 3: R = 0–3, D = 0–3 → 4×4 = 16 For M = 4: R = 0–4, D = 0–4 → 5×5 = 25 For M = 5: R = 0–5, D = 0–5 → 6×6 = 36 Now weight each by the number of ways to get that win count: {Complicated formula that doesn't paste well} Let’s compute that: M Ways (M) Valid R Valid D Total Combos 0 1 1 1 1×1×1 = 1 1 5 1+5=6 1+5=6 5×6×6 = 180 2 10 1+5+10=16 1+5+10=16 10×16×16 = 2,560 3 10 1+5+10+10=26 same 10×26×26 = 6,760 4 5 1+5+10+10+5=31 same 5×31×31 = 4,805 5 1 1+5+10+10+5+1=32 same 1×32×32 = 1,024 🔢 Final Total 1+180+2,560+6,760+4,805+1,024=15,330 ✅ Answer Out of 32,768 possible scenarios, there are 15,330 where the Mets win as many or more games than both the Reds and Diamondbacks.

For the 15 games, there are 32,768 possible outcomes. Some of these will have the outcome you mentioned, where there are days when the Mets win and the Diamondbacks and Reds both lose. And there are others where that won't happen. But you can look at each of the 32,768 combinations and determine in how many the Mets win the wild card, and in how many it's the Reds or the Diamondbacks.

You're so old-fashioned! You don't need to be married to have kids! I think what FK is doing is he's seeing all of the possible combinations of outcomes of the 15 games remaining among the Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks. And since none of these teams play each other, each outcome is independent of the others.

It looks like Griffin Canning was a good find, but unfortunately he got hurt early. Turning Clay Holmes into a starter could have gone better, but it wasn't a disaster. He's pitched well (3.69 ERA in 158.2 innings) but he makes too many early exits. Trading for Helsley looked good but turned out poorly. Jose Quintana has made 24 starts, with a 3.96 ERA in 131.2 innings. Luis Severino 28 starts, 4.72 ERA, 156.1 innings. Either one of them would have been better than Frankie Montas.

The Mets are once again sitting in a playoff spot, so let's take a fresh look at the numbers. The Mets no longer have to worry about the Giants. At best, they can finish in a tie with the Mets and the Mets have the tiebreaker. However, the Giants aren't necessarily eliminated. If there's a three-way or four-way tie at 81-81 that includes the Mets and Giants, along with the Reds and/or Diamondbacks, the Giants may be able to emerge from that mess. Who knows? The Mets are one game ahead of both Cincinnati and Arizona, both of whom own the tiebreaker advantage over the Mets. The Mets have to avoid losing more games than either team over the last five games. I'm not optimistic, but I'm hopeful. Let's see what happens! We really have no other alternatives. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 5 Cincinnati Reds 5 St. Louis Cardinals 1 San Francisco Giants 0 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets. Meanwhile, it's the third wild-card spot or nothing, as the Padres have clinched a better record than the Mets. Current Playoff Odds: [table][tr][th][/th][th]FanGraphs[/th][th]Baseball Reference[/th][/tr][tr][th]Mets[/th][td]67.4[/td][td]50.7[/td][/tr][tr][th]Arizona[/th][td]10.9[/td][td]24.9[/td][/tr][tr][th]San Francisco[/th][td]0.0[/td][td]<0.1[/td][/tr][tr][th]Cincinnati[/th][td]21.4[/td][td]24.9[/td][/tr][tr][th]St. Louis[/th][td]0.1[/td][td]< 0.1[/td][/tr][/table]

So what happens if the shortstop yells "Challenge it!" ? Or if the shortstop yells "French Onion Soup!" and the pitcher knows that that's a secret code for "Challenge It!"

I think Jet Williams and Carson Benge are the most likely internal candidates. I suppose another option would be to put McNeil in the outfield and let someone else (Acuna, Baty, Mauricio, external option) replace Jeff in the infield.

I'd be inclined to keep the first base coach. It appears he's figured out something about when is the best time to steal second base. But it's hard to say that any of the others have made a meaningful positive contribution to the team. I don't know if Mendoza comes back or not. I wouldn't be surprised either way.

I guess Siri, Taylor, and Mullens could be categorized as dead weight, but I really think it's been the collapse of the starting rotation that's been the real problem. Going into the season I worried that they didn't have enough depth in the pitching staff, and the first few months of the season seemed to disprove that. But it's hard to hide a weakness over 162 games, and it caught up with them. (EDIT: I posted the above before I saw FK's post.)

Yesterday: Mets won. Reds won. Giants lost. Diamondbacks lost. Cardinals won. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 6 Cincinnati Reds 7 San Francisco Giants 4 St. Louis Cardinals 3 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets. Today: Mets host the Nationals. Diamondbacks host the Phillies. Reds host the Cubs. Giants visit the Dodgers. Cardinals host the Brewers. Meanwhile, the Padres magic number over the Mets to clinch that second wild card spot is 5. Current Playoff Odds: [table][tr][th][/th][th]FanGraphs[/th][th]Baseball Reference[/th][/tr][tr][th]Mets[/th][td]89.9[/td][td]76. 6[/td][/tr][tr][th]Arizona[/th][td]1.3[/td][td]5.3[/td][/tr][tr][th]San Francisco[/th][td]0.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][/tr][tr][th]Cincinnati[/th][td]8.9[/td][td]17.7[/td][/tr][tr][th]St. Louis[/th][td]0.1[/td][td]< 0.1[/td][/tr][/table]

Please note my second paragraph, above.

If the Mets can win six of the last nine games, however they're distributed, they'll be in very good shape. They can still make the playoffs with as few as zero wins, but let's hope they don't attempt that.

Yesterday: Mets won. Reds won. Giants lost. Diamondbacks and Cardinals were idle. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 8 Cincinnati Reds 8 San Francisco Giants 6 St. Louis Cardinals 4 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds have the advantage over the Mets And as Gwreck noted in another thread, there's no longer a possible scenario where the Mets win a tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. The magic numbers, therefore, are the amount of wins that the Mets need to match the most possible wins by the Giants or Cardinals, and the number they'd need to have one more than the most possible for the Diamondbacks or Reds. Tonight's action: Mets host the Nationals. Diamondbacks host the Phillies. Reds host the Cubs. Giants visit the Dodgers. Cardinals host the Brewers. If the Mets, Phillies, and Cubs all sweep this weekend (it could happen!), and the Dodgers win at least one out of three, the Mets could clinch a playoff spot as early as Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Padres magic number over the Mets to clinch that second wild card spot is 5. Current Playoff Odds: [table][tr][th][/th][th]FanGraphs[/th][th]Baseball Reference[/th][/tr][tr][th]Mets[/th][td]86.9[/td][td]71.9[/td][/tr][tr][th]Arizona[/th][td]4.5[/td][td]11.6[/td][/tr][tr][th]San Francisco[/th][td]1.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][/tr][tr][th]Cincinnati[/th][td]7.5[/td][td]12.7[/td][/tr][tr][th]St. Louis[/th][td]0.1[/td][td]< 0.1[/td][/tr][/table]

Yeah, that didn't last long.

The Mets won today, so all of these magic numbers will go down by at least one. Tonight the Reds will be hosting the Cubs and the Giants will be visiting the Dodgers. Diamondbacks are idle, and so are the Cardinals, though they're quickly ceasing to matter.

Yesterday: Mets lost. Giants and Reds won, Cardinals and Diamondbacks lost. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 9 (possibly 8 based on extended tiebreaker rules) Cincinnati Reds 9 San Francisco Giants 8 St. Louis Cardinals 5 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds have the advantage over the Mets The Mets/Diamondbacks tiebreaker is still TBD, but Arizona currently has the lead. Here's how it shakes out: The Mets are 23-23 against teams in their division. (Braves 5-8, Phillies 7-6, Marlins 5-5, Nationals 6-4). The Diamondbacks are 25-21 (Dodgers 5-5, Giants 7-6, Padres 5-5, Rockies 8-5). The Mets have six more games against division foes, three each against Miami and Washington. The Diamondbacks have six, three each against the Dodgers and Padres.

But I'm sure that part of that 99.4% has them in the third slot, behind the Mets.

We'll be in the rare position of rooting for the Phillies this weekend, as they'll be in Phoenix playing the Diamondbacks.

How does FanGraphs determine the odds? Baseball Reference does 1,000 simulations. Their odds also favor the Mets, but not as heavily. Mets 66.7 Arizona 23.1 Cincinnati 6.3 Giants 4.7 St. Louis 0.2

Last night, the Mets beat the Padres, the Cardinals defeated the Reds, and the Diamondbacks won their game against the Giants. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 10 (possibly 9 based on extended tiebreaker rules) Cincinnati Reds 9 San Francisco Giants 8 St. Louis Cardinals 6 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds have the advantage over the Mets The Mets/Diamondbacks tiebreaker is still TBD, but Arizona currently has the lead. Here's how it shakes out: The Mets are 23-23 against teams in their division. (Braves 5-8, Phillies 7-6, Marlins 5-5, Nationals 6-4). The Diamondbacks are 25-20 (Dodgers 5-5, Giants 7-5, Padres 5-5, Rockies 8-5). The Mets have six more games against division foes, three each against Miami and Washington. The Diamondbacks have seven, one against the Giants and three each against the Dodgers and Padres.

Last night, the Reds beat the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks defeated the Giants. The magic number over St. Louis and San Francisco thereby drop by one each. Mets Magic Number by team: Cincinnati Reds 11 Arizona Diamondbacks 11 (possibly 10 based on extended tiebreaker rules) San Francisco Giants 10 St. Louis Cardinals 7 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds have the advantage over the Mets The Mets/Diamondbacks tiebreaker is still TBD, but Arizona currently has the lead. Here's how it shakes out: The Mets are 23-23 against teams in their division. (Braves 5-8, Phillies 7-6, Marlins 5-5, Nationals 6-4). The Diamondbacks are 24-20 (Dodgers 5-5, Giants 6-5, Padres 5-5, Rockies 8-5). The Mets have six more games against division foes, three each against Miami and Washington. The Diamondbacks have eight, two against the Giants and three each against the Dodgers and Padres.

I hope that's accurate, but it doesn't feel like it. I think there's a decent enough likelihood that one of those three teams (Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks) will win two or more games than the Mets do the rest of the way.