Show Me Shohei O(h)tani

[Ceetar]

This guy! This guy is good. He hits! he pitches!

He's coming over as a pitcher though, the things I've read suggest that while he can hit it seems like he's not really expecting to play the outfield.

The main thing is that by coming over now instead of in 2 years he comes over in the international pool system instead of the typical unrestricted sense. $20 million to the Ham Fighters, but he'll just get the signing bonus that a team has in their pool. People think this might mean he's open to go anywhere, because he's basically giving up a ton of money by coming 2 years early. He'll be subjected to 6 years of team control.

unless. Obviously there's nothing stopping teams from extending a guy under control to a big contract. MLB is claiming they'll be harsh if a team tries to skirt these rules by unofficially offering Otani a 6 year megadeal that doesn't start or exist until after his first year. Francisco Lindor was offered, and turned down, 100 million after his first year. Andrelton Simmons got $58million, currently the highest at that point.



But maybe ignore all that because the posting system is in flux, expired, will he be grandfathered in, willthe Ham Fighters agree to the new things what's going on it's all confusing!

Otani has hired CAA, an MLB agency. So something will be worked out. it may be wildly different. It may reset how Japanese players sign here. who knows!


He's good though! The Mets should get him.

[Ceetar]

Oh, and he's only 23.

[seawolf17]

DO IT, SANDY.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah I'd totally get this guy. If he can really hit its like getting twice the guy for the $$, and you'd think Sandy would get turned on by that concept. I don't think he AND another big $$ guy would come though, but who knows? As mentioned above maybe the Darvish signing greases the pole.

[smg58]

He's a tough player to read. As a hitter he strikes out too often. His pitching numbers are certainly impressive, but he's never thrown more than 160 innings in a season (and only threw 25 innings this year). There's a lot of raw talent there, but it's RAW talent by MLB standards. Treat him like the top pitching prospect, but not like a guaranteed perennial All Star.

[Centerfield]

I don't understand. So because he's young, would he be cheap?

[nymr83]

he loses contract dollars by coming over now - but if he really is (or can be marketed as) the "babe ruth of japan" he'll make a shit ton of endorsements.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: I don't understand. So because he's young, would he be cheap?

Yes, because he doesn't have enough JPL time to be a FA so MLB int'l rules cap his earnings.
In one way that's good (for MLB teams, that is, not for him) in that all teams will pay roughly the same amount. There is some wiggle room based on international bonus pool money which can be
traded between clubs like with frozen orange juice concentrate futures. The Rangers apparently can sign him to the most money, slightly ahead of the Yanx, who are slightly again ahead of the pack.
Don't ask me to explain it, but that's how it is.

I suspect DH clubs will have an advantage as well.

[seawolf17]

Centerfield wrote: I don't understand. So because he's young, would he be cheap?

He's got two years at the minimum salary before the collective bargaining agreement would let him earn any big bucks, yes. I read a thing about it recently. After 2019, he'd be eligible for whatever.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mets may pursue Japanese two-way star Shohei Otani

Intrigued by his star power, and emboldened by new rules that will leave him within their financial reach, the Mets are weighing a pursuit of two-way Japanese phenom Shohei Otani, multiple sources told Newsday.

[Guest Mets Willets Point]

Do we let him pinch hit on his non-pitching days?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Or play outfield, I guess.

[Frayed Knot]

Using him elsewhere, even if only occasionally, would help solve the short bench problem.
He mostly DH'd in Japan, and even then only in games that were several days prior to his scheduled starts which typically are once per week over there.
That's part of why the DH league would be a better showcase for his talents.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Using him elsewhere, even if only occasionally, would help solve the short bench problem. He mostly DH'd in Japan, and even then only in games that were several days prior to his scheduled starts which typically are once per week over there. That's part of why the DH league would be a better showcase for his talents.

Arguably not as he'll be pitching more often here and in the NL he'll actually get to bat during those starts. And the NL gets way more pinch hit appearances where you could conceivably use him versus trying to juggling trying to find him part-time DH duties.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

[tweet:2na6yk1j]

[/tweet:2na6yk1j]

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Using him elsewhere, even if only occasionally, would help solve the short bench problem. He mostly DH'd in Japan, and even then only in games that were several days prior to his scheduled starts which typically are once per week over there. That's part of why the DH league would be a better showcase for his talents.

Yeah. I can't see him coming to the NL given this.

I don't hold out much hope that he'll be a Met. I just hope like hell he's doesn't go to the MFY's. But I'd say it's 50/50 he ends up there.

[Vic Sage]

the money comes out of the team's Int'l signing pool money, and Mets have almost no more available. I read that the most they can offer is $150k. Other teams have millions available.
so the point is moot.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: the money comes out of the team's Int'l signing pool money, and Mets have almost no more available. I read that the most they can offer is $150k. Other teams have millions available. so the point is moot.

there's a lot of dirty dealing about to happen. He's giving up tens of millions to come now instead of waiting two years. The specific first year totals may not even matter.

[Edgy MD]

Apart from objecting to it in the extreme, I can't for the life of me figure out the international bonus pool thingie. Shouldn't that only apply to bonuses, rather than salary?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm not clear on that either. If what you say is true (and it might be) then the Mets would have a shot at Otani.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Apart from objecting to it in the extreme, I can't for the life of me figure out the international bonus pool thingie. Shouldn't that only apply to bonuses, rather than salary?

yes. He'll make major league minimum next year with whoever he signs with.

[Benjamin Grimm]

He's not required to make the minimum, is he?

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: He's not required to make the minimum, is he?

yes. he'll be the same as any other guy from the normal regular draft. 6 years of control or whatever it is.

if he waits 2 years he'd be until the other 'Japanese import' system that would allow them to pay him anything.

Where this gets interesting is that everyone assumes teams are going to have an unwritten agreement to tear up the amateur contract for an extension that pays big bucks, probably after the first year, but how to do this to pretend it didn't happen now, during these negotiations, when it's not allowed to happen?

I posted some numbers earlier in this thread about the biggest first-year buy-outs.

[Vic Sage]

he'll make the minimum but he can get a signing bonus from any team's international bonus pool allotment. That's where the teams can differentiate themselves in terms of compensation. The Yankmees can offer him $3.5M; the Mets $150k. So its not an even playing field in that regard.

[Edgy MD]

So the only angle the Mets have is potentially trading a player (or $$) to another team in exchange for some of their stupid unused pool space.

[Benjamin Grimm]

So the Mets can, in theory, trade a particular player for, say, $2 million in bonus pool money?

[Edgy MD]

On second thought, there's probably a cap on the amount of bonus pool money/space a team can trade because that's the sort of nonsense there tends to be.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: On second thought, there's probably a cap on the amount of bonus pool money/space a team can trade because that's the sort of nonsense there tends to be.

They can acquire up to 75 percent of their original pool allocation in 2017-18 and 2018-19, then after that they can trade for up to 60 percent of their original pool Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/new-mlb-international-signing-rules/#j00glA560p8TOc8b.99

Also they lose 500k if they sign a QO guy (though I guess they'd lose it for next year?)

Anyway, people seem to think it won't matter since Otani's giving up so much to play here that it's about the best situation to play here. Mets/NY might offer certain opportunities that say, Kansas City, does not. There's quite a bit we don't know about his motivations.

[Ceetar]

The Mets did not save/collect pool money to bid on Otani. You could argue that this is wise. Get players you want, you think are good, that you can get. Take the sure gets over the random lottery in Otani because having say 5 million or 2 million is not going to make a difference and what happens if you don't get him and then you didn't sign anyone good? Though the flip side is maybe he doesn't want to give up the signing bonus altogether, and the Mets basically are tapped out. (You can add that up below, 4.75 is where they started)

New York Mets
Ronny Mauricio, ss, Dominican Republic (No. 3 prospect), $2.1 million.
Adrian Hernandez, of, Dominican Republic (No. 16 prospect), $1.5 million.
Stanly Consuegra, of, Dominican Republic (No. 40 prospect), $500,000.
David Marcano, rhp, Venezuela (No. 49 prospect)
Federico Polanco, ss, Dominican Republic, $325,000.
Eduardo Salazar, of, Venezuela
Patricio Diaz, of, Dominican Republic, $100,000.
Robert Colina, rhp, Venezuela
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-team-team-international-signing-trackers/#C4V68QYRPcgjfl2p.99

[Frayed Knot]

The final details on this whole Otoni signing business are still being debated by MLB, NPB, and the MLBPAA, so nothing is quite official yet.
But basically the rules are being decided based on a mash-up of the new transfer rules between Japan & MLB, plus the Int'l signing limits within MLB, and then all that gets coupled with him being
under the age of 25 when he jumps the Pacific making him subject to regular MLB rookie guidelines, ie. not even arbitration eligible for several more years. IOW, unlike the Matsui(^2) signings of
years ago or Darvish/Tanaka more recently, Otoni won't qualify as a FA signing but rather, as Ceetar notes, like an incoming draft pick or amateur undrafted player.