Two choices the Mets need to make this winter

[Centerfield]

Funny. I just looked up Coleman's stats too. .665 OPS as a Cardinal before signing with the Mets.

Yeah, not elite.

[Centerfield]

But on that note...Hey! Let's get Dee Gordon!

[Edgy MD]

I dunno (about the '85 Cardinals). Terry Pendleton was purty bad in 1985, and really never was particularly good through most of his early career until he suddenly became an MVP upon joining the Braves.

Tom Ñieto was pretty weak for them too, but at least he caught. Although he and Darrell Porter shared the catching. Darrell had the stick and Ñieto the glove.

They were a team with half a lineup most nights.

[Guest 41Forever]

http://www.nytimes.com/1990/12/06/sports/baseball-coleman-signed-by-mets-for-nearly-12-million.html

The Coleman signing was a big deal. He was a good player -- until he got to New York. ROY, two years in top 15 of MVP voting, two-time All-Star, leading the league in steals each year he was in the majors. First Mets free agent signing in a decade.

But he was infamous for getting hurt by "log-rolling" on the tarp rolls. Busch had an automatic system, and Coleman was standing on top as it was rolling out -- and fell off and got hurt. It ran over his leg. This was during the playoffs, and he missed the 1985 World Series. Stupid.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/the-day-the-tarp-ate-vince-coleman/article_5e47b555-a52b-5106-9d17-58b5303ca0f5.html

He should have stayed in St. Louis. Instead he was asked replace Darryl Strawberry. Horrible signing in hindsight.

[Frayed Knot]

The problem with the Coleman signing is that it was done largely as a pr move in reaction to losing Strawberry - 'Hey, let's replace a name with a name' to take away any bad pub.
Well, as usual, when you do something for pr reasons you usually wind up with worse pr than you would have had you done nothing.



FWIW, Jim Duquette for MLB.com looks at the 'Top-25' FAs this winter and has the Mets "interested in" 12* of them.
Now whether that's based on any kind of inside information or just speculation that the Mets may be looking at these positions and therefore we'll call them interested in anyone who fill it.
I'm guessing it's the latter.


* Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Jay Bruce, Lorenzo Cain, Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana, Addison Reed, Brandon Morrow, Anthony Swarzak, Eduardo Nunez, Todd Frazier,

[Mex17]

Alonso and Morrison both seem to have turned on the power switch just as they hit their walk years. That could be a red flag since they never had those types of slugging numbers previously.

[Mex17]

How about this?

-Big time closer money on Reed or Wade Davis.
-Moderate 3rd/4th starter money on either Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas, Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin, or, yeah I'm saying it, C.C. Sabathia (he might be miffed at the Yankees for them firing Girardi).
-High end bench money on Howie Kendrick.

See what you have in Smith/Flores/Rivera/Lagares/Nimmo and save some bullets for the big bats that are hitting the market a year from now.

The downside to this plan is, when you finally get the big bats, the big bullpen goes away when Familia and Ramos walk. But you will not have to worry about locking down a closer when you are also shopping for the bats. Looking for new setup men for Reed or Davis would be more manageable.

[MFS62]

Centerfield wrote: Yeah, I’d be inclined to say none of those qualify. Pedro was a big name but clearly in decline. Jason Bay is the quintessential Mets free agent. Not elite, and signed past his prime.

The question was not whether or not the player signed was elite, it was whether the Mets signed one of the top players available that year. Remember?

But if you are talking about signing a top tier free agent from another team, no, they never do this. Beltran. Bonilla. That's really it.

And Bay certainly was one of the top two outfielders available that year, and his prior year wasn't chopped liver. He was coming off a year when he won a Silver Slugger award, finished 7th in the MVP voting and was on the All Star team. That's top tier, isn't it?
The fact that he didn't work out as we would have liked is moot.
Back to this year.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Mex17 wrote: How about this? -Big time closer money on Reed or Wade Davis. -Moderate 3rd/4th starter money on either Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas, Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin, or, yeah I'm saying it, C.C. Sabathia (he might be miffed at the Yankees for them firing Girardi). -High end bench money on Howie Kendrick.

No, yes, no?

They need at least one outfielder at some level.

And my yes is tempered by the idea that C.C. Sabathia is going to sign with the Mets out os solidarity with Joe Girardi. He's going to sign with the Mets if they offer $100 more than another team.

Also, I'm kind of looking for a better class of starter, which might be more workable in that I'm looking for a lesser class of reliever.

[Ceetar]

just about every 'big time' free agent is signed past his prime. That's pretty much part of the deal.

And to say the Mets don't do it is a huge square peg into your round narrative hole. It's being willfully ignorant of acquiring guys, even if not by being the highest bidder in an offseason negotiation, like Piazza, Alomar, Santana..

And it also ascribes too much of the credit for making the postseason by the 'big spenders' on these guys. The Angels acquired one of the best hitters in baseball and then developed the next one to play on the same team and suck.

[Centerfield]

Ok. I should clarify.

When I mentioned the "five elite" in my original post, it was more tongue in cheek. I don't really consider Lorenzo Cain an elite free agent.

The question that was raised (or at least, the one that I answered) was, do the Mets sign truly elite level free agents? I consider elite free agents to be superstars, signed during their prime. And I get that every free agent has some years behind them. But there is a difference between signing a superstar to his first contract in his mid to late 20's, and Pedro Martinez, who is in his mid thirties, looking for his second big money deal.

And I don't think we should count "the best guy available that year". In some cases, that's Shin Soo Choo, and not a superstar.

The Mets do re-sign their own. Piazza. David Wright. I think they re-signed Gooden.

But they really do not bring in another team's superstar on a big money deal. Beltran. Bobby Bonilla. I think that's it.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: But they really do not bring in another team's superstar on a big money deal. Beltran. Bobby Bonilla. I think that's it.

again, this obfuscates the Santana trade and sign. The Mets, having been competitive to the last day, missing because of pitching, spend big money and big prospects on 200+ IP of HOF quality pitching. Literally found a way to acquire the #1 or #2 pitcher in all of baseball.

[Lefty Specialist]

Billy Wagner was a pretty big get at the time.

And in 2002 they went out and got Moe Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz and Roberto Alomar. It all crashed and burned horribly (Oh the humanity!), but they did make the effort.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'm talking elite in their prime free agents. It doesn't matter who they last played for before the Mets signed them so long as they were in their prime elite free agents. This would include Cespedes, who entered the free agent market after the 2015 season having last played for the Mets, but not Santana or Piazza, who weren't free agents when they signed with the Mets. Pedro, like CF said, was past his prime even though his first Mets season was sublime. The Mets signed Pedro for his 33-37 age seasons. Coleman was an extremely overrated outfielder who did in fact have a few good seasons before signing with the Mets. That didn't make him an elite top tier in his prime free agent when he signed with the Mets. Edgy makes some fair points that Coleman wasn't the worst everyday position player on the '85 Cards, but rather the 6th best, or 2nd worst from the bottom. Picky, picky. That makes Coleman the 6th out of 8 regulars. And, if as Edgy says, the '85 Cards were playing with half a lineup, then what does that say about the 6th best or 2nd worst from the bottom position player? Mo Vaughn was in his mid-30s, 100 pounds overweight, and hadn't played a MLB game in a year and a half when the Mets signed the over the hill free agent first baseman. That's hardly elite top tier free agent territory. It's funny that the Mets needed a first baseman that off-season, because coincidentally, there actually was a top tier elite free agent who played first base that same off-season. That would be Jason Giambi, the toppingest free agent of that market, coming off, if I remember correctly, an MVP season. He signed with the Yankees, who when it comes to signing top tier free agents, eat the Mets lunch like the Globetrotters eat the Washington Generals lunch. That's the Mets and Yankees in a nutshell. They get the most sought after most desirable free agent available and the Mets get Fatty Arbuckle in baseball polyester. This reminds me of one of the presentations I attended at the Hofstra 2012 Mets 50th. The topic was the economics of the Mets and Yankees (again, if I'm remembering correctly) and the presenter noted that one of the tremendous advantages the Yankees have over the Mets is in the quality of the Yankees free agent signings. One way he measured this was to compare the all-star appearances of the two teams free agent signees. As you would imagine, it wasn't even close.

Beltran, Bonilla and Cespedes. In 40 years of free agent history. From a team that calls New York City its' home. Another fucking embarrassment.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm not embarrassed about that. I'm occassionally embarrassed about the guys we get but I could give a rat's ass about how we get them

[Edgy MD]

As noted, almost all free agents can be described as past their prime. Perhaps once every three years does the one guy at the top of the market (this seems to be the limit) hit free agency with his best seasons as likely to be ahead of him as behind him.

I mean, folks can define this however they like, but unless we have a workable and agreed-upon definition of words like "elite" and "prime," none of it gets anywhere.

Who qualifies this off-season? J.D. Martinez? Shohei Otani?

[Centerfield]

Yeah, it's a difficult argument because of the fluid nature of those terms. I know. It's like the Supreme Court on porn when they say "I know it when I see it".

I'm sure there's some way to quantify it, but I feel like we all kinda know who the superstars are. And it should definitely be their first big money contract. Not mid 30's free agency where they are looking for their second payday.

And I get that the Mets have made trades to acquire players, and have developed stars, etc. But basically, why does a big market team deprive themselves of the easiest way to get talent?

Winning a World Series is hard. You need elite players to be the best. Duh. There are three ways to get elite players:

1. Develop them
2. Trade for them
3. Sign them via free agency

If you are a small market team, you can only do 1 and 2. But why does a team that plays in NY limit themselves to 1 and 2? That's the embarrassment. A big market team that does not take advantage of its built-in advantage.

[Centerfield]

And look, any one fan doesn't need to care how a team gets their players. That's anyone's prerogative. But it is absolutely proper for a fan, should they choose, to ask the Mets to answer for this. Because they are in no position to justify this behavior.

For example, there are three ways to get on base. Hit, walk, reach on error. If you go to Ichiro in his prime and say, "Hey Ichiro, why don't you walk more?" Ichiro can say "Hey bitch, I hit .350 and this is my MVP trophy. Walk this dickhead." And you have nothing to say.

But if you say hey Rey Ordonez, you struggle to reach a 600 OPS, why don't you try walking, Rey has nothing to say.

If you go to the Mets and say, hey it's nice you've developed a nice core, and it's great that you are making trades and all, but why don't you try signing a top flight free agent like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Dbacks, etc. They can't tell you they don't need to. A team that historically loses has no business not trying everything at its disposal.

Seriously. In the last ten years, three winning seasons, and the highest win total is 90. DO SOMETHING!!!

[Frayed Knot]

Lefty Specialist wrote: And in 2002 they went out and got Moe Vaughn, ... It all crashed and burned horribly

Should have gone for Curly Vaughn instead. Or even Shemp.

[Guest 41Forever]

Would be an interesting analysis to look at the top free agent contract signed each off-season and look at how they panned out. The MFYs, for all their buying power, they signed a lot of bad contracts. They just have the ability to eat them better than most teams. I'm not sure the Mets are necessarily missing out by not hooking the biggest fish each year.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Two first place finishes since 1988. In a mostly five team division. In New York City. Not missing out? Really?

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Two first place finishes since 1988. In a mostly five team division. In New York City. Not missing out? Really?

All this during an era in baseball history where the correlation between payroll and wins was never stronger. And eating the back end of big bad contracts: that's what big market teams do. That's the luxury of being a big market team. It's a calculated outcome, not luck gone bad.

[Centerfield]

41Forever wrote: Would be an interesting analysis to look at the top free agent contract signed each off-season and look at how they panned out. The MFYs, for all their buying power, they signed a lot of bad contracts. They just have the ability to eat them better than most teams. I'm not sure the Mets are necessarily missing out by not hooking the biggest fish each year.

Yeah, the Yankees had a ton of bad contracts this year. But they also got production from expensive guys like Tanaka, Chapman, and Sabathia. They went to the ALCS.

Between Gonzalez, and Kazmir and Ryu, the Dodgers probably had the most in shit contracts this year. They went to Game 7 of the WS.

The Red Sox are paying for Pablo Sandoval, the Cubs have Jason Heyward, the Nats paid $22 million Jayson Werth. I don't think signing a bad contract is all that fatal.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Two first place finishes since 1988. In a mostly five team division. In New York City. Not missing out? Really?

I don't even know how to apply what the Mets "were" in 1988 to today.

but since 2005 they've had 6 winning seasons and 3 playoff berths (and 2 near misses)

go back to 1997 and they've had 11 winning seasons and 5 playoff berths. They're more likely to be winners than losers.

you cherry picked 1988. go back to 84 and it's 18 winning seasons and 7 berths and still winning more than losing.

Their payroll was up there pretty much entirely before the recession/Madoff/Stadium trio.

You're also setting the bar for 'big free agent' rather high. What, they haven't signed any 10 year deals so they're cheap? There's a rare confluence of events in which a top 10 guy becomes available, in a Mets need, and is even remotely worth it. Should they throw 40/400 at Harper next year?

[Centerfield]

Since the 80's glory days, the Mets have only won in three different eras. The late 90's Piazza years, the Omar years, and our current team.

During the Piazza years, the Mets maintained a top 10 payroll. Two post-season appearances, one World Series. 97 wins in '99, 94 in '00.

In 2006, the Mets had a top 5 payroll. Again, 97 wins.

Then Madoff. Once they slashed payroll, they went into a stretch where they were not competitive.

In 2015 and 2016, the Mets came back to winning, and unlike before, did not have a top 10 payroll to back it up. But how good were they? In 2015, they were fortunate to win a very weak NL East. Their 90 wins would not have been enough to win in any other year since 2007. In 2016, they won the Wild Card with 87 wins.

[Centerfield]

Ceetar wrote: You're also setting the bar for 'big free agent' rather high. What, they haven't signed any 10 year deals so they're cheap? There's a rare confluence of events in which a top 10 guy becomes available, in a Mets need, and is even remotely worth it. Should they throw 40/400 at Harper next year?

Yes, it is a high, and somewhat arbitrary bar, but it's one that the other big market teams hit. I'm saying it's a move that the Mets don't have, at least not since Beltran, and they suffer as a result.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

But maybe not suffering as much as they might be had they taken the very same argument from you 2 years ago and gone and signed Jason Heyward. I mean, its way more nuanced than this.

[Ceetar]

but you're including Cespedes on this list of free agents but the Mets aren't participating. you're confusing me. And they're paying Wright too, who definitely qualifies as one of those guys in stature at least.

There is also only 1-2 guys this season that even come close to that, and it's Darvish and Otani. Arrieta maybe?

But you can always make cases against signing these big free agents at this point, and as much as the Mets should get Darvish I could certainly understand an argument against it.

The Mets are in a weird spot this offseason, where they maybe have guys at positions but maybe don't, and it's hard to know which position to sign someone to and move around and which guys to trust to the job. Rosario, Smith, Conforto? d'Arnaud/Plawecki? even Wright has the potential to play in 2018 and while you don't let him stop you from trading for Arenado, you do have to consider where you play him if he can play at any point.

I get why Gordon appears interesting because second is probably the most 'open' position. But Gordon sucks.

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: But maybe not suffering as much as they might be had they taken the very same argument from you 2 years ago and gone and signed Jason Heyward. I mean, its way more nuanced than this.

The team that signed Jason Heyward has won a World Championship and played in three straight NLCS. We should all suffer so much.

Because in addition to Heyward, they signed Jon Lester, and Dexter Fowler, and John Lackey, and Ben Zobrist. They ponied up and brought in a dominant closer. All of these guys pitched in along with a young core to create a champion and consistent contender. Top ten payroll. Big market team.

[Edgy MD]

Well, since 1988, if that's really where we're measuring from, the Mets have typically had a top-ten payroll.

I know that's cold comfort.