Two choices the Mets need to make this winter

[Mex17]

1) Regarding third base, do you go after Frazier or Moustakis now, or do you pick up Cabrera's option, let him play third in 2018, and wait for Machado and Donaldson to hit the market a year from now?

2) Do you go after a big corner outfield bat (as in Bruce or JD Martinez), thereby forcing Conforto to centerfield again (and subsequently Lagares to the bench or to another team), or do you place more value in the prospect of Lagares preventing runs from being scored against you as opposed to another big money slugger creating runs on your behalf?

What say you?

[Edgy MD]

We've got a lot o' Moustakas threads.

[Centerfield]

You know, I was thinking that the Mets need to primarily add pitching this winter, and add one solid bat somewhere. But now watching these post-season games, I feel like the Mets are light years away offensively. I mean, these guys have such talent up and down their lineup.

Don't like Moustakas or Frazier. We have enough low BA guys. Of the hitters available this winter, I think only JD Martinez is a difference maker. Lorenzo Cain can fill a need. Neil Walker to a lesser extent.

My plan (borrowing from the LA Dodgers playbook):

Sign Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Sign Yu Darvish. Trade some of the leftover starters and/or AJ Ramos for a super-lefty reliever. Haven't exactly identified one yet but it's only Nov. 1. Exercise the option on Jerry Blevins.

Exercise the option on Asdrubal Cabrera and slot him at 2B. Sign JD Martinez. Sign Lorenzo Cain. Try Cespedes and Conforto at 3B (hey they are athletes!) and see which one is better. Leave the better one there and move the other one back to LF. This is hard, I realize, with Conforto hurt, but winning doesn't come without a cost, and winners never quit!

Sign Lucas Duda to be your lefty bat off the bench and to DH during interleague away games.

If you want to go economical, you can skip the Lorenzo Cain signing, go with Flores/Rivera at 3B, and move either Ces or Conforto to CF.

Then start selling post-season tickets!

[Ceetar]

I want Darvish AND Ohtani!

[Centerfield]

I see Ohtani going to the AL. If he really goes both ways (NTTAWWT), then I think he has to DH between starts. You don't want him burning out that arm.

Yu is kind of a mystery. I wouldn't put him in that elite class of ace, though he will likely be paid like one this winter. 3.86 ERA is nothing special, 26th in all of baseball. He does have a nice WHIP (1.18), which was 13th overall, and better than Jacob deGrom's.

And this was the year he was finally healthy. I don't know. I see a bunch of red flags. But then again, we definitely need a starter.

[Vic Sage]

they're not moving either Cespedes or Conforto to 3b, injury or no, and neither should they. Enough with playing guys totally out of position.

The focus should be on
1) a solid mid-rotation starter we can pencil in for 200 ip;
2) another closer to pair with familia;
3) solid bats at least at 2 of following 5 positions: 2b or 3b (with Cabrera at the other spot), Cf or Rf (with Conforto at the other spot) and C, with at least one of the bats being of the contact/ob%/ top-of-the-order variety.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Vic Sage wrote: The focus should be on 1) a solid mid-rotation starter we can pencil in for 200 ip; 2) another closer to pair with familia; 3) solid bats at least at 2 of following 5 positions: 2b or 3b (with Cabrera at the other spot), Cf or Rf (with Conforto at the other spot) and C, with at least one of the bats being of the contact/ob%/ top-of-the-order variety.

This is pretty much what I've been thinking too. I suspect that they'll let d'Arnaud and Plawecki compete for time behind the plate, but an upgrade, if they can do it, should be on the table. But I would like to see them import an infielder and an outfielder and hopefully they won't both be sluggers who strike out 150 times per season.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: But I would like to see them import an infielder and an outfielder and hopefully they won't both be sluggers who strike out 150 times per season.

I mean, 26 guys struck out 150 times.

And that's just volume. Almost 100 guys struck out at what would be a 150k rate.

[Centerfield]

Vic Sage wrote: they're not moving either Cespedes or Conforto to 3b, injury or no, and neither should they. Enough with playing guys totally out of position.

Wait, so my scenario had the Mets spending about $750 million, and that's the part that was unrealistic? Lol.

I would say there is a better chance Conforto learns to play an adequate 3B by catching the ball with his teeth and then punting it over to 1B than the Mets signing five top tier free agents in one winter.

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The focus should be on 1) a solid mid-rotation starter we can pencil in for 200 ip; 2) another closer to pair with familia; 3) solid bats at least at 2 of following 5 positions: 2b or 3b (with Cabrera at the other spot), Cf or Rf (with Conforto at the other spot) and C, with at least one of the bats being of the contact/ob%/ top-of-the-order variety. This is pretty much what I've been thinking too. I suspect that they'll let d'Arnaud and Plawecki compete for time behind the plate, but an upgrade, if they can do it, should be on the table. But I would like to see them import an infielder and an outfielder and hopefully they won't both be sluggers who strike out 150 times per season.

I'm on board with this too. And I think the Mets will look to do just that. Add a starter, add a back end reliever, and add 2 bats. What remains to be seen is the level of talent they bring in.

With the amount of money that came off the books, there is no reason the Mets can't shop at the top of the market, especially in the bullpen. Wade Davis will cost about 4 years, $75-80 million. I think they can stomach that.

Not sold on Dickey as the additional starter. Maybe a guy like Jason Vargas.

The Mets need one top of the order OBP guy. One guy who slugs a bit.

[Edgy MD]

It's tough to sign a reliever who has been closing games when he and his agent know you already have a guy with that assignment. Closing is how they enhance their résumés. If you want to get an active closer to be your other closer, you generally have to trade for him, a la AJ Ramos. That way he has no say in his role, other than to pitch effectively.

That could happen, but I think it's more likely that the Mets will be trying to shore up the setter-uppers, rather than the back end.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Centerfield wrote: Wade Davis will cost about 4 years, $75-80 million.

Really??? I'm not disputing you, just expressing surprise. I guess I don't pay that much attention to salaries. Are relief pitchers really getting in the neighborhood of $20 million per year?

[Centerfield]

I think so. Kenley Jansen got 5 years, 80 Million last year. Mark Melancon got 4 years, 62 million.

Figure Wade Davis is right there with those guys, has a championship on his resume, there are fewer closers on the maket this year, and "bullpenning" is a real thing now.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: It's tough to sign a reliever who has been closing games when he and his agent know you already have a guy with that assignment. Closing is how they enhance their résumés. If you want to get an active closer to be your other closer, you generally have to trade for him, a la AJ Ramos. That could happen, but I think it's more likely that the Mets will be trying to shore up the setter-uppers, rather than the back end.

I think the idea would be to sign Davis to be our closer and move Familia to the 8th.

Plus you figure Wade Davis is 32 years old and probably won't be all that marketable at the end of his contract.

[Ceetar]

Not really on board on spending big on relievers.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I tend to think that money works better spread around.

[smg58]

They need someone to fill either second or third, but they also need to add quality to the rotation and to the pen. My money would go toward pitching first. There's no point in pretending that it is currently the strength of the team. One starter, and two relievers.

I do think the pickings at third base in the free agent market are better next offseason than this one, so I would lean in the direction of finding a second baseman now and letting Cabrera play third. Call me back if the price on Moustakas is lower than I think it will be. Frazier? No better offensively than what we already have. His defense is a plus, but Cabrera might improve with more time there.

The question then becomes, what's on second?

The outfield can be improved on, but I'm OK going with what we have (outside of another righthanded bat) if the rest of the needs are filled well.

[Frayed Knot]

Wade Davis at 5 years x $19-20 per is not quite the same as Jansen @ 5 x $16, or Melancon @ 4 x $15.5 (plus Melancon is not the best example to bring up right now on responsible closer signings)
Only Chapman @ 5 x $21.2 (plus an opt-out) really compares price-wise to what's being proposed.

And while Davis, who came into his own after being moved to the bullpen in 2014, has a better track record than Familia since that time it's not that much better and, at age 32 vs Familia who
just turned 28, are you willing to bet $80 million that he's going to continue to be marginally better over the next five seasons?

I think Sandy probably feels he addressed shoring up the back end of the bullpen by trading for Ramos and will use the army of guys received from the deadline deals plus an assortment of returnees
and an import or two to buttress the middle inning guys. IOW, I don't see them spending a huge chunk of their allowance on a FA closer, especially since that method seems to bust as often as it hits.


oe: and as to this thread title: Only TWO choices?

[Ceetar]

oe: and as to this thread title: Only TWO choices?

If we phrase it as choices..

-Do we continue to punt defense, or do we double down on having Rosario being maybe the best defensive SS we've had there in a long time by planning to play Lagares more, and bringing in guys for the infield with a little more defense? This might mean moving away from Flores.

-Do we trust in some recovery from our pitchers with the new staff and fill it in with some mid-rotation type guys, or do we go all out and sign top-flight pitchers to 'assure' a quality staff?

[Centerfield]

I don't see them spending a huge chunk of their allowance on a FA closer, especially since that method seems to bust as often as it hits.

You may be right about them electing not to pay a big chunk of money, but the second part of that statement is not true at all.

According spotrac, here are the top paid closers this year:

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/salary/closer/

1. Aroldis Chapman $21M
2. Craig Kimbrel $13.25 M
3. Greg Holland $13M
4. Zach Britton $11.4M
5. Kenley Jansen $10.8M
6. Wade Davis $10M
7. Jeurys Familia $7.425M
8. Cody Allen $7.35M
9. Brad Ziegler $7M
10. Mark Melancon $7M

Not included on this list, since he is not a closer, is Andrew Miller at $9 million.

Of these 11 pitchers, 2 were busts. (Ziegler and Melancon). Ziegler and Melancon ranked 10th and 11th in salary. Another two (Britton and Familia) were hampered by injury. Britton was good when healthy. Familia struggled but regained some form toward the end of the season.

The other 7 were the best in the game.

Further, the seven highest paid relievers, the seven pitchers making $9 million and above, are arguably the best in baseball.

In fact, it seems like there aren't many roles as reliable as closers, when it comes to big money.

Edited November 1, 2017 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's quite a dropoff in salary between numbers 1 and 2.

I might be willing to concede that a closer could be worth $13 million, but $21 million seems like money that could be spent better elsewhere.

[Centerfield]

And for the record, AJ Ramos is terrible and makes a shit ton of money. That's why he was available.

Ok. Maybe not terrible, but he's not very good.

Top 15 in MLB in saves:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/seasontype/2/sort/saves

AJ Ramos comes in at #14.

Of the top 10, Alex Colome of Tampa has the highest WHIP (1.20). Ramos has a 1.41 WHIP. It is the highest of the top 15. In fact, only Kelvin Herrera was close (1.31) Everyone else was 1.20 or lower.

He was 13th in ERA. He had the 2nd most amount of walks. His 34 walks were second only to Corey Knebel of Milwaukee, who had 40 (but threw 18 more innings).

I think you may be right that Sandy has felt he has addressed the bullpen issues, but he absolutely has not.

[Frayed Knot]

Except that not all those guys were signed as FA closers --Chapman, Melancon, and Jansen are but all are also just in the first year of their deals.
Most of the others are with their first team and even Kimbrel was a pre-FA trade.
I'm also thinking more historically than just the guys closing now.

Signing a closer as a FA means he already has at least six ML seasons under his belt and the primes of many closers just aren't that long so the team signing him doesn't always get their money's
worth even if the team who had him prior to that enjoyed his best seasons.
I remember Met fans demanding that we pay Frankie Rodriguez about double what they actually signed him for and even then that amount proved to be too much. Just one example but there are others.
I just don't think buying closers on the open market is the way to go in most cases, and particularly not if you already have one (and could even argue they have 1-1/2)

[Mex17]

Vic Sage wrote: Cf or Rf (with Conforto at the other spot)

So are we dismissing out of hand the very possibility of Lagares' defense preventing runs scored against as an asset that might be comparable or perhaps preferable to going out and getting another "big bat" for the outfield?

Edited November 1, 2017 by Guest

[Mex17]

smg58 wrote: I do think the pickings at third base in the free agent market are better next offseason than this one, so I would lean in the direction of finding a second baseman now and letting Cabrera play third. The question then becomes, what's on second?

Dee Gordon now, Machado or Donaldson a year from now. Count me in as supporting that.

[Centerfield]

Highest contracts to FA closers:

https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/sports/mlb/2016/12/07/largest-contracts-for-relief-pitchers/95109688/\

1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Kenley Jansen
3. Mark Melancon
4. Jonathan Papelbon
5. David Robertson
6. Francisco Cordero
7. Craig Kimbrel
8. BJ Ryan
9. Mariano Rivera (2008-2010)
10. Billy Wagner
11. Mariano Rivera (2001-2004)
12. Andrew Miller
13. Francisco Rodriguez
14. Darren O'Day

Of those 14, I would say only Melancon and BJ Ryan (2 good years out of 5) were busts. Some of them, including Melancon, you have to see how they play out, but for the most part, the returns were pretty good.

[Mex17]

I do not forsee them bringing in a big money Wade Davis type. Someone in the vein of Joe Smith though? Yeah, I can see that.

Think Familia/Ramos/Blevins/Smith as the veteran guys who are your reliable bread 'n butter going into the season, then you round out the rest of the pen with your organizational youngsters (which may or may not include the likes of Lugo/Gsellman/Montero depending upon how the rotation shakes out).

[Centerfield]

Well yes, I don't see them doing it either. But it's winter, and I was referring to what I hoped the Mets would do.

If I had to guess, I'd say we get Luke Gregorson, and Lance Lynn, and one guy like Cameron Maybin to play CF. Maybe we bring back Neil Walker.

But who knows. The Mets have money to spend. It could be a very exciting winter.

[Mex17]

Gregorson: not a great 2017, but a decent track record.

So Smith is the name in my head and Gregorson is the name in yours. I'm sure that there are others, but I think that should be the expectation.

[Mex17]

If they do decide to go for an outfield power bat this winter, I think that they are going to target Bruce over Martinez, but only if no real market develops for Bruce and they can get him on a team friendly deal later on in the winter (as in January).

I do not think that they are going to make a big splash for Martinez as that would probably preclude them financially from a Machado/Donaldson run next year.

That said, imagine what the 2019 lineup could be. . .

Gordon-2b (I know, I am pushing hard for a trade for Dee Gordon)
Rosario-ss
Cespedes-lf
Conforto-cf
Machado-3b
Bruce-rf
Smith-1b
d'Arnaud-c

I just have reservations about Conforto in centerfield long term, especially since we have a former Gold Glove winner for centerfield on the roster already, and for significant money.