All-Star Festivities IGT

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Despite a high Fish-and-MFY concentration, we've got a potentially fun HR Derby tonight, with a loaded, young field. Everyone's talking about Stanton (of last year's 61 to win) and Judge, with some buzz about Bellinger. (Protip: keep an eye on Sano-- he WILL damage some garish infrastructure.)

Leading into it, a song about asses by [crossout]a seedy-strip-club-owner-on-casual-Friday[/crossout] Pitbull with loaded, young gyrating jumpsuits.

Bienvenido a Miami!

[Gwreck]

Rooting for Stanton.

As long as it isn't either of the MFYs, no problem .

No Berman means I am watching for the first time in years.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Sano went for a solid 11... but dinged the big Windows at the back of the concourse several times.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I hate to admit it, but the timer does make this LOTS more fun.

Also fun-- watching Stanton get progressively nervous in the split-screen as Sanchez lights up the left-field stands.

[ashie62]

Sanchez beats Stanton!

Take that Logan Morrison.

[Gwreck]

Damn it. Stanton was really impressive.

[ashie62]

Aaron Judge is an effing monster.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I hope Judge wins it. There, a Mets' fan said it.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Woot!

[Guest 41Forever]

A lack of Chris Berman was appreciated.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Is he a Democrat? haha
Congrats to Judge, I hope the tabloids left time to explode for
the early editions. Here comes the Judge!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The crazy thing about Judge was all of those 50-70-percent-effort, oppo-field swings that went out.

[Fman99]

Pass.

[Guest cooby]

Lol. Me too. But had I known it was Berman free I might have watched

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

We watched last night. New format is much better, but it's just batting practice. Agreed on Judge's oppo-shots. They looked like they came off only a fraction of the bat. Juicy ball.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: We watched last night. New format is much better, but it's just batting practice. Agreed on Judge's oppo-shots. They looked like they came off only a fraction of the bat. Juicy ball.

better pitcher too. Sano's guy was practically brushing him back at some point.

No Berman but the ESPN broadcast was typically horrible and poorly produced. Split screens everywhere, ignoring everyone except Judge, missing home runs, cut-away during the time outs so they could get another ad in, etc.

[Guest Mets Willets Point]

The world's most insufferable sports fans are going to get more insufferable. I feel like we're living through Jeter 2.0.

[G-Fafif]

Maybe it was the lack of regulation regalia, but goddamn it, I didn't hate Judge -- and I fucking hate every goodamn one of them going back to my first exposure to them via Tom Tresh and Ruben Amaro cards. I completely avoided him through the first half so assumed he was another pinstriped automaton, except on something, thus explaining the overblown statcast nonsense. Alas, he seems actually likable. Between that and this home run thing he seems to have down pat, that will make him and his team (pending their not totally collapsing in the stupid American League) very popular to impressionable children in the greater Metropolitan area. And this is irritating indeed, for unless the Mets get their spit together, we're gonna go through another endless cycle of MFY this and MFY that.

I really thought we had this thing licked for a few years.

[Ceetar]

it's only been half a season and he's a 25 year old rookie, it's not like he's a phenom. Plenty of time for the league to figure him out and him become an Adam Dunn type. Yankees are working on teh collapse thing.

[G-Fafif]

Ceetar wrote: it's only been half a season and he's a 25 year old rookie, it's not like he's a phenom. Plenty of time for the league to figure him out and him become an Adam Dunn type. Yankees are working on the collapse thing.

Comforting appraisal. Thanks for talking me down. Go Ghost of Kevin Maas.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Fman99 wrote: Pass.

Case dismissed! (fb Yankee friend)

[Frayed Knot]

I have nothing against Judge, but part of this hype is of the ESPN-variety. The HR Derby is what they consider to be the best thing in baseball anyway so, absent a comet to rally around
since Jeter's retirement -- I suspect most Bristol employees couldn't pick Mike Trout out of a photo lineup -- Judge becomes their ready-made star.
Earlier today I him referred to as "the star that baseball so desperately needs", as if the sport is in danger of folding if they don't get one real quick.

[Frayed Knot]

He used to kill the Mets back in the day (was 19-0 IIRC before they finally beat him) but, man, it would be great to see Juan Marichal pitch just one more time.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I mean, MFYness aside, Judge is kinda fun, with just a little soupcon of biblical-brand awesome; the appeal is the offensive analogue of Syndergaard's-- frighteningly-coordinated gigantic human dominating in frighteningly-coordinated gigantic-human fashion, with a goofy gimmick to boot. The galvanizing effect he has/will have on the fan base sucks and will suck for some time, but the guy isn't nearly as BigChiefNoFun Jeterly as Jeter was at this age, either. As much as I'd like it to be true, the Dunn comparison doesn't pass the smell test.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

That said baseball is a very humbling game, pitchers will figure out his holes, he will encounter injury and slumps, they might retool the ball, etc etc

I'd put 25 Cranebucks on his never hitting 30 before the ASG again in his career.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, you hear all about 'the adjustments' he's made since his trial last year which have resulted in his both his high BA and walk rates even as the vast improvement in his K-rate still leaves
him at 36% which is only low when compared to the 50% from last season. Now of course the pitchers will try to adjust to his adjustments and that dance will go on as long as he plays.
At this point you have to treat his 3x size sample from this season as more real than the 2016 numbers but I suspect his true water level is probably somewhere in between the .329 hitter he
is now and last season's .179

Those High-HR / High-Walk / High-K rates, coupled with the size factor, certainly makes Dunn a logical comparison. The biggest difference so far is BA and that Judge is neither immobile nor
defensively inept as Dunn couldn't move the way Judge does AND he had stone hands.

[Ceetar]

Aaron Judge's BABIP is .426.

Only Cobb and Joe Jackson in 1911 had higher qualifying marks, at .444 and .433

There are plenty of recent examples of guys having high (not that high) BABIP marks, but there's still a measure of luck in there. It won't stay that high, his stats won't double from what they are now (what they were at halfway anyway). The total league average BABIP is .299. And this doesn't include his home runs or walks, obviously, so it's an even smaller sample size. It'll go down.

And yes, he hits the ball hard, but there's still some measure of luck involved in the flyball to home run conversion rate. Judge is tied at 141st in doubles. Game of inches and all. If he's even fractionally later, or off, on the ball more of those home runs stay in the park, and some of them are caught.

[seawolf17]

I'm just saying that if I had Judge on my fantasy team, I would trade the shit out of him right now.

[Centerfield]

You know what's awesome? That we get to argue about this for TWO MORE DAYS until we get more baseball.

I love the all-star break! So glad they made it longer!

[metirish]

Watched one full round of this, it is tiring after too long