The Edge of Seventeen: Jacob deGrom

[Edgy MD]

Between Harvey being the guy and Syndergaard being the guy ... I was totally the guy. What happened there? Rookie of the Year, man. And it's not like I've even had much of a falloff. Will I someday replace Sid Fernandez and Ron Darling as the best pitchers in Mets history to never get the ball on opening day?

Hey, whatever, I've been underestimated before. I don't have a played-out superhero nickname, or a page-six publicist. I just have the tenacity to hammer the strike zone every five days, and miss a lot of bats while I'm doing it. Leave the drama to those other guys.

So, not to be dramatic, but how am I gonna do this year?

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[seawolf17]

17-9, 3.14, finishes third in the Cy Young balloting.

[MFS62]

The lack of consistent offense and a questionable middle inning relief corps will take away several decisions from the starters.
15-8 3.10. (34 starts)

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

I can see the ERA being around 3.00, but I think deGrom will have too many five- or six-inning starts for him to win 17 games. 14 is probably more likely.

[Ceetar]

Just a bit better than last year, but stays healthY.

202.1 IP, 8.98 K/9, 2.05 BB/9 3.1 ERA, 4.2 fWAR

Is the only Mets starter with at least 10 games started that doesn't hit a home run, but is also the only Mets starter with a run scored in a game he didn't start.

Misses the NLDS, Starts games 1 and 4 of the NLCS, and clinches the World Series, getting pulled after 7.2, 132 pitches, and a runner on second in a 3-1 game with Hanley Ramirez due up.

[Lefty Specialist]

14-9, 3.25. Good enough.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I wanna see one ST performance before I make this prediction

[TransMonk]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I can see the ERA being around 3.00, but I think deGrom will have too many five- or six-inning starts for him to win 17 games. 14 is probably more likely.

Agreed. deGrom seems to be one of those guys who just hits a wall at 100 pitches. He can battle through any jam he is in at that point, but is no longer as dominant or reliable after that threshold.

[Edgy MD]

That may be the way his manager treats him, but the splits say he finishes his work day as strong as he starts it. Maybe stronger. If anything, the data suggests that, if there's a pattern to where he runs into trouble, it's in the middle innings.

Pitch 1-25: .624 OPS (76 G)
Pitch 26-50: .501 OPS (76 G)
Pitch 51-75: .685 OPS (76 G)
Pitch 76-100: .688 OPS (75 G)
Pitch 101+: .538 OPS (35 G)

I'm tempted to measure that in terms of standard deviations, or compare it to Syndergaard, but I have this job thingie.

[Guest d'Kong76]

15 wins, second most reliable starter in 2017.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I wanna see one ST performance before I make this prediction

Alright, then. 20-6, 2.87 CY Young award

[batmagadanleadoff]

Here's deGrom's write-up from Baseball Prospectus' 2016 Annual, published just before the start of the 2016 season:

His curveball doesn't have much curve, his slider doesn't have much slide and his sinker hardly deserves the name, so at least we can explain why scouts weren't salivating over deGrom through the minors. His individual pitches don't seem to add up, and given his Tommy John surgery and overall inexperience on the mound, everything was going to have to go right. And that's deGrom's success in a nutshell, really, because in every start, on nearly every pitch, everything does go right. His elite ability to repeat his mechanics means he isn't making the mistakes that yield hittable pitches, and he won't walk anyone. That may not be the sexy answer, but it makes him a legitimate ace who is likely to stay healthy. Oh, there's also the velocity. That helps.