A Consensus on Lucas Duda

[A Boy Named Seo]

"its ok our kind are the founding fathers of a better tomorrow"

This made me LOL a few good times.

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2017/1/6/14174338/finding-a-consensus-opinion-on-lucas-duda

[Edgy MD]

That's pretty dogged journalism right there.

[Zvon]

I'm not even done reading it yet but:

"I asked dozens, maybe even hundreds of people their opinion of Lucas Duda as a baseball player....."

...maybe even? Can't he keep count of how many people he asked? He takes quite a leap there.

[Zvon]

Oh, so the piece is a big joke. I didn't find it funny. David Capobianco owns me five minutes of my time.

[dinosaur jesus]

I think it's funny.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Where is the absolute worst place you can go searching for an informed opinion? From anonymous internet commenters.

"what is your opinion of lucas duda as a baseball player" "also can you put on a shirt"

... is funny.

[Centerfield]

This question requires you to put on a shirt.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Funny!

[Zvon]

Yea, I might be a little extra sensitive when it comes to The Dude.
I really want him to have that season we all know he can have at full potential.
I want 40 HRs in '17(last yr I probably demanded 30ish, maybe even 25) 120 RBI.-.280.BA.!
A lot to ask but I know he can do it.

[fimg=500:yykfv045]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/NDI__qtnBMo931-GOHaqTm3dFcacUHpKPRb_aTbLjNe6O10sMNUWqVOIYGKs4Yv3mt_9I1nieDWilavObMO5shb_PJXVnRa4iJnDMjFMJDunk9Bx9kCgOE82ECN6WFb5Hp65p5zoyR9zxgzMmeCdvm9PIh5d-apxfz0DmuKSXtHMEZWlocwjtx8S9kU3rh_yUd9fyl52iqLN5dalotOzSP70UMImYiRHyzXAciHmc-C-SoxV58IX8JGP-PZzse-27L-6_7oTiQwiVtoUnO52_Iw40D6DrLvEv9ogYCvAnqJvkVZGyrguax1L0tfNrPgch_RuSERvXFzF8REQJjbt9TAO4yd1barkCseO_-9oXkdgaIZQqTLBVfl-WMGe2Xjsulbkkf7Ao6fD2Go6tanWrzq14gdl-Kakc_Sk4UE3JtdE4oqvA9DOysckQUoOpyJA_dQCNNaP8PFNh4BhkTVbpmWZRLzoDarF-WMUmIw-t5LRTfBw1LR9KaJhem9AlMUqLk_XCjXUP_6_Prt-YudOggZvGpSW19wrSikRYW_F1b1aV6Z2LKnRuR-d3_X8NaLW6zxbOalB9oQMYsfsZJVT7Y-kRLGQEvn7rsdduVVvaZnuPr8IkJWrwg=w2048-h1152-no[/fimg:yykfv045]

[ashie62]

I'm not one of the "all knows" but my hope is that he be healthy and perform somewhere in the middle of the pack of 1B's.

[Ceetar]

Ashie62 wrote: I'm not one of the "all knows" but my hope is that he be healthy and perform somewhere in the middle of the pack of 1B's.

well in 2014-2016 he's 13th of 36 qualifying 1B in fWAR. I think 'middle of the pack' is probably his floor.

[Centerfield]

I think with that leg kick, he is always going to be a streaky hitter. I just hope that one day he can learn to be a bit more productive during his valleys. Like if he doesn't hit HR's but can put the ball in play, take a few walks. Not be a complete black hole.

[dinosaur jesus]

Lucas Duda is probably my favorite current Met. I love the guy. I can't say I believe in him, because I don't think he quite believes in himself, which is the problem. But he has the gift, if that's what it is, of being much better than people realize. I'm drawn to players like that. (Wayne Garrett. Olerud.) And I think he's got at least one terrific season in him.

He's also hilarious. He's a big, goofy guy with a funny name who seems embarrassed about being a (relatively) famous athlete. Just the idea of Lucas Duda is funny somehow, which is the point of those Instagram photos that Granderson posts. And the writer of this piece is on to that too. He's not mocking him. It's really a kind of tribute, a way of saying that he gets Lucas Duda, and he hopes he's not the only one.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm with Dino all the way.

I have to say though that the Duda is Good evangelists are risking being sorta smug about it

[Vic Sage]

But he has the gift, if that's what it is, of being much better than people realize. I'm drawn to players like that. (Wayne Garrett. Olerud.)

i don't think its a gift. It's a skill called On-Base Percentage. Traditional metrics didn't value you it much, but modern metrics do, so those who understand the impact of OBP on productivity have greater respect for those players who may have seemed unexceptional otherwise. That being said, i find Duda so frustrating because of his intense streakiness. It's not like he has a good week and then a bad week. It's like he has a non-existent 2 months, followed by a torrid 6 weeks, and then disappears again. It's hard to count on a player like that.

[batmagadanleadoff]

dinosaur jesus wrote: Lucas Duda is probably my favorite current Met. I love the guy. I can't say I believe in him, because I don't think he quite believes in himself, which is the problem. But he has the gift, if that's what it is, of being much better than people realize. I'm drawn to players like that. (Wayne Garrett. Olerud.) And I think he's got at least one terrific season in him. He's also hilarious. He's a big, goofy guy with a funny name who seems embarrassed about being a (relatively) famous athlete. Just the idea of Lucas Duda is funny somehow, which is the point of those Instagram photos that Granderson posts. And the writer of this piece is on to that too. He's not mocking him. It's really a kind of tribute, a way of saying that he gets Lucas Duda, and he hopes he's not the only one.

I can really relate to this post. I think I root for Duda to improve his game more so than for any other Met. Plus, he's so lovable. Also, Garrett and Olerud are two of my all-time favorite Mets, ranking much higher on my imaginary and somewhat vague list than their skills merit. Although Olerud was one of the best Mets ever, now that I think of it. With Garrett, it was definitely the OBP thing, which I figured out and was totally onto since I was in Junior High School some 40 years ago thanks to obsessively playing solitaire Strat-O-Matic.

[HahnSolo]

I'm a big fan of Duda. And my like for him is bolstered by the seemingly irrational hatred for the Dude on Mets/SNY social media. Then again those people seem to hate everything.

[Centerfield]

I like Duda a lot too. And loved Olerud during his time here. I'm also a big fan of Jacob deGrom and his "aw shucks" demeanor. All of these make sense.

But I also love Cespedes who is as far from Duda as one can be. And Rickey Henderson is one of my all-time favorites.

I think I like the humble guys, and the comically outlandish.

[MFS62]

I like him and want him to do well.
I also think that someone like Keith Hernandez (a proven veteran) should tap him on the shoulder and lure him over to the batting cage this Spring to show him how to go with the pitch against the shift. IMO it would do wonders toward flattening out those peaks and valleys.

And the reason it should be a stealth kind of training is that if the reporters found out about it, they'd be all over him daily in Spring Training asking how he is progressing. And because of his personality, that would put pressure on him.

Later

[Edgy MD]

I think that's part of how Duda is misunderstood and under appreciated. He goes the other way plenty.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: I think that's part of how Duda is misunderstood and under appreciated. He goes the other way

Funny how perception becomes reality.
Didn't realize that.
Thanks.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Edgy MD wrote: He goes the other way plenty.

But not in the way that Mike Piazza does, right?

[dinosaur jesus]

Edgy MD wrote: I think that's part of how Duda is misunderstood and under appreciated. He goes the other way plenty.

Yes, but look at what kinds of balls he hits the other way. His fly balls are pretty well distributed, but his ground balls are almost all to the right side, where the shift is. I think the perception is right on this one.

[Centerfield]

The link seems to go to Lucas Duda, in 2015, against lefties only. I can't seem to get it to switch to other years, and against all pitchers.

Anyway, DJ is right. Lucas hits fly balls the other way, but all of his ground balls are hit to the right side. Which is why the shift is effective against him. If he learned to go the other way on the ground, consistently, there are a lot of holes on that side of the field to find base hits.

And if you do that enough, they have to stop shifting.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: The link seems to go to Lucas Duda, in 2015, against lefties only. I can't seem to get it to switch to other years, and against all pitchers. Anyway, DJ is right. Lucas hits fly balls the other way, but all of his ground balls are hit to the right side. Which is why the shift is effective against him. If he learned to go the other way on the ground, consistently, there are a lot of holes on that side of the field to find base hits. And if you do that enough, they have to stop shifting.

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=2502&position=1B/OF&type=battedball&pid2=2502&ss1=2012&se1=2015&ss2=2012&se2=2015&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

In short, yes, but no. Lucas Duda is not trying to hit ground balls. he doesn't want to hit ground balls. All ground balls are essentially mistakes where he got on top of the ball, and as such, he's usually out in front and pulls them. This makes sense. Balls with more sink, movement, etc, that are slower than a fastball. These are the pitches you'd presumably want him to flick/bunt the other way, and these are sliders. You're not going to have a ton of success bunting a slider the other way.

Lucas Duda DESTROYS fastballs. There is no sense wasting his power taking a pitch like that the other way. It's the curveballs and sliders that he loses value on, these are the ones he's missing for soft contact. And it's counter-intuitive to take a pitch that's slower than you're expecting and wait even longer and flick it the other way. You start waiting a tick longer for pitches and suddenly you're late on the fastballs and those are the ones we want him to destroy.

What Duda needs to do to go from Very good to Great is lay off more of the curveballs and sliders, even strikes, so he doesn't make outs on them so he can see more pitches and find more fastballs.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, if you use the menus and get him over a couple of years, against all pitchers, you see his distribution is pretty liberal across the field, even while his grounders tend to go to the right.

But even most guys known as a spray hittters are going to favor their pull side somewhat. That's just how it goes.

[Ceetar]

From 2014-2016 of all 235 qualified batters, Duda is 61st on value per 100 four-seam fastballs.
He's 8th in cutters. (There is undoubtedly a line in his scouting report that reads: "DO NOT THROW CUTTER")
42nd on 2-seam fastballs.
52nd on Splitters.
9th on Sinkers.
218th on Curveballs
(he's actually gotten better with sliders. middle of the pack)

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Yeah, if you use the menus and get him over a couple of years, against all pitchers, you see his distribution is pretty liberal across the field, even while his grounders tend to go to the right. But even most guys known as a spray hittters are going to favor their pull side somewhat. That's just how it goes.

Sure. Somewhat. But Duda's ground ball distribution is drastic.

Here is his spray chart against all pitchers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=2502&position=1B/OF&type=battedball&pid2=2502&ss1=2015&se1=2015&ss2=2015&se2=2015&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

His groundball distribution grossly favors the right.

Compare that to Daniel Murphy, an actual spray hitter:

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=4316&position=1B/2B&type=battedball

Murphy's chart favors the right side as well, but he has a substantial number of ground balls going to the left side of the infield.

Murphy is a spray hitter. Duda is not.

[Ceetar]

and Duda is the better hitter.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think the way a guy like Doodoo beats the shift is smashing the ball into the Pepsi Porch and should be careful as to how much he adjusts his approach just for the sake of a few singles