Return of the NHOP

[Fman99]

Yes. Four Mets wins. Four Nats losses. I don't ask for much and that doesn't seem like too much to ask for.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday was a good day! And the air smells more fresh and clean this morning than it has in the last couple of days.

The Mets won at home against the Braves, while the Nationals game against the Orioles was rained out in Washington. The division lead goes from 6 to 6.5 games. The magic number drops from 8 to 7, and the NHOP drops from .308 to .280.

For the Mets to clinch the division before the Nationals come to Citi Field on October 2, the NHOP is .368.

Here's another way of looking at what lies ahead. The Mets next nine games, prior to the three against Washington, are all against teams with losing records. If the Mets go 5-4 over those 9 games, which is not at all a tall order, the Nationals would have to win all 13 of their remaining games (after having won 7 of their last 8) to win the division outright. That would be a stretch of 20-1. If Washington loses exactly one of their remaining games under this scenario, the division would end in a tie (as long as that loss isn't in New York) and the Nationals would then have to win the one-game playoff.

To sum up: The Mets go 5-4, the Nationals have to go 13-0 or 13-1 to keep the Mets out of the playoffs. Of course, if the Mets win 7 of the next 9, it won't matter at all what Washington does.

If all goes well, the Mets can clinch as early as Friday.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303
September 17	83-63	75-71	8	9	32	0.281
September 18	84-63	76-71	8	8	30	0.267
September 19	84-64	77-71	7	8	28	0.286
September 20	84-65	78-71	6	8	26	0.308
September 21	85-65	78-71	6.5	7	25	0.280

Remaining schedule for Mets and Nationals:
(Revised to reflect the makeup game for the Nationals on September 24. This was originally scheduled to be a day off for Washington, but they will instead be making up the game against Baltimore that was rained out on September 21.)

	Mets	Nationals
September 22	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 23	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 24	At Cincinnati	Baltimore
September 25	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 26	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 27	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 28		Cincinnati
September 29	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
September 30	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 1	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 2	Washington	At Mets
October 3	Washington	At Mets
October 4	Washington	At Mets

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets lost tonight to the lowly Braves, and you never really want to lose to a team whose first name is "lowly." However, on balance it was still a good day, as the Nationals lost a home game to the Orioles.

The division lead remains at 6.5 games. The magic number drops from 7 to 6. The NHOP hits a new season low, dropping from .280 to .261. The NHOP for clinching before the Nationals come to Citi Field on October 2 is now .353.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303
September 17	83-63	75-71	8	9	32	0.281
September 18	84-63	76-71	8	8	30	0.267
September 19	84-64	77-71	7	8	28	0.286
September 20	84-65	78-71	6	8	26	0.308
September 21	85-65	78-71	6.5	7	25	0.280
September 22	85-66	78-72	6.5	6	23	0.261

[Centerfield]

I was thinking about this. Currently you have the games remaining at 23. But that is technically not correct. There are actually only 20 games left, since the Mets and Nats finish against each other. Up until then each night presents 2 opportunities for the Magic Number to drop, but after that there is only 1 chance.

But then each of those games is more important since it has double the impact of any one game. For instance, if our magic number was 2, and the Mets and Nats were not facing each other, we would need 2 happy outcomes. When they face each other, we only need one happy outcome, but the outcome is guaranteed to be doubly happy.

I'm not sure how that could be incorporated into the NHOP. I think the way you currently have it is the closest we can get.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I was pondering the same thing and decided that, rather than overly complicate it, to keep it as it is. Hopefully it will become moot, and the NHOP will expire before the Nationals play the Mets.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Cincy is about 5 hours or so from Grand Rapids. I'm tempted to make a sprint down there on Saturday -- a 4:10 pm start -- or for the Sunday day game if there is a chance they could clinch. I think that would require the Nats going bad for the rest of the week for the stars to align.

[Ceetar]

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: Cincy is about 5 hours or so from Grand Rapids. I'm tempted to make a sprint down there on Saturday -- a 4:10 pm start -- or for the Sunday day game if there is a chance they could clinch. I think that would require the Nats going bad for the rest of the week for the stars to align.

6 games and need 4 good outcomes to have a chance Saturday, Sunday only need 4/8.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets continue to stumble toward their first NL East title in nine years. Yesterday was another loss to the Atlanta Braves, but the saving grace was that the Nationals lost their second straight game to the Orioles. The division lead holds at 6.5 games. The magic number drops from 6 to 5, and the NHOP, more volatile than ever as the number of remaining games shrinks, drops from .261 to .238.

If all goes well (or, more accurately, if five out of six games go well) the Mets can clinch the division as early as Saturday. All we know for sure is that the Mets will still be in first place on the morning of the last day of September.

The Mets are still in much much better shape than they were in 2007, but their recent 3 and 6 stretch has certainly frayed our nerves a bit. At this point eight years ago, the Mets lead was 1.5 games (The Mets were 84-68 and the Phillies were 83-70), and even with their horrendous season-ending tailspin, they only dropped 2.5 games in the standings over their last ten games. Hopefully this will provide a measure of comfort!

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303
September 17	83-63	75-71	8	9	32	0.281
September 18	84-63	76-71	8	8	30	0.267
September 19	84-64	77-71	7	8	28	0.286
September 20	84-65	78-71	6	8	26	0.308
September 21	85-65	78-71	6.5	7	25	0.280
September 22	85-66	78-72	6.5	6	23	0.261
September 23	85-67	78-73	6.5	5	21	0.238

Remaining schedule for Mets and Nationals:

	Mets	Nationals
September 24	At Cincinnati	Baltimore
September 25	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 26	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 27	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 28		Cincinnati
September 29	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
September 30	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 1	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 2	Washington	At Mets
October 3	Washington	At Mets
October 4	Washington	At Mets

[Frayed Knot]

We're also within 1964 Phillies distance. That was the year they were 6.5 up with 12 to play yet managed to blow it, thanks to a 10-game losing streak.
The kicker is that they righted the ship just in time to win the final two games against Cincy to knock them out of the pennant.
That all paved the way for the Cards who just had to beat the lowly Mets once in the final three games. But on Friday Al Jackson out-duelled Bob Gibson 1-0, and Saturday saw a 15-5 whoopin'. That forced an all-hands-on-deck game for Sunday which included the Cards bringing back Gibson 4 innings of middle relief two days after his complete game loss. Gibson actually wound up as the winning pitcher in an 11-5 pennant-clinching game which took them to the WS against the Yogi-led Yankees.

[Lefty Specialist]

Boy, I bet Gibson's agent must have been pissed.

[Centerfield]

I am on record being happy with a 7 game lead on Monday morning. 7.5 games Friday morning is much better.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Thursday was more than a good day; it was a very good day. The Orioles completed their three-game sweep at Nationals Park (thanks guys!) in a late afternoon game and the Mets followed that with a win in Cincinnati. The NL East lead goes from 6.5 games to 7.5, with only 9 games remaining. The magic number drops two notches from 5 to 3. The NHOP takes a severe drop to its lowest point of the year, from .238 to .158.

The Mets can still clinch as early as Saturday. As I type this, that's just the day after tomorrow! When you read this, it might actually be tomorrow!

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303
September 17	83-63	75-71	8	9	32	0.281
September 18	84-63	76-71	8	8	30	0.267
September 19	84-64	77-71	7	8	28	0.286
September 20	84-65	78-71	6	8	26	0.308
September 21	85-65	78-71	6.5	7	25	0.280
September 22	85-66	78-72	6.5	6	23	0.261
September 23	85-67	78-73	6.5	5	21	0.238
September 24	86-67	78-74	7.5	3	19	0.158

[Frayed Knot]

Just 3 of 13 games (.231) need to go well in order to end this thing prior to the final series.
Be a bit of a bummer for the players if the clinching occurred with a Washington loss on our Monday off day, although at this point the Nats need some wins and/or some help just to hold it off even that long.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, this thread has just about run its course. The Mets won yesterday and the Nationals lost reducing the magic number to 1. The NHOP is .059. The next time the Mets win or the Nationals lose, the Mets will officially win their sixth National League East title.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303
September 17	83-63	75-71	8	9	32	0.281
September 18	84-63	76-71	8	8	30	0.267
September 19	84-64	77-71	7	8	28	0.286
September 20	84-65	78-71	6	8	26	0.308
September 21	85-65	78-71	6.5	7	25	0.280
September 22	85-66	78-72	6.5	6	23	0.261
September 23	85-67	78-73	6.5	5	21	0.238
September 24	86-67	78-74	7.5	3	19	0.158
September 25	87-67	78-75	8.5	1	17	0.059

[Frayed Knot]

The NHOP is .059

Yeah, but the NHOP to clinch prior to the final series is still way up there at .091



Both games today at 4 PM so it'll be a race to see which game closes things out first.
Or maybe we have to wait until tomorrow.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If the Mets blow this one, I bet Terry's gone.

[Edgy MD]

I calculate that the Mets have a 0.01220703% chance of blowing this, so if I take that bet, you're totally going to have to give me odds.

[Frayed Knot]

Assuming each game is a 50/50 proposition, I put their odds of blowing it at 0.00305175813%

1) Mets lose 5 straight: 0.5^5 = .03125
2) Nats win 6 straight: 0.5^6 = .015625
3) Nats win 4 vs Mets (3 on sked + play-in): 0.5^4 = .0625

The odds of [u:1fo6rkeo]all of those things occurring[/u:1fo6rkeo] is the product of the 3 above steps = .00003051757813 or .00305%

But I think we can all agree that it's teeny small.

[Edgy MD]

I failed to include the extra game the Nats had to win. And I left out the play-in game as well.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: I calculate that the Mets have a 0.01220703% chance of blowing this, so if I take that bet, you're totally going to have to give me odds.

The odds that the 2015 Mets don't make the playoffs is totally irrelevant here.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The NHOP...

is zero.

'Nuff said!

[Edgy MD]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I calculate that the Mets have a 0.01220703% chance of blowing this, so if I take that bet, you're totally going to have to give me odds. The odds that the 2015 Mets don't make the playoffs is totally irrelevant here.

Then I guess we have no bet!

[Frayed Knot]

See now you may think that NHOP has run its usefulness, but you'd be wrong.
The same concept can still be employed in the chase for the better record between us and those Dodgers who used to dodge trolleys but now dodge traffic ... and the occasional bullet during drive-bys.

Yesterday's win coupled with Carlos Gonzalez's walk-off HR in Colorado put us ahead of LA for the first time this September. They have the extra game to play (many sportscasters like to refer to this as "even in the loss column") but we have the advantage of the tie-breaker so merely staying on pace with them gets us the HFA even if they get that 'extra' win. So what this means is that our current 1/2 game up with 7 to play puts the magic number at 7 and the off day on Monday will even up the games remaining (barring rain-outs). 7 games to turn out 'Happy' out of 15 total.

After finishing up in Denver this afternoon, the Dodgers go to SF for 4 games which, even if the NL West is settled by then (LA's Magic # = 2 as we start Sunday), those teams aren't likely to throw in any towels or treat the games as meaningless. Not that Philly is likely to either but it is different when those two get together. Some fans might remember Joe Morgan, then late in his career and playing in a SFG uniform, hitting a HR on the final day of the season to keep the Dodgers from winning the Western Division that year and touching off a celebration in SF even though the Giants had been eliminated the day before and weren't the ones who were going to benefit.*

Date	Mets Record	Dodgers Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
September 26	88-67	87-67	0.5	7	15	0.467
September 27	@ Cincy	@ Colorado			13
September 28	Off Day	@ SFG			12
September 29	@ Philly	@ SFG			10
September 30	@ PHilly	@ SFG			8
October 1	@ Philly	@ SFG			6
October 2	Nationals	Padres			4
October 3	Nationals	Padres			2
October 4	Nationals	Padres			0

* http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN198210030.shtml
Morgan's 3R/2-out clout off of Terry 'Tub of Goo' Forster in the 7th broke up a 2-2 tie. The loss meant the Dodgers finished just 1 game behind Joe Torre's Atlanta Braves (who were losing to SD just as the drama in SF was playing out) in the NL West. The Giants, who had been eliminated when they dropped the previous 2 games to LA, wound up 2 games back. Morgan circled the bases pumping his fist the entire way.

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The NHOP... is zero. 'Nuff said!

It only took 9 years!

[Lefty Specialist]

What's the NHOP for home-field advantage?

[Benjamin Grimm]

See Frayed Knot's post, above.

[Lefty Specialist]

Serves me right for partying too hard last night.

[Frayed Knot]

A good day for HFA clinching purposes. Mets rolled over Cincy (hey, there's got to be someone in the NL Central we can take care of) while the Dodgers continue to lose most of their non Kershaw or Grienke starts. So 5 happy outcomes in the remaining 13 games nails it down.

Off day for the NL East champs. Dodgers head to Frisco and will throw Grienke against the Giants and Jake Peavey. This will be Grieke's first start in ten days as they opted to skip him one trip through the rotation.

Date	Mets Record	Dodgers Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
September 26	88-67	87-67	0.5	7	15	0.467
September 27	89-67	87-68	1.5	5	13	0.385
September 28	Off Day	@ SFG			12
September 29	@ Philly	@ SFG			10
September 30	@ PHilly	@ SFG			8
October 1	@ Philly	@ SFG			6
October 2	Nationals	Padres			4
October 3	Nationals	Padres			2
October 4	Nationals	Padres			0

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Frayed Knot wrote: This will be Grieke's first start in ten days as they opted to skip him one trip through the rotation.

Wait? Other teams handle their ace pitchers gingerly?

[Frayed Knot]

Greinke pitched well -- 7 IP, 2 R, 4 H -- but left on the short end. Dodgers tied it in the 9th but the Giants eventually won in 12.
All of which is good for us. Nice to gain while sitting on our collective butts and one can calculate the NHOP in their head when the MN is 4 with 12 to play.

Date	Mets Record	Dodgers Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
September 26	88-67	87-67	0.5	7	15	0.467
September 27	89-67	87-68	1.5	5	13	0.385
September 28	89-67	87-69	2.0	4	12	0.333
September 29	@ Philadelphia	@ SFG			10
September 30	@ Philadelphia	@ SFG			8
October 1	@ Philadelphia	@ SFG			6
October 2	Nationals	Padres			4
October 3	Nationals	Padres			2
October 4	Nationals	Padres			0

So 4-2 gets us home no matter what goes on out west.
Kershaw vs Bumgarner tonight.