*** Optimism Check ****

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Are the Mets for real? Will they hold on to first place? Or is this the flukiest fluke that ever fluked?

[TransMonk]

I can't answer this question yet. I don't know if the Mets are "for real", but there they are at the top.

The last two games have shown me a lot...but I still think they have some growing to do and the Nats could turn it on at any time. If they can take 3 of 4 from the Jays and then beat up on ATL and MIL...

I cringe when I look at the upcoming schedule in July. Man, that's a tough stretch of playing teams that are all pretty darn good. The Mets are going to have to start beating good teams and not just the bad ones.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Write in: flukiest fluke that ever fluked... but who the fluke knows.

[Gwreck]

Some combination of options above. I don't see first place lasting forever but getting the second wild card spot certainly seems feasible.

[Edgy MD]

Lucas Duda's distant cousin has been elected president of Poland. It's a special year.

[Ceetar]

Can we change this to Pessimism check since the question is phrased rather negatively?


I think they're for real. More importantly, I think the Nationals aren't a 90+ win team. It's maybe worth noting that they were 35-33 on this date last year and finished 96-66. 61-33 after this point. They're not going to do that again. (In part because the Mets aren't going to roll over for them this year)

I'm pre-writing my narrative for this year. David Wright returns 8/1, plays in 50 games, hits .333/.401/.550. Captain America. Harvey allows 4 earned runs in September. Syndergaard strikes out 17 in a game. At some point someone will realize that the Mets threw 9 consecutive innings of no-hit ball over a Syndergaard-Harvey back to backer.

National columnists will fall all over themselves to pick the Mets to win the World Series going into the playoffs.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Gwreck wrote: Some combination of options above. I don't see first place lasting forever but getting the second wild cart spot certainly seems feasible.

I feel more optimistic about the Mets taking the East, because the other divisions are so much stronger that I don't see a team from the East getting either Wild Card.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Ceetar wrote: David Wright returns 8/1, plays in 50 games, hits .333/.401/.550. Captain America. Harvey allows 4 earned runs in September. Syndergaard strikes out 17 in a game. At some point someone will realize that the Mets threw 9 consecutive innings of no-hit ball over a Syndergaard-Harvey back to backer. National columnists will fall all over themselves to pick the Mets to win the World Series going into the playoffs.

If all that happens, it would be quite flukey!

[Guest themetfairy]

I chose Wild Card, because I was thinking on those terms when the season began.

[Lefty Specialist]

They won't win the Wild Card; too many other teams that are better.

They could snag the East, but that would require the season-long cooperation of the Nationals, which I don't think is going to happen.

I'd expect them to fall out of first place by the end of June. They'll have their best year since 2008, but they won't make the playoffs.

[MFS62]

Where's "World Series Champions"?

You gotta' believe.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm not terribly optimistic. This doesn't feel like a championship team to me, but I also don't feel like the wheels are about to come off, as I did in 2010. I think they'll hang in there for a while. If they can stay close and have a strong September, then this could be a 1973 kind of year.

Count me among those who doesn't see a Wild Card in the cards for this year. The division title is their best path the the playoffs. They've already shortened the season, in a way. They no longer have to outplay the Nationals (and the other three teams, of course) over 162 games; they just have to do it over 97 games.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'm gonna barnacle onto Grimm's post. Put me down for a me too on that one. I put down 84-78 and no playoffs in the Predict Mets thread, and about a third into the season, that's still very feasible.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Lefty Specialist wrote: They won't win the Wild Card; too many other teams that are better. They could snag the East, but that would require the season-long cooperation of the Nationals, which I don't think is going to happen. I'd expect them to fall out of first place by the end of June. They'll have their best year since 2008, but they won't make the playoffs.

To a tee. Except I think they tease for a little while longer. Like, flirting with first for a few weeks post-ASB-- enough to precipitate a deadline deal or two-- and then fading a bit as August comes.

[ashie62]

Through labor day but wild card yes.

Need a 3B.

Don't see David coming back.

[Edgy MD]

Thing is, the team we'll see over the summer will have a meaningfully different composition from the team we've seen much of the spring. Even if Wright doesn't ever return, the relaunching of d'Arnaud, Murphy, and Herrera, to say nothing of possible contributions on the pitching staff coming from Syndergaard, Matz, Parnell, Black, Mejia, Leathersich, Blevins, Montero, Carlyle, our guest from A-ball, etc., will define much of the team's fortunes going forward.

That's the better part of a pitching staff right there.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Thing is, the team we'll see over the summer will have a meaningfully different composition from the team we've seen much of the spring. Even if Wright doesn't ever return, the relaunching of d'Arnaud, Murphy, and Herrera, to say nothing of possible contributions on the pitching staff coming from Syndergaard, Matz, Parnell, Black, Mejia, Leathersich, Blevins, Montero, Carlyle, our guest from A-ball, etc., will define much of the team's fortunes going forward. That's the better part of a pitching staff right there.

How could you forget to consider who the Mets might pick up when some other loser teams that aren't the Mets throw in the towel and go into dump mode?

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Color me optimistic.

Barring repeated injuries, the previously injured folks be back. Sandy will grab a hitter in July. Given the weakened state of the East, the powers-that-be must realize this is a chance to smash and grab the division here. I think Thor and soon Matz will improve moving forward just like deGrom did last season.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

My feeling at the beginning was we really couldn't afford injuries to starting position players, and we haven't played well with them out. But even with our guys banged up there's little that indicates this isn't a very winnable division and that a at- or near- full strength Mets team would deserve it.

Also, team will look different in August as we move on from Gee and maybe even Muffy, try new bullpen guys, maybe strengthen the bench with veteran Professional Hitters, etc etc.

[dgwphotography]

This has been one weird season.

I'm in sucked back in mode, but I don't think they can take a Wild Card, there are too many better teams in the other divisions. If the Mets are to make the post-season, they'll have to win the division.

[dgwphotography]

d'Kong76 wrote: Write in: flukiest fluke that ever fluked... but who the fluke knows.

This.

Also, as Monk said, July has the potential to be a hellish month.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I dunno. You guys think the Nats aren't a 90 win team?

[Frayed Knot]

Potentially they are, sure. But they were two years ago too when they sandwiched an 86 win season in between a 98 and a 96.
And right now they're on pace for 83

[Edgy MD]

d'Kong76 wrote: Write in: flukiest fluke that ever fluked... but who the fluke knows.

Sandra Fluke knows.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I was the one who voted "By All-Star Break". I'm certainly more optimistic now than I was in June!

[Edgy MD]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Thing is, the team we'll see over the summer will have a meaningfully different composition from the team we've seen much of the spring. Even if Wright doesn't ever return, the relaunching of d'Arnaud, Murphy, and Herrera, to say nothing of possible contributions on the pitching staff coming from Syndergaard, Matz, Parnell, Black, Mejia, Leathersich, Blevins, Montero, Carlyle, our guest from A-ball, etc., will define much of the team's fortunes going forward. That's the better part of a pitching staff right there. How could you forget to consider who the Mets might pick up when some other loser teams that aren't the Mets throw in the towel and go into dump mode?

Whoah.

[Centerfield]

It looks like I didn't participate in this thread, but in June I was thoroughly convinced that this team would eventually fade and fall out of contention. In fact, I remained convinced of that until they acquired Yoenis Cespedes.

I was also very skeptical that the Mets would, or could, acquire a big bat like Cespedes before the deadline.

Every day I find that a small part of me is still in shock that the Mets own a 6.5 game lead in the division. I am, now, optimistic and hopeful that they can win the division. I can't imagine what a thrill that will be for this team and the fan base. If they are able, through some miracle, to actually win the World Series, I just might spontaneously combust.

[Guest themetfairy]

I was one of the two Wild Card voters.

This team is doing better than I had thought they would.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Centerfield wrote: Every day I find that a small part of me is still in shock that the Mets own a 6.5 game lead in the division.

I got more than a small part of such shock. I'm also wary that late-
season collapses are not so long ago in team history. Day by day,
31 to play!

[Lefty Specialist]

Lefty Specialist wrote: They won't win the Wild Card; too many other teams that are better. They could snag the East, but that would require the season-long cooperation of the Nationals, which I don't think is going to happen. I'd expect them to fall out of first place by the end of June. They'll have their best year since 2008, but they won't make the playoffs.

Well, I stand by what I said, kind of. They won't get the wild card, and they HAVE gotten the season-long cooperation of the Nationals, something I never expected. And it certainly will be the best season since 2008.