Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, you're getting into the heart of the order now, baby. I'm Matt Harvey and I've been chomping at the bit for about 17 months. What's going to happen? How do I know? I know everything, but still I'm boggled. BOGGLED! But I'm a lightning rod, baby. Everybody's got an opinion about me. And about Qualcomm.

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[fimg=500:rxnhvf6z]https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/harveyfinger1.jpg[/fimg:rxnhvf6z]
[fimg=500:rxnhvf6z]http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/02/26/sports/baseball/26harvey/26harvey-superJumbo.jpg[/fimg:rxnhvf6z]

Opinions, man. Opinions are like UCLs. Everybody except R.A. Dickey has one, but some just won't hold up to the challenges that regular usage places on them. What do you think is going to happen to me in 2015? And hey, how 'bout those Rangers?

[Guest themetfairy]

Cy Young Award Winner

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Bad news: He's only the 3rd or 4th best starter on the team this year.

Good news: he wins 14 games.

14-5, 3.43, 190 innings, 28 starts, spends a week or so out of commission with an injury scare but it helps him get to the finish line.

[Edgy MD]

I preferred your prediction from the "Prospect Porn" thread.

My $$ on Big Fat Disappointment, emphasis on "Fat."

[batmagadanleadoff]

Harvey's very high ceiling and comeback attempt from major throwing arm surgery makes for a range of possibilities that is likely broader than that of any other Met. He could be absolutely brilliant again, or suffer a devastating setback. Or anything in between.

Beats the shit out of me. How the fuck would I know?

[dgwphotography]

I hope people don't expect too much from him, because Harvey and his over-inflated ego still have a long road back to be 100%, if he ever will be that again.

I can see him with 10-12 wins, maybe a 12-10 record.

[dgwphotography]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Bad news: He's only the 3rd or 4th best starter on the team this year. Good news: he wins 14 games. 14-5, 3.43, 190 innings, 28 starts, spends a week or so out of commission with an injury scare but it helps him get to the finish line.

If he has a 3.43 ERA, he'll be under .500 with this team's offense.

[batmagadanleadoff]

dgwphotography wrote: I hope people don't expect too much from him, because Harvey and his over-inflated ego still have a long road back to be 100%, if he ever will be that again.

See, that's where you're dead wrong. Harvey's over-inflated ego never sank below 100%. It'll probably be at 400% as soon as he strikes somebody out in Florida.

[Guest cooby classic]

He does something embarrassing.

[dgwphotography]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: dgwphotography wrote: I hope people don't expect too much from him, because Harvey and his over-inflated ego still have a long road back to be 100%, if he ever will be that again. See, that's where you're dead wrong. Harvey's over-inflated ego never sank below 100%. It'll probably be at 400% as soon as he strikes somebody out in Florida.

Niiiice!

[Edgy MD]

With regard to the offense-burdened losing record:

[list:3l1b1oxn]> The Mets scored 3.88 runs per game last year.

> Assumming a typical Harvey start averages seven innings, pitching to a 3.43 ERA, he will yield two innings to the bullpen.

> Assuming the bullpen pitches at the same level as last season, they will function to a 3.14 ERA.

> Assuming Harvey gets standard performance from the Mets bullpen, a typical Harvey start will yield 3.38 earned runs to the other side, combining his performance with that of his relievers.

> Assuming the Mets defense performs at a level comparable to last year's squad, they will yield 0.09 unearned runs for every earned run the team allows.

> Assuming Harvey gets standard performance from his defense (and his strikeout rate should probably allow us to imagine he gets better, but let's be conservative), his typical start should yield 0.31 unearned runs

> Assuming all that falls in line, a typical Harvey start should yield 3.69 runs. (We're using full numbers in the adding but I'm only representing to the hundredths.

> Assuming he gets standard performance from his offense, that will be a lower score than the 3.88 runs they scored last year, suggesting he should have a winning record, given those assumptions and an average amount of luck. A .525 winning percentage.

> Assuming he gets 28 starts, that amounts to something like a 10-9 record, because mean regression is like that, with nine no-decisions. But still, those numbers are enough to suggest he'll out pitch his offense.[/list:u:3l1b1oxn]

We're assuming a lot — including that standard offensive levels will be the same as last year's, which they likely won't, considering that they've moved in the fences on the right side. (This actually would suggest that his 3.43 ERA would have more value.)

So what do you think will abandon him here? it could be the defense, the bullpen, or his luck? But you definitely pin the blame on the offense. Do you think it will get meaningfully worse?

[Benjamin Grimm]

13-10, 3.40.

I don't think he'll ever be as good as he was in 2013, and that's not just because of the surgery.

[Edgy MD]

It'll be because of the blackmail.

[Vic Sage]

9-7, 3.50 ERA. After 25 inconsistent starts, he blows out his elbow again in Early August and needs another surgery. He comes back in 2016, but is never really the same.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Edgy MD wrote: I preferred your prediction from the "Prospect Porn" thread. My $$ on Big Fat Disappointment, emphasis on "Fat."

I think being 4th best pitcher on staff and a 3.43 ERA would be considered a disappointment. I'm not sure how fat he is these days but you can tell he's one of those guys who's vulnerable to it.

[Edgy MD]

Sure, I just liked the tone better. Let's get personal.

My prediction for Dillon Gee is that he'll pitch 68 innings out of the bullpen and smell terribly.

My prediction for Daniel Murphy is that he'll have a personal high in errors and his jokes will be awful.

[dgwphotography]

I'm not sure how fat he is these days but you can tell he's one of those guys who's vulnerable to it.

From Adam Rubin this morning. It could be camera angle, lens distortion, Harvey's posture, or he went on the Sid Fernandez seasonal diet plan. You decide:

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm not sure how fat he is these days but you can tell he's one of those guys who's vulnerable to it.

I was thinking the exact same thing when I saw the picture in the first post to this thread. I'd bet that if Harvey suddenly went sedentary for eight or so months, he'd put on 50 pounds, easily.

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[dgwphotography]

Edgy MD wrote: [fimg=500]https://blog-blogmediainc.netdna-ssl.com/upload/SportsBlogcom/1660342/0792017001422810959_filepicker.jpg[/fimg]

Every time I see this picture, I'm struck by how much Harvey looks like Greg Brady right after Don Drysdale filled his head with visions of the majors...

[MFS62]

16-12 2.89

Later

[smg58]

16-10, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 210 K in 200 IP. I'm bullish.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

dgwphotography wrote: Edgy MD wrote: [fimg=500]https://blog-blogmediainc.netdna-ssl.com/upload/SportsBlogcom/1660342/0792017001422810959_filepicker.jpg[/fimg] Every time I see this picture, I'm struck by how much Harvey looks like Greg Brady right after Don Drysdale filled his head with visions of the majors...

Greg was a complete douche in that episode but Drysdale was also quite stupid. As Robert Reed would ask, "Who wrote this shit?"

[Edgy MD]

Still, that's one of the last Harvey photos I've seen where he doesn't look fat, abrasive, chaw-filled, and/or haughty.

Where he doesn't look like he's got his mook on.

[Edgy MD]

It's a rare episode where Greg gets a VIP visit. Big shot guest stars were usually more concerned with Bobby's or Marcia's maturation/development/emotional health.

Still, in this shot, Drysdale seems honestly concerned with Greg's form.

[metsmarathon]

13-7 2.95 ERA in 180 innings, with 185 k's, better late in the season than early.

[Ceetar]

190.1 IP, 204K, ERA 2.49, All-Star. 47 different mainstream columns written complaining about his bravado. 3 separate incidents where someone takes offense to a comment and it becomes 'a thing'. At least one of these will be Stephen A. Smith. One of these people will complain that he should shut up because he's not their best pitcher despite having an ERA a full point lower than Niese who just happens to have won 4 more games at the time.

Will have 6 doubles on the season, including one that hits just below the top of the wall.

Will have three wins in the playoffs. Will shoot off fireworks from the parade float. Will appear on no less than 10 different prime-time/late-night talk shows after the season, including Stephen Colbert's. Will reference The Jetes (maybe not like that) at least 14 times in referring to the Mets and New York and 'taking back the town' during the season, but will pitch a CG shutout at Yankee Stadium.

[dgwphotography]

Ceetar wrote: 190.1 IP, 204K, ERA 2.49, All-Star. 47 different mainstream columns written complaining about his bravado. 3 separate incidents where someone takes offense to a comment and it becomes 'a thing'. At least one of these will be Stephen A. Smith. One of these people will complain that he should shut up because he's not their best pitcher despite having an ERA a full point lower than Niese who just happens to have won 4 more games at the time. Will have 6 doubles on the season, including one that hits just below the top of the wall. Will have three wins in the playoffs. Will shoot off fireworks from the parade float. Will appear on no less than 10 different prime-time/late-night talk shows after the season, including Stephen Colbert's. Will reference The Jetes (maybe not like that) at least 14 times in referring to the Mets and New York and 'taking back the town' during the season, but will pitch a CG shutout at Yankee Stadium.

F-bsf2x-aeE

[Lefty Specialist]

11-8; 3.56, takes a few breaks during the year and is shut down early. First year back he'll be on a short leash.

[ashie62]

On and off. Finds out pitching MLB ball ain't that easy.

Will scuffle with press

13-9 3.51 era 1.18 comp

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Who's this one, again?