Prospect season - 2014-15

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: when they're opinions formed on actual statistics (And Frayed Knot said similar things in his appraisal too, so it's not like I'm an oddball here) they're bogus. But they're not formed on actual statistics. And that's my only point, Johnny Sarcastico. I wouldn't throw him in the deep end either. He's 20, and the team has a qualified second baseman. But it's just not true to assert that he couldn't hit in his limited showing. It's perfectly OK to say "Oh, shit, I was off there. I still wouldn't hand him a job, considering his age and experience, but he acquitted himself perfectly fine in his big league opportunity, brief as it was." Because that's pretty much what you're saying, minus the "Oh shit" part.

My comment was directed at CF anyway, but you should know by now my default state is Sarcastico.

What I'm saying is that I wouldn't give him a job, based on the raw numbers I saw from him last year, and based on the development track he's been on.

What I'm also saying that from a purely amateurish scouting standpoint, I liked what I saw from him hit-tool-wise. Liking how he physically struck or 'hit' the ball is different than thinking he turned AB into the statistical measurement 'hits' at a good enough rate to be ready to be a major league 2Bman.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: if we just disagreed with your opinions, this would be a worthwhile discussion to have. But what people are trying to point out to you is that you contradict your own "facts" and opinions from one post to the next, so much so that it becomes an infuriating waste of time for all concerned. And now you've devolved into wound-licking victimization, which is the big neon indicator that further debate is fruitless. I'd say "enough already", but you'd just reply to this with another link in your illogical ceetardian chain of thought. So i'm done playing.

clearly you're not.

And in fact, I don't contradict myself. I can't help it if you don't get the nuance.

[Edgy MD]

I'm still missing the "Oh shit" part.

There's no nuance between "He couldn't hit" and "He did hit." Please don't try and suggest the inability to reconcile the irreconcilable is on other people. We're not dumb here. You didn't write, "the statistical measurement 'hits' at a good enough rate to be ready to be a major league 2Bman." You wrote, "Given that he couldn't hit... ."

It's really easy to say, "Yeah, I guess I overstated that."

I more or less agree with you beyond that.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm still missing the "Oh shit" part. There's no nuance between "He couldn't hit" and "He did hit." Please don't try and suggest the inability to reconcile the irreconcilable is on other people. We're not dumb here. You didn't write, "the statistical measurement 'hits' at a good enough rate to be ready to be a major league 2Bman." You wrote, "Given that he couldn't hit... ." It's really easy to say, "Yeah, I guess I overstated that." I more or less agree with you beyond that.

so you're arguing semantics? fine. Oh Shit. I assumed that when I said he couldn't hit it was obvious I meant the statistics. I almost always mean the statistics. hit means 'ball hits grass'. 'contact' means his swing. I never meant to infer Rey Ordonezesque batting ability.

[Edgy MD]

No, I'm not arguing semantics.

Man, you're off the rails.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: No, I'm not arguing semantics. Man, you're off the rails.

fuck it, just trade the guy.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I can just see the headline now: METS DUMP PROSPECT DUE TO FORUM SNIT FIT

[Vic Sage]

SIckels has put 7 mets in his top 100:

"Like most of the major outlets, Sickels is very bullish on the Amazins' system, ranking seven Mets prospects in his top 100 and eight in his top 175. Right-handed pitcher

Noah Syndergaard

once again leads the pack at 13, followed by left-handed pitcher

Steven Matz

at 35. Second baseman

Dilson Herrera

is the first Mets position prospect to make the list, at 41, followed by outfielder

Michael Conforto

at 78, right-handed pitcher

Rafael Montero

at 82, outfielder

Brandon Nimmo

at 83, catcher

Kevin Plawecki

at 92..."

and he notes 3 others:

"... and right-handed pitcher

Marcos Molina

at 152. As if going 175 deep was not enough, Sickels's list also features an extensive section of honorable mentions, which includes Mets infielders

Amed Rosario

and

Jhoan Urena

."

[Frayed Knot]

The inclusion of Sickels' list gives a five list* average of:

1 - Kris Bryant - 3B, Cubs
2 - Byron Buxton - OF, Twins
3 - Carlos Correa - SS, Astros
4 - Addison Russell - SS, Cubs
5 - Lucas Giolito - RHP, Nationals
6 - Corey Seager - SS, Dodgers
7 - Francisco Lindor - SS, Indians
8 - Julio Urias - LHP, Dodgers
9 - Noah Syndergaard
10 - Joey Gallo - 3B, Rangers

45 - Steven Matz
64 - Dilson Herrera
77 - Michael Conforto
79 - Brandon Nimmo
80 - Kevin Plawecki



* Sickels, BA, BP, MLB (Jonathan Mayo), ESPN (Keith Law)

[Edgy MD]

Francisco Lindor is interesting. He's kept rising up the prospect charts for four years, despite not having one standout season or flashing one standout tool. And then you realize "Oh, he's, like, kinda good at everything. And he's very good that way."

I guess he's like d'Arnaud. Or even Wright. And he's been young for his league all the way through.

Checking his profile now, he's been between four and seven years younger than the mean of his league all the way up. Playing with the big kids, just being average has been outstanding.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Mets Dominate List. Where have I read that before?



[fimg=644]https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7645/16670490559_0025d7b589_o.jpg[/fimg]

[nymr83]

Edgy MD wrote: Francisco Lindor is interesting. He's kept rising up the prospect charts for four years, despite not having one standout season or flashing one standout tool. And then you realize "Oh, he's, like, kinda good at everything. And he's very good that way." I guess he's like d'Arnaud. Or even Wright. And he's been young for his league all the way through. Checking his profile now, he's been between four and seven years younger than the mean of his league all the way up. Playing with the big kids, just being average has been outstanding.

SEVEN years younger? i guess that was AAA as a result of the league average being skewed by veterans who arent "prospects"? thats just damn impressive

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, that's playing in AAA at 20, but like Reyes (or Dilson Herrera), he's been typically among the youngest two or three guys in his league.

But even a little moreso.

[Frayed Knot]

His time in AAA skewed those numbers a bit, but he's still been between 3.5 and 5.5 years young for his league since breaking into pro ball with the NYP League as a 17 y/o in 2011. And that's all helped him be a top-50 prospect each year since pre-2012.
The word on Lindor is that he's long had ML-ready defense plus a promising enough (esp given the age) amount of offense to believe that, even if the hitting never progressed as hoped, his defense alone was would be enough make him a regular ML SS.

I also didn't realize he was a draft pick (same year as Nimmo - 5 picks earlier though nearly 8 months younger). I guess I just assumed he was an int'l player but rather is a Puerto Rican who came through Florida.
That leaves only Urias, a Mexican, out of that top 10 who is an Int'l FA and he already has 43 pro starts under his belt even though he won't turn 19 until August.

[Frayed Knot]

A bit of a fluff is developing around #1 prospect (acc to this "consensus") Kris Bryant with his agent, Scott Boras not surprisingly, calling out the Cubs and MLB in general for what he assumes will be the Cubs' strategy of keeping Bryant in the minors for at least the first 12 days of the season so as to delay his FA eligibility for an extra year (a topic we also talked about in the Zack Wheeler thread).
Bryant leads all MLB thus far with 6 ST HRs and is hitting .435 while doing it (10/23). For their part, the Cubs are claiming that Theo Epstein's timetable for Bryant is in no way dictated but ownership nor do I believe they've specifically stated that they're not going to bring him up for opening day.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Some bonerific reviews of the young guys recently in Baseball Prospectus, though sounds like Dom Smith, his crappy attitude and his fat ass are on a one-way train to Bustville.

Spring Training Notebook: Grapefruit League March 19, 2015 by Jeff Moore Throughout March, the BP Prospect Team is invading both Arizona and Florida to get some fresh looks at players as they prepare for their 2015 assignments. Between now and the start of the minor league season, they�ll be providing updates (and videos) on the prospects you know and love�and quite a few that you may not. Amed Rosario, SS, Mets Known for his glove, and rightly so, Rosario remains as smooth as ever in the field and more than capable of remaining at shortstop for the duration of his career. His long strides lead to plus range, and a quick easy release and strong arm should make him a plus defender at a premium position. There is plenty of time for his bat to catch up to his glove, given that he�s barely dipped a toe into the full-season waters, but it�s going to take major strides in overhauling his swing. Its current iteration involves far too much movement and a significant weight shift that will give him issues against the better breaking balls he has yet to see. Lastly, at just 19, it�s unsurprising that he�ll need to add weight to ever drive the baseball with any authority, but his frame isn�t one that�s built to support a significant weight gain. He can get stronger, but he�s likely to always be thin. Jhoan Urena, 3B, Mets Soon to be the jewel of the Mets system, this was my third look at Urena and he gets more impressive with each rendition. Still just 20 and slated for his first taste of full-season ball this year, Urena was clearly the best player on any of the four backfields early in spring training, with most top major-league ready prospects still in major-league camp. Our write-up in the Mets top 10 list said �The knock on Urena is a body that doesn�t really look the part and offers some concerns on how it is going to progress into his mid-20s,� but my first look in 2015 already negates that concern. Gone is last year�s baby fat, replaced by muscle and good weight. Urena has gone from soft to svelte and even more raw power has followed, as he put on a show in batting practice, hitting a far-off shed and frightening maintenance workers. He uses a pronounced leg-kick from both sides of the plate, and while his swing is slightly longer from the left side it also features more natural uppercut. He�s built to drive the baseball and attacks it as such. His body change should increases his chances at staying at third base, and while he might never be an above-average defender or have plus range, he has the hands and arm to remain there. Luis Guillorme, SS, Mets There�s a good chance Guillorme never hits enough to play on a regular basis, but putting plus grades on his glove is about as easy as scouting gets. He�s the epitome of smooth, and ideal baseball actions and a plus arm that can play anywhere in the infield. There�s no power in his swing and not much projection left in his 20-year-old frame, but the glove/arm combo is good enough to carve out a role. Michael Conforto, OF, Mets Solid is the best way to describe Conforto, in almost every aspect. A solid build and solid collection of tools project him to be a solid major leaguer. There�s not a lot of flash in his game, nor is their a ton of room for growth, but the close-to-finished product has a high floor and a slew of usable, average tools that make for a future everyday player. His frame isn�t long, which, coupled with a two-hand finish, keeps his swing compact and direct to the ball. There is some natural uppercut lift in the swing that should generate some carry and lead to average over-the-fence power. He won�t wow you with tools, and most of his value is riding on his bat, but he should provide enough to carry him to a nice, long career. Dominic Smith, 1B, Mets Batting practice is Smith�s time to shine, as it allows him to show off his plus raw power that has been otherwise stymied during game action since turning pro. The difference is in the approach. In practice, Smith looks to drive the ball. In games, he does not. A passive approach leads to passive swings instead of attacking the baseball. The good news is that the bat speed is still present. The bad news is that he shows little interest in making adjustments, or much else that�s taking place on the field around him. His body is already worse than it was this time last year, a major concern for a 19-year-old already limited to first base, but his body language may be even worse. Smith had his struggles last year in Savannah, admittedly an incredibly tough place for power hitters, but the Florida State League won�t be much easier this season, so he�ll need to start producing regardless of hitting environment. Additional Notes You know Wuilmer Becerra (Mets) as the last guy from the R.A. Dickey trade that you hadn�t heard of, but now he�s 20 and will be heading to full season ball with still raw abilities but has tremendous raw power

[Edgy MD]

Urena has gone from soft to svelte and even more raw power has followed, as he put on a show in batting practice, hitting a far-off shed and frightening maintenance workers.

How cinematic! I may print this quote out a few dozen times and paper my cube with it.

Urena didn't make mlb.com's top-ten-by-position lists, making third base the first position in which the Mets got shut out. I'm hoping this made him angry.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I saw Urena at Brooklyn last year and was impressed. He's a fireplug kind of build, switch hitter, and really tagged one for a double.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

A svelte fireplug, though, right?

The relentless, hyperfocused talk about bodies never ceases to creep me out.

[Edgy MD]

Bryant farmed out and irate.
Union wants to litigate.

[Vic Sage]

Bryant farmed out and irate. Union wants to litigate.

yeah i heard about that. It's complete bullshit.

No player or union can tell a team when they should or should not promote a player to a higher league, whatever their reason. Unless there is something in the CBA that requires such decisions be based on their best baseball judgment, not economic considerations. But I doubt the CBA does, though, because how could you possible prove intent? And how can you say the economic and baseball issues are unrelated... doesn't it increase a team's chance of winning over the long run if they're able to keep their best players for longer, before they become so expensive that they either lose them or keep them but are circumscribed in other moves they can make to improve the team? I would think the union would have to prove that the extra money a team saves if a star player reaches arbitration / FA 1 year later would not have otherwise be spent to improve the team's ability to win, but would instead go into the owner's pocket (as if that were a violation of the CBA).

I am so rarely on the owner's side of any issue, but this is one i think is purely agent-driven. The union had the reserve clause struck down, and then won the right to arbitrate early in their careers. They have rightly gained the freedom and leverage they sought. But they don't also get to dictate to a GM who stays on the 25-man roster, or how many starts, or save opportunities, or ABs, a manager gives to a particular player, unless the union gets that right through a new CBA.... and good luck to them with THAT.

[Frayed Knot]

... Unless there is something in the CBA that requires such decisions be based on their best baseball judgment, not economic considerations. But I doubt the CBA does, though, because how could you possible prove intent?

Actually I think there IS some language in the CBA about how demotions have to be done for baseball reasons, or at least how they CAN'T be done strictly for manipulation of service time which is certainly what this smells like. But of course you then run into the second part of your statement about how one goes about proving it.
One thing that would add to the union's position in any theoretical litigation would be if Bryant is called up exactly on the day that would delay his FA time for an extra year so I'm betting we don't see that.

[Edgy MD]

The thing is that exact day is something akin to guesswork.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: The thing is that exact day is something akin to guesswork.

you're thinking of the Super 2 nitration date. The service time calendar is mapped out pretty precisely.

[Edgy MD]

That's true. The super 2 concern is first but hardly foremost, especially when it comes to hitters.

[Ceetar]

how did I change arbitration into nitration? is it because I was half-writing a BeerGraphs post about the Old Howling Bastard I had on nitro last weekend?

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: how did I change arbitration into nitration? is it because I was half-writing a BeerGraphs post about the Old Howling Bastard I had on nitro last weekend?

Or maybe your spellcheck program was drinking.

The arbitration cut off is the one that's speculative (usually around 1/3 of the season) but it's also less important. If Bryant turns out to be as good as everyone hopes then what he's going to be paid in year 3 of his career is relatively small potatoes in the grand scheme of things, particularly when compared to the question of being a FA or not in year 7. Plus if he's that good year 3 will probably be over-ridden by a multi-year deal which will cover those carb-years anyway.

As far as how things work for FA purposes: the ML season, for accounting purposes, is 182 days long, but players who are on the roster for at least 170 of them get credit for one full year which is where the 12 days thing kicks in. And once a player misses those 12 days there's no way to make them up; no way to earn 'extra credit' so to speak for being active in all 182 days in subsequent years.

[Frayed Knot]

Back to prospect rankings for a minute: John Sickels ranks the Mets system as 6th best in MLB

6) New York Mets: There isn�t quite as much star potential here [as compared to the upper five] but there is a LOT of solid talent especially on the pitching side (Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz). Catcher Kevin Plawecki, outfielder Brandon Nimmo, second baseman Dilson Herrera, and 2014 first-rounder Michael Conforto all project as regulars. There are several potential fourth starters and relief options. This is clearly a system on the upswing. Last year: 12th



http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/4/1/8268303/minor-league-balls-2015-mlb-farm-system-rankings-sickels

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: ... Unless there is something in the CBA that requires such decisions be based on their best baseball judgment, not economic considerations. But I doubt the CBA does, though, because how could you possible prove intent? Actually I think there IS some language in the CBA about how demotions have to be done for baseball reasons, or at least how they CAN'T be done strictly for manipulation of service time which is certainly what this smells like. But of course you then run into the second part of your statement about how one goes about proving it. One thing that would add to the union's position in any theoretical litigation would be if Bryant is called up exactly on the day that would delay his FA time for an extra year so I'm betting we don't see that.

Or maybe we do. Bryant called up to the big club, will make ML debut this afternoon at Wrigley.

[MFS62]

Forget about Bryant!
Was told the Mets are bringing up Muno, but no confirmation/ link yet.

edit - here's a link;
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/4/17/8438899/mets-daniel-muno-las-vegas-51s-promoted

Later