Prospect season - 2014-15

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball Prospectus begins with the NL East this year so they chime in first:

1 - RHP Noah Syndergaard
2 - LHP Steven Matz
3 - OF Brandon Nimmo
4 - SS Amed Rosario
5 - C Kevin Plawecki
6 - 2B Dilson Herrera
7 - RHP Marcos Molina
8 - 1B Dominic Smith
9 - OF Michael Conforto
10 - 3B Jhoan Urena



Scouting reports hidden behind the pay wall. Some details discussed in comments section.

[Edgy MD]

It's a good thing we don't have a porn filter, or that list would have been blocked.

[Frayed Knot]

John Sickels posts his NYM list (with BA's due out tomorrow).
I generally look forward to this review above any others. Not that he's any more likely to be right than anyone else but because he'll go beyond just ten deep, and that he assigns grades and descriptions that go beyond just an ordinal list, and the fact that none of it is hidden behind a pay wall helps too.


1) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Age 22, 4.60 ERA with 145/43 K/BB in 133 innings in Triple-A, 154 hits.
I don�t think there is anything wrong with Syndergaard that getting out of the PCL/Las Vegas won�t cure. Velocity continues to increase, curve continues to improve, just needs to prove that minor health issues aren�t precursor to anything major.

2) Steven Matz, LHP, Grade B+: Age 23, 2.24 ERA with 131/35 K/BB in 141 innings between High-A and Double-A.
Great story on Tommy John recovery, power lefty arm with good command, fastball well into the 90s now. Terrific complement to Syndergaard.

3) Dilson Herrera, 2B, Grade B+: Age 20. Hit .323/.379/.479 with 13 homers, 23 steals, 47/96 BB/K in 524 at-bats in High-A/Double-A.
His reputation is growing but if anything he may still be under-estimated.

4) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B/Borderline B+: Age 21, hit .322/.448/.458 in High-A but just .238/.339/.396 in Double-A.
I love Nimmo�s on-base abilities and overall approach, but I am hesitant to go full-bore B+ or higher at this time due to serious platoon split problems. For now I have Herrera ahead, which is likely a minority view. That should be seen as praise for Herrera, not any disrespect towards Nimmo, who is one of my favorite prospects.

5) Kevin Plawecki, C, Grade B: Age 23, hit .309/.365/.460 between Double-A and Triple-A.
Just a solid all-around prospect, not deadly against bsaerunners but otherwise very skilled on defense, not a big home run hitter but should maintain solid average and OBP with gap power. Great backup for Travis d�Arnaud, can start if necessary. He would also make attractive trade bait.

6) Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade B: Age 24.
People seem a little down on him but I�m not really sure why: he�s pitched very well in the difficult environment of Las Vegas and the PCL (3.31 ERA in 169 innings, 158/59 K/BB, 154 hits), and while he doesn�t have blistering stuff, the complete package has always played up. He needs to adapt his command to the majors but he could be the Jake Odorizzi of 2015. I think there is some prospect fatigue with this one, everyone looking for shiny new toys and overlooking a guy who has always gotten the job done.

7) Michael Conforto, OF, Grade B: Age 21.
Very advanced college hitter with above-average power and good strike zone judgment, should not need very long in the minors. Hit .331/.403/.448 in New York-Penn League. Athleticism may be underrated but his defense still needs polish, which is OK if he hits as expected.

8) Marcos Molina, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Age 19,
Flavor of the Month after dominant turn in the New York-Penn League (1.77 ERA, 91/18 K/BB in 76 innings, 46 hits), impeccable statistically with good reports on mid-90s fastball and change-up, breaking stuff still needs some work and we need to see what kind of workload he can handle. With Syndergaard and Montero likely graduating to the majors in 2015, Molina could be top of the list next year.

9) Amed Rosario, SS, Grade B-/Borderline B. Age 19, hit .289/.337/.380 in NY-P.
Scouting reports and defense are ahead of his offensive production at this point, hardly atypical for his age of course. High ceiling with both bat and glove, needs work with the strike zone and defensive reliability. Like Molina, could shoot to the top of the list next year.

10) Jhoan Urena, 3B, Grade B-: Age 20, switch-hitter from Dominican Republic hit .300/.356/.431 in the NY-P with 20 doubles.
Long-term defense and future home run production are unanswered questions, but there is a lot to like here. Mets fans are aware of him but he is just now earning national attention.


See more via the link including prospects 11-20, an overall assessment of the system as a whole, and (as time goes on) comments and discussion from the prospect nerds who frequent that site, comments which can range from insightful to downright silly.

[Edgy MD]

Open Conforto in St. Lucie, you think?

[smg58]

I think Montero's stock has suffered a bit because he didn't make a good first impression here -- which is ironic, because Thor didn't pitch well enough to make any first impression here. I'm still bullish on him.

I'm not one for jumping guys past a level unless they were spectacular, and Conforto's .851 OPS in rookie ball says "maybe" more than "hell yes." Molina was spectacular, but he's at an age where I'd be careful unless he forces me to think otherwise.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Montero looked to me like a guy who was scared to death at first but also trying not to look that way, and the preoccupation intefered with his mojo. We might get a better idea of what he's all about when he chills a little.

[Edgy MD]

smg58 wrote: I think Montero's stock has suffered a bit because he didn't make a good first impression here -- which is ironic, because Thor didn't pitch well enough to make any first impression here. I'm still bullish on him. I'm not one for jumping guys past a level unless they were spectacular, and Conforto's .851 OPS in rookie ball says "maybe" more than "hell yes." Molina was spectacular, but he's at an age where I'd be careful unless he forces me to think otherwise.

I don't really think of Brooklyn-to-St. Lucie as necessarily skipping. It's more of a half skip.

Brooklyn doesn't seem higher than Savannah, so much as a short-season version of the same level of competition.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Open Conforto in St. Lucie, you think?

You would think that a top-drafted player from a major college program would be able to handle it. Not sure if blowing him past low-A Savannah even qualifies as 'skipping a level' as the org sometimes uses a start in Brooklyn as more of a brief showcase than anything.



Montero: What we have to remember about Montero is that he went from the DSL to the majors in three years so some adjustment period is to be expected.
He even looked as if he was starting to settle down very late in the season.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I expect Montero is likely to be traded. When someone asks for Syndergaard, Sandy will say no, but how about Montero? Some will say no thanks, but I think eventually someone will say okay.

[Frayed Knot]

The comments section got an extra thumbnail sketch for Matt Reynolds who was left off of a top-20 although (another reason I like Sickels) he warns folks not to pay too much attention to the exact order as the similar grades guy in the 10-20 guys are pretty much indistinguishable from each other. And that there are more C+ or better grades (he rates C+ as an above average prospect) than could fit into the top 20 is in itself a good sign.

Anyway, on Reynolds: he is not really a .343 hitter (his 2014 avg) but he�s not really a .226 hitter, either (2013). In college he was projected to be a solid utility player who could hit .260-.270 with enough gap power and OBP to be helpful. Although he�s yo-yoed from season to season so far, the overall career line is exactly within those expectations. Defensively, he�s reliable in terms of avoiding errors and is no butcher at shortstop, but his range fits best at second base. Grade C+.

[MFS62]

I think the Baseball America list is due out today, but haven't seen it yet.
OE: Here it is:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-new-york-mets-top-10-prospects/

No new insight there.

Later

[Vic Sage]

they include Cecchini over Uhrena; otherwise same top 10.

[Frayed Knot]

Q & A session on that list here

[Frayed Knot]

Some answers from that Q&A involving IF prospects:

** Gavin Cecchini doesn�t have a carrying tool, but the 20-year-old shortstop also has no glaring weakness. He put in the work last offseason to add strength and it paid off with more power production in 2014. Plus as the Mets note, Cecchini improved his offensive production at both Low-A Savnnah and High-A St. Lucie after an initial adjustment period, e.g. he logged a .355 OBP and 25/22 BB/SO ratio over 47 games from mid-July to the end of the FSL season. He doesn�t switch-hit or show plus speed, so he profiles better as a starter at shortstop or second base rather than a utility infielder.

** L.J. Mazzilli, a fourth-rounder in 2013, has improved his defense from poor to passable as he climbed from college ball in 2013 to High-A St. Lucie in 2014. He has hit at every stop, including the Arizona Fall League, so the Mets view him as an offensive second baseman in the making. He just missed this year�s [team] top 30, but he�s a prospect.

** I see Dilson Herrera as a starting second baseman on a good team. Maybe he�s just shy of all-star level, but I would expect a high AVG and plenty of gap power. He ranks ahead of C Kevin Plawecki on our list because he fits his positional profile a bit better. In other words, Herrera�s strengths (hit, field, power) are exactly what big league teams seek from regular second basemen.


also, projects "five to seven" from the NYM list to crack the overall Top-100 and sees the system over "definitely in the top-10" and "could make a case for" them being top five.

[Edgy MD]

I see Dilson Herrera as a starting second baseman on a good team.

I'm struggling over whether or not to infer the words "this season" in this statement. The question seemed to be talking about the present status.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think assuming "this season" is probably a stretch. My guess for Dilson is that they'll keep in in Las Vegas until May (the usual ploy to delay arbitration and free agency) especially since, with Murphy likely to at least start the season as a Met, they won't need to rush him.

Where he's at in July or August is anyone's guess. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Dilson start 2016 as the Mets regular second baseman.

[Ceetar]

Given that he couldn't hit in his limited showing last year, and hasn't played at AAA at all, yeah, this season is a stretch.

[Vic Sage]

All-Prospect lineup:

Nimmo CF
Rosario SS
Herrera 2b
Conforto LF
plawecki c
Uhrena 3b
Beccera RF
D.Smith 1b

Edited December 17, 2014 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Given that he couldn't hit in his limited showing last year, and hasn't played at AAA at all, yeah, this season is a stretch.

Outhit Flores. Outhit Campbell. Outhit Brown. Outhit den Dekker.

Heck, going by his rates, he outhit a bunch of starters --- Lagares, Young, Tejada, and Wright (WRIGHT!) --- so I wouldn't conclude at all that he couldn't hit. He hit the ball hard. A .710 from a 20-year-old is sweet.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: Given that he couldn't hit in his limited showing last year, and hasn't played at AAA at all, yeah, this season is a stretch. Outhit Flores. Outhit Campbell. Outhit Brown. Outhit den Dekker. Heck, going by his rates, he outhit a bunch of starters --- Lagares, Young, Tejada, and Wright (WRIGHT!) --- so I wouldn't conclude at all that he couldn't hit. He hit the ball hard. A .710 from a 20-year-old is sweet.

Well, small sample and all. and it was .625 before he had 1 good game at the end and then didn't play again. (Did he get hurt? I'm blanking.)

He did hit the ball hard. Nice solid contact when he connected, which is what boosted the SLG. But he didn't hit it enough. It wasn't an overall good performance.

Not to say I wasn't very encouraged by what I saw though. Solid contact, and the ability to draw walks. Didn't embarrass himself as a 20 year old. Very encouraging. Definitely not ready as I see it. Wouldn't be surprised if he only needs another 20-30 games though, and certainly if he was a SS I'd almost say just give them to him at the Major League level.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Well, small sample and all.

Interesting that it's a meaningful sample when you conclude that he didn't hit, but it's too small when that is demonstrated to be untrue.

and it was .625 before he had 1 good game at the end and then didn't play again.

The bottom line is the bottom line.

(Did he get hurt? I'm blanking.)

Yes. Hurt his quad.

He did hit the ball hard. Nice solid contact when he connected, which is what boosted the SLG.

You say the opposite above.

But he didn't hit it enough. It wasn't an overall good performance.

Extrapolated for 162 games, that's 27 homers and 99 RBI. What does enough look like?

Not to say I wasn't very encouraged by what I saw though. Solid contact, and the ability to draw walks. Didn't embarrass himself as a 20 year old.

Again, you say above that he didn't hit at all.

Very encouraging. Definitely not ready as I see it.

Definitely? You didn't even recall that he got hurt? How can anybody be definite?

Wouldn't be surprised if he only needs another 20-30 games though...

How do you get from definitely not ready to possibly needing only 20-30 games?

I don't know what he is. I just disagree that he didn't hit at all. He did, certainly.

[Ceetar]

you're just arguing to argue. The default state is 'not good enough for the Major Leagues' because it's hard.

I was convinced, based on what I saw, that he wasn't ready. He didn't hit enough. Maybe all he needed was 20-30 more games of reps. That he hit at all is obvious, yes, he had 13 hits. But he hit .220. Yes, 27 HR from a MI would be very nice and maybe even enough to sorta excuse a .303 OBP, but the correlation of a guys first 66 PA to an overall season is pretty low.

But that stat line, his overall progression in development (no AAA) and the current state of the team overall, I'm comfortable saying he didn't hit enough in his 66 trips to the plate for me to think he's ready to be a regular player on the 2015 Mets.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: you're just arguing to argue.

I like to think I'm advocating for facts.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: I see Dilson Herrera as a starting second baseman on a good team. I'm struggling over whether or not to infer the words "this season" in this statement. The question seemed to be talking about the present status.

Yeah, fans tend to think more short term whereas the BA staff is geared towards taking the longer view especially since whether or not he's in the starting lineup depends on so many other factors.

My guess for Dilson is that they'll keep in in Las Vegas until May (the usual ploy to delay arbitration and free agency) especially since, with Murphy likely to at least start the season as a Met, they won't need to rush him.

Keep in mind that he already has 31 days of ML service time under his belt so, strictly from a FA/arb clock POV, the math changes on him vs someone like say Syndergaard who has yet to play.



I think he can use some AAA time myself - on account of the lack of upper-minors ABs (<300 above A-ball), the low BA, and the nearly 30% K-rate during his short stint.
And mainly there's the incumbent(s). I suspect that come April we'll either have Muffy still on the team OR we'll a new SS which allows Flores to play 2B. Either way the path is, at least temporarily, blocked.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: I see Dilson Herrera as a starting second baseman on a good team. I'm struggling over whether or not to infer the words "this season" in this statement. The question seemed to be talking about the present status.

He said "good team". He's obviously not talking about this season, unless, wait...OMG HERRERA'S GOING TO BE TRADED.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: you're just arguing to argue. I like to think I'm advocating for facts.

You'd like to think so. What you are actually doing is wasting your time.

You're arguing with someone who argues simultaneously that:

*He did not hit at all during the time that he was here.

*He hit the ball hard. Nice contact.

*It still was not good enough.

*Well, maybe. I guess if you project those numbers over a full season, he hit good enough. But how can you draw conclusions on such a small sample size?

*He is definitely not ready for the majors.

*But he may only need 20-30 more games in the minors.

[Vic Sage]

forget it, Edge... it's Chinatown.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: you're just arguing to argue. I like to think I'm advocating for facts. You'd like to think so. What you are actually doing is wasting your time. You're arguing with someone who argues simultaneously that: *He did not hit at all during the time that he was here. *He hit the ball hard. Nice contact. *It still was not good enough. *Well, maybe. I guess if you project those numbers over a full season, he hit good enough. But how can you draw conclusions on such a small sample size? *He is definitely not ready for the majors. *But he may only need 20-30 more games in the minors.

I forgot the facts only matter when they're your facts. when they're opinions formed on actual statistics (And Frayed Knot said similar things in his appraisal too, so it's not like I'm an oddball here) they're bogus.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: when they're opinions formed on actual statistics (And Frayed Knot said similar things in his appraisal too, so it's not like I'm an oddball here) they're bogus.

But they're not formed on actual statistics. And that's my only point, Johnny Sarcastico.

I wouldn't throw him in the deep end either. He's 20, and the team has a qualified second baseman. But it's just not true to assert that he couldn't hit in his limited showing.

It's perfectly OK to say "Oh, shit, I was off there. I still wouldn't hand him a job, considering his age and experience, but he acquitted himself perfectly fine in his big league opportunity, brief as it was." Because that's pretty much what you're saying, minus the "Oh shit" part.

[Vic Sage]

if we just disagreed with your opinions, this would be a worthwhile discussion to have. But what people are trying to point out to you is that you contradict your own "facts" and opinions from one post to the next, so much so that it becomes an infuriating waste of time for all concerned. And now you've devolved into wound-licking victimization, which is the big neon indicator that further debate is fruitless. I'd say "enough already", but you'd just reply to this with another link in your illogical ceetardian chain of thought. So i'm done playing.